Comments on: Live blogging the Queensland election

By: Graham Bell

Graham Bell — Mon, 11 Sep 2006 04:46:27 +0000

A vignette for you:
A rural gentleman, a lifelong CountryParty / Nationals voter, a true Joh supporter, a Hawke-and-Keating-hater, admitting through clenched teeth that he had no choice but to vote for that damned Beattie’s bloke …. yes, it was a FEDERAL election.

By: Phill

Phill — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 09:42:54 +0000

“Phill, I hope you took some bets. Congratulations on a long range prediction that came off.”Well thank you.Unfortunately I didn’t make to many bets,I am married and my missus will only give me money for luxuries like food and clothes.

At the risk of being a smart arse after the fact, it was money in the bank,Beattie has got that unknown factor that wins elections.This added to the fact the opo was a pile of pus he comes across as a father figure who can fix all.

One more prediction from me,.Howard is gone,finished washed up,and his party are slowly coming around to that fact.Some punters that would normally vote for this piece of work are going to abandon him.,in their droves.Even the most understanding and compassionate conservatives must be aware of this mans loyalty’s, the man is totally disconnected from the ordinary people and an affront to decent people everywhere.

By: Mark

Mark — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 04:33:37 +0000

Maybe so, T Rex!

By: Tyro Rex

Tyro Rex — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 04:32:21 +0000

Mark I think you should be leaving a write up on the drinks board at Alibi for “LP readers”.

By: Mark

Mark — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 04:16:50 +0000

Heh!

By: weathergirl

weathergirl — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 04:07:58 +0000

Congratulations, Mark, for winning your bet! Your shout.

By: Darlene

Darlene — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 01:06:02 +0000

Another three or so years of Beattie. Errr, yeah!!!

Congrats to Stirling for winning the seat of Stafford.

Onya, comrade.

By: wpd

wpd — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 22:11:49 +0000

Phill, I hope you took some bets. Congratulations on a long range prediction that came off.

By: Trenton

Trenton — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 16:05:35 +0000

People often refer to the 1993 election as an example of how a government that has presided over a slowing economy with rising interest rates can survive. The way I see it Keatings victory was only possible due to Hewson carrying the political impost of Fightback. The difference between the 1993 election and the upcoming one is that Howard is the one carrying the political impost in the form of Workchoices as well as the rest of the baggage that comes with over ten years in government.

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:53:37 +0000

It’s hard to see how far he can realistically move because all the business lobbies are already pissed off with him for stopping where he did stop. But we’ll see. Hubris might make him think he doesn’t need to water it down.

By: Trenton

Trenton — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:48:05 +0000

Maybe a much watered down version of the no disadvantage test I would reckon. The biggest problem is while he has control of the senate, people will be nervous of what he could do and even changing his position on Workchoices won’t hide the motivation behind that legislation which can only reinforce that nervousness in the electorate.

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:42:40 +0000

If Labor stays at 60, I make $1050 from Centrebet. Only $700 for 58 and 59. The Labor guys I talked to just before we shut up shop tonight varied between best prediction 58 and 60, but I’m hoping against my partisan urges they don’t get up in Clayfield and push it up to 61!

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:34:08 +0000

I used to think that Howard wouldn’t budge on it because of ideology. But I’m coming round to the view that he might make some cosmetic changes. Talk to strategists on the conservative side too – they know it’s a vote changer.

By: Trenton

Trenton — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:31:42 +0000

I think some would like to dismiss Workchoices as an issue on any political level but blind Freddy can see it has all the hallmarks of a vote changer. Sticking your fingers in your ears and wishing it was not true will not make it go away. If the rodent doesn’t react then we will know ideology has blinded him and his end is near.

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:29:11 +0000

Before I go to bed, let me just claim bragging rights. I wrote in Crikey on Friday:

Labor 60, Nationals 17, Liberals 7, Independents 4, One Nation 1.

The ABC projections currently are:

Labor 60, Nationals 16, Liberals 8, Indenpendents 4, One Nation 1.

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:09:15 +0000

By the way, that’s not a partisan point – though I’d be happy to see WorkChoices repealed – the polling just tells you what is and isn’t an issue. We picked it up before there’d been a skerrick of media commentary or politicking on it in the campaign.

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 14:44:27 +0000

whyisitso, if you go back and look at the archive of my commentary, both the online focus groups Graham and I were doing for The National Forum and Graham’s quantitative polling were picking up WorkChoices as an issue pushing votes to Labor and holding them in Labor’s column when people might otherwise have deserted. I know quite a few of the Labor campaign strategists, and they were getting the same in their marginal seat polling – and so many of the attack ads pushed the interest rates and WorkChoices buttons. There really is no doubt it was a factor contributing to a victory which given the horrendous term Beattie had, should have been much smaller.

More tomorrow – it was fun but I’m tired!

By: Brian

Brian — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:25:03 +0000

My comment was that it’s a bit presumptuous to read policy influences into a State election result.

Not being a Queenslander aren’t you being a bit presumptious to say that WorkChoices was not an issue? Wayne Swan said he thought it shored up Labor’s base vote.

But I expect he wouldn’t know, he’s only a Queensland Labor politician who in his past has run elections in this place.

By: wpd

wpd — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:15:16 +0000

Any radical new legislation is bound to throw up some faults and Howard is a very astute politician in this regard.

So it is ‘radical’ and there could be ‘faults’. Careful, you are starting to sound like a revision is around the corner.

Personally, I think you are right. The Rodent knows how to react when he is cornered.

By: whyisitso

whyisitso — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:13:09 +0000

Why should I feel embarrassed, wpd? I’m not a Queenslander, so I’m not up with what’s happening up there. My comment was that it’s a bit presumptuous to read policy influences into a State election result. From what I read Beattie isn’t all that popular up there, and the result is a bit of “the devil you know”. Anyway to us Sydneysiders Queensland is a beautiful State – it’s wasted on Queenslanders.