Comments on: The polls and cold water http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/ Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas Tue, 14 Feb 2012 08:06:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Paulus http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280021 Paulus Tue, 13 Feb 2007 20:53:54 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280021 Andrew, your comments would be more correct in relation to the "futures" style betting markets they have in the US, where you would buy a future contract on, eg., the Democrats winning the election. Punters can then offer to buy or sell contracts at any price in the lead up to the election, and the market price will fluctuate in line with events and perceptions. With Centrebet, however, the price is set by them, and you either take their price on offer at the moment, or not. There is no way of knowing exactly how Centrebet sets their prices and adjusts them. So it's not really an open market. And indeed Centrebet may actually be gambling themselves (taking a position) on the outcome. I don't have the reference to hand, but a clever academic statistician in the US crunched a lot of numbers and demonstrated that US sports bookies often were taking a position on outcomes. Mark is quite right when he asks what is the underlying basis of the accuracy of political betting? No one has provided a convincing theoretical explanation. The 'insider' hypothesis would suggest that the political parties have access to some particularly accurate polls, which they distribute widely within their parties, allowing numerous apparatchiks to place bets, but these polls somehow never leak to the media. Unconvincing. Andrew, your comments would be more correct in relation to the “futures” style betting markets they have in the US, where you would buy a future contract on, eg., the Democrats winning the election. Punters can then offer to buy or sell contracts at any price in the lead up to the election, and the market price will fluctuate in line with events and perceptions.

With Centrebet, however, the price is set by them, and you either take their price on offer at the moment, or not. There is no way of knowing exactly how Centrebet sets their prices and adjusts them. So it’s not really an open market.

And indeed Centrebet may actually be gambling themselves (taking a position) on the outcome. I don’t have the reference to hand, but a clever academic statistician in the US crunched a lot of numbers and demonstrated that US sports bookies often were taking a position on outcomes.

Mark is quite right when he asks what is the underlying basis of the accuracy of political betting? No one has provided a convincing theoretical explanation. The ‘insider’ hypothesis would suggest that the political parties have access to some particularly accurate polls, which they distribute widely within their parties, allowing numerous apparatchiks to place bets, but these polls somehow never leak to the media. Unconvincing.

]]> By: Mark http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280020 Mark Tue, 13 Feb 2007 15:45:16 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280020 I'd also want to check the national data on real wages, and decompose it by sector and region. I've seen some evidence that real wage growth has been slowing (despite unemployment being low and the labour market tight) - which is exactly what WorkChoices is meant to do - restrain wage growth and bargaining power in times of "plenty". The other factor operating to restrain wages is the very large number of imported workers over the past couple of years. I’d also want to check the national data on real wages, and decompose it by sector and region. I’ve seen some evidence that real wage growth has been slowing (despite unemployment being low and the labour market tight) – which is exactly what WorkChoices is meant to do – restrain wage growth and bargaining power in times of “plenty”. The other factor operating to restrain wages is the very large number of imported workers over the past couple of years.

]]> By: Mark http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280019 Mark Tue, 13 Feb 2007 15:43:14 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280019 If that's so, Andrew, it wouldn't be all the people in WA. Where WorkChoices has really hit hard is on people in retail. Myer has just announced a 12 month wage freeze, and they're generally not a bad employer, but part of the reason is that almost all the smaller operators in retail are engaging in a rush to the bottom with AWAs. I agree with Jo's general point - to a large degree the WorkChoices campaign and issue has its own momentum separate from the ALP's campaign. That's why the government has been worried about it as a vote changer. If that’s so, Andrew, it wouldn’t be all the people in WA. Where WorkChoices has really hit hard is on people in retail. Myer has just announced a 12 month wage freeze, and they’re generally not a bad employer, but part of the reason is that almost all the smaller operators in retail are engaging in a rush to the bottom with AWAs.

I agree with Jo’s general point – to a large degree the WorkChoices campaign and issue has its own momentum separate from the ALP’s campaign. That’s why the government has been worried about it as a vote changer.

]]> By: Andrew Reynolds http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280018 Andrew Reynolds Tue, 13 Feb 2007 15:36:40 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280018 jo, In WA at least those directly affected by workchoices are more likely to vote for the party that brought it in - not against them. Unemployment is continuing down and wages continuing up. I am not saying it is the result of workchoices - but it does at the very least (politically) dent the claims that it is bad for the workers. jo,
In WA at least those directly affected by workchoices are more likely to vote for the party that brought it in – not against them. Unemployment is continuing down and wages continuing up. I am not saying it is the result of workchoices – but it does at the very least (politically) dent the claims that it is bad for the workers.

]]> By: Gaz http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280017 Gaz Tue, 13 Feb 2007 15:05:32 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280017 "With the amount of free publicity the Ming Womble has been getting, I am not suprised he is doing so well. Interesting to see an estimate of what it would cost to buy the coverage he is getting. Of course you are right,the Labor Party has to pay for any good coverage.Unlike the Raty and his mates who get theirs free gratis.I mean why wouldn't they get it free?you don't have to pay for your own media outlets to say good shite about you. “With the amount of free publicity the Ming Womble has been getting, I am not suprised he is doing so well. Interesting to see an estimate of what it would cost to buy the coverage he is getting.

Of course you are right,the Labor Party has to pay for any good coverage.Unlike the Raty and his mates who get theirs free gratis.I mean why wouldn’t they get it free?you don’t have to pay for your own media outlets to say good shite about you.

]]> By: observa http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280016 observa Tue, 13 Feb 2007 14:59:41 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280016 You get the feeling by the time the election comes round the pair of them will be doing the sheep dog routine in the Road Runner cartoon. You know- 'mornin Ralph', 'morning Ralph' -'goodnight Ralph, goodnight Ralph. You get the feeling by the time the election comes round the pair of them will be doing the sheep dog routine in the Road Runner cartoon.
You know- ‘mornin Ralph’, ‘morning Ralph’ -’goodnight Ralph, goodnight Ralph.

]]> By: observa http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280015 observa Tue, 13 Feb 2007 14:54:24 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280015 "Obs, have you had some sort of recent conversion to living in the reality-based world?" That's precious coming from one of those who would have drooled over Latham and now drools over Howard's clone in Rudd. Notice Ruddy wouldn't back Obama's stance today either. He gets more like Howard every day. “Obs, have you had some sort of recent conversion to living in the reality-based world?”

That’s precious coming from one of those who would have drooled over Latham and now drools over Howard’s clone in Rudd. Notice Ruddy wouldn’t back Obama’s stance today either. He gets more like Howard every day.

]]> By: Andrew Reynolds http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280014 Andrew Reynolds Tue, 13 Feb 2007 00:28:31 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280014 Mark, On the betting markets - I would disagree with this: <blockquote>I’m not convinced by the whole betting market hypothesis. It only makes sense if (a) it’s really “insidersâ€? who place the bets and (b) those “insidersâ€? know something other than what everyone else knows from the polls and the media. </blockquote> (a) is wrong because the betting markets do not need many "insiders" to place bets - as with any market only a few, if they are all moving one way, are enough to sway the price. Yes, they got the spread wrong on the Queensland but the important thing is that over many elections they are not systematically wrong. If the spreads were consistently bang on the money no-one would bet on them, destroying their point totally. (b), if you think about it is just wrong - that would only be the condition if you wanted to be <em>sure</em> of making a profit in the market. That is not a condition for a market - any market. Mark,
On the betting markets – I would disagree with this:

I’m not convinced by the whole betting market hypothesis. It only makes sense if (a) it’s really “insidersâ€? who place the bets and (b) those “insidersâ€? know something other than what everyone else knows from the polls and the media.

(a) is wrong because the betting markets do not need many “insiders” to place bets – as with any market only a few, if they are all moving one way, are enough to sway the price.
Yes, they got the spread wrong on the Queensland but the important thing is that over many elections they are not systematically wrong. If the spreads were consistently bang on the money no-one would bet on them, destroying their point totally.
(b), if you think about it is just wrong – that would only be the condition if you wanted to be sure of making a profit in the market. That is not a condition for a market – any market.

]]> By: Nabakov http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280013 Nabakov Mon, 12 Feb 2007 15:55:38 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280013 We've all had bit too much red cordial lately. Time for a bland, compentant, rational third way technocrat who doesn't need a translator when grokking with our big new mate, I think. And I don't think I'm alone in thinking that, I think. Of course they all go a bit irrational after a few years in power. We’ve all had bit too much red cordial lately. Time for a bland, compentant, rational third way technocrat who doesn’t need a translator when grokking with our big new mate, I think. And I don’t think I’m alone in thinking that, I think.

Of course they all go a bit irrational after a few years in power.

]]> By: Annie G http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280012 Annie G Mon, 12 Feb 2007 15:46:59 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/02/12/the-polls-and-cold-water/#comment-280012 I don't think the stats on when voting decisions are made are all that useful for two reasons. One, I believe there are many more self declared swinging voters than actually exist. Also, it would be interesting to know how many of the undecided voters preference the ALP & Libs in the same order at every election. I suspect most of them do. I've been known to give my first preference(s) to parties other than the majors, but it would take something extraordinary for me to preference the Libs ahead of the ALP. A complete policy change by the parties, or some sort of brain injury on my part perhaps. On IR, I thought Gillard was a bit wishy-washy about unfair dismissal laws on the front of The Oz today. I don’t think the stats on when voting decisions are made are all that useful for two reasons.

One, I believe there are many more self declared swinging voters than actually exist.

Also, it would be interesting to know how many of the undecided voters preference the ALP & Libs in the same order at every election. I suspect most of them do.

I’ve been known to give my first preference(s) to parties other than the majors, but it would take something extraordinary for me to preference the Libs ahead of the ALP. A complete policy change by the parties, or some sort of brain injury on my part perhaps.

On IR, I thought Gillard was a bit wishy-washy about unfair dismissal laws on the front of The Oz today.

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