It was news to me about the wages share of GDP being at such a low point.

steve, on that point, the source is the report on WorkChoices by David Peetz discussed in this post:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/03/26/workchoices-one-year-on/

I didn’t know about it til I read the report, but when you think about it, it stands to reason – all the indicators show a very low aggregate rise in wages, and falls in some bits of some sectors in real terms, and look at the stockmarket and the corporate profit reports.

This could still happen, but given the issues that have turned against Howard (e.g. interest rate, Iraq), the robust challenge of Rudd, and the slight whiff of â??time for a changeâ?? in the air, it will take something pretty big to change the dynamics. Knowing the way Howard operates, make that â??big, nasty and scaryâ??.

I think that’s basically right, Chris.

I also think, as I said in the article, that the budget will be key for the government. If, after a few weeks, it has sunk like a stone (and let’s not forget Amanda Vanstone’s “sandwich and a milkshake” quip a few years ago – the electoral power of tax cuts can be radically overstated), then I think the shift will be entrenched. I expect, though, that the government, rather than going for big ticket budget spending for its own sake, will be paying careful attention to crafting a budget to reinforce the themes it intends to take into the election. So there’ll be some clues to the campaign there too.

The other joker in the pack is if Labor falls back in the polls (and I think it may well) – the media will resuscitate the “Ratty is a political genius” and “honeymoon is over” lines and these will in themselves have an effect. Though the thing for Labor is not to get spooked by them and to continue to craft a future focussed message. The media’s “power” mainly lies in the power parties give it when they take heed of it.

I also wonder how much behind the scenes action there is with these guys. Ramsey bought this out with Rudd, wrt the story about Rudd’s childhood, which lead to an asinine discussion on the Insiders on Sunday, where they were happy to talk about Labor’s behind the scenes transgressions, but not the Liberals (though Glen Milne did admit to having received a blast from the PM at one point). I seem to remember Tim Colebatch (from the Age) writing about Costello being quite prepared to offer a double-barreled blast for any economic criticism of the government. But there must be more subtle ways of wielding influence as well, such as being cut off from the drip feed of inside information and so on.

Anyway, enough love-in: one of my pet peeves is the commentariat’s continuous lauding of Howard’s political acumen and all-round brilliance. Disciplined, focussed and opportunistic – I’ll give him those – but Howard has never struck me as a master strategist or even highly intelligent. He’s a man who’s had 33 years of practice at only one thing (political cut and thrust) so you would hope he had mastered it by now!

The way Rudd is effortlesly portraying the ALP as the party of the future, with Howard seemingly unable to counter effectively, shows up his limitations. They were always there, but Rudd’s predecessors were unable to capitalize on them for various reasons. I also think it’s more than coincidence that many of Howard’s recent missteps (e.g. the Obama outburst) have occurred after the departure of Arthur Sinodonis, his apparently very capable chief of staff.

Still, I’m sure the columnists will be out there telling us how John Howard, father of the nation, that protean force of Australian politics, will somehow conjure electoral gold from lead, once again. He’ll put the neophyte Rudd back in his rightful place (after taking him off the surgeon’s table – heh), ensuring Howard’s ascension to the Liberal pantheon.

This could still happen, but given the issues that have turned against Howard (e.g. interest rate, Iraq), the robust challenge of Rudd, and the slight whiff of “time for a change” in the air, it will take something pretty big to change the dynamics. Knowing the way Howard operates, make that “big, nasty and scary”.

Note my next para though – my punt at the moment would be a reasonable Labor win, but not a landslide.

I think Labor might indeed win narrowly, but I also think Labor might win big and Labor might lose.

Gee, way to go out on a limb, Mark.

I agree with you, however, about the commentariat’s obsession with the last election campaign as a form guide for the next. The way things are shaping up, a more apt precedent for this year’s election is not 2001 or 2004, but the last time a long-in-the-tooth government faced the electorate after presiding over 3 or more interest rate rises – 1996.

Fingers crossed.

The Qld Libs are continuing to play up like second hand lawnmowers with Tim Nicholls refusing to meet Flegg today to explain his leadership challenge and Seeney the Nat Opposition Leader demanding that the Libs sort out the leadership brawl that the Lib factions are involved in.

Although the leadership challenge is allegedly dead, it won’t lie down. Seeney refuses to throw Nicholls from the Shadowcabinet front bench and Flegg continues to limp along as a lame duck leader but Nicholls can’t get three or four people to join him in the coup. All this has to be annoying to Howard who has won hands down in Queensland in the past but the infighting this time could be terminal.

He needs to be shot with a silver bullet, staked and burned before I’ll believe he’s dead.
And even then I’ll have nightmares of dwarves with long sharp knives out.

I won’t believe it until I personally drive the stake into his black heart. However, even then, chances are the same voodoo that keeps Ruddocks re-animated corpse shuffling around may well be used to resurrect Australia’s own Lazarus. So it will also require a corpse burning.

In the UK Blair even had intelligent writers like J.Hari on board for a long time.

Its lame duck season but don’t forget duck seasons get banned.

The lying rodent used rat cunning to extract all front line troops already remember. He could hold himself hostage like the sheriff of Rock Ridge.

He needs to be shot with a silver bullet, staked and burned before I’ll believe he’s dead.
And even then I’ll have nightmares of dwarves with long sharp knives out.

Congrats on Milnes imitation as flattery Mark. Matthew Price is allright and Luke is back. Just got to crucify John.