I heard Michael Catalbiano interviewed on ABC radio today. He was distancing himself none too subtly from Flegg, admitting that leadership had been a problem. Catalbiano spent most of his time stressing two themes – the need to cut Beattie’s majority in the interests of democracy, and his own performance as a “strong local member”. He conceded “Beattie will be returned”. Tim Nicholls, another former Brisbane Councillor, and the candidate for the very marginal Labor seat of Clayfield, spoke in very similar terms on the 7.30 Report last night. In the meantime, Labor has been leaking polling showing its vote going backwards. There’s no doubt going to be a small swing back but The Poll Bludger is probably right to be sceptical of the selectivity and implications of this polling.
The problem for the Coalition is that this card is being played probably too late in the day. I discussed the opposition’s performance in my column for Crikey today, which is reproduced below. Graham and I also had some press in The Australian this morning. I should have made it clearer when talking on the phone to the journo that my first quote was more my opinion than a direct read from the focus group, but it’s an opinion I’m happy to defend. I think that the Coalition are paying the price not just for a terrible campaign, but also for their performance over the past term. Springborg was quite right to push amalgamation, and the Libs totally wrong to dump Quinn. But importantly also, it seems like the hard yards of policy formulation just haven’t been done, and the Springborg led Opposition has played into all the stereotypes voters have of being carping, critical and purely negative. Whoever’s left standing are going to have to lift their game a lot in the next term to even be in contention, particularly if the Government renews itself and Beattie retires.
From today’s Crikey:
As we get to the business end of the Queensland election campaign, Graham Young and I took a slightly different tack on some of the questions for our third online focus group for The National Forum. This time we were interested in seeing how the sample participants responded to the campaign, and particularly how they viewed the performance of the opposition.
It’s likely that the pitch from the Coalition in the last few days will be that they should be strengthened in Parliament in order to perform better as an opposition. In effect this is a concession of defeat, but it’s not a bad tactic in the absence of any discernible momentum for a protest vote. The idea is that because Beattie has succeeded in making them the issue, they’ll leverage that focus onto process issues and suggest another huge majority is unhealthy for the State’s democracy.
The risk of course is that this tactic will only reinforce what has become the central frustration of many voters – those who would like to vote against Beattie can’t bring themselves to mark their ballots for the Coalition in case they get elected.
Many of our sample agreed strongly that the State needed a better opposition, but quite a few were sceptical of whether the Coalition could provide one. “Dump the lot and start again� was the suggestion from one Sunshine Coast 50 year old male voter, while another male voter aged 80 from Brisbane wanted a “different cast�.
Participants were specifically questioned about whether the Coalition deserved to be punished for their campaign. Some felt an election loss and the media focus on bungles were punishment enough, but some believed that the Coalition would be punished, with the “Beattie killed my brother� ad singled out by one participant. Interestingly, at this stage, voters in our sample had made up their minds, hadn’t been swayed much by the campaign launches, and were unlikely to change their votes.
The best the Coalition can hope for this late in the game is a small correction back in their favour. But given the odds against them in terms of seats held, this may not translate to very much. Beattie will most likely be returned with a slightly reduced majority, not the increase some commentators are now tipping. But it will still be a big majority and the Coalition’s challenge will be to do effective policy and communications work over the next term.
Cross-posted at Currumbin2Cook.
I have been informed that Horan is counting the numbers. Perhaps the last gasp of the rural rump. But, realistically, who else? Certainly, not the current Deputy.
Perhaps the option is to hand the mantle to the only person ever to make a ‘maiden’ speech in the QLD Parliament. Not Homer, but Fiona.
Now that’s a radical suggestion. Next election: Anna versus Fiona.
Actually, Fiona is by no means the worst idea! Seeney comes across as a thug, and back to the future with Horan?
Springborg will surely walk away from at least the leadership. Maybe they could follow tradition and shoehorn one of their briefly newsworthy 20 or 21 year old Nat candidates into Southern Downs?
Speaking of Fiona, she’s been the subject of a local campaign gaffe:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/indepth/featureitems/s1734621.htm
As with everything else on the Coalition side, there’s a conspiracy theory explanation or the alternative of total incompetence!
Mark, keep an eye on the electorate of Mulgrave. It might be a surprise win for the Nats. And if it is, a totally new dynamic would need to be considered. Big Brother/Australian Idol type of ‘voting’ might be out and about.
Personally, I hope not. Warren Pitt, the local member, has talent even if he is often referred to as the ‘pitts’.
Mulgrave could be interesting. It’s swung a lot back and forth, and if memory serves, was held by ON for a little while, before Pitt won it back in a by-election.
Graham and I will be liveblogging from the tally room btw.
From memory, Mulgrave was never a sure seat for Labor (it was won from the Nats in 89) – and the Nats won it in 95 (as the Libs did with Barron River to the north of Cairns). Then ON won it in 98, the ON member resigned a few months on, and Warren Pitt won it in the subsequent by-election.
That’s me. I was going to hold my nose and vote Liberal because I don’t think Beattie deserves to be re-elected. But they are just hopeless and I couldn’t vote for a party that has Mike Caltabiano in it, even though he probably won’t survive.
I’ve never liked Michael Caltabiano – from when I remember some anti-gay comments being associated with him when he started as a brisbane city councillor, then he was pretty awful in council, and he just seemed all round pretty nasty.
He’s much more articulate and a better political communicator than Flegg – I’ll give him that much.
Labor’s leaked some more polling – showing them in trouble on the Sunshine Coast. The trouble with this? Everyone knew all along they had problems in one area of SEQ – the Sunshine Coast.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20373504-2702,00.html
Saw your story in Crikey today, Mark. These was a little slip – it had Bjelkie-Petersen running in Narangba rather than Nanango. But otherwise, it was quite nice.
Mark:
No. Neither conspiracy nor incompetence but desperate error. I would call it Forlorn Hope …. that is, whenever someone is in an inevitably disasterous situation and rescue is impossible and yet they are wonderfully optimistic and full of hope (the leadership of Nazi Germany in March and April 1945 comes immediately to mind).
It’s going to be very painful for some but the Liberal Party in Queensland state politics is dead.
I’ll be interested in seeing just where the Liberals supporters will go after this election. I wouldn’t assume that all of them will simply slide over into the National Party – some will, of course, but I think quite a few of them will join the A.L.P.; the Australian Democrats might pick up some of the brighter ones but I doubt if One Nation, Family First or The Greens will pick up too many. And I’ll be interested in seeing how the Howard government gets by with only a token rump of a Liberal Party (so that their Senators and Federal Members still have an officially registered political party) – or even none – in Queensland.
Ah, Sacha, yes I know – I picked it up and sent in a correction – but Crikey is on such tight deadlines unfortunately you don’t get subbed for the stories and self-subbing can be problematic because the editor is trying to put together the daily email in a few hours each day with nowhere near the resources that the MSM have.
Mark:
and yet their error rate seems no worse that in the huge multi-billion dollar media conglomerates.
Everyone:
Don’t forget to keep up the Tammany Hall tradition: Vote early and vote often. ….
Everyone:
I honestly thought thought the Liberals would have made themselves extinct in this election. I was wrong this time.