From today’s Crikey email, here’s your guide to tonight’s Queensland election. Cross posted at Currumbin2Cook.
Tonight there’s a full moon, which is probably apt for the more than usually lunatic election campaign we’ve enjoyed over the past month. Whatever else Queensland politics is, it’s never boring.
As I predicted earlier in the week, the Coalition has been playing the stronger Opposition card. Both Clayfield candidate Tim Nicholls and Chatsworth MP Michael Catalbiano have been interviewed in the last two days arguing that Beattie will be returned and that cutting his majority will be healthy for democracy. Catalbiano was also distancing himself from Flegg on ABC radio today, and running the “strong local member” line. The trouble is that this is probably too late to have much of an impact. The Nats, meanwhile, are accusing the Libs of playing the blame game, which has the added extra of diverting the blame from themselves.
Labor has countered by leaking some polling to the Courier-Mail showing their vote going backward in a few marginals. This is probably accurate enough, picking the small swing away from Team Beattie, but the Labor vote was never going to hold at a level where a larger majority could have been in the offing.
So what’s likely to happen on Saturday night?
The basic dynamics of the campaign were established in the first few days. Labor’s vote peaked last week, or more accurately, the Coalition’s vote hit rock bottom. There’s likely to be a bit of a correction, but although anything could happen, the most probable result – surprisingly for such a dynamic and odd campaign – is that not too many seats at all will change hands.
My reading of the situation is not too far from William Bowe’s at The Poll Bludger except that I wouldn’t be giving away Bundaberg to the Nats or Mudgeeraba to the Libs. Noosa, where former Labor member Cate Molloy is running is an Independent, is probably going to the Libs, but largely because a lot of votes will exhaust in a crowded field. But Cate Molloy couldn’t entirely be ruled out of contention. Claims that Family First are in with a chance in Gympie, where former One Nation MP Elisa Roberts has been withdrawing and re-entering the race more often than most observers can keep track of, are rubbish. It’s likely to be a Nats gain. John Bjelke-Petersen won’t have a show in Nanango, and the Libs will lose their by-election gains of Redcliffe and Chatsworth.
My best bet for the final tally? Labor 60, Nationals 17, Liberals 7, Independents 4, One Nation 1. That would leave Labor three down on its 2004 haul, and only six down on its 2001 landslide.
Quensland elections always turn up interesting surprises …. but in general I’ll go along with your assessment …. except that if there are any more than two Liberals in the next parliament, the stewards will have to be called in.
Surely the Liberals don’t deserve to retain any seats at all given their decades long proficiency at talent deflection, their personaliity driven party discipline that would have made Mussolini blush, their embracing of one ratbag economic or social policy idea after another – it hasn’t been a proper party since Sir Llew Edwards gave up trying to keep all the monkeys in their cages.
I noticed the Joan Sheldon and Russell Cooper on the 7.30 Report last night were stressing the need for a strong opposition like crazy.
Springborg put forward the improbable proposition that leadership was not necessary in a political party when the question was Flegg. When the question was his own future he all but justified himself in terms of leadership.
For the record, I think you’ll find that in Gympie Elisa Roberts has changed her mind six times. It must be some kind of a record.
Today I’m going to vote informal for the first time ever. This is because in my electorate, there are only two candidates: Lawrence Springborg and an ALP paper candidate nobody.
Since I refuse to vote for either loser, I’m just going to have my name ticked at the polling booth and submit my ballot paper unmarked – except for the legend “NO DAMS” that I shall write across the top.
I tip the Crows to win today
Oppositions are as rarely bad as made out thus people should vote for the Opposition in Queensland today as they should in every state and territory as well as Federally when they vote
I saw Stateline last night and thought it was terribly unbalanced. There were two speakers for the Coalition but only one for the ALP. And the time allocation reflected those numbers. Perhaps another example of ABC lefty bias??
In the event, I had to write “NO DAMS” on the bottom half of the ballot paper, as there was no room at the top.
Springborg was returned, as was the Beattie government (with an increased majority).
My informal vote counted exactly as much as if I’d voted for either the Nats or the ALP, but at least I enjoyed the momentary frisson of expressing what I felt – not that anybody would have noted it.
I just love democracy. It’s just so empowering.
Everyone:
I’m truly amazed …. not that so many people voted Liberal – that was inevitable – but that they were so concentrated as to actually get a few Liberals elected despite the abysmaal performance (underperformance perhaps) of the Liberal Party at a state level.
My guesses were wrong.