There was lots of interesting stuff in the Fin Review’s Power special this year - but discounting the Glenn Milne spin in the Sunday Mail that the focus on Howard’s staffers was a sign that he is contemplating retiring (isn’t this a line Milne repeats at boring Costello wishful thinking intervals?) - it was perhaps important that Costello slipped down the power ladder. Never mind about the judgement of the panel (though it was kinda interesting to see Melbourne VC Glyn Davis getting a jersey) - what is important about this sort of assessment is the signal it sends - to the elites who read the Fin and to the pollie/journo community.
I’m definitely in the Howard will never retire camp. But nevertheless, as the Fin noted, he has to pretend he is a mortal and not the reincarnated alchemical compound of Menzies and Churchill and keep up the pretence that he has another successor to play off against Costello. The Fin panel is astute to pick up that a combination of Costello’s lack of ticker and the utter ineptness of both his political strategy and his interventions outside his portfolio (dissing Muslims, Bush might “cut and run”, get rid of unfair dismissal altogether, Hillsong shenanigans…) have discounted his political cred in a big way.
But who’s Howard got to play against him? The madly hyperactive spelling machine Brendan Nelson (who doesn’t have the ticker to walk past a few Sydney Uni students even with a police escort), Pell groupie Abbott…. Malcolm Turnbull?
In 1990, we were told the Answer Was Liberal. Paul Keating famously asked… what’s the question?
Now we’re told - the Answer is Alexander.
I reckon they should go the whole hog and give the gig to the sole parliamentary representative of the Undead, Mr Ruddock. It really is the logical post-mortem and ghostly heritage of Howardianism.
But anyway… Downer? What’s the question again?
I think people have been underestimating Downer for a long time.
All that he really has against him is the over-hyped reaction to a single joke many years ago.
That media-driven perception of Downer in terms of one incident has prevented many people from seeing the reality of a competent politician. Now that the media are losing their grip on politics, Downer may yet re-emerge into the sunlight.
E.P., Downer continues to make gaffes as foriegn minister. For instance, his 2004 gaffe commenting on Australia’s potential response to Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. Greg Sheridan, hardly a raging lefty and generally supportive of the government, had this to say at the time:
Downer is an exceptionally mediocre Foriegn Minister and holds his position as a Howard loyalist, not through any great level of competence.
Howard’s personal contribution accounts for 50% of the current Liberal success. So yes he will not retire, and no, there is nobody who could fill his shoes.
But over the longer term I’d be thinking Turnbull. We have yet to see how he handles pressure - he may be a flake afterall - but the alternatives are impossible to contemplate. Ruddock is a fanatic. Downer is vain and pompous and only comfortable when sitting on leather furniture. Abbott is a loose cannon and church groupie. Nelson is also a fanatic. Vanstone is on the downward slope. Costello is man in search of an identity. I bet he keeps a diary.
Being a foreign minister now with all this ‘war on terror’ bizzo its one of the easiest jobs. No wonder Downer can hide his mediocrity behind it. It’s money for jam really. In the top job (or as a treasurer for example) he would last a month…tops.
“Downer is vain and pompous and only comfortable when sitting on leather furniture.” Oh touche.
And yes,Sheridan even wrote about how foreign ministers/ministers of state (e.g. Downer and Condy) are rather superfluous in this day and age of presidential politics and high techcommunications and only valuable if they can be perceived as mouthpieces of said presidents or president pretenders. If his supporters can’t say too much about his achievements well I don’t think Downer has much chance.
If Downer worked for me I would make him some sort of operations man - like makes sure this runs like this. Definitely not one for planning, ideas or strategy - or thinking on their fieet. He’ll probably take up some cushy overseas posting for a bit and then retire.
Nup as I blogged before, not much foreman material in their ranks. Sheer lack of competition gives Costello the odds. And Ruddock is my roughie. If Nelson ever becomes leader (gosh even the Murdoch press call him ‘a pretender’) I’m emigrating. Just to make the brain drain complete.
I could not say I find Downer particularly charismatic but he shares with Howard a remarkable patience in the face of obnoxious media types and he is a wonderful bait to all those unfortunate types who still think there is a class war that they can win. “Leather furnishings”, oh my, so so Mark Latham.
I think he is perceived overseas as a mouthpiece to the PM and as having the PM’s ear in briefings.
On the Left of politics we have a lot of good ideas, a lot of wisdom, a lot of patience. But we are sure as hell crippled at the moment by a lack of leadership in the ALP.
On the party political level, the fact that the Libs are about to have our problem in spades gives me a certain grisly satisfaction.
But as a citizen et al of this society, the concept of all those clowns up there in Parliament donging each other with rubber chickens fair scares the life out of me.
I hate to say it, but we need smart Liberal leaders too.
Downer’s come out better than Rudd - and other libs (except Meister Howard of course) - from bouts with Tony Jones … sorry, what was the question again?
Seriously though, what naomi said about Downer.
And David, I don’t hate to say it at all. I think Abbott’s been doing very well with the bird flu matters - rational discourse, no pandering or patronising. I’d prefer he stayed in the portfolio, of course, but just sayin’ - and wishing I could do the same for Vanstone, Nelson, Ruddock et al.
The Libs wont go Downer after the 94- 95 debacle. I sincerely hope they do - it will go a long way to getting the ALP into the realm of the electable. He’s a fossilised remnant of British Australia, surviving only the the Adelaide hills. After 10 years, I think we’re losing awareness of how little he is taken seriously by the public, owing to the fact that under Howard, eveyone plays 12th man.
Wasnt just the stockings either - there was the ‘things that batter’ idiocy, and bursting into tears in the NT too.
Leather furnishings, James, is so Adelaide Club - which by the way, some of us used to clean to earn some cash to put ourselves through uni. And the Downers *are* part of the furniture here.
With all that talent and wisdom the next election should be a cakewalk for the ALP.
Andrew Bartlett has a post calling for nominations of inspiring Aussie politicians - local, state or federal. Inspiring…is not a word I associate with Aussie politicians.
rog - let me put your mind at rest. The ALP won’t win the next election.
Has anyone seen or read of the performance of Malcolm Turnbull at the Constitutional Convention and pre and post Republican Referendum? It seems that he is not one to be thwarted where he conceives an idea and decides to follow it through. With his powerful friends’ support, he could be a contender for PM? An interesting issue to watch in the coming couple of years will be the push to restrict the Senate to a two party chamber or ?to abolish it altogether? A referendum is already being touted for the vote at the next federal election on the issue of parliamentary terms. Confusion is sure to reign for the public with that one. Imagine the effect of running the question of Senate powers at the same time? They could toss in the Republican issue just to top it all off?