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Leadership tensions are logical for the Liberals at the moment. There’s talk the PM might walk next year. Labor is a mess. It’s a good time for a transition. Interestingly, Shanahan observed:

If there were a challenge to Mr Costello, the crucial votes of the Howard supporters, a big majority within the parliamentary party, could divide the Liberals and destroy the chance of a seamless leadership transition.

Health Minister Tony Abbott, seen as a close Howard supporter, has indicated he will not stand against Mr Costello in the party room.

And Abbott came out yesterday saying that “I’ve always made it very clear that there’s a definite pecking order inside the Liberal Party: John Howard first, Peter Costello second and then a whole lot of other people a long, long way behind.”

The health minister has fallen from grace. Yes, he neutralised health as an issue in the lead-up to last year’s election — but only because the prime minister tossed him plenty of dosh. The purse was then snapped shut on his fingers pretty damned hard with the Medicare rebate backflip.

Brendan Nelson gave a seamless presentation to the council on the weekend, but the politest way to describe him is as a pretender.

There might be a simple reason for the backing Downer has received — and explanation that must count for a lot with the PM.

The foreign minister, very unambiguously, has no Labor links. No past flirtations or consummations. That makes him very different from the other deputy wannabes — from Abbott and definitely from Nelson. And even from the man who would be king, Peter Costello.Don’t know about John going next year. I’m still including Ruddock as the dark horse.

Leadership tensions are logical for the Liberals at the moment. There’s talk the PM might walk next year. Labor is a mess. It’s a good time for a transition. Interestingly, Shanahan observed:

If there were a challenge to Mr Costello, the crucial votes of the Howard supporters, a big majority within the parliamentary party, could divide the Liberals and destroy the chance of a seamless leadership transition.

Health Minister Tony Abbott, seen as a close Howard supporter, has indicated he will not stand against Mr Costello in the party room.

And Abbott came out yesterday saying that “I’ve always made it very clear that there’s a definite pecking order inside the Liberal Party: John Howard first, Peter Costello second and then a whole lot of other people a long, long way behind.”

The health minister has fallen from grace. Yes, he neutralised health as an issue in the lead-up to last year’s election — but only because the prime minister tossed him plenty of dosh. The purse was then snapped shut on his fingers pretty damned hard with the Medicare rebate backflip.

Brendan Nelson gave a seamless presentation to the council on the weekend, but the politest way to describe him is as a pretender.

There might be a simple reason for the backing Downer has received — and explanation that must count for a lot with the PM.

The foreign minister, very unambiguously, has no Labor links. No past flirtations or consummations. That makes him very different from the other deputy wannabes — from Abbott and definitely from Nelson. And even from the man who would be king, Peter Costello.

Beazer looks worse this time round than he did last time, and the party knows it.

Costello as Victorian premier? That’s actually one of the better ideas i’ve heard for a long while. It has struck for a while how easy it would be to become the leader of a coalition state party - they are so utterly devoid of talent. Turnbull could probably be NSW Premier right now if he’d decided on state politics instead of going for the big prize.

I dont have the brainpower to stoush right now, so you can win.

No I don’t think Latham should shut up. If he wants to say something and he has a market for what he has to say, go for it. It’s a free country. The rest of us will judge it as we judge anything else said in the public sphere. We have lots of ex leaders giving us their pearls of wisdom or not.

Oh and if anyone is interesting is breaking up factions, could you head over to the SA Liberals and the Federal Liberal SA branch. Thank you. Much appreciated.

Its really not going to get fun until 2007 - I predict political happenings will be mind numbingly boring for most of 2006 after senataphobia has worn off and all the stupid Howard bills are passed, blocked by a miracle and/or Barnaby Joyce, or changed to slightly less lame.

Why else are we obsessed with polls and leadership gossip and speculation? Theres not much else to do.

Interesting to see Oakes giving the Beazer a break for once.

Homer, Howard AND Janette have no life outside politics. They both breathe it.

EP - the Liberal party doesn’t underestimate Downer. I think he is the preferred candidate. The rest of Australia may just think of him as the Liberal’s Latham. Do not try this again at home.