Former ABC journalist Maxine McKew announced yesterday that she plans to contest the seat of Bennelong, currently held by the PM. She plans to sell her house in Mosman and buy within the electorate within weeks. Strongly supported by Kevin Rudd, she is almost sure to win Labor party pre-selection.
Mr Howard has held the seat since 1974, winning it in 13 elections, but his margin of victory has been declining.
In 1996 he won his seat with a two-party preferred margin of 10.1 percentage points. This fell to 6.1 points in 1998, rose to 7.7 points in 2001, and then fell to 4.3 points in 2004.
A Morgan poll of 400 voters in Bennelong found Labor would have won the seat if an election had been held earlier this month, with 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote in the seat.
Howard is going to find beating McKew a really tough assignment, although Peter Hartcher argues that:
For McKew locally, as for Rudd nationally, it will be exceptionally difficult to unseat a reasonably well-liked Prime Minister during an economic expansion.
But the advent of McKew, like Rudd, is politically galvanising because it turns a foregone conclusion into a real contest.
Will it really be “exceptionally difficult”? I don’t entirely buy the breath-of-fresh-air explanation for Labor’s recent jump in the polls: there’s a deep, deep dissatisfaction emerging from the national subconscious, and Howard senses it, thus his uncharacteristic nervousness of late.
Back to Bennelong: if Howard had perhaps harboured visions of announcing his retirement in the lead-up to the next election while ushering a handpicked protege into extending the Liberal Party’s grip on Bennelong for another electoral term, who on earth could the Libs draft to contend the seat who’d have a better chance against McKew than the PM? McKew’s announcement puts any possible graceful retirement almost entirely out of Howard’s reach unless he wants his legacy to be accusations of leaving the Liberal party in the lurch in a marginal seat.
As John Valder just said on Radio National, this is sensational news.
More “playing with his mind” from Labor, and an arrangement from which McKew can only benefit.
Her biggest challenge, I suspect, will be that her face is probably more familiar to the Liberal voters of Bennelong than the Labor ones (though even this could work in her favour).
Plagiarised from the BBC’s “House of Cards”
Mr Costello, is there a danger Maxine McKew could win in Bennelong?
(Wouldn’t be at all surprised if Maxine received some of Ratty dirty secrets in an envelope inside her morning papers–a week before Rattus Extinctus day)
[BTW, off topic a tad, Ratty’s Implied Quote of the Week on Cheney’s “diplomacy”]:
McKew would be at very long odds to beat Howard but still would have more of a chance than any other potenrial Labor candidates. McKew and Bnnelong are a good fit.. She is a small l liberal in an electotate that is full of them.
A long-shot perhaps but a smart idea which capitalises spectacularly on the ever-dwindling Bennelong margin and also avoids the celebrity safe-seat parachuting which tends to irritate the party faithful.
From McKew’s point of view, it’s win-win-win.
If she defeats Howard, she’ll be the most feted Labor hero ever, and probably fast tracked into the Cabinet.
If she loses, meh, she can continue her very successful media and public speaking career.
Best of all, she doesn’t have to move to the western suburbs. All she has to do is move from Mosman to Hunters Hill, not exactly a hardship post.
She’ll do a lot of dough though in real estate agent’s fees and stamp duties when she sells and buys. Oh well. these are the acrifices one makes for the labour movement.
Hunter’s Hill isn’t in the Bennelong electorate any more (at least I don’t think it is).
Maxine is beaming, $weets is smirking and Rodentissimo’s right brachial twitch is as uncontrollable as a Strangeloveian reflex fascist salute.
How could anyone possibly suggest that Pixie Tin-Tin is messing with a mind as fine as that of the Member for Bennelong? A Federal Member who is above all else honourable, faithful and just to the constituents whose votes have made him what he is today.
Whatever happens one thing’s a given. (I so do love a good “known known”).
Max “The Knife” and proven brainstruster, Hubby Hoggie, arn’t going to die wondering how to slip the stiletto betwixt a bit of ageing costal cartilage.
How long may a House of Cards remain on a sandy foundation, Grasshopper?
This will be very very interesting.
Good pickup on the impossibility of a graceful retirement now as well. For JH to go out by the will of his own electorate would be sweet indeed.
It’s so audacious it’s almost silly. Much as I would love to see high flying media ace Maxine McKew win, on sober reflection she can’t just fly into a seat in the last 3/4 hour before the election, do all the hustings work like a seasoned pro and just win it. She may be well known, but her experience of polly work is zilch. She is up against a towering granite monolith who has been in that seat for God knows how long and has been in politics for God knows how long. Sure there might be a deep-seated dissatisfaction with Howard out there, but are you sure Tigtog, that a good part of your appraisal is not coming from some fantasy born of an urgent personal desire for change? There are loads of people out there - an entire wasteland of silent majority zombies in fact - who are quite happy with the status quo and all this stuff about bright new faces hardly blows ripples on the surface of their interest in politics.
She’ll be lucky if she almost wins it.
Doesn’t take long and irresistible ain’t it for some men to make reference to the propective female candidate’s hubby and her Svengali party leader, implicitly the main players here.
Tactical moves aside, Ms McKew will be an excellent candidate, one of the better candidates nationally for any party in terms of smarts, empathy, communicative ability,popularity and street recognition. Her candidacy in itself, regardless of outcome at the ballot box, can only give a big boost to the growing perception, extending way beyond Bennelong, that the power of this government is finally seriously contestable.
This is grave news for Howard. Poor thing, he’s been having a bad run lately. But says he will ‘work harder’. Oh PM, PLEASE DON’T. Its not as though anyone is accusing him of being a slacker, although maybe as the member for Bennalong he’s been a bit distracted lately.
He’s had a double whammy these last few days, with Cheney probably sensing his demise and assuring the preferred PM and everyone else, that our alliance with the US would not be damaged if we pull our troops, pulling the rug out from under Howard. My respect for Cheney went from 0 to 1 with this statement, not because I care particularly for our military alliance with the States but because it showed him looking beyond the palsy-walsy relationship between Bush and Howard into the future when neither of them will be particularly relevant.
Now can we not just get on with it? Maxine is an extraordinary person. Her role as an advisor to Rudd was heartening, now as a probable front bencher, as someone has alluded, — fantastic.
Megan, she may be something of a johnnie-come-lately, but a political ingenue is something she ain’t.
Enthroned granite monoliths? Hordes of faceless zombies? Been up all night reading H.P. Lovecraft, Megan?
her experience of polly work is zilch
She is married to BOB HOGG. THE MAN WHO WAS THE FORCE BEHIND MANY OF LABOR’S WINNING FEDERAL CAMPAIGNS.
I loved Howard’s response - ‘I’m going to work harder’ sounded like a concession he hasn’t been working hard enough.
Well it is a good day for $weetie but also for Sir Henry, an unashamed Maxine infatuate. Maxine would make a fine communications minister, who will probably give the ABC board a thorough tidy-up and disinfection.
As a credible threat to the Rodent, just watch the media sluts get going. I am so looking forward to Hendo’s next column (Hey Gerry, time to uncap a fresh bottle of poison ink).
The last 3/4 hour? The Federal election is a minimum of 6 months away, and most likely not until next year. That’s quite a bit of stumping time for her there.
Although her name recognition won’t be high amongst a whole lot of the recent immigrant population and non-Auntie watchers, everywhere she goes in the electorate there will be enough fans from her ABC years that a crowd will gather, and other people will see the crowd and come to see what it’s all about.
As others have said, her husband is hugely experienced in “polly work” and it was even speculated more than once during her time at Auntie that she was too closely involved in his work to be non-partisan, a speculation about the truth of which I have no idea, but it was made often enough that trying to claim she’s a naif rings very hollow now.
“give the ABC board a thorough tidy-up and disinfection.”
The ABC Board needs a thorough search-and destroy, not a tidy up and disinfection.
All this is moot, however. McKew isn’t going to beat Howard. The Labor Party knows this. The timing of the announcement was without doubt for Morris Iemma’s benefit. It’s given Labor in NSW a filip that should last for a few days.
Spiros: appointing a high-profile candidate to face Howard will increase his workload and distract him from his national responsibilities.
McKew might lose the battle but help win the war.
My initial thoughts here. I think Robert is spot on when he talks about the possibility of McKew losing the battle but helping Labor to win the war.
When people are put under pressure, they make mistakes. It’s hard to concentrate on the bigger picture if you’re busy with your own little turf war. Regardless of what John Howard says publicly, having someone of the calibre and profile of McKew challenging Howard in his own seat will put him under considerable pressure.
Bennelong may nominally be a safe Liberal seat, but it is not a blue ribbon Liberal seat in the same way that some other seats in the affluent suburbs of Sydney are.
Howard said work EVEN harder, for those who bothered to listen.
I’m not convinced that Howard is as vulnerable as the poll that was published last week suggests.
However, even if I am right, this is an excellent move on McKew’s part if she has a long-term plan to get on the Labor front bench.
Unlike Garrett, Delahunty, and Kernot, she’s not getting a safe seat as her first tilt. That gets her brownie points with the non-celebrity candidates who have to line up, vote as they’re told and wait their turn for pre-selection.
She’ll get publicity anyway, and even if she loses can claim to have done some hard yards.
Are the conditions right for a change? Is it Time? The SBS doco on Britpop on Sat night highlighted the role Thatcherism played in creating the conditions for the cultural wave that rolled across Britain in the mid 1990s, preceding the 1997 election of Boy Wonder Tony Blair. Got me thinking. Apart from their longevity, their arch conservatism and their radical social agendas, what else might the periods of Thatcher and Howard have in common? Surely GB was filled with Megan’s “silent majority zombies” just as much as Howard’s Australia, but Britain was not riding on the back of a record breaking minerals boom. Many would like to think It’s Time (and wouldn’t it be delicious to see the Little Rat in a Hat mugged in Bennelong) but if we were searching for signs of cultural revolt in the spirit of Britpop I’m not sure the indicators are there for overthrow of the Howard junta in 2007. Not while Australian Idol is still rating its socks off.
A 4% margin makes it nominally a marginal Liberal seat, Guy.
I’m with Robert and Guy. Putting McKew up for the seat will fuck with Howard’s plan, forcing him to spend more time protecting a safe seat. It also sends a very clear message to the Libs that Labor is ready for a serious contest this time - they’re even willing to put up a star candidate in a seat that will be incredibly difficult to win, because that’s how confident they are overall.
It’s a brilliant move.
If the ALP wins, Max is a shoe-in. If she fails to put the sword through the less preferred PM in Bennelong, she will cake-walk the seat when he retires soonafter. It’s a win/win, premised on a vote of confidence in Rudd.
(Re gregb, in a world where “Australian Idol is still rating its socks off”, television personalities are more real than reality, which is of course a good sign for Max.)
Kernot didn’t get a safe seat. She also took a marginal.
The previous likely ALP candidate for Bennelong (whose name I’ve forgotten - bloody McKew!) admitted on NewsRadio this morning that while it would have been nice to finally have a chance to knock off Rattus Vulgaris himself, Maxine would have a far better chance of achieving that aim, and was also pleased to see a high-profile candidate go for a tough assignment rather than the Garrett route of a safe seat - to use someone else’s words, to take a run up the middle rather than skirting the flanks. (No doubt he’s buttering himself up for a tilt somewhere else - Lindsay, anyone?) And, of course, having the megatonne resource of Hoggy at ready disposal is always going to be helpful - any bets on him authorising Maxine’s material?
And, of course, the Libs are whining that a journalist should stay clear of politics - just as they did with Mary Delahuntly back in 1998 (unsurprisingly after she tore Kennett a metaphorical new arsehole on air), and pretty much every other journo that’s had a tilt. Probably hasn’t stopped them from keeping schtum when a hack has a tilt in Tory colours, though.
Still, it great seeing the Libs runing around with brown trousers again - better back up with regular truckloads of Napisan from now until election day!
True, but then whinged about it on national TV on election night, which is even less palatable to the non-celebrities.
This is a most encouraging development for those of us thirsting for a change of government. Labor is awash with talent and strategy, all the Libs have going for them is a minerals boom not of their making, and great swathes of voters they have alienated with their extremist social engineering.
Last election Bennelong was one of the few seats that swung to Labor (swing of about 3.38%).
One part of this was a swing to the Greens with high profile Andrew Wilkie (16.37% of primary vote) who is running in the Senate this time. The John Valder led-moderate liberal spoiler campaign also helped - heavily backing the Greens. (and 1000 Green 1st preference votes went back to Howard)
The Labor candidate Nicole Campbell was a local councillor ran a very good campaign on the scent of an oily rag and a bit of the on the ground smarts.
She was also nominated by Andrew Leigh as the sexiest candidate in his December’s Beautiful Politician piece which got some run in the Age and Sydney Morning Herald. (and as the ALP candidate in Epping for the state election is argueably the NSW State Elections sexiest candidate)
The real story in Bennelong is that Labor needs to eat into the Liberal’s primary vote - even with the redistribution it needs roughly 3000 people who voted Howard 1st preference last time to vote ALP this coming election.
OK she didn’t come down with the last political shower, but Tigtog and Link - what about all the doorknocking? What about all the visiting and the handshaking and the hobnobbing with the movers and shakers in the locality, the listening to all the little people in Bennelong that Howard has done over the years? What about all the accumulated intimate knowledge that Howard has amassed of his electorate in 30 years of representation? And I mean you can hardly say this man is complacent or lazy either. When he says he is going to work even harder for the electorate, it means working harder than just hard.
I sent Howard a letter about his industrial relations agenda (now looming as work choices) when lived there in the 1990s (before he became prime minister), asking him about what was in it for women. In reply I got a personally signed letter and a detailed copy of his said industrial relations policy - AND he wrote an article in the Sydney Morning Herald specifically spruiking the supposed advantages for women in his brave new(old) world (more flexibility for families rhubarb, rhubarb - As you can see from recent stats, women get an appalling deal). And I was just a tree hugging left wing maniac. I shudder to think what it might have been like if I was a swinging voter. He would have been all over me like an octopus.
So do you see what I mean? This wily old Luftwaffe air pilot circles continuously and tirelessly and it’s really asking a lot for even Maxine McKew to collect her licence, don her flying togs, loop the loop and gun him down in what really is 3/4 hour to his 30 odd years. A four percent margin is really quite high for an incumbent like Howard. For instance Beazley was battling razor thin margins in his electorate for years and he always managed to muddle through. I think there’s a case for her going to a 2 percent marginal seat because it would be a shame if her unique talents were wasted.
ALL VERY GOOD COMMENT SO FAR ABOUT MAXINE MCKEW.
I WISH HER ALL THE BEST OF THE BEST AND GOOD LUCK ON HER NEW JOURNEY.. SHE IS VERY CLEVER, INTELLIGENT AND PROFESSIONAL.
THE LABOR PARTY IS VERY MUCH RICHER WITH MAXINE AS CANDIDATE.
ONE THING THOUGH, AS WE ALL KNOW, ONCE A MEMBER OF A POLITICAL PARTY, ONE’S OWN FREE THOUGHTS AND SPEECH WILL BE SOMEWHAT CURTAILED BY PARTY CONSTRAINTS WHICH MAY TAKE MAXINE A LITTLE GETTING USED TO.
YOU HAVE COMMENCED THE HARD WORK OF POLITICS AND CONGRATULATIONS TO YOU FOR TAKING IT ON!!
ELIZABETH
Megan - 6 months is an incredibly long time in politics. Here in WA we just preselected the candidates for the marginal seats we intend to win last week.
One of the reasons McKew is running is because of a change in mood of the electorate. I doubt a year of doorknocking before that mood change would have made any difference. More than 6 months out from an election it’s about name recognition and she already has that.
As well, she’ll be working on this campaign basically full-time from now until election day. Some candidates may start earlier, but they’re usually doing it around their day job.
John ‘ratty’ Howard may well the political genius of his time, but he is now pitted against McKew AND Rudd AND Hogg. This is going to be a lot of fun.
I think that while the times may well have suited him up till now, that ‘aint no longer the case.
Sit back and enjoy
As I’ve said elsewhere, the key is McKew’s ability to fit to the area. It’s one thing to network around the corridors of Parliament House, but does she actually like ordinary people? Will she rub people up the wrong way? Can she handle an avalanche of shit, not as a spectator but a target? Answer those questions and McKew’s future in Bennelong (as goes Bennelong, so goes … etc.) becomes clearer.
Matt Price doesn’t see the difference between high-level and grassroots politics, fnaar!
If Howard does quit before the election (and I hope he does) it will be on health grounds, either himself or Jeanette. I can hear the speech now, bitterly regret not being able to carry on, unfinished agenda, great leader to take his place, wish the party well for the future blah, blah.
One thing for sure if the polls continue on as they are say up to August, both nationally and in Bennelong, Howard will be feeling very sick. His ego would not allow him to go into an election he was certain to lose. Maybe the party would dump him anyway in those circumstances but I don’t see a comparison to Hawke taking over from Hayden at the last minute.
According to Glenn Milne, the ALP is enjoying staggering success appealing to business, having already sold out its quota of $6,500 seats at the party’s national conference, and preparing to sell a second round.
This might translate into support for McKew even among traditional busines voters in Howard’s electorate. I think McKew’s success, good looks and pleasant persona would all encourage this. And among north-shorers, a Mosmanite is regarded as a fellow traveller.
I don’t think I fully agree. Rudd has done a great job of simultaneously emulating and differentiating Howard on strategically key issues. He has, for example, emulated Howard on economic management, thus diffusing this as a Liberal strength and bolstering his cred as a reliable leader. He has distanced himself, for example, on Iraq in a measured fashion (well, compared to Howard, at least), which has helped the electorate see his moral leadership. McKew’s preselection for Bennelong is more than good strategy, as everyone has been mentioning. It demonstrates that Labor is both serious about winning and acting like they can do it. Rather than present themselves as an opposition party, they are presenting themselves as a party deserving and capable of office. Something they have been thoroughly incapable of doing in previous campaigns.
Its a real blow for Howard. Even if McKew doesn’t actually win the seat Howard is gonna have to spend a lot more campaign time and energy in Bennelong, which will really hamper him elsewhere.
rossco, I’ll believe Howard quits when I see it. Both he and Janette love his job, and his stubbornness/tenacity is legendary. He’d genuinely rather lose than resign.
That Costello has dreamt for years of a Howard retirement just goes to show what a poor judge of character Costello is.
“Rather than present themselves as an opposition party, they are presenting themselves as a party deserving and capable of office. Something they have been thoroughly incapable of doing in previous campaigns.”
This is quite true. Rudd is positioning the Labor Party as a party of grown ups, which certainly wasn’t the image being projected when Latham was leading it.
Unusual! the Terrograph is running political commentary on the story. In a multi-media clip Malcom Farr reckons Maxine McKew is not just there as a candidate - but to add some ‘glamma’ to the Rudd image and you can be sure there’ll be a lot of photos of the two of them between now and the election….He seems to be of the argument that Labor reckons it will be a long shot, whether she is a North Shore lady who lunches or not. I wonder if some detractors will be crying out ’stunt!’ soon? Oh, but what a daring and magnificent one!!!
I can’t escape thinking it’s silly to put ‘celebrity candidates’ into marginal seats (like Kernot and David Hill in 1998, and Kernot’s then opponent Rod Henshaw.) McKew will be spending all her time doing the ‘local candidate for local people’ thing and not participating in the “national campaign”, or vice-versa. It’s not possible to do both when you’re trying to win a seat off the government.
d
Darryl, I doubt they are treating it as a truly marginal seat. On paper it is, but not in real life. I think it’s Rudd’s more intelligent, less absurd version of a crazy-brave attack on Howard. He’s saying we have so many great candidates that we can run someone as high-profile as McKew in your seat. That’s how good we are…
This isn’t Kernot Mark II
I agree with Peter at Mumble
Wishful thinking.
Sympathy? For the Man of Steel?
Furthermore, even if he did get sympathy, it would be the last thing he’d want - it’d just play into the emerging “Howard off his game” narrative.
Surely, as everyone says, this is a move to force Howard to fight on both the Eastern and Western Fronts at the same time. McKew will give it a red-hot go, no doubt, but she won’t be blamed if she loses - as long as she brings the fight to Howard.
Until recently I’d agree with Megan but over the last couple of months I’ve sensed a return to the error-prone John Howard of the 1980s. I’ve never bought the Master Politician of His Age nonsense, anyone who took 12 years to persuade his party that he was a capable leader is no wonder man. He’s been suited by the times and had some incredible luck, but the times have changed and his luck seems suddenly to have turned bad.
After 30 years circling the old Luftwaffe pilot might finally be losing a bit of enthusiasm for the fight, there’s a nasty knock in the motor and just maybe he’s had one too many boozy nights in the officers’ mess.
What is going to be thrown at her? She has been in the public eye for decades, can handle anything, has no damning secrets, and an impeccable cv. She is a vocal feminist, a great female role model, has one of the smartest lateral-thinking brains in politics and the media and the ability to communicate depths of perception and insight that are beyond most political candidates, particularly male. Many know all this, especially in a seat like Bennelong.
MM could win the seat and perhaps is the only person who could. Shame that it takes a non-ALP member (until recently) to pull something like this off, but then the moribund ALP hasn’t been attracting talent for yonks.
As for door-knocking and the like: I doubt that MM would need to. Anyway, who would be home? Point is, everyone knows she is running already and why. Her campaign will be one of the most scrutinised in the country. And she knows exactly how to pitch her media campaign and has plenty of allies in the MSM too.
Exactly. And apparently someone is spreading the rumour that Steve Waugh is thought by some to be going to run in Bennelong too.
I haven’t heard yet of the rumour that Terry Hicks is going to run as an independent (but then I can’t be expected to have heard of everything that’s happening, so maybe there is a rumour.)
The more the merrier. Howard is in deep trouble. The Greens need a star candidate. Tim Flannery?
And The Democrats? Jamie Dury?
Howard’ll be lucky to get his deposit back.
“He’s saying we have so many great candidates that we can run someone as high-profile as McKew in your seat. That’s how good we are…”
Oh please. If that’s the underlying message, they should just announce their campaign slogan is “Kevin Rudd: You just don’t understand how smart he is” and get it over with.
d
Is Maxine’s hide thick enough to handle what’s about to be thrown at her? Would anyone’s be? Tony Abbott’s on the phone to someone or other as we speak.
Heh. As a sidelight, I noticed that Rudd has been sitting on this for two weeks. What does he do? He released the item as a breaking story in time for Sunday night’s ABC News, sweeping the front page and Monday news cycle, which is notoriously slow in Australia due to the lack of nothern hemisphere feed. It’s now the only story in town.
Howard’s hide is very thick, there’s no doubt about that; but if this is a sign of the wrong-footing to come, it will have to be to handle what’s apparently about to be thrown at him.
Ken_L - If that is true, I want to see it in slow motion!
But seriously, I didn’t mean to say he is super ace or anything like that legendary German daredevil fighter pilot was. Just that he’s very assiduous at keeping people happy and is always working on it. That’s why I say Maxine is up against a lot. However if she loses this time (hopefully having nicked his plane and he sustains some serious injuries in his blackened spiralling plunge downwards) she’ll parachute to earth, join the Resistance forces and snap up the seat if he goes for the honorable discharge, having limped home for the last time…
Well sarcasm is always helpful, Darryl.
This sends a message of confidence, of belief that Labor can win the election and that we can even take the fight to Howard in his own territory.
If you can’t see how that differs from the interpretation you’ve just given, well…
I don’t think this is about getting McKew into Parliament (although I’m sure everyone involved would be thrilled if that happens). It’s bigger than that, and admonishments about star candidates always needing to be given safe seats completely misses the point.
Andrew Wilkie got a 12.5% swing against Howard for the Greens last year and 2.5% of that came from the ALP. That tells us that a high profile candidate would work in Bennelong. Factor in the fear and loathing. Now, Maxine is not only an ALP candidate but a high profile one and a woman with spirit, as Mr O’Reilly told Sybil.
The Rodent holds the seat with a 3.2% majority, not 4%. Ryde is held by the ALP in the state parliament with a huge majority which swung decisively in its favour.
My bet is she will take him out if the Green preferences hold. You heard it here first. Go Max, you Good Thing!
I think McKew is headed into Parliament, one way or another. She will win Bennelong in 2007, or if by chance Howard prevails, it is only a matter of time before he hands over to Costello (or Turnbull). Bennelong is then subject to by-election, which McKew probably wins.
From there it a likely quick ascendancy to Labor’s frontbench (hopefully in a Labor government).
Bad timing on Pauline’s part!
Pauline who?
“This sends a message of confidence, of belief that Labor can win the election and that we can even take the fight to Howard in his own territory.
If you can’t see how that differs from the interpretation you’ve just given, well…”
maybe I’m too cynical or something Anna, but I read your description as a message of over-confidence. Labor has half a dozen deadweight, going-nowhere backbenchers in safe as houses seats in Sydney, right? Yet they’re gambling a ’star’ candidate in a seat they may not (probably won’t?) win. It looks like needless waste.
Maybe our disconnect is explained in your sentiment that ‘this is bigger than getting a candidate elected’. As I see it, there nothing more important in an election than getting your candidates elected. Everything else is misdirected effort.
But I’m a simple man, who’s never won an election nor worked on a winning campaign (although I got a bigger swing than Kevin did in 2004. Thank-you ballot order ;^). I hope it works out, but i don’t like it so far…
d
He’s got command of a Fokker, but the long runways he’s used to are under attack. The fuel supplies (Islamophobia, Terrorphobia and Economic Liebensraum) are running short.
Now Maxine the Merciless Ace has got him in her sights for a rat-a-tat-tat… simple as ABC, —could be a sitting rat who has ruled the skies for so long…but wait, is he going for a bail-out, is that shoulder twitching nervously as he clips on the parachute? Base Commander Costello packed that economical parachute, will it work? Is rat-cunning enough to get him out of this scrape?
Will Maxine shoot that Fokker or just clip his wings???
Stay tuned for the next exciting episode…
“My bet is she will take him out if the Green preferences hold”
Not a chance. Howard is the Prime Minister, for heaven’s sake. There is no way known the good people of Bennelong will vote out the Prime Minister. Never. Not in a million years. Not even if was facing charges a la Orkopoulos.
A reality check is needed here. The country is in the midst of unprecedented prosperity. The stock market is up and unemployment is down. No amount of wishful thinking by activists who are (quite rightly) angry about Iraq, the treatment of David Hicks, children overboard and Howard’s myriad other Crimes Against the People means that the PM is going to lose the general election, much less his own seat.
It’s time to get a grip on reality.
SHC, maybe the Greens could withhold direction of preferences in Bennelong till the Howard Government signs the Kyoto Protocol. Al Gore gets to pass him the document for scrathing “Live” before the cameras or the deals off.
I do hope poor Janette is coping with the prospect of possible change. C of A’s are such a pest. Nothing but a distraction from her from tireless fund-raising efforts on behalf of her fellow human beings. But stand by her man she will, as she has, in this, and oodles of other crises. Besides, that AB friggin’C were always going to be trouble. She was right all along.
Sir Henry, it’s not highly useful to compare State and Federal seats for any given geographical area, especially in Western Sydney. NSW voters tend to like it both ways.
Whoa, Tony, I really disagree. Bennelong’s a very different social strata, proudly suburban rather than metropolitan. In fact I have a feeling that the word ‘Mosman’ might just end up being used to the same purpose as ‘The Member for Vaucluse’ is now working wonders for Peter Debnam. Never underestimate the finely-honed inter-snobbery of the Sydney real estate-owning class (aka homeownersexuals).
Derrida derider hit the nail on the head, by the way—a better analogy might be McKew as the lead pilot of the intercepting flight that forces Howard’s Dawn Patrol to decide between engaging at the risk of running low on fuel, and jettisoning excess ordnance and heading for base and safety.
<nasal>Tallyho!</nasal>
I adore Maxine MacKew and as the Dear Leader of Luvvies R Us, she has an excellent chance of winning a borgeois seat like Bennelong. And the poor dear doesn’t have to risk having some working-class bogan spill his tinnie of VB all over her Armani suit!
You Go Girl!
Daryl, I’m not “over-confident�. I’m just putting my opinion forward, which is that I think the whole star-candidates-should-get-safe-seats thing is an oft-repeated truism that I don’t believe applies here. It isn’t the point of the exercise.
As for “wasteful� – the announcement alone was huge news. The media will follow the campaign and the story will be about not only Howard’s chances of becoming PM, but about his chances of keeping his own seat. That sort of speculation will probably rattle him – which is great – but also, it will influence his message, and change the terms on which he fights the election. It helps reinforce the idea that Howard should have gone already…
Not a chance. Howard is the Prime Minister, for heaven’s sake. There is no way known the good people of Bennelong will vote out the Prime Minister. Never. Not in a million years. Not even if was facing charges a la Orkopoulos.
We need many more comments like this. Max must stay the underdog to ensure her best chance, and this sublimely arrogant level of certainty about the utter invincibility of the less preferred prime minister is pure political gold. Thanks Spiros. Go Max.
Sorry Anna - I didn’t mean to suggest that you personally are over-confident. If your description of Labor’s message is accurate, then Labor’s message is one of over-confidence and I think voters will see that and they won’t like it. And the ‘wastefulness’ is wasting a ‘prize’ candidate like McKew in a seat she probably won’t win. If her value is maximised by a few days of publicity six or more months out from the election, and the occasional ‘colour’ story then OK. If she can keep the PM discombobulated for half a year, terrific. But I’m not sure either of those things are true.
d
I’ve got some sympathy with Darryl. While Chris Sheil believes that Labor won’t be perceived as the underdog until the punditariat declare it so -
http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2007/02/24/underdog-rides-a-bandwagon/
I think the perception of over-confidence (which I’m not attributing to Anna, but it’s a theme that’s out there - cf. Howard’s “full of himself” comments last week) is dangerous. There’s a fine line between appearing ready for government (which ALP oppositions haven’t looked like in the past) and being vulnerable to the attack that the government will make - Rudd already acts like he’s PM and he’s taking the electorate for granted.
That’s why I think the shuttle diplomacy with the premiers last week was a mistake. In my view, it would have been better to have come up with an alternative policy approach.
1. It’s been a while since Bennelong was a safe Liberal seat. It now includes the housing commission belt in Gladesville, meadowbank and Ryde. And there’s been a big influx of Koreans and Chinese into Eastwood and Marsfield.
2. Maxine’s hubby Hoggy is no fool. He has the runs on the board.
3. This is winnable according to John Valda. He should know.
Perhaps, we should go and lend a hand and our expertise EC? She’s a much better candidate than Brian and a lot easier to keep off the piss.
Spiros: I don’t think anyone assumes Maxine is going to win. I think most people believe there is and will be a contest. This means she *could* win. There’s nothing inevitable about the campaign thus far.
I personally disagree with your argument that unprecedented prosperity vs. wishful thinking will win the Liberals the election. I think Howard is quickly losing the monopoly over economic management. Take these comments from his Sunday statement reported on News:
The auto pilot thing is a classic straw man argument - this is not what Rudd has suggested. Rudd went out of his way earlier this year to draw the parallels between his own and the government’s monetary and fiscal policy, saying that these were uncontroversial points of general agreement and consensus. This means that Howard is unable to criticise Rudd on economic management without implicitly criticising himself. Nor can the government claim that they can do it better, if Labor is largely claiming they will do the same. While Howard can lay claim to having led Australia’s prosperity over the last 10 years, he can’t monopolise a projection of this claim into the future since Labor are more or less trying to promise the same thing. And this last point in particular counts at election time.
Although I don’t have an opinion on exactly how the ‘wishful thinking’ issues are going to play out, I don’t think the ‘unprecedented prosperity’ argument is that strong since it’s not really working for Howard at the moment.
“This is winnable according to John Valda. He should know.”
Valda, the Sage of Seaforth, gets excited at every remote possibility that something bad might happen to John Howard. Valda also thought that Andrew Wilkie was a real shot at beating Howard.
Valda v. Howard is just some ancient intra-Liberal bun fight between Howard and someone he kicked aside when he climbed to the top of the Liberal party, way back when.
So she gets done by a whisker but Labour wins ,the rodent cuts and runs and she takes the seat in a landslide by-election.
Actually, a lot of people aren’t enjoying “unprecedented prosperity” once you factor in the underemployment statistics, housing unaffordability, the credit binge, the 500,000 plus middle aged men on the DSP, the difference between the “average wage” and what most people actually earn, entrenched pockets of disadvantage, stalling real wage growth, flat housing markets, etc, etc, etc.
cs, I’d like to see it happen, but that doesn’t mean it will.
Max McKew has as much chance of beating Howard as Max Headroom.
‘Think we should take Spiros’ advice and get a grip on er..reality
Agree Mark, things aren’t so brilliant for the most. Although nearly every afternoon I hear that the ASX has closed at another record high. Nice for some, although surely it must have blown a foo-foo valve by now.
Its an odd sort of race to the bottom for underdog status in Australia. Rudd was talking up Howard’s political savvy this arvo. There are no known knowns, lets just hope the terrirists can hold off until after the election. Everything crossed.
Spiros: I don’t think the electorate of Bennalong will have any probs voting out their member, PM or not, indeed swinging voters will vote against the incumbant because they are fed up with his rat nature. The economy however, regardless of who wins, is probably on way to big downturn, which if kicked out of office will be timely for the Libs to take another run at it in 3 years. Hope the ALP can steer us towards are more sustainable economy quicksmart.
Link, I think abend is right about Rudd’s tactics on the economy. However, the obvious counter to this is “if you’re going to do the same as we are, then stick with the ones with experience”. However, I anticipate that Labor will flesh out its economic themes as the year goes on and broaden the attack. I hope highlighting issues of poverty and structural disadvantage is one of those themes, but I’m not holding my breath. While people like Wayne Swan are very good at pointing out the fact that many people are not prospering, I fear that such issues may be consigned to the “class warfare” Latham bin. I hope not, and I hope Rudd sticks to what he said about social justice in his Monthly article last year.
tigtog claims to channel the national psyche:
Next he will be asking to try to remember our dreams.
Enough with the psychobabble. Rudd is enjoying the normal honeymoon granted a new opposition leader. Howard is suffering a mid-term slump plus the recession of the electoral pendulum.
At the moment the polling indicates that in Bennelong the LN/P is running behind the ALP 45-55 on two-party preferred vote. So now is a good time for Howard-haters to put their money where their foaming mouths are.
If tigtog really knows something about Howard’s political future he will lay an even money $20 bet that Howard will lose the election. I will take it.
Tigtog is a “she”, Jack, not a “he”.
Jack,
I’m not much of a punter on politics. Instead, I’ll bet you $20 that tigtog is female.
I think Bob saw her coming before we did, SHC. This one is a clear step up in class; Encourage To Group One sort of thing. MM’s prospects are better than our erstwhile candidate’s though.
Is it true, Sir Henry, that as an officer and a gentleman, you are punching out an essay: “The Pied Piper of Bennelong” as a special favour related to your self-described “infatuate” status, with respect of the esteemed Dauphine De Longueville, formerly of Mosman?
Mark on 26 February 2007 at 6:00 pm
That explains it.
The doomers have been prophesising a cataclysmic, economic down turn right about the time the ALP will have been in power, presuming they win, circa 2009. I just hope they are abreast of this possibility. Keating had a ’steady as she goes’ approach to managing an out of control economy. Not inventive or radical enough, and it sure blew its lid.
I was glad to hear the utter bullshit about our supposedly low unemployment rate being given some oxygen on ABC’S P.M. tonight. About time. Real unemployment, underemployment is running at around 20%. The people benefitting from the resources boom, comprise about 5-10% of the population. These are the realities of our ‘economy’ that the Coalition have been glossing over ostrich-like.
There is nothing particularly clever about the way the Howard government have managed the economy. They have nit-picked on the weakest, tightening screws, removing freedoms and upping taxes by stealth. Thank God the ALP have some creative brains onboard.