In a significant shift from his previous rhetoric, John Howard has rekindled the Liberal leadership fires:
John Howard has declared he is “not planning on going anywhere” and predicts he can beat Kim Beazley at the next election.
In comments that will anger his Treasurer and heir apparent, Peter Costello, Mr Howard said he was “not planning my post-prime ministerial life”.
Asked in an interview with News Limited newspapers if he could beat Mr Beazley a third time, Mr Howard said: “Yes, I’d hope so. Try.”
Mr Costello is said by supporters to be already agitated by Mr Howard’s refusal to signal a handover of the leadership, and could be expected to reconsider his position as Liberal Party deputy.
The balls in Costello’s court, I’d suggest. But I’d be surprised if he runs with it.
Elsewhere: Tim Dunlop makes a similar argument:
In fact, at this stage anyway, the real leadership battle of interest is the one inside the Liberal Party. Well, actually, there is no battle, but the PM’s announcement today does mean Peter Costello is going to have to decide what he wants to do.
I’m not going to endlessly glean the permutations of a challenge versus quitting versus staying put; suffice it to say that whatever course he takes he is going to look like the beaten, second-rater that many already believe him to be (short of an unlikely victory, of course).
So really, for reasons of self-esteem, he needs to mount a challenge, to at least have a go. A noble loss after a doomed tilt followed by a quick retirement might be his best option.
Elsewhere: saint has some extensive commentary.
Come on - has anyone really thought (bar a few costello diehards) the rodent is going to give it away?
As Mark says the only real surprise here is that Howard has made such a strong statement publicly.
The irony of it all is that the one and only thing that I think will dislodge Howard in the medium term is big economic trouble - someting which may fall back on the Man who has been treasurer for years.
Like all leaders at the helm for so long, the feeling of invincibility sets in. Caucescu of Rumania, Jo Blelke, Fraser, Hawke, Chamberlain, the list goes on and on with Ming the Merciless as the noticeable exception. Hubris as they say is inevitably followed by nemesis but doubtless Johnny considers himself the exception. Roll on the inevitable humiliation for criminal garbage.
I don’t think Howard really expects to last until the next election. He’s just telling us he doesn’t see Costello as a natural successor, and prompting the anti-Costello forces to sort out who they’re going to run with. But I’m not so sure Costello won’t make a move — the Safety Net rollback and IVF limits are budget measures that seem to be designed to put Abbott in a tight spot with the voters.
A political genius said on TA they would carry out howard in a pinebox before he hands over to anyone.
I stand by that however I think Costello will be PM before the next election because i think like bob hawke he will eventually get on the nose.
however unlike keating I can’t see costello beating anyone in the next election.
In place of ze trackback.
The rodent ain’t going nowhere unless Bomber pulls off a miracle at the next poll, or the former puts in a bit too much effort when jogging one morning…
Howard of course is doing the usual backaway maneouvre, but this really does make Costello look pathetic. Howard also - to my knowledge - hasn’t explained how his statements were “misinterpreted”.
There’s definitely a fair bit of jockeying going on - Rob’s right about Costello and Abbott, and Nelson is doing his accustomed hyperactive self-promotion thing.
The ball can hardly be in Costello’s court when Howard has both of Costello’s happily stashed away for safe keeping.
Howard ain’t going anywhere. And if he can help it, neither can Costello. I think the fireworks will come if Howard does not give Costello another portfolio (”anything but Foreign Affairs” as he put it).
costello , like Keating with Hawke, cannot challenge howard until he looks like a better person to win votes than Howard.
It took fightback for Hawke to look like he didn’t have a clue after winning an election they shouldn’t have in 1990.
There are few in the Liberal party who believe Costello is better than Howard at present.
My guess is that this wil change as the circumstances change between now and the next election.
Mind you at least the public thought Keating had a vision.does anyone really think Costello has?
Costello has a vision of Costello PM, Homer - that’s about as far as it goes, I think!