Archive for May, 2005

The Politics of Schapelle Corby

The media circus surrounding Schapelle Corby has taken a political turn in the last week. Howard’s letter has been seen (probably correctly when interpreted in conjunction with his public comments) as a populist move to capitalise on public belief in her innocence. Beazley’s also jumped on that particular bandwagon. Meanwhile, The Australian has been running some sort of campaign to insinuate that there’s some significance in the criminal histories of Corby’s family:

A lawyer for Schapelle Corby has criticised publication of details of the criminal record of some members of her family less than a week before an Indonesian court hands down its verdict in her drug-smuggling case.

Robin Tampoe said publicising the fact that Corby’s half-brother, Clinton Rose, was in prison and her father, Michael Corby, had had a conviction in the 1970s for marijuana possession was “designed to inflict some sort of damage”.

There’s also been controversy over an alleged intervention by NSW Young Liberals President, Alex Hawke, claiming that the only pro-Corby party is the Liberals, though Hawke claims this is a case of identity theft. The fact that the apparent hoax was widely believed, though, is a clear pointer to the politicisation of the passions aroused by the Corby case.

There are a number of disturbing aspects to this hyper-mediatised politicisation of justice. One is the misrepresentation of the integrity of the Indonesian legal system. It’s a worry that this would seemingly have led to a lesser rate of donations for Tsunami aid, no doubt because of the stereotypes about Indonesia that this sort of attitude reinforces (and originally derives from). It’s also concerning that, as Richard Ackland argues, Howard has cynically exploited public sentiment while showing zero concern for other Australians caught up in foreign justice systems such as David Hicks, who are blithely dismissed as terrorists until proven innocent (the same onus of proof that’s said to be un-Australian when applied to Corby by Indonesian law). And finally, it’s hard (for once) not to agree with Philip Ruddock that all this publicity is probably prejudicial to Corby’s defence.

The Sydney Morning Herald poses a question worth thinking about in a recent editorial:

Let us imagine a young Indonesian woman is on trial in an Australian court. If guilty, she will be sentenced to life in prison. Her case touches the fears of many Indonesians about Australia, its attitudes and court practices. Will she get a fair trial? What if the Australian justice system, so alien to Indonesians, is corrupt? Indonesian public opinion is strongly behind the young woman. The country’s leaders feel they must take a public stand and starting with the president, begin none-too-subtle heavying of the Australian judge. Imagine this possibility and ask: how would Australians react?

It would have been nice to think that the media (particularly Channel Nine with its tacky Ray Martinesque brand of sensationalist nationalism) and pollies might have kept their traps shut on this one. But I suppose the temptation of exploiting a young and attractive Australian woman incarcerated in Bali proved too much.

Elsewhere: News from Nowhere discerns a right wing split on Corby.

Hendo meets Downer

Predictably, Gerard Henderson has jumped in to defend Downer’s attack on the ALP as appeasers (sort of - it’s “polemic, not history”, Hendo writes):

What’s surprising is that some leading Liberals are now contesting Labor’s dominance over the Australian political debate. Downer’s speech should be read and debated - not just dismissed as a product of (alleged) ambition and/or stupidity.

“Labor’s dominance over the Australian political debate”? We wish, Gerry.

Will conservative commentators ever acknowledge that their discourse is in fact hegemonic these days?

Elsewhere: The longer Hendo is at Tim Dunlop’s place.

Dissing Tony

I bought a hoodie the other day, since the nights are starting to get quite cool in Brisvegas. In Britain, this would now be considered by the morally authoritarian Blair regime anti-social behaviour, I’ve since discovered. The Times of India puts it beautifully:

Never mind the attractive hooded sweatshirts on sale around the world as the shapeless uniform of urban noughties youth. The message from the political catwalks of London, straight from the mouths of grizzled political bears such as three-term PM Tony Blair and deputy prime minister John Prescott: wear a hoodie at your peril; it’s anti-social and you might find yourself breaking the law.

The extraordinary fashion directive, which some may liken to India’s saffron strand diktat some years ago against pubescent girls wearing tight jeans, came just hours after Britain’s largest shopping centre banned hoodies.

The ban is the first time a garment has officially gone on a shopping centre’s anti-social list. It is thought to paint the hoodie in new colours, very different from the roseate view of its wearers.

Blair backed the ban on Thursday. Hoodies and baseball caps were an ugly symbol of British abdication of respect for authority, he suggested. The hoodie could be intimidating, he said.

Blair’s fiat against the hoodie was in tune with his deputy PM’s publicly-expressed aversion to all the garment had come to symbolise at British shopping centres and urban melting pots.

Commentators said the controversy over the Iraq war may be dying, but it had given way to the equally controversial politics of the battle against the hoodie.

For, the hoodie has become the political punching bag for a generation of British politicians yearning to return the Anglo-Saxon West to an old-style sense of courtesy and traditional mores.

Of course, the real lives of these non-traditional youth are far more complex than generalisations about a culture lacking respect and deference would suggest.

Coincidentally, I was going through some old videos the other night and happened upon a BBC special on the House of Lords made in 1999 - prior to the removal of most hereditary peers. The Lords were voting on (by a large majority to reject) a Commons’ amendment to align the age of consent for gay and straight kids to 16. Outside, there was a spirited demonstration with protesters chanting “house of shame, house of fear”. There was a grab of a distinguished looking elderly legislator, Lord Annan, who turns out to be a life peer and a film maker and author speaking. Among his remarks recorded in Hansard are these gems:

People say that this involves a health hazard. All sexual activities present a health hazard. I shall not weary the House with a list of diseases which occur in heterosexual intercourse. Homosexuality does not cause HIV and AIDS. The HIV virus causes AIDS. What causes AIDS is unprotected sex for both men and women; and the BMA Council maintains that the present law inhibits efforts to safeguard the health of young men. Why is it that the important bodies connected with the young–they have been listed already today–are so adamantly in favour of the Bill? The noble Baroness said that she was surprised and pained by that. But she never went to see those bodies. She expected them to come to her.

I was just about to say that I was right at the end of my speech, and I was imploring the House not to be insular, not to ignore our role in Europe, and not to have a fit of the sulks just because life has changed in the past 40 years. We are not living at the beginning of the 20th century; we are living at the very end of it.

In an interview on the programme, he argued that politicians had no right to judge people - and young people particularly whose behaviour is often the subject of moral panics - and that the maximum amount of personal liberty was the aim that legislators should have.

Noble sentiments indeed, and ones that Tony Blair would be wise to ponder.

Elsewhere: More on hoodies at Rob’s.

Po/Mo Shock - Relativism invades Big Brother House

Don’t forget Lefty Tim is a graduate of that hotbed of Marxist postmodernist terrorism, The University of Sydney:

Inside, Kate accuses Tim of lying. She points out he’s got his fingers crossed. He tells them that he’s kneading the dough and his fingers aren’t crossed. They ask if he’s ever studying to become a priest. He says he has and Gianna accuses him of having his toes crossed inside his socks. Tim thinks and asks: “What is truth, really?” Gianna answers: “When you’re not telling a lie.” He argues that language is “just a signs system”. Gianna walks off.

Just imagine - cultural studies practitioners can write about BB and Lefty Tim is already squaring the hermeneutic circle from within!

Update: [12.03am] If you’re not watching the BB live feed, you just missed Lefty Tim showering in all his naked semioticness. Some consolation for alert viewers - Christie, whose mind is not currently misconstrued, is getting a backrub (sans bra) from Logan Greg. Sorry - you missed it. Now Lefty Tim (clothed) is washing up.

You can console yourself with Ausculture Jess’ review of Uncut.

Just in: Exciting news - there is a mystery prize associated with this thread. And you don’t have to spend 55c. And it sounds better than the usual crummy blog contest prizes of a glass of milk and a year’s free subscription.

Elsewhere: MsFits deconstructs Big Brother politics.

Update: MsFits’ comments thread has spawned the ultimate lefty blog.

An Embarrassment to Himself?

Here is one of torture legalisation advocate Peter Faris’ latest posts:

The statistics for hits on this site have gone through the roof in the last two days.

I welcome everyone who has come to the site.

Please come back if you wish to have some intelligent debate, whatever your political position. Especially please come back if you have conservative views.

Don’t worry about the current wave of trash comments - this pathetic, abusive Leftwing element will crawl back under the rocks where they came from and we will hear no more from them. It is particularly ironic that, because I am opposed to censorship and believe in free speech, this abusive scum use my website to abuse me and attempt to stop me speaking my views. And they are the ones who campaign for a Bill of Rights!

In the spirit of freedom of speech, I think I’ll let Mr Faris QC speak for himself.

One thing’s certain - he’s no Tim Blair. I think I’ll take his advice and stop reading his fascinating and freely expressed thoughts on his blog - like his claim that the Left love Saddam, his links to Fox News, and his claims that the French and German governments are cowardly. Oh, I forgot to mention his penetrating analysis of Labor factionalism.

Politically incorrect or boringly predictable?

Tortuous Reasoning V

There’s something a bit odd about the torture “debate”. Peter Faris complains about the liberal meejah and pc and freedom of speech:

My main reason in setting up the Blog in the first place was because I found my conservative political views were not represented in the media. Further, the media were not interested in my views. The rule of Political Correctness means that issues like torture or the death penalty cannot even be discussed in public.

Yet Mr Faris gets a front page story in The Age, far more attention than his blog would normally warrant, and apparently he also has a radio show on 3AW for 2 hours every Sunday morning.

Would it be unreasonable to suspect that Mr Faris might be seeking to make a bit of a media name for himself?

Unlike Professor Bagaric and Ms Clarke, who at least mounted some argument in favour of their position (albeit argument characterised by rather simplistic ethical reasoning and a seeming lack of understanding of the realities of interrogation and anti-terrorism methods), Faris QC doesn’t trouble himself by engaging in any sustained argument. Rather, he uses scenarios drawn from Dirty Harry to suggest that torture could be a normal part of criminal investigation technique.

You have to wonder about his moral seriousness, and also about his motives for this intervention. It’s certainly succeeded in gaining him some media attention.

The standard of argument on Mr Faris’ blog can best be described as juvenile. In response to what was an obviously satirical comment, Faris replies:

You represent everything in the Left that is disgusting. I exercise my right to freedom of speech and you threaten me. Stalinist.

Other comments on the blog reach these heights of erudition and ethical engagement with a debate ostensibly about doing deliberate harm to people:

Boy oh Boy!!!

Such nastiness from the peace loving left…Now I REALLY can’t wait for tomorrow. I might even get up before midday just so I can get stuck into them!

It’s fantastic that just one person’s point of view can cause so much anger! AWESOME!

It’s difficult to take Faris’ opinion seriously when it is not supported by any reasoned argument. It’s disturbing in the extreme that serious issues regarding national security and, I repeat, the doing of deliberate harm to persons are “debated” in such a flippant manner. In fact, it’s morally disturbing in the extreme, as well as intellectually bereft.

So let’s leave the QC to his conspicuous indignation about freedom of speech and raise some questions about the publication of Bagaric and Clarke’s article in the San Francisco University Law Journal. As far as I’m aware, the media coverage has yet to mention that this publication is a student edited and managed journal. This in itself is not unusual within the discipline of Law - a long tradition modelled on such publications as the Harvard Law Review exists in Law Schools. Such journals often carry serious and scholarly papers, though of course, as with any other discipline there’s a hierarchy of prestige and quality among them. Such rankings are normally determined through the citation of articles - a measure of their influence. The most respected citation index does not track articles in this particular publication. None of the faculty at SFU appear in a list of the 120 most cited American legal academics. The school itself is apparently so little known that it is not listed in a compendium of US Law Schools ranked on various criteria.

I’m grateful to Ken Parish for drawing my attention to this argument from reknowned legal scholar Richard Posner on the system of publishing academic articles (rather than case notes for instance) in student edited Law Reviews:

The system of scholarly publication in law is starkly different. With a few exceptions, law reviews are edited by law students rather than by professors or other professionals. The law reviews are numerous, are published bimonthly or at more frequent intervals, are edited without peer review, and are seemingly unconstrained in length. Their staffs are large, but the members, being students, are inexperienced both in law and in editing. With such abundant manpower and no reliance on peer review, law reviews do not forbid simultaneous submission or insist on brevity, and the interval between initial submission and final publication is much shorter than in other scholarly fields. The size of law review staffs enables them not only to check the author’s citations but also to make many substantive comments and to engage in line-by-line copyediting

A legal academic himself, Ken tells me that in Australia, law journals are peer reviewed. Similarly, in the United States, there are many serious journals which deal with questions of legal and moral philosophy which have a rigorous and high standard of peer review. The question then becomes - were Bagaric and Clarke reluctant to submit their paper to a review process? Would it have survived peer review?

Some clues to the motivation for publication in the San Francisco University Law Review come from this email to Melbourne journalist Katherine Wilson from the editor of the journal, Megan K. Rosichan (permission to cite has been given):

Indeed, in the spirit of this debate, the Law Review sponsored a symposium at our school in April, entitled “Torture: When, If Ever, Is It Permissible?”. Our keynote speaker was former Gen. Janis Karpinski, the general who was in charge of the military police at Abu Gharib prison. The symposium included a panel discussion that featured Professor Bagaric, as well as two other professors, one of whom does not support torture in any circumstances (Prof. Marcy Strauss of Loyola School of Law, Los Angeles) and one of whom supports torture under somewhat more limited circumstances than Professor Bagaric (Prof. John T. Parry of the University of Pittsburgh School of Law).

We have substantiated all the sources cited in the final version of Professors Bagaric and Clarke’s article, and we believe that they fairly and accurately stand for the proposition for which they were cited. Beyond that, we believe that Professors Bagaric and Clarke are entitled to make a welll-reasoned, scholarly argument, regardless of the viewpoint that they support. For these reasons, the U.S.F. Law Review stands by our decision to publish their article.

This confirms that all the editors have done is check the references in the article. It also answers the question of why this obscure journal from a small Law School at a private Jesuit University was chosen.

But Bagaric and Clarke need to answer the bigger question - can their arguments be taken seriously by scholars and thinkers who are experts in legal and moral philosophy and anti-terrorism methods? Without the peer review process, we will never know.

Elsewhere: Tim Dunlop raises similar questions about Faris’ “freedom of speech” claims.

Update: Rob Corr points out that in Dirty Harry, the torture failed to save the girl’s life.

History Wars Continued and Continued and Continued…

My piece on Alexander Downer’s claims about the Labor Party and its foreign policy history has now been published at Online Opinion, immediately below Downer’s speech. I’ll be watching the site with interest to see if this prompts others to enter the lists.

Tortuous Reasoning IV

What did Bagaric and Clarke start? All the torture advocates are coming out of the woodwork now, the latest being former NCA head Peter Faris QC:

Mr Faris said it would be acceptable to use torture in criminal investigations.

“A psychopathic murderer has buried a teenage girl alive and he is captured by the police,” an example on Mr Faris’s web blog says.

“He refuses to say where she is. He taunts the police with his knowledge. Torture is acceptable to find the girl and to save her life.”

The example was taken from the film Dirty Harry, Mr Faris said.

Well, that’s a realistic scenario.

So now we have serious debate in this country from people arguing beyond the terrorist examples to the use of torture in criminal investigations:

But the Crime Victims Support Association said police should be able to torture criminals if they were certain they had information about other crimes.

“Anyone who is a serious offender like that, they [the police] should have the right to do it,” said association president Noel McNamara.

Faris has some legislative ideas:

He said there were no guarantees that torture would work - “if you don’t get the information, you don’t get the information”.

However, “to pull out a fingernail of a terrorist in order to save a couple of million lives” was morally right, he told AAP.

“I’m not saying `let’s legislate immediately’,” Mr Faris said.

“What I’m trying to establish is that this is a legitimate issue to be on the table for debate… but people start saying you’re a Nazi because you want to debate it.”

Mr Faris said legislating for torture was not an ideal situation, and standards of acceptable torture, including “the reasonable application of pain”, would have to be set if it were to be used.

Fortunately there are some lawyers against torture:

The Chairman of the Criminal Bar Association, Lex Lasry, QC, today rejected Mr Faris’ attempt to open debate into the use of torture in criminal investigations.

“Mr Faris’ suggestion that the use of torture could arguably be an acceptable tool in the investigation of some serious crimes, based on the film Dirty Harry, is bizarre and we, of course, reject it,” Mr Lasry said.

“There are a number of important issues affecting the criminal justice system being debated at present without being diverted by some ludicrous concept of introducing legalised torture by police as an investigative technique.”

Postmodernity or premodernity? Pick the difference.

Talk to the QC: Should you wish to do so, you can comment on Mr Faris’ blog. His blogroll contains the usual RWDB suspects - might be worth watching to see if any jump on his bandwagon.

Elsewhere: Graham Young picks up on the Bond fantasy element of these tortuous desires at Ambit Gambit, while David Tiley is disgusted at Barista, and Tim Dunlop comments on Faris’ comments sensitivities.

Video Killed the Radio Star

A while back on the Troppo thread where Ken took umbrage at the boring baby-boomerness of the music choices in the Normblog pool, Christopher Sheil made an observation which has had me thinking on and off ever since:

My early conclusion is that the era of the generational anthems is completely cactus. “Teen Spirit” is the closest, and it doesn’t peep far above the rack.

The theories for this are probably endless. One is simply that anthems from the earlier period still hold too much of their ground, and the later music is destined to be subordinate. There is only so much room to move in the form, even if it can never be entirely emptied. Hence, the the artists who caught the first big waves of rock ‘n roll etc swept up all the low hanging fruit.

Yet radio is surely important. The mass fragmentation, the casting of myriad choices, the mass production of cheap cds and playing technologies, the privatisation of the listening experience. There are no anthems simply because there is no mass channel, only a mass of channels.

It would be easy to run off at the typewriter in further speculation and implications, but that’s a start. One historian’s observation is that for everything that’s gained, something is lost. The story before it fragmented was a tremendous common social currency for much of my life. I could not begin to count the number of people I’ve got to know through sharing versions of rock ‘n’ roll epic stories, or the story of the blues, or whether or not we were at this or that concert. While there have always been sharp divisions of opinion etc, nearly every music fan works off the same page, up to sometime in the 80s. Today’s contemporaries, divided into much smaller tribes, speaking so many different musical languages, would have an absolute bugger of a time agreeing on a top party tape.

The gist of Chris’ insight is that the media dissemination of music these days is so fragmented that there’s not one generational playlist - to the degree that there was even when I was a teenager in the 80s. Although it probably started fragmenting around then. Around 83-84, when I first started buying records and going out to see bands, there was already a fair bit of genre segmentation - New Romantics, 80s Mods listening to Ska, Goths, and Swampies. But subcultures (and their associated anthems and music tastes) were very discernible back then too, and had pretty hard and fast boundaries, in a way that I suspect is not true now among youth.

I’m not a radio listener these days - and radio of course (along with Countdown, Rage and so on) was how we picked up on new music when I was a kid. I bought some cds last week, and I was reflecting on how I picked them (all artists new to me). Some were recommendations - the excellent Antony and the Johnsons (kinda po/mo Lou Reed in feel - with the great man himself contributing vocals and guitar to “What Can I do” - and all sorts of other interesting guest artists such as Boy George) via wbb, Mazzy Star via my friend E who’s got very similar tastes to mine (yes, that includes Beth O!). Some were bands I’d read about in Rolling Stone or had heard one track on a soundtrack - Hooverphonics, Everything But the Girl, the fabulous alt.country-ish Neko Case and Her Boyfriends. One was just something that looked interesting on a $10 table at the music shop - Malou - which is described on the cover as “A Heavy Track of Funky Scandinavian Lounge + Jazz + Chillout + House + Bossa and Breaks”. A few weeks ago, I also picked up the 7th Ministry of Sound Chillout sessions on tape, which might come close to being a generational unifier these days - but again there’s so much variety in genres of remixes and compilations. And then a while back some old 80s (for me) faves - Leonard Cohen’s new album, Bruce Springsteen’s and a second hand copy of Nebraska.

It must be a marketer’s nightmare, but it’s a music fan’s delight, I think.

The fragmentation of the media for the dissemination of new music probably has some parallels with the decline in the prestige and sales of newspapers and the rise of blogs. And of course, for music recommendations, there are blogs too like our very own LP commenter Amanda’s.

Elsewhere: Mr Lefty muses on digital diversity.

Blogging Truth to Power

Sparked off by a column by Michael Duffy (of which more at Troppo), Tim Dunlop writes about the success of bloggers in subjecting Bush’s social security revamp to sustained criticism and analysis, a success which has had some impact on the broader public policy debate in this field. Tim suggests, that with the absence of any countervailing power to the Howard government after 1 July, that Australian bloggers could play a similar role. I agree. There’s certainly the talent and experience in public policy in the Ozblogosphere. Perhaps it would be worth thinking about a collaborative blog for such analyses. Sustained public policy analysis is time consuming, and it would be hard for one blogger alone to do it, and it might also be incompatible with the style and feel of currently existing blogs. I’d welcome any input on this idea.

What a Difference a Decade and a Half and a Bit Makes

Following on from the discussion of Tariq Ali and Christopher Hitchens here at LP, there’s a fascinating endorsement on the back cover of Ali’s newly reissued memoir Street Fighting Man:

Tariq Ali has not lost the passion and vim which made him a symbol of the spirit of ‘68… has not seen fit to join forces with the terminally cyncical, or set up a graven god that can be accused of faling… Ali has spent much of his life denouncing America as the arsenal of counter-revolution.

That was Christoper Hitchens writing in 1987.

The quote from the SMH review is also instructive in this context:

… the recollections of a person who has remained true to himself.

Sunday Night Trash TV Blogging

I’ll be watching the BB eviction (and I predict Ausculture Jess’ prediction will come true!) but for those of you who may be interested, Flutey is promising to live blog the Eurovision Song Contest final. I refrain from further comment.

Update: Jess picked it - it’s Angela.

Further Update: Flutey’s on fire:

2. UK: What the fuck is this shit? Leave the mid eastern pop to countries that can carry it off. I am lucky to be Australian. Even cute bum waggling by scatily clad nypmhs cannot rescue this bile.

Tune: 3/10
Singing: 5/10
Pazazz: 5/10

Intro 3: More shitty beach footage.

Tough on the causes of crime

There’s some discussion over at Catallaxy of the new book by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explains the Hidden Side of Everything. I don’t know if Levitt could actually be described as a rogue economist, having picked up awards from the profession. One of his more interesting theses has been highly controversial, and will no doubt be more so with the book heading up the bestseller lists:

A few years ago, a young economist named Steven D. Levitt became briefly notorious for collaborating on a research paper that contained a strikingly novel thesis: abortion curbs crime. What Levitt and his co-author claimed, specifically, was that the sharp drop in the United States crime rate during the 1990’s — commonly attributed to factors like better policing, stiffer gun laws and an aging population — was in fact largely due to the Roe v. Wade decision two decades earlier. The logic was simple: unwanted children are more likely to grow up to become criminals; legalized abortion leads to less unwantedness; therefore, abortion leads to less crime.

This conclusion managed to offend nearly everyone. Conservatives were outraged that abortion was seemingly being promoted as a solution to crime. Liberals detected a whiff of racist eugenics. Besides, what business did this callow economist have trespassing on the territory of the criminologist? Economics is supposed to be about price elasticities and interest rates and diminishing marginal utilities, not abortion and crime. That is what makes it so useful to undergraduates seeking relief from insomnia.

Levitt has strayed far from the customary paddock of the dismal science in search of interesting problems. How do parents of different races and classes choose names for their children? What sort of contestants on the TV show ”The Weakest Link” are most likely to be discriminated against by their fellow contestants? If crack dealers make so much money, why do they live with their moms? Such everyday riddles are fair game for the economist, Levitt contends, because their solution involves understanding how people react to incentives. His peers seem to agree. In 2003, Levitt was awarded the John Bates Clark Medal, bestowed every two years on the most accomplished American economist under 40.

Interestingly, Levitt has a blog attached to the book’s website, where he posts on his abortion research.

As a sociologist, I’m not professionally competent to evaluate Levitt’s methodology, so I’m grateful to Jason Soon for this link to Steve Sailor’s criticisms. It did strike me, particularly after reading a post at John Quiggin’s place about physicists re-inventing the sociological wheel by doing social network analysis, that this is an example of an economist dealing with problems that would normally be of interest to sociologists. This is of course more usual in the application of rational choice methods (which originated in economics) to the other social sciences, and Levitt’s methodology appears to be on a quick inspection more characteristic of social science research more broadly than economic research per se.

What Levitt is probably picking up on is the consensus among American criminologists that the fall in the rate of violent crime over the last 15 years (though it’s important to remember that it’s still historically high) is not explained by things like three strikes laws or mandatory sentencing or zero-tolerance policing. The most powerful explanation appears to be demographic - the generation of young men aged between 18 and 24 (the time in the lifecourse where people are most prone to commit crimes against the person) is simply smaller than it was in the 80s when US crime rates peaked. This conclusion, of course, is reached using regression analysis, and as with all causal correlations from statistical research, only tells part of the story. There are underlying social and cultural shifts going on as well which are better brought out by social theory and qualitative work. However, there is no doubt that this demographic factor has a lot of explanatory power.

Levitt’s analysis seems to me to be parasitic on this research, applying it to cross-state comparisons (an attempt to reproduce the methodology of the experiment in the natural sciences). However, this is a very problematic method and I doubt that there’s a straight causal direction from the legalisation of abortion to falling crime rates. I’m grateful to Nicholas Gruen for advising me via email there’s some doubt among economists about the validity of this method as well. Nevertheless, it’s a very interesting correlation, to say the least.

Rafe Champion seems to suggest at Catallaxy that there’s some sort of general truth demonstrated from Levitt’s research that “incentives and motivations” can explain human behaviour. No doubt this is true to some degree, but I’d argue that the lack of sociological context in the application of economic research to sociological problems casts doubt on such an ambitious claim.

We’ll all be rooned

I must confess to an almost complete ignorance regarding matters agricultural and climatological. However, watching Robin Batterham on Lateline the other night, in the context of a story about the drought and climate change, reminded me of a study I heard of a while back which suggested that when Australia was settled by whites in the 19th century, levels of rainfall were historically high compared to long term averages over millennia. The conclusion was that many districts thought suitable for farming then are only marginal at best. Add to this the projections of the CSIRO regarding climate change and I start to wonder whether we are barking up the wrong tree by pouring money into relieving farmers during a drought which may in fact be something more like a normal weather pattern in the future.

As Crikey observed back in February, to ask such questions is to go against the grain of persistent Australian ideological motifs:

Yet when anyone raises questions about drought relief policy they get howled down as anti-Australian, anti-farmer and biased against the hard-working country folk who are the backbone of our country.

The reality is that, while many of the folk are hard-working, drought relief is probably one of the most irrational policies — on social, environmental and economic grounds — around.

I’d be really interested in hearing from anyone who knows much more than me about this subject and what the best way to proceed in terms of policy is.

Elsewhere: Rafe Champion looks at the economics of the drought at Catallaxy. Andrew Leigh proposes a HECS-style repayment scheme for drought aid at Imagining Australia.

Update: Phillipa Murray discusses the responses of some farmers to drought assistance in The Age:

The same school of “hard” farmers who champion less government assistance believe the pictures of starving stock in bare paddocks underline the case for an overhaul of drought assistance. They propose, for instance, that land in long-term drought be locked up for several years to allow regeneration.

Part of the problem lies in the lingering misconception that drought in Australia is an aberration. Once considered a natural disaster, it is now a common occurrence and must be managed like any other business risk.

Doling out dollars to the bleating few to achieve a short-term fix will only result in a long-term headache.

The Politics of Colour

In the Ozblogosphere, we have a purple blog, a Yellow Vinyl Dress, and of course a red domain.

In the US, they have red states (Republican) and blue states (Democratic), and we’re constantly told, ne’er the twain shall meet.

A pseudonymous guest blogger (not it should be noted - one of the other guest bloggers -Dr Nick from the Simpsons) analyses the lacklustre performance of the Demos in coloured terms at Bitch, Ph.D.:

Ever since the red-blue meme took hold across the land, I’ve been sad that Republicans appropriated the good color. I mean, you have to admit that red is hotter than blue. No one ever talks about blue fuck-me pumps. But now this!

“Across a range of sports, we find that wearing red is consistently associated with a higher probability of winning,” Dr. Russell Hill and Dr. Robert Barton, researchers in evolutionary anthropology at the University of Durham, wrote in a paper that appears today in the journal Nature.

The research began a year ago with a hunch based on observations in the animal kingdom, where red coloration is often associated with male dominance, Dr. Barton said in an interview. Zebra finches fitted with red leg bands tend to become dominant, while those given blue bands are more submissive.

(Emphasis mine). So, apparently it’s not just that the more aggressive players choose red instead of blue, but that when these colors are externally applied, it changes behavior! Could it be that they not only got the cooler color, but also that their color is helping them win elections? Or helping to provide them with the balls to make up intelligence to justify a war, nominate Bolton to the UN, renominate 7 previously rejected judges, and change the rules of the Senate on a whim? Could it be that the fact that Dems got stuck with blue is partially responsible for what shrinking violets they have been for the past 5 years?

I can now reveal this is all a plot! It would seem that until 2004, there was a convention designating the blue states as those held by the incumbent’s party. But so powerful was the blue state vs. red state theme (largely stoked by Republicans) that in 2004 the Demos ended up in the blue corner again, despite their challenger status. Originally the tv networks’ alternation of the national colours of blue and red was intended “to prevent bias or the perception of bias”. But those cunning Republicans have confected a culture war to nab the fuck-me sexy winning colour in the colour wars!

Fortunately, in Australia, red is still the colour of the left.

NB: I’m not commenting on how or if this can be related to Qld and NSW rugby teams.

PS: Labour’s biggest success in the UK came when Tony Blair changed their colour to purple. Draw your own conclusions. “For those who have eyes to see, let them see”…