On Meet the Press last Sunday [link to document file]:
PAUL BONGIORNO: IPSOS McKay also polled nationwide on who voters would prefer to replace John Howard if he retired at the next election. 27% Peter Costello, 29% Kim Beazley and 37% said someone else. According to our pollster, Australians are looking for a fresh alternative after John Howard. Mr Beazley, that’s not good news for you, is it?
KIM BEAZLEY: In the last election campaign I was told there was a poll like that. Perhaps not by IPSOS, but by someone else, because they often ask that question. A week before the election I asked, who would you prefer as Prime Minister of the Australia, John Howard or someone else? John Howard got 29% and someone else got 71%. I think the support for Howard and the support for Costello is very shallow. That’s what I take out of that poll. We’re going to go into the next election campaign of course with a decent platform. When you do that, people start to respond to you. We’re two and a half years away from it. Looking at that poll, I don’t worry about it. I suspect that Mr Costello will.
Back when many were tipping John Howard to announce his retirement at 64, I was saying that he was going nowhere fast. I never got the impression he was intending to step down any more than I have the impression now that he is going any time soon. About the only thing that would move him to leave is a bad turn in his wife’s health, or maybe his own.
But at the same time, I have often wondered what measure of his personal support is because there are no alternatives.
I don’t think Costello will ever be Prime Minister or even leader of the Liberal Party. I don’t get the sense he has widespread support amongst the public much less within the party. It will be interesting to see if in the upcoming cabinet reshuffle Costello gets a change of portfolio, as he has requested, because I don’t think he is Howard’s preferred successor either. And if not, I wonder if Howard will allocate him a ministry that enhances his chances at the leadership or just puts him on the same holding pattern he’s been treading for years.
Either way, Costello can look forward to a very bumpy ride should he ever have the guts to make a pitch for the top job; I don’t know about you but I’m not expecting
any ‘smooth transition‘:
A smooth leadership transition from John Howard to Peter Costello is under threat, with senior Liberals warning that the Treasurer could face a challenger to his claim to the top job.
Under threat? When it was it ever on the cards?
I’d say this is fluff for Costello to test the waters and for his opponents to keep him in line. Or something to keep journalists amused, just as the threat of Howard’s retirement a couple of years back kept journalists happy for months and the rest of us bored to tears.
Still, if Costello ever makes a tilt this side of the next election, I think he will fail.
Howard’s inner circle and favoured sons seem to be Downer and Ruddock. Some analysts would say Downer has to stay close to Howard if only because his effectiveness as Foreign Minister in an era of presidential politics demands it. But I think they are chums. Did Howard do any deals to keep Downer from standing for the nuclear watchdog job? Ruddock seems to be cut from the same cloth as Howard, right down to the same work ethic. I don’t get the impression of any sort of tension between the two.
Both Downer and Ruddock are possible leadership contenders - yes, Ruddock has never discounted this in the past - although I don’t think Downer has much breadth and Ruddock definitely lacks the charisma. So does Howard for that matter. If it came down to a choice between the two, I’d prefer Ruddock over Downer.
Scary I know.
Of course we have chief head kicker Tony Abbott who I don’t think anyone seriously considers foreman material. Far too inexperienced and juvenile. You don’t want him strutting off to Jakarta and talking about his contraceptive methods with his long ago girlfriend at some doorstop. I’d like to think his intention not to run against Costello indicates that he has woken up to himself but it could also be because he’s gambling Costello won’t get a guernsey to run. He’s a bit like that our Tone. Other leadership aspirants like Nelson and Turnbull also suffer from lack of experience in parliament and/or length of time as ministers, an inexperience with which Howard liked to deride Latham - and Labor generally - last year. Chosing any of these three would just be pointing the gun back at themselves.
That’s how I see it: no one but Howard.
So much for succession planning.
At the same time, I don’t think Beazley has any serious contenders. This may not bode well for Labor given that Beazley seems to be going backwards to date in the polls.* I know there are many Gillard supporters around some blogs but I don’t think she has a chance. Does the public really know her? Are Australians ready to vote for a female PM anyway? Rudd would also face a tough time getting the numbers, even if he has been able to get his face on TV at every second opportunity. But while intelligent, he does suffer from the dweeb factor. And his eagerness to make a comment on just about everything sometimes works against him. I personally found his suggestion that Douglas Wood ’seriously consider’ giving some money back to the government, for example, rather distasteful. I think good leaders know when they should persuade - and lead by example - instead of just blithely pandering to the lowest common denominator of popular opinion. Must be the Foreign Affairs portfolio which encourages running off at the mouth.
Other Labor leadership aspirants are rather thin. And if Beazley insists on leaving competent senior MPs like McMullan on the backbench while keeping Ferguson in the ministry, then he loses a lot of respect, as do the caucus and factions which demand they be there.
Judging by Beazley’s comments, he is banking on a bit of Howard-Costello friction to get some traction for himself. That may spell danger for the Costello agitators and Costello squashers but it will not be enough for Labor. Labor has to get some discipline. And a work ethic. Its front bench has to start taking up the fight to the government on those issues that matter (Where was Plibersek on the governments social welfare reforms? What does Jenny Macklin actually do?). In time, it has to present some credible and positive alternative policies, and sell them well. God knows that people like me don’t want to struggle against the urge to vote informal.
In any case, I don’t think anyone should be getting too excited about any talk of leadership rumbles and spills within the Labor or Liberal Parites in the next year or so. At best we might have some office power politics within the Liberal ranks and some school yard sniping within Labor’s.
And I’m already thinking Howard-Beazley run-off in 2007.
I mean, is there, will there be anyone else?
Maybe when I’m 64.
*In the same Meet the Press interview, another poll cited indicated that 33% thought the Government’s tax package was fairer, 55% thought the Opposition’s was and 12% didn’t know. The question was put to Beazley as to whether he botched the tactics. What? Clearly the poll indicated at least some people in the sample group got the message from somewhere.
saint, I will take bets from all comers that Costello will never be Prime Minister.
I don’t think he’s got the heart for a long-term stoush. The Keating road to the Lodge via the back bench won’t appeal to him, but it’s probably his only real shot. Unless he can get the numbers his only hope is to undermine Howard, but he can’t do that as Loyal Deputy.
Would Pete go to the back bench to foment revolution? Or would he petulantly resign? Or would he pretent it didn’t happen and continue as Deputy? If he resigns he’s gone. If he stays as deputy he’s relying on the largesse of Howard, but by definition he’ll be gone when that support will be needed. And the back bench road is is chancy at best.
This is why the otherwise-outside-chance Nelson is hovering in the wings. A party room faced with a split vote between Costello, Downer and Ruddock might be willing to burp up a Nelson compromise candidate.
” Downer has to stay close to Howard if only because his effectiveness as Foreign Minister in an era of presidential politics demands it.”
Mark Isn’t that also that because Dolly, the clone of Dan Quayle and Gerald Ford has all the characteristics of a ventriloquist’s dummy, ie the master often has to be close to correct the utterings of a complete moron?
Howard’s life is politics.
What would he do if he retired?
That is why Howard won’t retire and like Hawke won’t see the goodbye sign.
People forget the ONLY reason Keating became PM is because Hawke had no counter to Fightback.
Costello has no ticker, is not percieved to have vision like Keating and certainly has no rigid number of people willing to vote for him like Keating.
I agree with Mark.
People tend to underestimate Downer.
The Australian public doesn’t understimate Downer EP. Last time he was Liberal Party leader he lasted as long as the Australian public could put up with the joke.
Impossible, EP. The man’s incompetence has infinite potential.
Yeah, “We couldn’t give that guy asylum/refugee status, he didn’t fill out the right form.” Brilliant.
”Indonesians can bomb the Kimberlys” Proof of an argument–devastating.
” Curtin was an appeaser” Historical facts—nonexistent.
”TNI has nothing to do with the militias killing East Timorise” Yeah, right.
The difference between Gerald Ford and Dolly? While it was said that Ford couldn’t walk and fart at the same time, discerning the difference between Dolly talking…
I’m with Fyodor, the potential is infinite.
Rowen, I’ve long ago said Costello doesn’t have the ticker and I agree that he is in a bind. I think if he loses a tilt, he’d probably lose the Deputy Leadership as well, hence the cultures who are circling (Downer, Nelson etc) But I think Nelson would be a real outsider for leadership and probably for deputy as well (Abbott would try for that too I think). If the Libs voted for him, I would be convinced they they had lost their senses.
Homer, Howard AND Janette have no life outside politics. They both breathe it.
EP - the Liberal party doesn’t underestimate Downer. I think he is the preferred candidate. The rest of Australia may just think of him as the Liberal’s Latham. Do not try this again at home.
er..vultures
Saint,
I am dissappointed you would think howard’s dutiful wife would be any different to john.
Discussions of Coalition leadership are vacuous under the circumstances. On John Quiggins ‘Labor Roots’ post I demonstrate why Federal Labor must coopt either Beattie or Carr immediately to the leadership and reform the party root and branch.
To rusted on ALP faithful, let me ask you this. If you thought for one minute Mark Latham was the way to lead the party ahead, then surely you and your party have to give his criticisms some credence now.
Like Andrew Peacock, it was an experiment that failed Observa, and like Andrew, Latho should be relaxing about it and watching his version of the 224th rerun of ”Irma La Douce”. He should not be tipping buckets of bilge over those who opposed him. Petulance is not a good motivation for, nor leads to infalliable criticism either, (notwithstanding the need to draft Beattie or Carr.)
Which is demonstrated aptly in today’s Bully. And what Peter said.
Interesting to see Oakes giving the Beazer a break for once.
Thing is, the election is over 2 years off. Anything thatt happens between now and late 2006, even early 2007, is completely irrelevant because the electorate wont remember anything. Its all very well to say that Beazley is doing a crap job, but in reality he’s just marking time. His only real aim right now is to block stupid policies and think up and discuss new ideas for the election. The public doesnt care, nothing they do now will count on polling day, whats the point?
Its really not going to get fun until 2007 - I predict political happenings will be mind numbingly boring for most of 2006 after senataphobia has worn off and all the stupid Howard bills are passed, blocked by a miracle and/or Barnaby Joyce, or changed to slightly less lame.
Why else are we obsessed with polls and leadership gossip and speculation? Theres not much else to do.
Homer, I have this theory called “blobbing”.
No I don’t think Latham should shut up. If he wants to say something and he has a market for what he has to say, go for it. It’s a free country. The rest of us will judge it as we judge anything else said in the public sphere. We have lots of ex leaders giving us their pearls of wisdom or not.
Oh and if anyone is interesting is breaking up factions, could you head over to the SA Liberals and the Federal Liberal SA branch. Thank you. Much appreciated.
And on Downer - not a chance. My theory is that he is the one they are using to say all the crazy stuff because his reputation is expendable. He just needs to keep stroking the Chinese and delivering orders from Bush.
Nic some of what you say is right - as I said in the post, leadership talk is just a diversion. But I think people form there opinions over a long time. I certainly think it matters what politicians do two or three years out from an election. It builds their credibility or otherwise, profile, consistency, whatever. People may not remember anything but the most colourful incidents, but they do absorb all of this to formulate an impression.
I dont really agree. I think the public make their minds up close to the election. Latham was an exception because he was such a loudmouth when he wasnt leader.
I dont have the brainpower to stoush right now, so you can win.
No I am not looking or a stoush or winning anything Nic. Just yarning.
My guess is that the only leadership issue this year will be within the ALP. Rudd is already feeling out the not insubstantial segment that thoroughly despises Beazley. Watch for a spill in September if the 2PP is still even-ish or in favour of the Libs, and if Howard’s approval is still 50+.
Beazer looks worse this time round than he did last time, and the party knows it.
Costello as Victorian premier? That’s actually one of the better ideas i’ve heard for a long while. It has struck for a while how easy it would be to become the leader of a coalition state party - they are so utterly devoid of talent. Turnbull could probably be NSW Premier right now if he’d decided on state politics instead of going for the big prize.
Shucks I thought so too Fred. Christian Kerr at Crikey’s squattocracy has a different take:
And Abbott came out yesterday saying that “I’ve always made it very clear that there’s a definite pecking order inside the Liberal Party: John Howard first, Peter Costello second and then a whole lot of other people a long, long way behind.”
The health minister has fallen from grace. Yes, he neutralised health as an issue in the lead-up to last year’s election — but only because the prime minister tossed him plenty of dosh. The purse was then snapped shut on his fingers pretty damned hard with the Medicare rebate backflip.
Brendan Nelson gave a seamless presentation to the council on the weekend, but the politest way to describe him is as a pretender.
There might be a simple reason for the backing Downer has received — and explanation that must count for a lot with the PM.
The foreign minister, very unambiguously, has no Labor links. No past flirtations or consummations. That makes him very different from the other deputy wannabes — from Abbott and definitely from Nelson. And even from the man who would be king, Peter Costello.
Shucks I thought so too Fred. Christian Kerr at Crikey’s squattocracy has a different take:
And Abbott came out yesterday saying that “I’ve always made it very clear that there’s a definite pecking order inside the Liberal Party: John Howard first, Peter Costello second and then a whole lot of other people a long, long way behind.”
The health minister has fallen from grace. Yes, he neutralised health as an issue in the lead-up to last year’s election — but only because the prime minister tossed him plenty of dosh. The purse was then snapped shut on his fingers pretty damned hard with the Medicare rebate backflip.
Brendan Nelson gave a seamless presentation to the council on the weekend, but the politest way to describe him is as a pretender.
There might be a simple reason for the backing Downer has received — and explanation that must count for a lot with the PM.
The foreign minister, very unambiguously, has no Labor links. No past flirtations or consummations. That makes him very different from the other deputy wannabes — from Abbott and definitely from Nelson. And even from the man who would be king, Peter Costello.Don’t know about John going next year. I’m still including Ruddock as the dark horse.
Nelson could never be leader with that tragic haircut. Just sayin…