Us NSW Election guest bloggers have been a bit ordinary, haven’t we? I mean – the time when that really interesting thing happened on the hustings – we didn’t cover it! And then there was that other fascinating incident. Where were we? Nowhere! And when that knockout policy was announced – boy, you couldn’t see us for dust!
The truth is, the NSW Election would have to rate as one of the most uninspiring in years. An announcement is made by a Minister, with a beaming Local Member beside them. Media releases are deployed, photos are snapped, the whole thing gets half a page in the local newspaper, and off we go to the next one. Some of these announcements are very good, and deserve more attention. Some are not, and do not. Some of the Ministers are good and decent, and are sincere in their endeavour to advance progressive polices. Some are not. In the end, everything melds into an inexorable, inevitable, unenviable grind, as those who are working on the election campaign itself are well aware. Those working in marginal seats are about to enter the phase which requires the greatest dedication of time, resources and personnel, all to change – or make up – the minds of a few dozen people. For everyone else, it’s a tired jog to the finish line, the winner – excepting the biggest upset since the defeat of Jeff Kennett – already decided.
The real action, I suspect, will occur after the election.
For one thing, Peter Debnam‘s time as leader of the NSW Liberals is almost certainly over. Debnam’s bland leadership has come at a time when his party has never been more riven by factional battles and wracked with despair – in short, a time when it has never been in greater need of a strong leader (as I suggest elsewhere, this may well come in the person of a resurgent John Brogden, though many bridges must be crossed and hatchets buried before this happens).
Meanwhile, Morris Iemma‘s leadership has been solid, if unspectacular. He is not an indelible character, as was his predecessor, Bob Carr. He should be lauded for elevating a number of progressive issues such as mental health. However, he has also presided over the rescinding of nearly every contentious policy advanced under Carr’s leadership, particularly the controversial landland and poker machine taxes that set the noses of influential lobby groups out of joint. In the end, the perception that the government forms policy with a copy of the Daily Telegraph in one hand and a highlighter in the other is unavoidable.
And so, in both cases, we arrive at one of the conundrums of modern politics: at a time when calls for strong, visionary leadership are at their greatest, the leaders on offer are as safe and unthreatening as possible; acceptable consensus candidates rather than the species Paul Keating describes as `maddies’, and Bernard Shaw referred to as `the unreasonable man’. Though Iemma’s leadership is not under question, the cabinet he forms following the election and the MPs to whom he delegates responsibilities for the state’s most important issues will say much about his qualities as a leader. At least three MPs will be elevated to the Ministry given the departures of Carl Scully, Bob Debus and Milton Orkopoulous; perhaps more if underperforming Ministers are demoted. Navigating the factions will be a key test of the leadership of both Iemma and Debnam. Time will tell whether factional loyalty or genuine ability is rewarded. Though the likes of the Liberal Party’s David Clarke often seem to forget, voters tend to reward the latter rather than the former.
I once heard Neville Wran’s approach to leadership eloquently described as the ability to know how far the public could go, and to then push them just a little further. Perhaps, if any of our leaders were willing to push us past our comfort zones, we’d be more enthusiastic about talking about where they’d like to push us and why.
It’s hardly an inspiring election. A choice between a bunch of self-serving Bovver Boys in power and another bunch of ideologically-driven Neo-Con loonies seeking it.
And none of them worth spit.
Ho hum. I think most people have just tuned-out.
Labour will prolly romp back in, but frankly, they’ve little to be proud of.
Bring back Jack Lang.
Heh … I’m saving up all my good Jack Lang stuff for the 75th anniversary of the Harbour Bridge opening.
There’s plenty.
It’s the most boring election ever, except that if Peter Debnam wins it will be the worst election result ever, so onwards and upwards. Hust! Hust! (that being the verb of hustings, you see).
more to do but
Mino,
I love your work, but I think it’s a trifle unfair to describe Debbers as bland. He’s an established party leader who’s blundered along, furiously lobbing grenades at himself and his party while trying to hit his opponents. You could use many words to describe his leadership (comical, ludicrous, farcical, catastrophic come to mind) but never bland. Honestly, he’s been the Basil Fawlty of political leaders.
On the other hand, I don’t really get this desire to resuscitate Brogden. I always thought he was the embodiment of preppy blandness. About the only thing I can remember of his leadership is his demise. Sure, compared to Debnam he’s Pericles, but then Lady Macquarie’s Chair would be a better leader than Debnam. At least people would know the name.
I gave the media stick on Monday about the total non-story of Speedogate, but on reflection I can understand them giving in to the glee of it. There’s been fuck-all else to engage with this election.
Nice post, MM.
And look forward to Jack Lang reading!
Re – Brogden. Isn’t he CEO of an interest group or something similar now? Surely a cushier and better paid job with less hassles than being leader of the NSW Libs?
Tried to get onto the ALP website to get that “In the Navy” video, but like most things to do with Sussex Street, it isn’t working.
Anyone got a link?
By the way, noticed Kim cracked it and shut-sown posting on her “Right Wing Blow Back Thread”, evidently because she didn’t like what people were saying about Ann Coulter.
That gurl’s really gotta chill a bit. One Tocquemada was quite enough, thank you.
Evan, please stay on topic and avoid metacommentary on other threads.
Saw the “in the navy” vid on the 7 30 report – looked like a scream.
“the Basil Fawlty” of Australian politics.
Very accurate, mal.
Hopefully when he loses, he’ll be off to see Mr O’Reilly (Howard), taking the garden Gnome along with him.
Now that I’d pay to see.
What is it with all these Liberal opposition leaders and their dick togs, though? Desparate search for media space? Meant to depict them as fit, strong and ready to steer the ship of state? Mind you, Debnam arguably looked siller in board shorts.
Mark,
Either that or he’s seriously courting the gay vote.
Given that its former Leiutenant Debnam (RAN), it’s probably an each-way bet.
What was Imre Saluzinsky on about with the comments about Debnam coming from a “typical” lower middle-class background? Surely that’s not the case for most Liberal pollies. And Debbers certainly has the accent appropriate to a Member for Vaucluse.
Slightly OT, but I’ve just found out that Kate Lundy has a (radio) blog of sorts http://katelundy.blogspot.com/index.html
I make no judgement on the content, but good to see someone having a go outside the turgid party rubbish
Dunno about his family background, but as a graduate of the RAN Academy and an officer and gentleman, he is certainly someone who has more in common with the occupants of the officers ward-room that those of the stoker’s mess.
He’s probably representing Vaucluse cause they couldn’t get him elected in Bankstown.
Kate Lundy’s shown more smarts about the intertubes for many a long year than most pollies, Christine.
In The Liberals Ad is here
http://www.debnamrecord.com/radiotv.php#tv
Thanks Frank
Yep, thanks, Frank. That’s a bloody funny and clever ad, if just a teensy bit nasty!
No Probs, pity the downloadable version link isn’t working – it’s very well made and WAY better than the crappy liberal web ad they made of Rudd.
I just wonder how much the ALP paid for the rights to adapt In The Navy – and of course there is the well known story on how the US Navy went and made a TV ad based on the song to recruit future sailors, which was hastily dropped once it was explained to the Navy bosses the exact demographic the Village People were marketed at.
but but but but but but – hands up who thinks Iemma might just be kennetted? ALP pollng in 10 marginals has things a great deal closer than Newspoll would suggest. & if Debs is rolled post-loss, goes Pru get the job? The coconut would be so happy…
Otherwise, it just keeps rolling on, the bagmen are still circling Mrs Macquarie’s chair in their black beamers waiting for drop-off time
This is a whole new dimension on Speedogate
Methinks it’s worth putting it up on teh main page.
I think you’ll find that story came from ‘internal party polling’ Bernice. Beattie did the same thing in QLD. Helps frighten the troops.
The state election has rarely been at the top of the news here in Sydney. This isn’t good for the opposition.
State election – what state election?
I hope neither side get enough to form government and that they have to painstakingly put everything through the balance of power representatives. After all Labor has stuffed up too often and the Coalition does not offer an appealing alternative in the Sydney election.
I think the hung parliament is the only “fair” result that could come about. Probably not a good result for the state, but its pretty much what both these lack luster candidates deserve.
I don’t think the prospect of a Kennetting can be ruled out – Mark Arbib has a point when he suggests that volatility in individual seats makes the usual electoral pendulum pretty useless this time around (though he is using this theory very strategically) – but nor can the equally extraordinary possibility that the government will be returned with an increased majority. This seems inconceivable if you compare the government’s popularity now to the commanding lead it had in 2003.
I will have to find more expansive language than `bland’. True blandness, such as demonstrated by Peter Debnam, incorporates a myriad of related conditions – primarily, an inability to disrupt the status quo, be it on policy, within factions, or just standing up to a dissident (or alternatively, hearing them out). I, like George Bernard Shaw, see this as a precondition for good leadership, so long as the right fights are picked.
(Oh, and the Debnam Village People thing is available on Video Sendups.)
Vee and Steve – surely you jest! Parliament held to ransom by a few self-interested individuals? Don’t forget Australia was the only country to kick up a fuss about Adrian Lyne’s version of `Lolita’, and it was all to curry favour with Brian Harradine.
Wouldn’t look forward to it myself.
Minotaur, that just demonstrates that it’s the ideas of the individuals on the cross-bench that are important in a hung parliament.
If it had been Clover Moore instead of Brian Harradine holding a vital Senate vote, some laws might well have been different.
It has to be better than the last Vic election, surely
If only the DLP had been an issue before the count it might have been more interesting.
Only held to ransom by these individuals so long as both major parties let them.
As I said not a good result for the state, but Iemma has been seriously pissweak backing away from any important decision in the hope for holding out for another term and I have no confidence in him being able to do any better next term. Debnam on the other hand has been absolutely dreadful as well. So while I long for the ALP to be booted for being incompetent goons, I cannot in good conscience want a Debnam liberal government. A hung parliament to give the ALP a kick up the arse seems like the only alternative.
Fair point Minotaur. Debnam definitely lacks that certain something that would allow him to cut through and be heard. To be fair, I think a lot of his mistakes stem from excessive and over zealous attempts to do just that. In some ways, I actually feel quite sorry for him. There’s no doubt that he’s worked his arse off trying to his name and face (and budgie-smugglers) out in front of the public. He hasn’t done it effectively, but cutting through the thick smear of public indifference as an opposition leader must be a bloody hard slog. I think that it was just last week that the SMH was reporting that only about half of the state’s voters actually have a clue who he is.
My major hope from the election is that Iemma will actually start behaving like a premier once he has an election victory under his belt to validate his authority. At the moment he still acts like someone who’s woken up one morning and discovered he’s become premier. Meanwhile Sartor and Tripodi etc. continue to run around being obnoxious without being told to pull their heads in.
Times like these call for the bards from Monty Python: it’s four more years of silly government, regardless of the result. Labor might win outright or they’ll govern with a hung parliament like the Coalition did in 1991-95. If you think Iemma is risk-averse now (and he didn’t get where he is today by being bold), wait till you see
Surest proof of this was when the Roads Minister announced that new roads would be built, but refused to disclose where. In one forgotten incident lies the campaign, if not the state, in microcosm: arrogance, transport, enough urban planning to turn a beautiful setting ugly, and big big bucks.
If Carl Scully had been elected I’d have bet the rent on it. However, Arbib is simply what is known as “lying” when he says Labor is in any sort of trouble in this election, and neither Arbib or Iemma are damn-the-torpedo Kennett types.
Oh, and mal: no sensible person need care who Debnam is because he hasn’t made the case that he’d be better. Slightly different emphasis on a few details, but not better. Brogden had the ability to convince people that things would be better if he became Premier, and Baillieu may have that ability next time. Losing Opposition Leaders can only offer slight differences – some, like Latham or Doyle, have what it takes to convince voters that things would be so much worse if they were in government.
If you think Iemma is risk-averse now (and he didn’t get where he is today by being bold), wait till you see wat he’d be like under a hung parliament.
Basically, Iemma’s campaign motto is, “We’re shit, but at least we’re trying,’ and Debnam’s is, “I love police, I love police, I love police, workers and Muslims are evil, I love police.’
I’ll think I’ll go Greens. See what ‘democracy’ under capitalism offers you.