More debate on Israel, Lebanon and Palestine

Since Peter’s second thread has reached 200 + comments and is therefore taking time to load, here’s another chance to continue the conversation.

One discussion starter might be the hypothesis being advanced by commentators in the Israeli Press that this war is a result of Olmert’s and Peretz’ political weakness and that its agenda and implementation are being driven by the military rather than the government.

As Uzi Benamin writes:

…two weeks into the war, it is coming across as a runaway train over which the government’s control is growing increasingly tenuous.

The decision to send large ground forces into southern Lebanon and to assign them targets further and further from the border is looking more of a derivative of the military dynamic than the outcome of any well-thought-out political consideration.

If that is the case, of course, it makes any political solution that may be on the horizon that much harder to achieve.

People might also like to discuss the situation in the Gaza, which is receiving little media attention now.

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143 Responses to “More debate on Israel, Lebanon and Palestine”


  1. 1 RobertNo Gravatar

    Just going back to the legality of serving in a foreign army. Katz asked about the liability of Australians serving in the IDF under Section 6 of the Crimes (Foreign Incursions and Recruitment) Act 1978 (Cth). He should have continued reading to this subsection, which I think answers his question:

    (4) Nothing in this section applies to an act done by a person in the course of, and as part of, the person’s service in any capacity in or with:

    (a) the armed forces of the government of a foreign State…

  2. 2 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    Thanks Mark.
    Condi seems to be suffering some delusions in the light of what can be described as a faltering Israeli campaign and resistance that is in some respects kicking a lot of Israeli butt. It may turn out that Israel wants a ceasefire before Hezbollah wants one. The longer this goes on the way it is unfolding so far, the greater will be Hezbollah’s psychological victory with increasing moral support from the Sunni regimes masses (and converse dangers for their leaderships) and the less likely any organisation NATO/UN etc will want to try to do what Israel has failed to do ie disarm Hezbollah.

    (Message to Condi: Whatever made you think Hezbollah, a political and military entity could be destroyed?)
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1830911,00.html

    Rice, has propelled herself forward as chief cheerleader. “What we’re seeing here,” she said, “are the birth pangs of a new Middle East.” At every press conference she repeats the phrase “a new Middle East” as though its incantation is magical.

    Her jaunt to the region is intended to lend the appearance of diplomacy in order to forestall it. As explained to me by several senior state department officials, Rice is entranced by a new “domino theory”: Israel’s attacks will demolish Hizbullah; the Lebanese will blame Hizbullah and destroy its influence; and the backlash will extend to Hamas, which will collapse. From the administration’s point of view, this is a proxy war with Iran (and Syria) that will inexplicably help turn around Iraq. “We will prevail,” Rice says.

    \

    Re the battle of Bint Jbeil, contrary to earlier reports of Israeli control Fisk reports as follows:
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14223.htm

    In Bint Jbeil, meanwhile, another bloodbath was taking place. Claiming to “control” this southern Lebanese town, the Israelis chose to walk into a Hizbollah trap. The moment they reached the deserted marketplace, they were ambushed from three sides, their soldiers falling to the ground under sustained rifle fire. The remaining Israeli troops - surrounded by the “terrorists” they were supposed to liquidate - desperately appealed for help, but an Israeli Merkava tank and other vehicles sent to help them were also attacked and set on fire. Up to 17 Israeli soldiers may have died so far in this disastrous operation.

    And I thought birth pangs had nothing to do with killing babies.

  3. 3 RobNo Gravatar

    Robert, yeah, I made the point on the other thread that the act is directed against mercenaries.

  4. 4 RobNo Gravatar

    For Peter’s benefit, it might be worth repeating a quote from the previous thread:

    “A high-ranking source in the Northern Command told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday that Bint Jbail could not be attacked by air since there were still several hundred civilians there. The officer said that the fighting in the town would continue at least for a day or two.�

    In other words, the IDF chose the more dangerous way to pacify Bint Jbeil precisely to spare the lives of civilians at the cost of those of its own soldiers.

  5. 5 KatzNo Gravatar

    Thanks guys.

    Silly old me.

    But what would the status of David Hicks be, given that the Australian Govt didn’t recognise the Taliban regime in Afghanistan?

    I believe Ruddock claims that Hicks is beyond Australian law.

    How is Hicks not liable under the Foreign Incursions Act?

  6. 6 RobNo Gravatar

    Katz, I think because Hicks was not operating against his ‘host’ country.

  7. 7 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    the IDF chose the more dangerous way to pacify Bint Jbeil precisely to spare the lives of civilians at the cost of those of its own soldiers.

    If that were so Rob, (ha ha spare the lives of civilians, tell us another one) can you tell us how dropping bombs kills soldiers hidden in bunkers, which Hez undoubtedly has dug, reinforced, camoflaged and supplied all over the place?

    (Oh, I know, you write “Ali Hezbollah c/- Bunker No 101, 6 Foot Underground, Bint Jbail”, [no return address please] on the smart bomb.)

  8. 8 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    Katz:

    I believe Ruddock claims that Hicks is beyond Australian law.

    How is Hicks not liable under the Foreign Incursions Act?

    What a naughty question ….mind you, it’s the one I asked too way back when the Australian government first did legal circus-tricks to block the return of Hicks and Habibi to face justice in Australia. The line I took at the time was that IF they were G-d m-f terrorists then they were OUR G-d m-f terrorists and we are perfectly capable of dealing with them ourselves.

    Now Katz, try finding an answer to your own question ….. then let’s know here what little surprises you bump into …. :-)

  9. 9 KatzNo Gravatar

    Hmm.

    But presumably the Australian government recognised a particular regime as legitimate in Afghanistan. Had the Australian government withdrawn recognition of some prior Afghan regime?

    If such recognition had not been withdrawn, then the Taliban were an insurgency against that “host” government.

    And thus Hicks may be deemed to have committed an incursion against the sovereignty of Afghanistan.

  10. 10 RobNo Gravatar

    Much easier, and tactically more sensible, to attack the entrenchments with deep penetrating munitions and kill anyone coming out of their foxholes from gunships. Don’t be more of an ass than you can help, Peter.

  11. 11 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    Oh brilliant Rob, when you don’t know where the bunkers/foxholes/whatever are, use cluster bombs indiscriminately over the whole area for a one in a 1000 chance. God help any soldiers following your sorry ass in battle.

    Remember Vietnam, remember the underground facilities, the pop holes, the camoflage?

  12. 12 ChristoNo Gravatar

    Much easier, and tactically more sensible, to attack the entrenchments with deep penetrating munitions and kill anyone coming out of their foxholes from gunships.

    It’s a pity the IDF didn’t take your advice, Rob, before they decided to bomb the crap out of innocent civilians Beirut and any other populated city in Lebanon, isn’t it?

  13. 13 RobNo Gravatar

    It is only a small village, not hundreds of miles of jungle. The civilians had been leafleted to get out. In the logic of war, the IDF’s objective should have been to complete their operational assignment in the most effective way possible, preserving their own lives, and taking those of the enemy. C’est la guerre.

    However, I’m as much of a soldier as you are a lawyer, so I’ll cease pontificating on the rights and wrongs of the IDF’s tactics in this case.

  14. 14 RobNo Gravatar

    Dunno, Katz, it gets too complicated for me round about there. Maybe Peter can help, with his awesome legal credentials.

  15. 15 LeinadNo Gravatar

    Goofy-goofy Peretz and Olmert have only themselves to blame for this clusterfuck. The IDF dumped this plan on their desk as a fait accompli and they signed up without looking at the logic.

    Airpower, as a brief look at 20th century history should instruct anyone only goes so far even against ‘conventional’ armed forces and state infrastructure. Against a well-prepared, well-equipped guerilla army like Hez it’s useless. Anyone who advised them that a few weeks of bombardment and border raids would be enough to significantly ‘dismantle/degrade/attrit/neutralise/weasel-word-for-slaughter of the hour’ needs their head checked.

    Now, having dived into this huge nest of barbed-wire, they can’t pull out without looking like bloody fools while Hez has every interest in keeping them ensnared as long as possible. Israel has foolishly destroyed a country’s infrastructure in the hope that it would make them allies, and now has no new friends, no gains and many more enemies than when they started. Their international allies, the US and the UK have shot whatever credibility they had left by dint of dithering and sheer callousness.

    We’re all losers in this bloody farce.

  16. 16 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    It is only a small village

    Yeah right, with 200,000 inhabitants.
    http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/24/D8J2EARO7.html

  17. 17 MarkNo Gravatar

    Just to clarify the situation with regard to the legal sovereignty in Afghanistan - the regime of Burhanuddin Rabbani was recognised by all countries bar three as Afghanistan’s legal government until he formally transferred power to Karzai in December 2001 and Karzai’s interim authority was recognised by the UN Security Council.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burhanuddin_Rabbani

  18. 18 MarkNo Gravatar

    The civilians had been leafleted to get out.

    Where are they supposed to go and how are they to get out when almost all the roads and bridges leading from Southern Lebanon have been bombed? The leaflet thing is a cruel deception.

    Trucks are often bombed anyway. They don’t stop to ask if it’s carrying missiles or refugees, but blow up first and don’t bother to ask questions later.

  19. 19 KatzNo Gravatar

    the regime of Burhanuddin Rabbani was recognised by all countries bar three as Afghanistan’s legal government until he formally transferred power to Karzai in December 2001

    Therefore the following does not apply to David Hicks:

    Section 6 of the Crimes (Foreign Incursions and Recruitment) Act 1978 (Cth). He should have continued reading to this subsection, which I think answers his question:

    (4) Nothing in this section applies to an act done by a person in the course of, and as part of, the person’s service in any capacity in or with:

    (a) the armed forces of the government of a foreign State…

    Therefore, given that David Hicks was captured while bearing arms for the Taliban, which was an insurgency against the sovereignty of Afghanistan, he may have a case to answer under Sect. 6 of the Crimes (Foreign Incursions and Recruitment) Act 1978 (Cth).

    I’m sure Mr Ruddock will be eager to follow up on this one.

  20. 20 MarkNo Gravatar

    Interesting to observe that for some, war and loss of civilian life provides just another chance for bashing “elites” and bemoaning “the West’s moral breakdown”:

    http://www.melaniephillips.com/diary/?p=1292

    Unsurprisingly the link comes from Rafe, whose post is all assertion and no argument:

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=1949

  21. 21 RobNo Gravatar

    Pietro, the population of the entire caza (canton) is around 58,000.

  22. 22 RobNo Gravatar

    I’m not able to comment at Catallaxy anymore but if I could I’d agree with Jason:

    “Frankly I’m just sick of this whole business and don’t even want to think about it anymore.”

  23. 23 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    Disinformation/Propaganda:

    The civilians had been leafleted to get out….It is only a small village…spare the lives of civilians at the cost of those of its own soldiers.

    Military madness:

    kill anyone coming out of their foxholes from gunships.

    I think there must be an Israeli internet trojan/bot around that comes to life whenever “terrorist” and “Israel” is mentioned. Must be that new version “Robot”

  24. 24 RobNo Gravatar

    Good one, Peter.

  25. 25 boredinHKNo Gravatar

    From Antony Loewenstein’s blog - a good piece on the leadup to the war in Lebanon.

    http://www.merip.org/mero/mero072506.html

  26. 26 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    Leinad:
    It’s even worse than that. This whole blunder may get the United States and Israel kicked out of the United Nations. ((What do you mean, where will the UN go? There are at least 3 places on Planet Earth that would be happy to give UN HQ et al a new home)).

    There is a place for the use or threatened use of massive military force …. but this was definitely NOT one of them. Too late now. Even if the IDF kills every member of Hizbollah, they have unintentionally sown dragons-teeth and ensured the ultimate annihilation of Israel. All Australia can do now is to decide if we can take in any survivors and, if so, how many.

    Katz:

    And thus Hicks may be deemed to have committed an incursion against the sovereignty of Afghanistan.

    that’s not a bad start; as I said, the Australian govt’s legal circus-tricks …. it gets worse …….

  27. 27 KatzNo Gravatar

    Thanks for the heads-up Graham.

    I did a quick Google and discovered that you, among others, have already travelled down this path.

    Has anyone in authority pronounced on this precise issue?

    I’d be fascinated to know.

  28. 28 Jason SoonNo Gravatar

    Uh Rob, why can’t you comment on Catallaxy anymore?

  29. 29 RobNo Gravatar

    Get this error message.

    Forbidden
    You don’t have permission to access /cgi-sys/php-fastcgi/wp-comments-post.php on this server.

    You may need to create an index.html page or enable the directory browsing by creating an .htaccess file containing “Options Indexes”.

    Additionally, a 500 Internal Server Error error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

  30. 30 MarkNo Gravatar

    Just reported on Lateline - the US have nixed a security council resolution condemning deliberate attacks on UN personnel. WTF?

  31. 31 KatzNo Gravatar

    Graham,

    I’ve partially answered my own question. Here is an extract from an interview between Ruock and Karl Stefanovic

    TODAY SHOW CHANNEL 9

    THURSDAY 4 AUGUST 2005

    http://www.ag.gov.au/agd/WWW/MinisterRuddockHome.nsf/Page/Interview_Transcripts_2005_Transcripts_4_August_2005_-_Transcript_-_Today_Show_Interview

    STEFANOVIC: Mr Ruddock, we only have you for a limited time this morning. I just want to touch on one more issue. Just on David Hicks, a legal expert from New South Wales has suggested David Hicks could be tried here at home, contrary to the Government’s opinion, for breaching the Geneva Convention, the Crimes Act, and the Foreign Incursions and Recruitment Act. Is that a possibility?

    PHILIP RUDDOCK: Well I looked at the opinion yesterday with my officers and our view was that it concluded nothing new from the time when all of these issues were examined by the Director of Public Prosecutions to ascertain whether or not Hicks could be charged under our laws that were in place at that time. And even in William’s opinion it was acknowledged that it may be necessary to retrospectively validate certain provisions in order to ensure that they might be able to apply in Hicks’ case.

    And the concern we’ve had always has been that yes, if the conduct in which he engaged was undertaken today, there are a range of offences which he would be able to be charged. But they were not in place at the time that he was engaged with the Taliban and training in Afghanistan. So we are in a situation where on the advice from the experts, no charges could be brought here. And the opinion advances it no further.

    The bolded bits would appear to be quite dubious.

  32. 32 BartlebyNo Gravatar

    To return to the original question: there is nothing new about asymmetrical war. It has being going on since the Spanish Resistance to Napoleon in 1808 where the term guerilla was invented. The whole of the post world war two world was composed of the cold war, on the one hand, and a host of partisan/guerilla wars (does anyone remember Vietnam and the bombing and invasion of Cambodia?), on the other hand.

    The fact is Hizbollah is a partisan movement and like all guerillas move through the people like a fish through the sea, as Mao put it. If they weren’t popular they wouldn’t survive and it can’t be defeated from the air nor by reservists. They know they are seen as terrorists to be annihilated so they in turn inflict annihilation. As usual, Carl Schmitt got it right:

    Die moderne Partisan erwartet von Feind weder Recht noch Gnade. Er hat sich von der konventionellen Feindschaft des gezaehmten und gehegten Krieges abgewandt und in den Bereich einer anderen, der wirklichen Feindschaft begeben, die sich durch Terror und Gegenterror bis zur Vernichtung steigert

    And again:

    Der Partisan kaempt in einer politischen Front … Er weiss, und laesst es darauf ankommen, dass ihn der Feind ausserhalb von Recht, Gesetz und Ehre stellt

    What is new is that the Cold War is over and the era of the Middle East as the terrain of conventional war is over. It ended with the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, on the one hand, and the intifada in 1987, on the other hand. Hizbollah emerged as a partisan movement out of the Lebanon invasion and Hamas emerged as a partisan movement in the same year that the intifada began. They are both political movements with political aims and labelling them as terrorists is the usual response of strong states who love nothing more than pulverising weak states and hate partisan movements whose mobility wounds them ceaselessly.

    Schmitt again:

    Der Partisan, der den nationalen Boden gegen den fremden Eroberer verteidigt, wurde zum Helden, den einen wirklichen Feind wirklich bekaempfte.

  33. 33 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    Katz:
    No worries.

    Mark:
    D*mn, missed it. I am listening to Philip Adams Late Night Live on the current situation instead - whilst doing hunt&peck on the keyboard. Recommend everyone listen to LNL repeat tomorrow at 4:05pm AEST on ABC Radio National (think it’s also podcast).

    Well may you say “WTF”. Could it be that the Crazy Temporarily-Unimpeached Emperor of the (as yet) United States is actually trying to get America OUT of the United States? Just a thought.

  34. 34 ShaunNo Gravatar

    The US objected to the use of the word ‘deliberate’ regarding the attack on the UN outpost. Which means that if the following is true then maybe the word should have been ‘incompotetent.’

    Not sure which is the more distrurbing.

  35. 35 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    Mark:
    Ooops. My last post should have said “… to get America out of the United Nations. ….”.

    Katz:
    Thanks. My previous post appeared before your 10:37pm one in which you quoted .

    PHILIP RUDDOCK: Well I looked at the opinion yesterday with my officers and ….

    should he have added ” …. and on the orders of certain American officers utterly loyal to President G W Bush regardless of their duty to the United States, ….”??

    Don’t worry about any stench arising from Australia’s eagerness to go for retrospective legislation at the drop of a hat, try the translation of the 1964 Afghanistan Constitution, Chapter Three - The People, which says that “No person may be punished except under a law already in effect”. I wonder if that still applied when Hicks was in Afghanistan?

  36. 36 observaNo Gravatar

    This is essentially the problem Israel faced with Hesbollah
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-2281184_1,00.html
    Now Israel is not naive enough to believe it can remove Hesbollah completely from southern Lebanon. After all it still has a recalcitrant Hamas on its borders. It’s aim is to destroy the business and infrastructure interests of Hesbollah as a functioning state actor within Lebanon. Without that Hesbollah is just another ruler of the rubble like Hamas. That leaves the Lebanese Shia to decide whether their future lies with Hesbollah or greater Lebanon. The West will be giving Iranians the same offer fairly soon.

  37. 37 LeinadNo Gravatar

    Aside from the odiousness of devastating an entire state and impoverishing half a million people to ‘destroy’ a guerilla group as a ’state actor’ (whatever the hell that means. With bomber-boosters like Obby the less successful the bombing, the vaguer the goals), this tactic just isn’t going to work. Hezbollah (and its ilk) thrives not on sound business investments and maturing T-bonds (jeez Obby, where do you get this stuff?) but on Angry Young Men, of which there will be no shortage in this wonderful ruined future Condi has planned.

    We are witnessing a new dawn in West Blogistan. The LPDF is actively engaged in a program to degrade Observa’s capacity as a blog actor…

  38. 38 MarkNo Gravatar

    Shorter Leinad: obs, you’re weird, dude.

  39. 39 RobertNo Gravatar

    Katz: your point regarding David Hicks is a good one, which has been raised before by legal academics and professional organisations.

  40. 40 observaNo Gravatar

    Leinad,
    Hesbollah in Lebanon was not simply a ‘guerilla group’ as you put it. They were the defacto govt of southern Lebanon in every way, as well as virtually ‘owning’ their autonomous economy.(did you read my link?) They used that economic power to build a war machine to destroy Israel, albeit with the collusion of Iran and Syria. Israel has understood that implicitly for some time now. When Hesbollah attacked Israel in an act of war along with Hamas, Israel has reacted swiftly to destroy the threat. Hesbollah can’t cry foul as the aggressor now. I agree it’s a great pity Hesbollah’s actions have created the odiousness you speak of for their constituency, but that is no less than what they and their backers continually plot for Israel.

    Mark,
    Considering the collection of dudes, dudettes and duds that hang out at LP, I’m fascinated to hear their explanations as to why they favour the Hesbollah/Hamas/Syria/Iran view of the world. Now that really is beyond weird.

  41. 41 LeinadNo Gravatar

    Obby, as has been pointed out, by myself and dozens of other posters, Israel’s bombing campaign is not wholly focused on Hezbollah or it’s ‘constituency’ (as if it ever could be - like those 500 pound bombs have voting records written into their guidance system ‘67% DRUZE DISTRICT: ABORT! ABORT!’) as you and others have asserted, but has spread far and wide, attacking Christian cities, nationwide road and airport infrastructure, Anti-Syrian/Hezbollah TV stations, pharmaceutical plants, milk factories and paper mills.

    This strategy is cruel and indiscriminate, but even worse, it’s just plain stupid. Hezbollah’s strength doesn’t come from ‘infrastructure’ but ‘pissed off people with a grudge against Israel’ and by bombing the country to rubble, Israel is making them stronger, and the anti-Hezbollah forces weaker.

    This ain’t Speed duuuude: shooting the hostage don’t work.

  42. 42 ShaunNo Gravatar

    Considering the collection of dudes, dudettes and duds that hang out at LP, I’m fascinated to hear their explanations as to why they favour the Hesbollah/Hamas/Syria/Iran view of the world.

    You are either with obby or against obby. Such is the peril of the false dilemma.

  43. 43 KatzNo Gravatar

    Thanks Robert.

    Perhaps the next step is political.

    PHILIP RUDDOCK: Well I looked at the opinion yesterday [4 August 2005] with my officers [in the Attorney General’s Dept.] and our view was that it concluded nothing new from the time when all of these issues were examined by the Director of Public Prosecutions to ascertain whether or not Hicks could be charged under our laws that were in place at that time. And even in William’s opinion it was acknowledged that it may be necessary to retrospectively validate certain provisions in order to ensure that they might be able to apply in Hicks’ case.

    Is this advice accessible via Freedom of Information?

  44. 44 calNo Gravatar

    Mark,

    Not sure why, but a comment I posted last night seems to have been moderated.

  45. 45 MichaelNo Gravatar

    Uri Avnery says of the current situation

    In general, when army officers are determining the policy of a nation, serious moral problems arise.

    In war, a commander is obliged to take hard decisions. He sends soldiers into battle, knowing that many will not return and others will be maimed for life. He hardens his heart. As General Amos Yaron told his officers after the Sabra and Shatila massacre: “Our senses have been blunted!”

    Years of the occupation regime in the Palestinian territories have caused a terrible callousness as far as human lives are concerned. The killing of ten to twenty Palestinians every day, including women and children, as happens now in Gaza, does not agitate anyone. It doesn’t even make the headlines. Gradually, even routine expressions like “We regret…we had no intention…the most moral army in the world…” and all the other trite phrases are not heard anymore.

    Now this numbness is revealing itself in Lebanon. Air Force officers, calm and comfortable, sit in front of the cameras and speak about “bundles of targets”, as if they were talking about a technical problem, and not about living human beings. They speak about driving hundreds of thousands of human beings from their homes as an imposing military achievement, and do not hide their satisfaction in face of human beings whose whole life has been destroyed. The word that is most popular with the generals at this time is “pulverize” - we pulverize, they are being pulverized, neighborhoods are pulverized, buildings are pulverized, people are pulverized.

    Even the launching of rockets at our towns and villages does not justify this ignoring of moral considerations in fighting the war. There were other ways of responding to the Hizbullah provocation, without turning Lebanon into rubble. The moral numbness will be transformed into grievous political damage, both immediate and long term. Only a fool or worse ignores moral values - in the end, they always take revenge.

    He goes on to say

    All this time, the United States has been using all its might in order to prevent the cessation of hostilities. All signs indicate that it is pushing Israel towards a war with Syria - a country that has ballistic missiles with chemical and biological warheads.

    Only one thing is already certain on the 11th day of the war: Nothing good will come of it. Whatever happens - Hizbullah will emerge strengthened. If there had been hopes in the past that Lebanon would slowly become a normal country, where Hizbullah would be deprived of a pretext for maintaining a military force of its own, we have now provided the organization with the perfect justification: Israel is destroying Lebanon, only Hizbullah is fighting to defend the country.

    And concludes

    From this war nothing good will come - not for Israel, not for Lebanon and not for Palestine. The “New Middle East” that will be its result will be a worse place to live in

    .

    http://informationclearinghouse.info/article14220.htm

    Also there is an interview with him here:

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14229.htm

    He starts off by saying:

    On the 15th day of the war, Hizbullah is functioning and fighting. That by itself will go down in the annals of the Arab peoples as a shining victory.

    When a featherweight boxer faces a heavyweight and is still standing in the 15th round - that is a victory, whatever the final outcome.

    For the way out of this war:

    To put an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which causes ferment throughout the Middle East.

    To draw Hamas out of this hostile front, by negotiating with the elected Palestinian government.

    To reach a settlement in Lebanon. For it to last, this settlement must include Hizbullah and Syria. This will oblige us to give the Golan back.

    It should be remembered that Ehud Barak had already agreed to that and almost signed a peace treaty, similar to the one signed with Egypt, but unfortunately chickened out at the last moment for fear of public opinion.

    Meantime, Robert Fisk asks

    Is it possible - is it conceivable - that Israel is losing its war in Lebanon?

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14223.htm

    And Ashraf Ismail gives 6 reasons why Israel can’t win the war in Lebanon, arguing that:

    For all of these reasons, Israeli attempts to impose terms on Lebanon, or to redraw the political map of Lebanon, or even to impose a NATO force upon southern Lebanon, are not militarily feasible nor politically achievable, and if attempted, will prove ultimately unsustainable.

    As will soon be demonstrated by events on the ground, Israel will not be able to destroy or even disarm Hezbollah. Neither will Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, or Syria permit Israel or America to dictate terms to them. Consequently, if Israel lingers too long in southern Lebanon, its presence will be paid for at such a high cost, that it will be forced to withdraw in ignominy, as it has so many times in the past.

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14226.htm

    And consequently he dreads that

    it is precisely because America and Israel are losing influence over global events, that an American attack upon Iran in 2007 becomes more likely. God help us all.

    what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

  46. 46 MarkNo Gravatar

    Sorry, cal, I can’t find your comment anywhere.

  47. 47 LiamNo Gravatar

    This ain’t Speed duuuude: shooting the hostage don’t work.

    Ten points, Leniad, for the best line of the week, nay, month!

  48. 48 adrianNo Gravatar

    Yes, the clarity of Yeats’ words rings as true as ever:

    TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

  49. 49 Bring Back EPNo Gravatar

    observa you are beeing totally dishonest in conflating criticism of Israel with support of Hezbollah, very blairite in fact.

    Capturing two soldiers is an act of war?

    You must have been advising the German high Command in 1914

  50. 50 MarkNo Gravatar

    Is Obs that old?

  51. 51 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    Katz [8:29am]:

    Is this advice accessible via Freedom of Information?

    Don’t know …. but if it popped up in a Royal Commission there would be an epidemic of sudden-onset memory loss :-)

    Robert [at 1:41am]

    Katz: your point regarding David Hicks is a good one, which has been raised before by legal academics and professional organisations.

    Indeed ….so why didn’t they do anything about the flashing red warning lights and the alarm bells????

    Observa:
    I’m afraid Israelis have really lost the plot - and sadly, because of that they will probably lose their existence - because twice now, they allowed their emotions to completely overrule any strategy they may have had for survival and prosperity. First: in electing Ariel Sharon …. what mind-altering substances went into their water supplies for that to happen? There is no other rational explanation for that incident of mass lunacy. Second: by trying to solve what was essentially a very serious political and social problem with bullets, shells and bombs alone. Of course suicide-bombers killing and maiming innocent people would enrage anyone; so too are rocket attacks and the capture of one’s own soldiers … but that’s no excuse for stupidity. It was not a miliary problem until Israel went on the rampage in the Lebanon and in Gaza …. to the delight of Hizbollah and its friends. For a nation that purports to safeguard the memory of the Holocaust, Israel has now completely ignored the lessons of how the Nazis gained fanatical adherents and rose to power in Germany. It is obvious that Hizbollah did learn those lessons very well indeed.

  52. 52 KatzNo Gravatar

    Plea to posters:

    Please don’t try too hard to change Observa’s mind.

    If you succeeded you’d expunge some precious moments of mirth.

    And this sad old world is short enough of mirth already.

  53. 53 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    Katz:
    Okay then. I’m all for mirth, glee, fun, chuckles and joking …. beats h*ll out of the alternatives.

  54. 54 calNo Gravatar

    No worries Mark

  55. 55 James HamiltonNo Gravatar

    I’ve always said that post WTC it is not just a crime punishable by violent death to be a terrorist, tragically in a de facto senseit is also a similar crime to live next door to one, or to be the young child of one, or to be the young child of somebody who happens to be living next door to one. Don’t blame Israel the US or Australia for this shameful turn of events, blame the guilty. The cause of Israel is just as is the cause of the COW in Iraq. These people do not bomb countries because they feel like it, they bomb them because the needs of the civilised world require it.

  56. 56 LeinadNo Gravatar

    James, do you know of any good sleepwear/bedding places, around?

    Cause I was just wondering - how do you sleep at night?

  57. 57 ShaunNo Gravatar

    An interesting twist is that Al Qaeda has raised it’s ugly head regarding Lebanon.

    It can be seen either as a call for Shia and Sunni Muslimes to join against Israel. Or, as others have mentioned, Al Qaeda is upset that attention is not focused on them. Hezbollah is getting all the press while Al Qaeda seems to have become yesterday’s terrorist.

    Either way it isn’t good especially if Al Qaeda decide that they need attention again.

  58. 58 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    Interesting twist indeed as Juan Cole says:
    http://www.juancole.com/2006/07/al-qaeda-enters-fray-israeli.html

    Zawahiri has turned to pan Islam and the Near Enemy. He is willing to help Nasrallah and the Qassam Brigades. It is a historic about face. It could be significant. More later.

    Marginalises the corrupt Sunni regimes (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia etc) in the eyes of their populaces just that little bit more.

  59. 59 KatzNo Gravatar

    Oh good, a fresh batch of RWDB chickenhawks. My favourite whipping boys.

    They’re easily spotted. They thump the drums of war and proclaim their absolute detemination to confront evil with the last drop of their neighbours’ kids blood.

    Instead of wearing out their trigger fingers typing words of blood and steel, they should put them to proper warlike use.

    For all you keyboard warriors, here’s the Australian Armed Forces recruitment website:

    http://www.careerjet.com.au/cgi-bin/user/search.cgi?r=32561&c=3022&t=&s=

    Click! Click!

  60. 60 observaNo Gravatar

    This is the act of war(from Wikipedia) that started the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

    “At 9:05 AM local time (06:05 CET), on 12 July 2006, Hezbollah initiated a Katyusha rocket and mortar attack on Israeli military positions and villages of northern Israel, injuring at least 8 Israelis[18]. Afterwards, a ground contingent of Hezbollah militants attacked two Israeli armored Humvees on a routine patrol along the Israel-Lebanon border near the Israeli village of Zar’it with anti-tank rockets, capturing two Israeli soldiers, and killing eight.[19] According to the Lebanese police force and Hezbollah, the Israeli soldiers were attacked and captured on the Lebanese side of the border on 12 July during a mission to infiltrate the Lebanese town of Ayta al-Sha`b,[20] although remains of the Humvees were found in Israel. [21]”

    Have you all got that now? Not only that fact, but the fact that Hesbollah, an Iranian sponsored terrorist group committed to the destruction of Israel had been building a military state within the state of Lebanon, contrary to your beloved UN’s peace settlement in fact. For the past 6 years Hesbollah actively secreted a system of military bunkers and fortifications among the Lebanese civilian community and stocked them with munitions and thousands of offensive rockets, again contrary to your beloved UN. Notice that unlike Israel who builds air raid shelters for its villagers and townsfolk, Hesbollah only build bunkers for military hardware and terrorists. Hence the different civilian casualty rates. All this and then the intellectual pygmies here at LP reckon Israel should cop it sweet when Hesbollah attack their towns and kill and capture their citizenry. Presumably they were meant to go on copping it sweet in order to earn the undying admiration of the usual suspects here at LP. Those same fools who would happily see AmenJihad’s Iranian terrorists sally forth against all and sundry, from the comfort of a nuclear umbrella. What is it with lefties and their love of dictators. Is it the theocratic mantra or the raw power that appeals most here I wonder. Of course Israelis understand they’re no better at debating moral ambiguities than anyone else here. Just that they need to be good at war. Whilst they have often been good at that as rank underdogs, they certainly don’t feel the need to go back there in order to be the chivalrous dead of history. They’ll leave that to those that worship suicide more avidly.

    Ah yes, where would we be without Al-Quaida? You gotta laugh at those who think feeding the croc will keep him off their backs. Osama’s right hand man Ayman al-Zawahiri says AQ will join the fight and AQ saw “all the world as a battlefield” He said the fighting was “a jihad for God’s sake and will last until our religion prevails… from Spain to Iraq.” (todays advertiser pge4) So much for lefty Zapatero pulling Spain out of Iraq to lie low eh? Another dopey infidel feeding the croc.

  61. 61 James HamiltonNo Gravatar

    I’m not that fresh, I’ve been here before but been away on holidays.

    I never claimed to have a clear conscience or to sleep well at night. I sure as hell don’t let myself off the hook for being a western capitalist by pretending to barrack for the underdogs against the great satan and its conga line of suckholes. My God, in life we rarely get moral choices as easy as the one between a decent modern democratic and peaceful nation trying to survive surrounded by medievel butchers who’d kill you as quick as they’d kill me (and they’d be right in one respect, we are the same).

    So I am only given the choice of joing the defence force or joining the peace pansies. It’s not really a fair cop. It’s like me saying to you, if you like Hezbollah so much why don’t you move to South Lebanon. Though maybe theyre both fair questions. Probably both organisations would have neither of us.

  62. 62 calNo Gravatar

    James Hamilton

    My God, in life we rarely get moral choices as easy as the one between a decent modern democratic and peaceful nation trying to survive surrounded by medievel butchers who’d kill you as quick as they’d kill me (and they’d be right in one respect, we are the same).

    In total agreement James. Lebanon was a democracy before this butchery by their neighbour.

  63. 63 ShaunNo Gravatar

    Peter,

    I’ll be interested in Cole’s follow up. My guess is that Al Qaeda aren’t interested so much in a pan Islamic uprising but more of using the situation for their own good and some waving of hands to reminds us they are still around. There is a huge ideological divide with Hezbollah and Al Qaeda that I don’t think iwill ever be crossed

  64. 64 KatzNo Gravatar

    JH.

    You weren’t presented with an either/or. You were presented with an open choice.

    If you choose not to become a belligerent you may have very good reasons for not doing so.

    In return, please do opponents of the various wars in the Middle East the same courtesy.

    Has it not occurred to you that many of us support the existence of the State of Israel, even perhaps in its present expanded status, and that many of us want a stable, secular Iraq?

    Our disagreements are over the methods. Some opponents follow a moral line. Others, among whom I count myself, follow a utilitarian line. I, for one, believe the present US strategies in the Middle East are suicidally moronic. They will not achieve proclaimed ends and they’ll make things worse.

    I have argued that line since before the invasion of Iraq. And I see no reason to change it.

    I respect the moralist position, but I find it to be somewhat irrelevant to realities on the ground.

    I have contempt for simpletons who believe that there is a military solution to these problems and who continually return to that course of action in the face of patent failure.

    An analogy. The best teachers you had were those who had no need to use or threaten violence. The worst teachers you had were those who used nothing but violence, and when they used it they used it ineffectually.

    Some classes are very unruly. The best teachers find a way. The worst are swallowed up and spat out.

    We all want well-ordered classrooms for our kids. Which teachers would you sack?

  65. 65 RobNo Gravatar

    Update on the IDF attack on the UN post in Lebanon, for those not already aware of it. It seems Hizbollah was using it as cover for its attacks on Israel.

  66. 66 James HamiltonNo Gravatar

    Oh, please. We are not talking about a class room we are talking about a war. Thank you for your reply and I will take up no more time/space on a thread that I’ve arrived at late and has probably moved on from this fairly fundamental phase anyway.

  67. 67 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    There is a huge ideological divide with Hezbollah and Al Qaeda that I don’t think iwill ever be crossed

    I agree Shaun, but the dynamics of this is such that further destabilisation/escalation could lead to strange bedfellows. The enemy of my enemy is my friend when the chips are down (perhaps.)

  68. 68 wbbNo Gravatar

    Observa - we all realise that Hezbollah is not the pin-up boy of the region. But guess what - it’s possible to condemn Hizbollah’s attack and condemn Israel’s bombing campaign.

    Just like it is possible to condemn Saddam’s crimes and condemn Bush’s crimes against humanity that have left Iraq a basket-case of human misery.

    If I hit you - and then you shoot me in the head, LPers may be within their rights to conclude that you’d over-reacted without endorsing, however much it may hurt some of them, my initial action.

  69. 69 Peter KempNo Gravatar

    What is it with lefties and their love of dictators.

    THe shame of it all that some who admired Hitler and sold pig iron to Japan could be called lefties.

  70. 70 PhillNo Gravatar

    If I hear or read on this fucking blogg one more time Hitler was a lefty I am going to fucking scream.He was for the last time re-peat after me “A RABID RIGHT WING FUCKING NUT CASE.Who incidently not only like to dress in womens clothes had a thing for womens anusus mainly Eva Brauns.

    A right wing rabid cracker jack, who would have fitted in well in the John Birch society or any other rabid right wing orginisation.And for you wing nuts it was he the RIGHT WING RABID NUTCASE That depend on who you read,was responsible for the death of 6 million jews.

    George Bush is a RABID RIGHT WING NUTCASE who like Hitler may yet be responsible for WW3.This fucker wouldn’t know what an Arabian Camel looked like much less the Hizbollah,Israel should be condemned for this latest total fuck up and many of its supporters are saying just that.

    To accuse anyone for condemnation of Israel for their current actions as anti-semitic, is an insult of the highest order.The government of Israel should be taken out and horse whipped for its actions in Lebanon.There Ive said it.You can do this before or after the leadership of Hizbollah has copped the same flogging.Howard should cop one for his blatant opportunism, he knows what is going on is wrong but his hands are tied just ask him.

  71. 71 PeterTBNo Gravatar

    Maybe Hitler was a National Socialist Righty Phill, but given his detente with Stalin, hatred of Jews and close ties with the Mufti, he is easily confused with one.

  72. 72 PeterTBNo Gravatar

    ..easily confused with a lefty.

    See, even I’m confused

  73. 73 PeterTBNo Gravatar

    Google mufti Hitler for swags of links on this dynamic duo.

    Delightful

  74. 74 observaNo Gravatar

    National Socialism wasn’t it Phill? Allied with another United Socialist Republic until their dictators fell out, as I recall.

    As for being anti-semitic I couldn’t give a stuff if you are or aren’t, just so long as you’re not anti-civilisation. Perhaps this Zapatero voter here http://www.science.co.il/Arab-Israeli-conflict/Articles/Rodriguez-2005-09-23.asp
    understands that, but then maybe he’s just from Barcelona eh?

    Getting back to Israel’s reasons for wanting to win the war against Iranian Hesbollah in Lebanon, they fully understand what they’re up against
    http://www.nysun.com/article/36557
    Basically it’s our civilisation versus theirs. If good people don’t want to die alongside these fundamentalist, suicidal, whackos and their filthy mediaeval doctrine, then don’t have anything to do with them. It’s as simple as that and it applies to us all. There can be no exceptions if our civilisation is to carry on. Unfortunately Lebanese are learning that the hard way again now. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance and the will to defend it to the death from the jackboot brigade. Has that come as a hell of a culture shock to you Phill? You should have studied real history instead of that luvvy pomo flower arranging they spun you. Still, they meant well and shielded you from all the grown up nasties until now.

  75. 75 observaNo Gravatar
  76. 76 observaNo Gravatar

    What, Hamas who?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqGjz7iJTns&mode=related&search=
    We’re strictly a humanitarian organisation.

  77. 77 Graham BellNo Gravatar

    James Hamilton …. and Observa:
    I can understand your feelings about Israel and Hizbollah but there was no excuse for Israel relying on brute force alone, especially against an organization with the characteristics of Hizbollah.

    If, in the past several years, the Israelis had focused on finding out WHY and HOW Hizbollah was able to get themselves so thoroughly entrenched in these villages, taken the answers seriously (no matter how unpalatable) and then taken political, economic and social measures to undermine Hizbollah’s position then none of this would have happened. The Israelis are now paying a terrible price for their love-affair with things that go bang.

    Phill:
    Agree that Hitler was a Right-Wing Rabid Nutcase - however he had drive, charisma, vision (even though it was a horrific one for us). But I do object to you associating him with that G-d m-f nong-nong in the White House for the moment. :-)

  78. 78 KimNo Gravatar

    Speaking as someone whose ancestry in the matrilineal line makes her Jewish (do RWDBs realise that you need a Jewish mother to be Jewish - a Jewish father a gentile does not a Jew make)… Observa, you’re weird, dude!

  79. 79 PhillNo Gravatar

    “All that luvvy pomo flower arranging they spun you” What the? What scares me is you are serious? National Socialism wasn’t it Phill ? What? What?have you lost your marbles?Observa now get with the programme,I’m sure there is a library somewhere near you.National Socialism is a misnomer,National Socialists were about as socialist as,Shit,I don’t know, what about Alexander Downer? ,Maggie Thatcher? or your mentor John Howard?, or wait for it! the big one Menzies?

    “Basically it’s our civilisation against theirs”. Of course ours is superior, we are white when we were living in caves, Arabs were having hot baths and discovering algebra. What? Yea i know i didn’t believe it myself.We Anglo Saxons seem to have a mortgage on superiority.F