It’s that time of year again. In the pleasing absence of any horrendous stories like the Tsunami last year, the Australian media sinks into its holiday torpor (and pauses only to recycle no doubt long prepared paeans of praise to Kerry Packer), and commentary turns to reflection on 2005 and predictions for 2006. Personally, I miss the stories that used to feature in the tabloid press with astrologers’ tips - most seemed to feature predictions about Mother Theresa and Princess Diana, though none as far as I can recall picked the near coincidence of their deaths. Australian politics must be so tedious, or its reporting so personality driven, that columnists both at Fairfax and The Australian turn their attention to pointing out how they were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s not too difficult if you cite yourself and others selectively, I guess. I didn’t notice that any of the pundits picked the Howard Senate majority, an event you would have given very long odds on. The time scale of some of the commentary is amazingly narrow, with the assumption that the starting off point is - say - the events of the last month. Recently, I noticed a slight change in the polls seized on by the commentariat leading to numerous (and nearly identical) pronouncements that the public were coming round to acceptance of the IR laws. That’s almost certainly a premature call. Similarly, some of the longer term trends can be missed, as Michael Costello points out, lost in the pack mentality of the media and its seemingly infinite ability to respond to government spin. And what’s rarely remarked on is the underlying ways in which all our lives are changing. Surface froth and bubble, and the horse race, come first, and often without even the recognition that race callers have of its dynamism.
Prediction is inherently a risky business, because the future builds on itself incrementally, as it were. I’d have been totally gobsmacked if you told me in 1993 on the night of the Keating victory (ah, memories…) that 2006 would see the 10th year of John Howard’s reign. Similarly, I think most people watching the fall of the Eastern bloc states in 1989 would not have expected that a decade and a half later, war would have become perennial, if not eternal, and shrill voices of doom and civilisational collapse would haunt us daily. Even neo-cons like Francis Fukuyama caught the mood and decried the end to glorious narratives while triumphantly claiming history had reached its end in liberal democracy. This decade, yet to be given a satisfactory name, has had a very different feel to the 90s, when the big story was the putatively peaceful process of globalisation. Globalisation elides itself into Empire and War, and what does 2006 hold?
You tell us.
Elsewhere: A lot of the blogosphere is on hols, it would seem, but Anonymous Lefty doesn’t think 2005 was a fabbo year for all of us, and Andrew Bartlett links to a 2005 democracy quiz. Ms Fits worries about the predicted imminent demise of her liver, and has also noticed something about the newspapers, who’ve returned the compliment by way of an Age op/ed. Amanda has the good oil on gigs early in the new year.
2005 was fabulous for sport.
The best ever Ashes. compulsive viewing.
We beat Uruguay and are in the WORLD cup.
2006
The Ashes are now here. Barring changed pitches the Poms will thrash us of course we would never do anything like changing fast pitches to spinning ones would we.That’s cheating!
We play in the World Cup.
We beat Japan in the opening game, draw with Brazil and then beat the Croats which produces some violence in places in Australia.
We then best Italy go onto success in both quarterfinals and Semi-finals and finish runners up.
The ALP an nonce Guus Hiddink is their new leader and Centrebet will not take bets on next election!
“Recently, I noticed a slight change in the polls seized on by the commentariat leading to numerous (and nearly identical) pronouncements that the public were coming round to acceptance of the IR laws. That’s almost certainly a premature call. ”
I adree this is premature, but all that is happening here is the always-likely calming down following the polls reflecting the hyperbole surrounding the legislation’s final passage through the Parliament. The history of economic reform and public opinion is instructive here. Unilateral cutting of tariffs has always been unpopular. Privatisation was generally unpopular after the 1980s. Previous industrial relations reforms were unpopular before they were introduced, but broadly accepted afterwards. However, on election day electors make global judgments on governments, and provided the broad outcomes are ok governments tend to get re-elected. This is why the period of economic reform has been politically stable - only one change of government since 1983. If the economy is going well in 2007, the Liberals can survive the few bastard employer stories that will inevitably surface. The IR reforms will have little effect on most people, since for all practical purposes they are already operating in a market environment. “Acceptance” is the key term here - people will accept things that are part of a broader package, even if they do not support them.
Andrew, I agree that the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. I do think that some of the current published polls suggest that the experience of new entrants to the labour market (ie kids) will be a key factor in people’s perceptions of fairness - as well as just their own interests. But we’ll see.
Andrew,
I suggest if you think the debate between Arbitration and Collective Bargaining is the same as the IR debate today you just weren’t around then.
of course to hear Joe Isaac speak the virtues of collective bargaining and then become a convert to arbitration after becoming a Judge was a classic to behold
That Fukuyama “End of History” thing was a hoot wasn’t it? According to Sellars and Yeatman (1066 and All That) history ended after the Great War when America replaced Great Britain as Top Nation. A few decades later history ended again when, once more, America became top nation. Still makes me ROFLMAO from time to time.
Fukuyama should be doing stand-up - he’s a lot funnier than the likes of Rove.
2006 NRL Premiers - The Parramatta Eels
Ten points to the commenter at Ms Fits’ blog who wrote:
If they had done that I would totally forgive them for the hours that they took from my life that I will never get back while waiting for non-Kerry Packer news.
yeah what’s the big deal with the Kerry Packer guy? Did he really come down to earth to save us all? How confusing.
I think suzoz wrote the best (and most succinct) Packer obit:
I always felt really sorry for Packer’s polo ponies when I saw footage of him astride one of them.
I’m really not sure what to make of Kerry Packer as a person. For example, this article shows how the locals around the Hunter Valley regarded him. Also, the loyalty he got from his staff seems to be one that was freely given, not demanded. Hard to make it all out IMHO.
It’s difficult, because he’s not a public figure in the same sense that pollies or actors are - we don’t see enough of him on a regular basis to form our own judgements (which might nevertheless be wrong!). There’s obviously a lot of myth making going on - witness this article by an inhouse flak at The Australian comparing him to his alleged buddy John Howard - both hated elites and intellectuals but has an instinctive connection with the Australian people. Whatever!
Towards the end of 2006, civil war will finally break out in Iraq. The Shia aligning themselves with Iran will alienate the Sunni’s even further because of past problems between Saddam and Iran and the Kurds will grow frustrated that their expectations of their own state will not be realized under the Shia government.
North Korea will continue to make aggresive posturings and generally be ignored by the world community in comparison with events in the Middle East.
Historically the more educated have tended to be more right wing while the lesser educated working class have been left orientated. The reversal in recent times will continue. The right will continue to be wary of intellectuals and pitch their spiel towards the more ignorant to maintain support.
Australia will see an increase in USA companies setting up call centers in Australia with the implementation of the 2005 IR legislation. Expect companies such as Dell to be amongst the first.
“Andrew,
I suggest if you think the debate between Arbitration and Collective Bargaining is the same as the IR debate today you just weren’t around then.”
Bring Back EP etc: I was around - and heard a lot of hyperbole similar to what we heard in 2005. The argument differentiating these reforms from the others is that previous IR reforms no disadvantage tests means that there were few losers, and in privatisation and tariff cuts the “losers” were confined to those who lost their jobs in inefficient industries - many thousands of people, but not enough to swing elections. In theory, these IR reforms will affect a larger number of people. In practice, I believe the number who are negatively affected will be much smaller - and concentrated among people who won’t vote Liberal anyway. Most people’s votes will be guided by macro rather than micro considerations, and these should be marginally improved by the legislation. Despite the defeatist Labor mythology, they have done well in the polls many times during the Howard years. Every election is winnable for Labor. But Labor optimism about 2007 based on recent polls is premature. A general economic downturn would be much better for them.
Andrew,
There are a number of differences.
Firstly the Opposition did not openly campaign against Arbitration but like lower tariffs did so in certain electorates.
Collective Bargaining actually had a positive effect on Unions although few of them saw it at the time. The ability of the AMWU to ’strike’ went out the factory gate when the last in first to be fired went.
There was no power to unceremoniously fire any employee without a reason. Unions could on an even field fight obvious cases like sacking of union delegates for reasons that were seen to be rubbish.
Collective Bargaining led to a collection of interest between the company and the workforce.
Under the new laws it will be very hard for Unions to do much at all. People can be dismissed without reason.
And The ALP is committed to completely changing the laws if they win.
The power of the ‘profit motive above all else’ rule on which this country is now run will be the undoing of the health system when they put the health insurance charges up by the annual 7-8%, as flagged this week. Many of the people who took out such insurance unwillingly for the same reasons they now send their kids to private schools — because the government has downgraded the public systems so ruthlessly that one has no choice but to beggar oneself paying through the nose for education and health — will bail out, as will people whose budgets simply cannot take it any more. We will reason, rightly, that given the vast sums we have to fork out as ‘gap’ fees and other unsupported costs, it’s just not worth what it now costs us to insure. The health system will collapse into complete chaos and Tony Abbott will make sure he has a new portfolio before it happens.
The government won’t see this coming because it’s composed of senior ministers capable of saying things like ‘But workers will be allowed to have their accountants with them when they negotiate workplace agreements’ (K. Andrews). There is nil comprehension of what ‘ordinary’ people’s lives, and incomes, are like.
Which is, of course, what lost Paul Keating the election that produced the situation we have now.
Thanks for the link Mark. Do you suppose that somewhere there is a template for journos at the Australian? One that has numerous mentions of ‘elites’ and how they hate certain people. All you need to do is just change the names.
If the recollections of Packer (such as Gerald Stone’s) are anything to go by then Howard and Packer are very different. Though I do agree with the idea that Channel 9 has forged ahead by the old rule of never underestimate the public’s taste. What passes for current affairs at 9 in general is woeful. Imagine the media in Australia dominated by Murdoch and Packer?
Changing tangent slightly, what Packer did for cricket is well documented and I agree with the assessment that he changed the game for the better. However the 9 coverage is getting stale and listening to the ABC coverage is a much better option. On the way home the other day I listened to Peter Roebuck interview Zolani Bongco about his uncle who was a member of the ANC and eventually hanged by the apartheid government. All in between calling the day’s play. Fascinating.
One thing is for sure and that is that Anonymous Lefty does not think that 2005 was agood year for his ” boltwatch ” and now he does not allow any real debate there now having banned the two posters willing to challenge his asertions on the Writings Of Andrew Bolt. As one of those banned by him I won’t fill this commentary with the story, that is covered at my blog .
We are indeed fortuate that the world has not had another disaster like the Tsunami ( the earth quake in Pakistan comes close though)but let us take heart in the way that the problem has been confronted and the suffering of the victums has been addresssed , it may not be perfect but one year on and things are beginning to look a lot beter in that department .