Comments on: Place your bets

By: wbb

wbb — Mon, 27 Nov 2006 04:17:41 +0000

They’re still counting Andrew E. Maybe there’ll be a further ten seat loss in a landslide of postals. Afterall, the postals may not have seen how god-awful Baillieu was in the TV debate either.

By: Andrew E

Andrew E — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 22:01:00 +0000

Oh well, fuck it!

By: wbb

wbb — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 14:44:07 +0000

upper middle class guilt

I’ll let you know if I feel any better, Bob, after I vote tomorra.

By: nasking

nasking — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 14:22:22 +0000

Think of how many inner city councils pretend to care about mandatory detention.

Isn’t sitting thru a City Council meeting similar to mandatory detention?…

By: nasking

nasking — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 14:19:51 +0000

and yea, i meant to say, i don’t gamble…i have better things to do w/ my money

I guess that sounded pontificating…a touch of the Family First…

oh hang on!…

i forgot to vote the Packer way…:)

By: Bob

Bob — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 13:05:47 +0000

The Greens will do well in the Liberal voting areas where voters are looking to displace their upper middle class guilt.

Think of how many inner city councils pretend to care about mandatory detention.

By: Lev Lafayette

Lev Lafayette — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 12:35:03 +0000

I think Labor’s a chance in Caulfield though

Not a chance. The Tory member has been campaigning like her very life depended on the vote whereas the Labor campaign has been half-hearted. In fact, in a seat that is pretty much Liberal orientated, I rather suspect that they’ve radically overspeny on ensuring victory here.

By: Spiros

Spiros — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 11:18:12 +0000

The Greens will do very well (around 20%) in the safe Liberal seats (Brighton, Hawthorn, Malvern).

By: wbb

wbb — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 10:39:09 +0000

Centrebet does recognise Firefox, Ron. Not that I’d encourage anyone to bet.

By: Polly

Polly — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 10:25:54 +0000

I agree with Rebekka on Oakleigh - I’d be shocked to see Oakleigh in danger. Oakleigh was a very marginal Liberal seat until 1999, but a lot of that was the Liberal MP, Denise McGill having a strong personal vote. Sure, a lot of yuppies have moved into Oakleigh, Murrumbeena and Carnegie and driven the house prices up, but there’s still far less intrinsic support for the Libs than there is in seats like Burwood and I think 15% is too big a margin to see it seriously threatened.
The 2 Narres are hard to judge - much of the ALPs margin from 2002 would be due to the Robert Dean fiasco (his old electorate of Berwick got split between Gembrook and Narre Warren North), and the Libs did win the Narre booths in 2004 but I still think they’ll hold onto them, as interest rates aren’t a state issue.
I think that the ALP will lose Evelyn, Hastings, Gembrook, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully, Mt Waverley, Bayswater and possibly Mordialloc, Bentleigh and Prahran. I wouldn’t care to guess on how they’ll go in rural or regional Victoria - I haven’t really had time to look at it.
In the inner seats in Melbourne, I think the Greens will give the ALP a real fright in Melbourne, Richmond and Northcote. They may get over the line in Melbourne and Richmond, but it’s hard to know how this last week has affected their chances. I think we’ll also see the Greens vote become more obviously concentrated in the inner suburbs of Melbourne, rather than going significantly up everywhere across the state.

By: nasking

nasking — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 09:31:19 +0000

and yea, i meant to say, i don’t gamble…i have better things to do w/ my money…like supporting WSPA, CARE, Medicine Sans Frontiers (Doctors w/out Borders), RSPCA…Earth’s Choice on our energy (ENERGEX) bill…

http://www.energex.com.au/environment/environmental_solutions.html

i’m sure the likes of James Packer have enuff money w/out our contributions.

By: nasking

nasking — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 09:20:30 +0000

I reckon the Greens will do better than even the most optimistic supporter predicts.
The Planet is in dire trouble & there is a growing uncertainty about the future…the populace are disconcerted…murmuring under their breath about the BIG DRY…the strange reluctance of mainstream parties to take bold initiatives, move beyond the risk-free strategies.

Global Warming is the new DEPRESSION…a NEW (ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL) DEAL is on the horizon…but few politicians & influential CEOs & industry owners are demonstrating the courage necessary to take us into the NEW AGE. Shareholders w/ gray hair & full bellies are too concerned about pedantics…about dividends…accumulating further assets…THE SELF.

It’s time we had representatives that not only demonstrate integrity & vision…but who put their money & principles where their mouth is…

http://greens.org.au/elections/victoria06/bobbrownletter/

Am I right Peter Garrett? When did you forget that?

I hope a media mogul didn’t get yer tongue…& integrity.

By: Ron

Ron — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 07:02:34 +0000

Centrebet doesn’t recognise Firefox - what a second-rate online gambling service (not that I’ve ever accessed any online gambling prior to the last three minutes!).

By: Paulus

Paulus — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 06:50:26 +0000

As of right now, the Centrebet “bell curve” is centred around 55 ALP seats (at 8:1), so evidently the money’s been flowing Labor’s way since Mark made the original post this morning.

I read somewhere that one tactic in betting on this sort of situation is to see the direction the money is flowing at the last minute, then join in. So, not knowing the first thing about Victorian politics apart from your nice Premier Brock, I’ll put a few $ on ALP 55-57.

By: Robert Merkel

Robert Merkel — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 06:47:01 +0000

Sorry wbb. I went to the website and read the HTV, and didn’t see that they had two options there.

I still think that running a split ticket is wrong, however. The Nats, particularly, haven’t seen a river they don’t want to dam, a tree that they don’t want to chop down, or a mineral deposit they don’t want to mine.

By: Lefty E

Lefty E — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 06:42:51 +0000

Exactly Wbb. The Green are most defintely NOT preferencing libs and nats in Benambra.

By: wbb

wbb — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 06:36:19 +0000

the Greens are putting the Nationals and Libs second and third ahead of Labor in Benambra on their HTV

The Greens got a split ticket in this Benambra place. Why do ppl insist on getting this wrong?

By: Andrew E

Andrew E — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 06:10:21 +0000

Robert, I share your doubts about that poll. Maybe I’ve been reading too much View from Benambra.

Rebekka, when Da Swing Is On hard-working MPs don’t always survive. I hope you’re right about Prahran tho. The Green HTV in Benambra or anywhere else isn’t worth the hemp-paper it’s printed on.

Can I just say that this is the first post where I’ve referred to Benambra three times, and that I doubt I’ll refer to it another three times over the rest of my life?

By: Rebekka

Rebekka — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 06:00:36 +0000

Oakleigh? The same Oakleigh that the hard-working Ann Barker holds by 15.2%??

By: Robert Merkel

Robert Merkel — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 05:56:28 +0000

Andrew E: do you know something about Benambra that I don’t? That poll (dubious though the exact figures may be) tends to indicate that Labor doesn’t have a hope in hell.

By the way, the Greens are putting the Nationals and Libs second and third ahead of Labor in Benambra on their HTV. The Liberal candidate wants to build a bloody great dam on the Upper Murray at Tom Groggin (right in the middle of the Alpine and Kosciousko National Parks), and the nationals have never seen a dam they don’t like, or a tree that shouldn’t be logged. Idealistic lot, those Greens.