Well, the Queensland election has been called for September 9. Over the fold is a story I wrote for Crikey this morning on leadership and the ALP team, focussing on the role of Deputy Premier and Treasurer Anna Bligh. I’ll be continuing to write on the campaign for Crikey, but so will a number of other writers, and I suspect you’ll get better coverage there than in the MSM. So it might be time to encourage people to take out a Crikey subscription. Click on the link for a two week free trial.
It will also be worth watching Graham Young’s Ambit Gambit blog, and Graham’s National Forum Queensland Election site. You can also find full poll guides to each electorate at The Poll Bludger and Antony Green’s ABC site.
There’s some other blog commentary today at John Quiggin and Polemica. Any other tips about blogs following the campaign can be posted here, and will be much appreciated.
For those who subscribe to the betting odds theory of political prediction, if you go round to Centrebet, you certainly won’t win a packet if you place a few hundred bucks on Beattie. There really should be an option for a hung parliament (there are currently seven Independents sitting in the state house), which would be worth a punt to spread your outlay, in my view, at this stage at least.
Update: Andrew Leigh also looks at the betting market.
2. Is Queensland about to get its first left-wing female Premier?
Mark Bahnisch writes:
The state which Joh Bjelke-Petersen ran for many long years may be about to have its first female left-wing Premier as a result of the state election called by Peter Beattie today.
Campaign billboards, which started appearing on sites adjacent to major arterial roads and highways last week, feature a smiling Premier Pete standing next to Deputy Premier and Treasurer Anna Bligh. The slogan is “Strong Leadership, Strong Economy, Strong Queensland�.
There has been intermittent speculation about Beattie’s intentions over the last year. At one stage he claimed he would resign if health wasn’t “fixedâ€?, but the need for this to occur disappeared when he proclaimed health “fixedâ€? to the accompaniment of an expensive print and TV advertising campaign. But Beattie has strongly hinted that he will not serve out a fourth term, and has anointed Bligh as his preferred successor.
With the retirement of former Deputy Premier Terry Mackenroth last year, Bligh was elevated to the number two spot, and made Treasurer after serving a brief apprenticeship in an economic portfolio as Finance Minister. Bligh, who presents well, and who is seen as competent and popular, was a high-profile Education Minister for five years, presiding over major reforms to school education. Unlike some of Beattie’s other ministers (some of whom are retiring), she is not associated with any political or administrative stuff-ups.
The Coalition will no doubt try to raise hell about the prospect of a left wing woman becoming Premier. But Bligh has been engaged in some none too subtle repositioning, spending a fair bit of her time as Acting Premier giving interviews and doing blokey things like turning her foot to a shovel on new building projects. A long profile piece in the Courier-Mail’s weekend colour mag was liberally spiced with quotes from colleagues describing Bligh’s journey from young left activist to mature politician of the pragmatic centre. Bligh has also denied that her recent marriage to long term partner and father of her two sons, Greg Withers, was at all influenced by political considerations.
Beattie was able to hose down opposition from factional figures such as AWU boss Bill Ludwig by pointing to the absence of an equally appealing candidate for the leadership from the right. Beattie himself has a very chequered history with the AWU faction, but rumours of payback against Bligh have come to nothing. Bligh appears to be positioning herself, along similar lines to Julia Gillard, for a segue out of the left on the grounds that the leader should be above factions and factionalism. There’s a precedent for this – former Premier Wayne Goss, though close to the AWU, was never a member during his leadership.
The ALP are more than likely on to a winner with Bligh. The presentation of Beattie and Bligh as a strong unified team sends a message about the feuding between Nats leader Lawrence Springborg and new Liberal head honcho Dr Bruce Flegg. It also sends a strong signal that in contrast to the Federal disunity blatantly obvious to voters in Barnaby Joyce’s home state, Beattie understands succession planning and presides over a united ship of state.
If, as anticipated, Beattie is returned with a reduced majority, Queenslanders can look forward to Premier Bligh sooner rather than later. It’s interesting to speculate what Sir Joh might have thought.
THroughout his life, Joh was always very open to the counsel of women – more than his contemporaries and far more than his opponents in the macho Labor Party. He loved Thatcher and his wife even went to Canberra. Joh would be indifferent to a Premieress. He would be concerned that she was a lfty nutter.
Or even a LEFTY nutter.
As against Joh who was a righty nutter,and gave a new meaning to state sponsered corruption.Geeez Luise the stuff the passes on this blog for intelligent commentary.I remember it well Joh for P.M. the personifacation of honesty”Yea right.
How are they going to work out the Premier spot between Springborg or Flemm. On the ABC tonight they could not seem to make up their minds and in the courier mail, Flemm claiming the Premier spot.
Not that I think that they will win. I haven’t been watching alot of TV, but every time I see Springborg and Flemm, they are always B***ching and not giving any solutions.
To tell the truth, if I had to listen to Springborgs voice on TV for the next four years…well it’s not going to be pretty.
Actually, C.L., I’d love to hear what Lady Flo thinks. And I dont think, as I argued in the article, Anna’s all that close to the left these days.
aj, you’re spot on. The Flegg/Borg double act was an atrocious beginning to the campaign. The voters aren’t going to buy the line that who will become Premier in the event of a Coalition victory is a matter for “internal party workings” as the Borg put it. And Flegg’s inexperience showed big time.
I will say it again. After listening to talkback on Radio Courier-Mail, Beattie will suffer much pain.
People seem to forget that Geoff K (Victoria) was also considered to be unbeatable. As was Wayne Goss.
How quickly we forget.
As I said, I wouldn’t necessarily put money at this stage on an ALP majority. But I certainly wouldn’t either on a Coalition victory. I think a small ALP majority is likely, but I wouldn’t be ruling out a hung parliament.
I suspect the mood for change is out there, but the Qld Opposition have huge form in destroying themselves during a campaign.
Mark, I respond by saying both Yes and No.
Sheldon and Borbidge presented very well by strolling together on the sand. In that election, there was no self-destruction; and the Coalition won – or if you like Goss lost. Of course, there were lots of variables; but the point being they did not self-destruct.
In a later election, there was the problem of preference distribution re One Nation. (Because the Nationals allow local Branches to determine preferences, this led to Borbidge being hopelessly comprimised when a North QLD Branch decided to exchange preferences with One Nation, AFTER the Liberals declared that such exchanges were anathema).
That deal with the approval of ex-Minister Naomi ??? ultimately led to Borbidge’s decision to retire from politics.
I agree that it will be interesting to see what happens this time.
You may be interested to know that, of recent times, there has been an exchange of political staffers between the Libs and Nats.
I wonder how many of Bob Quinn’s advisers were re-employed by Flegg?? That info, will provide an insight into the level of co-operation that is likely.
Borbidge and Sheldon had a considerably better base to build on, and were not in opposition nearly as long. Less internal brawling as well.
If Springborg believes he has a chance, I’d be really surprised.
CL’s correct, of course.
Who can forget Beryl the pilot? Was that her name?
As for subscriptions to Crikey, well I get it passed on to me by a friend who subscribes. She sends it to a number of people automatically. I pay zilch.
Crikey’s costs $115 a year. Money well spent?
I wouldn’t be saying that too loudly, Darlene. Your friend might like to reflect on the ethics of distributing something for which she paid for free.
I had some more commentary at the end of the original version of the Crikey article which was edited for length. I don’t think Joh would have been worried about a female Premier – Beryl and Lady Flo are both good reasons why.
I’d actually be really interested to hear what Lady Flo thinks of Anna Bligh’s prospects.
It’s good ethics, Mark, socialism in action and all that.
As far as I can tell, as soon as somebody has received Crikey, they are free to pass it on to whoever they choose. Just like if I purchased the newspaper and then gave it to the people next door. I have no worries about that at all. The content of Crikey would have to improve vastly before I would think of subscribing to it again (and a certain writer would have to apologise to some people I know). It has been good to read a Queensland-based perspective on the upcoming Queensland election.
Of course Flo and Ms Bligh are very different female politicians. I think Julia Baird’s book outlines the different types of female politicians that Australia is inclined to support or not support. I think Flo would object to a feminist female politician, but would be happy to support female politicians like Mrs Mirabella.
I guess, though, Darlene, the issue is that if everyone passed it on for free, they wouldn’t have the income to keep producing it.
I take your point, Kim.
However, that’s not how it works for other publications.
For example, my mum has purchased various women’s magazines for several years. After reading them, they do the rounds of her friends, until at least another twenty people have read them.
Now, I appreciate that Women’s Day sells many more copies than Crikey has subscribers, but if they buck up their ideas, well, they might get more subscribers.
I guess the difference, Darlene, is that Women’s Day etc. make more money from advertising than sales. I doubt that’s the case with Crikey. Similarly, most magazines and newspapers would have more ability to run at a loss.
What is it that you don’t like about Crikey?
Well, let’s see. Crikey fired the only decent journalist they had earlier this year. He’d worked for them for six years, and when a Liberal Party hack rang Crikey to complain about something he’d written, and told lies about him gatecrashing a party among other things, they fired him on the say-so of said hack, without even asking him for his side of the story. As far as I’m concerned, that’s an utterly unethical way to treat your long-term staff (even aside from the fact that they were being paid essentially slave wages for their sparkling contributions), so my distributing Crikey and depriving them of a little income is just my little way of getting a tiny bit of revenge. I agree it’s not terribly ethical. But I also wouldn’t bother subscribing or even signing up for a free trial if you want fearless alternative election coverage. Try the Concat instead – http://www.theconcat.com.au. Crikey used to be without fear or favour, but it’s not any more.
Too much Stephen Mayne. Boring financial stuff.
Too tame. The sort of stuff you would read elsewhere.
Also, there are personal matters with people I care about that I won’t get into. I appreciate that it is unfair to criticise Crikey for that.
Oh and speaking of Queensland politicians, Barnaby Joyce has once again proven why he is the best of them all by responding to my email.
Love ya Barnaby.
I don’t want to comment too much on this, for obvious reasons. But I would point out that the coverage from the MSM of the Qld election is very much herd instinct stuff, and I think you will get a different perspective from Crikey that’s much closer to the ground, and informed by lots of years involvement in and with Queensland politics. So I would encourage people to give it a go. As to the general mix and quality, I really enjoy it, but people can of course take advantage of the trial to see if they do too.
Darlene – heh.
I was really chuffed years ago when I wrote to all Democrat Senators about a bill (forget which one now) that I got personal replies from Natasha and Andrew B. I also got one from Aiden Ridgeway, but as I couldn’t make any sense of what he wrote, I wasn’t so chuffed.
Last comment about this because back to other stuff.
Judging by Christian Kerr’s childish efforts today, I can’t think why I’d want to subscribe:
“I feel sorry for that tiny, whiny band of bigots who threaten to cancel their subscriptions because Crikey doesn’t just offer views that reinforce their prejudices. They obviously came to the party late. They can’t follow the conversation. They just can’t get it.
Just the way they just can’t get John Howard. No wonder they can’t beat the little rodent. Impotence is distressing, going by the irrational way these people resort to shooting the messenger. We at Crikey care – so much so that here’s something for these saddoes.
John Howard is said to have a rapport with Middle Australia. Yet when has he ever really demonstrated this? When has he said anything at all?
John Howard’s two skills are simply evasion and dog-whistling. His personality is non-existent. This is the man, after all, who claimed he liked Dylan for the music.
His boosters say that he’s a conviction politician. Yeah? When has he ever nailed his colours to the mast? A conscience vote on stem cells is suddenly on the cards. The migration bill is pulled. He melted on the Snowy a few weeks ago. Look back to his time as Malcolm Fraser’s treasurer, when he wouldn’t fight for what we’re now told was his agenda all along.
Howard’s never stood for anything other than his own career. How long until he cans WorkChoices?
Missing this may well be the biggest mistake of Howard’s opponents. They fulminate against conservatism and racism – but can’t put their finger on any truly objectionable thing the PM says. Sure, their sensibilities are offended, but to ordinary voters they seem to be objecting to motherhood statements – hence the four election wins on the trot.
It is when Howard seems tricky – or, worst of all, indifferent, as on petrol prices – that he is really politically vulnerable.
So don’t cancel Crikey. Do something with this instead. Hippies.”
Saddos (what’s a saddo?), hippies; yeah, right. I will continue to get my Crikey for free, thank you.
I will take bets.The media tart will get back with an increased majority.
Phil, I hope you have deep pockets. While most things are possible, an increased majority for Beattie is almost beyond the the possible.
Indeed. How much will you bet, Phill?
My call on the election: this time around, the Coalition will once again fall between the two stools of Beattie Liberals and Hanson Nationals.
The term “Beattie Liberals� refers to voters (mainly in metropolitan areas) who vote for a Liberal-dominated Coalition government in Federal elections, and (in Brisbane) for the Liberals in local government elections, but who in the past three State elections have voted Labor in preference to a National-dominated Queensland Coalition, especially when they had cause to fear that the Coalition would be dependent on the right-populist One Nation Party led by Pauline Hanson, and/or One Nation fission products.
The term Hanson Nationals refers to voters (mainly outside metropolitan areas) whose preferred major party is the National Party, but who have been tempted in recent elections to vote for One Nation or similar beasts when the opportunity has existed.
The Coalition will not win government unless the Liberals win a large number of urban, suburban and exurban seats from Labor. Yet it will probably only win these seats if it can convince “Beattie Liberalsâ€? that by voting Liberal they will elect a Liberal-led Coalition government (and it is true that if the Liberals win enough of the seats in question for the Coalition to win the election, the Liberals will become the major partner in the Coalition). However, if the Liberals overtly campaign on the slogan “vote for a Liberal-led Coalition government”, or if non-metropolitan conservative voters suspect that a Coalition government dominated by the city slickers is a likely outcome, this will both exacerbate intra-Coalition tensions, and get Hanson Nationals’ backs up to the point where they may once more park their vote with populist right parties or candidates who they think they can trust to protect rural interests and “proper conservativeâ€? countryminded and/or religious conservative values. The consequent splitting of the conservative vote could then let Labor through in enough regional and rural seats to offset Liberal gains in the cities.
A good analysis, Paul.
Flegg’s capitulation to the Borg will be disastrous.
You can see now why Springborg was so desparate for an amalgamation – it would be very difficult if the Coalition won the election for the Nats to end up ahead of the Libs.
Good analysis Paul – but as an ex-QLDer, no longer in touch, tell me: who exactly can Hanson Nats vote for these days? Are ONP still fielding candidates widely enough? Or is it ex-affiliate independents? Or some other near extinct species, like City- Country Alliance?
Rosa Lee Long is the sitting One Nation MP for Tablelands, and Elisa Roberts (ex-ONP) is the independent member for Gympie.
Right – Any idea how many candidates ONP are fielding? Its quite relevant to the Nats vote, as you point out, though only to the extent that voters dont preference.
I just wonder if there’s enough ‘Hanson nat ‘ style candidates anymore.
That Crikey bashing makes an interesting diversion from discussion of the state election. Darlene Taylor does not like Crikey but still gets it sent to her each day by Rebecca Power. Rebecca is the partner of sacked Crikey writer Hugo Kelly but this has not discouraged her from subscribing. Hugo also seems to read Crikey as he borrowed heavily from its reporting on Mutitjulu for one of his pieces in the New Matilda.
Big problem for the Nationals is that they must defeat the sitting independents to muster up significant numbers to form a government but all the independents have outperformed the Nats this term and it is hard to see the Nats rolling any of them.
Could the Nats really out-poll; Peter Wellington, Dolly Pratt, Elisa Roberts or Chris Foley? I’d say all of these are more likely to be re-elected and the performance of the Nationals has been so pathetic that it would not surprise me if there are even less Nats in the next parliament than they currently hold.
The Blueprint for the Bush has left the Nats exposed as having no policy to revitalise Rural Queensland and there is little reason for country people to support the Nationals when independents are far more effective.
The status of the coalition as the best resourced but laziest opposition in the history of Queensland is more true than ever.
Yes, it was very exciting to get my Barnaby response, direct from Barnaby. Having worked for a few politicians, I am not in the habit of writing to them, particularly since I have been the one writing the response during certain times in my career.
David, thanks for those assumptions. So one is not allowed to criticise things they read (for free or otherwise) without ending up with a conspiracy theory? Somebody tell all those critics.
Oh yes, since this thread is supposed to be about the Queensland election and not “Crikey bashing”, I was wondering if someone could discuss whether the Libs and Nats will get around to forming some kind of arrangement prior to election.
Interesting assumption, David. And you spelled my name incorrectly.
Have you got any proof for your accusation? No. So you’re coming dangerously close to libelling me, mate, as you don’t have any proof whatsoever of who is forwarding Darlene Crikey e-mails.
And as for Hugo’s piece on Mutitjulu, unlike (it seems) anyone who currently writes for Crikey, Hugo is a journalist. He did not rely on Crikey’s reporting, let alone base his piece on it, like decent journalists always do he picked up the phone, he wrote e-mails, he talked to the people involved, including Lateline and the NIT, and as he always does, came to his own conclusions and wrote his own piece. If you reckon he was using Crikey’s reporting, you clearly haven’t read it.
And by the way, yes, I do still subscribe to Crikey. It’s paid for by work.
And I still like reading Charles’s pieces, which make an uncommon amount of sense, and even still enjoy an occasional piece by Christian when he gets a bit feisty (not so often these days as it used to be, unfortunately, although he did call people hippies yesterday with a flash of the old brilliance).
But that aside, I agree with Darlene that it’s tame, has too much financial stuff, and too much of Stephen Mayne’s navel gazing on his kindergarten board and other such trivialities.
And the owners are a bunch of bastards for the way they treated Hugo. But in the end Hugo’s better off without them.
Two.
Sitting member for Tablelands Lee Long and one other.
But a few of the sitting Nat and Independent MPs are ex-ONP.
Cheers Mark – much the same as last time then.
Yep, they’re basically finished – but the voters are still there. A lot went with Labor in 01.
I’ve got another Qld election post up, so I might close this one off and direct further commenters here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2006/08/17/crikey-story-beatties-candidate-chess/