I suggest any further comments on the byzantine workings of ALP internal politics be posted here.

I guess the Australian assumed that if Rudd won, the Tues option would be followed, and did not wait to hear what Byrne said. Presumably most of the article you linked to was pre-written.

I have saved a screenhot of the article in case they change it later without admitting it

Julia Gillard has been elected deputy unopposed.

Hours before the ballot, Mr Rudd declared he was happy to leave his future in his colleagues’ hands as he strode into Parliament.

Mr Rudd and running mate Julia Gillard spent the weekend working the phones to secure the crucial 45 caucus votes needed to snatch victory from incumbent leader Kim Beazley and his deputy Jenny Macklin.

“Today is called a reality check and we are more than happy to put our future in our colleagues’ hands,” a croaky voiced Mr Rudd told reporters this morning, before the vote

Asked about his voice, Mr Rudd said: “If you spend the last three days on the telephone non-stop, that’s what happens to your voice.”

The ambitious Ms Gillard, who has taken a very determined back seat to Mr Rudd this weekend, only said: “I’m feeling good thank you”.

Rudd 49 d Beazley 39

Gillard only nomination for Deputy.

Frontbench spill on Thursday, current frontbench to remain till then. Unsure what happens to Beazley between now and then – does he get to keep frontbench status? We’ll know by Question Time at the latest.

Senate:

Evans unopposed for leader
Conroy unopposed for deputy leader

Hang on, someone just cut in with the 49-39 figure.

Of interest:

result for Deputy? Same margin or different? What about Senate leader and deputy?

Will Rudd’s forces unite to postpone the frontbench ballot till tomorrow?

Why assume that Rudd/Gillard is taking primary votes only from the Greens? That’s a silly assumption, based on a set of equally silly assumptions (and maybe attitudes) – like that the left of the ALP is going Green and good riddance to them.

One place where first preferences are going to count a lot, in the next election, is the Senate. A higher primary vote for Labor there translates into more quotas filled on first preferences, hence more seats. And maybe next time round, the twonks who put Steve Fielding into the Senate on Labor preferences they couldn’t bear to see go to the Greens will get it right, so the Senate actually functions as a House of Review again.

Rudd team leads by 21pc: Newspoll
Steve Lewis, Chief political correspondent
December 04, 2006
LABOR is preparing to take a big gamble today by electing Kevin Rudd to challenge John Howard at the federal election next year, as voters call on a divided ALP to dump Kim Beazley as leader.
As Labor MPs arrive in Canberra for this morning’s leadership showdown, a special Newspoll reveals the “dream team” of Mr Rudd and Julia Gillard holds a commanding lead of almost two to one over the incumbents Mr Beazley and Jenny Macklin.

The Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals support among voters for the Rudd-Gillard combination at 48 per cent, 21 percentage points higher than their rivals.

Mr Rudd also holds a decisive lead over Mr Beazley as preferred Opposition leader.

Support for the Queensland MP, who is untested in a leadership role, has jumped to 43 per cent. This easily outstrips Mr Beazley, who can muster only 27 per cent backing to continue as Opposition Leader.

Who the hell did they survey, the personal address books of the entire News Ltd Staff list ??

And of course we all know what the editorial will say

The poll shows 36 per cent of voters think Mr Rudd would be Labor’s best leader, an increase of nine points since the question was last posed in May. Ms Gillard is the next preferred leader on 29 per cent, while Mr Beazley is lagging at 24 per cent.

This is a blessed story to appear for Rudd in this morning’s press, if the numbers are presently giving him a slight majority or the result is to depend on only a few undecideds, as is generally being reported.

Re Latham, it’s true that he had high personal approval ratings at various times, but his preferred PM ratings were always significantly less. The last I can easily find was 45/32 in Howard’s favour about 2 weeks from the election. There doesn’t appear to be a preferred PM poll reported in this latest Nielson.

While I’m here, the ALP’s primary at the last election was 37.64, its lowest since 1934. Many pundits have concluded that the ALP must raise its primary to win, or perhaps even to avoid oblivion. Given that the ALP’s 2004 2pp was 47.26, a 48 point ALP primary, if it was to be true, would be gorgeous.

Who leads is secondary

But it’s as if both the commentariat and the public have stopped listening to him and treat him as a joke, based on a narrative in part based on past failures, and in part driven by sections of the media, and nothing Beazer can do can shake that.

It’s classic proof that politics these days is all theatre and image, like Australian Idol or Big Brother. And Beazer is like that long-time rock band that had its heyday, then a few flops in the early 80s, but still puts out reasonable albums after 30 years, only for critics turn their noses up every time they hit the stage or the record shops.

That being said, to further the rock analogy, the Beazer resembles one of those oldies 70s bands – probably Status Quo is the closest – who, despite 30 years together and many hit albums, are just plain mediocre and never going to be up there with the greats.

And just as some of those stodgy 70s dinosaur bands confect more and more three-chord front-bar boogie, Beazley keeps on putting together the template outrage responses and the familiar windy rhetoric that people have heard before. That is what I think his problem is – the woman from this morning’s Insiders summed it up best – people just don’t believe what he says.

And this is why the gaffes were so disastrous: it wasn’t the gaffes themselves, but that they confirmed in people’s minds a person who – if there are no health issues – just isn’t hungry and switched on enough to the issues of the moment.

For all Rudd’s faults, he is hungry and switched on. He has many of Latham’s qualities but without the instability. And that is why I reckon he will win tomorrow.

Just as a sidenote I wouldn’t give Newspoll the time of day as a serious Poll anymore, unless you are lucky enough to be the journalist that submits the poll questions.

Or deranged. Quite sensible to swing between Coalition and Labor though, shows a maturiity beyond tribalism, and keeps the bastards honest.

Very funny Trenton. Latham never bested Howard on either approval or preferred PM basis, and had a (too) low primary vote. The 2pp is well and good but, on the record, is insufficient to be taken as a guide in isolation, especially between elections, and especially if it’s Newspoll (on the last election, Nielsen has the best record on the 2pp, Morgan the best on the primary, and Newspoll was between the two, coming second on both counts).

Does that mean you have voted for Howard and Labor at various time or Howard and Greens at various times? Of coures your voting habits are personal but in this day and age a “swingin left voter” who votes for either Coaltition,Labor or Greens is a seriously swinging voter.

I’m a swinging left voter who is not thrilled with Rudd as a choice – to some extent I see it as a ‘damned if you do and damned if you don’t’ situation. I’m not automatically thrilled with Gillard either. However, the prospect of Beazley winning the vote tomorrow engenders a strong sense of despair, whereas the prospect of R/G winning at least opens up a bit of hope. I think Howard has been weakened recently and I suspect his invincibility shield suffered some serious dents with the recent climate change debate and Bush’s loss in the US (and the ongoing Iraq disaster). I realise that the ALP will not run an election campaign on those two issues (though I wish they would). Still, I think Rudd is capable of taking on Howard in a way that Beazley has shown he is not.

And a lot of people I know have never forgiven Beazley for the Tampa sellout in 2001. I think if Beazley wins the ALP can kiss the next election goodbye.