Victorian Premier Steve Bracks in an unguarded moment gave the game away – the election has been designed to be boring. Bracks is invoking the ghosts of the Kennett era and running a controlled campaign designed to reinforce his strengths as a cautious, conservative and nice guy leader. Hence it’s no surprise that such passion as there is has been generated by factors which are basically part of the process itself – the rhetorical contest between Labor and the Greens over preferences, and the composition of the newly restructured Upper House, the Nats’ chances of holding seats.
But quantitative and qualitative research conducted by Graham Young and me for The National Forum tells an interesting story about the dynamics of the campaign.
In many ways, there are strong parallels with the recent Queensland election. This is perhaps not surprising as both Bracks and Beattie have similar political approaches, if radically different personae. And it’s not surprising either as in both cases a long term Labor government can parry voter dissatisfaction with lack of delivery on services by pointing to a divided and unconvincing opposition.
Voters surveyed hold Bracks to account to some degree for the slowness of delivery on services targets and major projects. But at the same time, some ALP voters recognise that the legacy of the Kennett era conditioned Labor’s approach to government. But while Liberal voters are attracted to the Opposition Leader, very few voters of any persuasion believe that Baillieu will deliver on his wish list. That’s either because he’s seen as being out of step with his party (more socially liberal, an accidental leader) or because the voters have correctly perceived that funding the utopia Victoria would become under Premier Baillieu would simply be impossible.
There are more resonances with the Queensland campaign. Promises by the Liberals to increase the health workforce are discounted because voters are too smart to believe that the staffing problems in health are easily fixable. For a variety of reasons, state governments have succeeded in convincing electors that the issues for which they have responsibility are often shaped by factors beyond their control, whether it’s climate change or medical training. Perhaps this is a reflection of the generally diminished role of the states. It does mean that reasonably competent governments have a big advantage from incumbency. The only ideological point of differentiation available to the Liberals is also their achilles heel – privatisation Kennett style.
Bracks is almost certainly headed for victory. The fact that he won’t do as well as Beattie in holding most of the seats gained in his landslide is more a reflection of the lack of Liberal implosions in the campaign.
Cross-posted at Ambit Gambit.
Labor won some seats last time that were never traditionally ‘Labor’ and they are likely to come back.
Also Baillieu is very much a ‘Victorian Liberal’ tradition.
Pro-business, anti-union but socially much more progressive than the Federal Liberals have been of late. That is why many voters I think like him here.
Bailleau has raised expectations, it will a problem if Saturday is disappointing for him. The only thing the media loves more than boosting a new opposition leader is kicking one in trouble. Will the swing be uniform (wasn’t in 1996 to Labor’s loss), swings in Doncaster and Lara may be countered elsewhere. What will the Victorian equivalent of NQ/Gold Coast be?
Interesting question, Geoff. The media do seem to have been talking up Baillieu. I guess the stunts have helped focus waning attention spans.
http://reasonsyouwillhateme.blogspot.com/2006/11/im-on-to-you-funnyman.html
The Latho is the greatest/Latho is an insane fool segue is probably paradigmatic these days for media coverage of “charismatic” oppo leaders.
To be fair to Teddy, he goes swimming at that beach every Sunday morning throughout the year. Mad, yes. But not a stunt. And the Elvis thing was a legit fund-raiser he’s involved with I believe.
Baillieu’s in for the long haul.
The Liberal strategy is to give him name recognition in this election.
The unacceptable face of the Victorian Parliamentary Liberal Party — the shadow ministers — have been almost invisible in this campaign.
Liberal spinmeisters clearly don’t want Baillieu to be associated with the ghosts of the Kennett days or the post-Kennett Wilderness Years.
But will Bailliue prove to be the pioneer of a return of traditional Victorian social liberals, or is he a stalking horse for the Right who hope to return to office concealed in Baillieu’s petticoats.
Bracks has achieved his aim - it’s as boring as batshit. So much so that I had to be reminded to vote on this saturday.
Ted is better than people think and he’s running for the next election - not this one. My assessment of him is so far so good.
As long as that worthless bint Marhsall gets kicked out, I’ll count it as progress. Thanks for selling us down the tollway Kirsty.
No he’s not. He’s the same old intellectually lazy business booster as the rest of them.
Der. Private enterrprise is effffficientt.. where’s my limousine..
etc.
At least he doesn’t have to grovel to the big end of town. He is the big end of town.
Sick of the pack of them.
I don’t think I’ve seen a more wooden TV performer than Big Ted.