The biggest danger for the government is that no one will take any particular notice of the budget. Not only have previous “budget bounces” been derisory, all the signs are that Howard has increasingly been written off by the punters as a tired and too clever by half politician. That $60 billion spending spree in the last campaign launch was a very bad omen for Howard. All he probably needed to do to win was hang up a sign outside each polling booth which said “Mark Latham is the Labor leader” but the purported political genius is a good judge of his own campaign skills.
But it’s not voter cynicism I’m talking about, or not just. It’s the cynicism of largely symbolic spending announcements which are supposed to win over a particular segment of the electorate. More often than not, except for the actual cheques in the mail, or the milkshake and a sandwich we all enjoyed after a tax cut, nothing happens. Where’s all the money diverted from the Telstra sale in 1996 gone? It was meant to fix the Murray Darling, remember… Or what about all the money allocated in several terms for “better telecommunications”? How many of the technical schools are operating and what difference have they made? Has the skills shortage been solved by giving apprentices a toolbox? Have baby bonuses improved early childhood outcomes? Have Australian flags improved public education? Have tv ads won the “war on drugs”? What concrete benefits to public services and infrastructure have the Howard government actually delivered?
To be fair to them, that’s not traditionally been the role of the Commonwealth. But we’ve seen Howard and all the gang spend the last few years denouncing the states day in and day out. Yet announcements made to deal with water – for instance Turnbull’s pipeline from the Clarence to somewhere or other in South East Queensland – are demonstrably just political thought bubbles. If the government have succeeded in convincing electors that they are responsible for doing something meaningful in areas like infrastructure and education, then it’s long past time for some results to be evident.
Focus group research Graham Young and I conducted for the last Queensland election showed that voters discounted the big ticket promises from both sides. They just weren’t interested in “$100 million for better schools” or whatever, because they had formed the view that pollies just throw around dollar signs and electorally appealing buzz words with abandon in campaigns. All they cared about was concrete action – most particularly on water and health. While reluctant to re-elect Beattie, they had concluded that he at least was competent and would respond to what they perceived as real needs in infrastructure and services. And as Beattie has recently said, “when has the commonwealth ever been any good at running anything?”
The destruction of federalism by the Howard coalition poses great political danger for the conservatives.
In the past, they could sit on their bums and claim they were steering the economic ship of state without much actual responsibility for anything of concrete importance to voters other than defence (which, with some exceptions, isn’t something that actually affects most in an immediate fashion) and social welfare. There’ve been enough stuff ups there which many people have experienced first hand, along with the pleasures of dealing with the ATO, to lay the grounds for thinking that they’ve got no lien on administrative savvy.
But if they’re going to move into the states’ territory of service delivery and infrastructure provision, they need to be able to actually deliver. And deliver something more meaningful to the electorate as a whole than the other stand by of federal budgets – $20 million here and there for the local tourism thingamebob or whatever. I think that there’s a very good chance that voters have already decided that they’re all talk and no action in areas like climate change, infrastructure and education. But we’ll see.
Great post Mark!
I wonder if anyone has ever calculated whether there is a dollar threshold over which a certain percentage of the population will pay more attention. Will it be 60 billion this year, 90, or 10? Does it actually make any difference to most people what figure is announced in “increased spending” for something or does it just have to have the words “million” or “billion” at the end?
I mean, I know in science and higher education they throw around press releases with headlines like “$60 million spent on ARC centres of excellence!”, which sounds like a huge amount of money, until you do the math and realize that each centre of excellence employs 100 people and that there are something like 10 of them and you quickly work out that basically they are getting almost no money at all. The thing is, that $60 million is a BIG number to a lot of people that aren’t used to financing big projects.
$600 is a big sum to a battler and you lot do not get it!
Evidently Howard has succeeded in attracting at least one of the Maoist votes!
I am battler
hear me roar
In numbers too big to ignore
And I owe too much to go back an’ pretend
’cause I’ve heard it all before
And I’ve been down there on the floor
No one’s ever gonna keep me down again
CHORUS
Oh yes I am wise
But it’s wisdom born of pain
Yes, I’ve paid the interest
But look how much I gained
If I have to, I can vote Rat again
I am strong, but
highly leveraged
I am battler
Kim I will be voting INFORMAL and I will advocate that you do the same
Of course you would vote informal Patrick because it is really a vote for the Coalition that you vote for by doing this. A vote has to be lodged against a Governnment for a change to occur. The cheque from the Tories is in the mail.
Seriously though the Costello budgets need to bought down in a minimum of two parts. The Core promises part which are for the Farmers and Big Business constituency and the Non -core promises which is the famous ‘Fistfull of Dollars’ for everyone else.
For example ABC Learning feeding Childcare changes should be listed in the Core area and climate change initiatives in the non core as they will be clawed back either on winning an election or the next budget. Changes to assist the community generally need to be seen as noncore
The things that have been listed in past budgets are implemented and clawed back in the next budget when the political heat moves to other issues. Outcomes have not been a measure for this Government, put political trickery rules.
Expectations of a spending spree and lots of pork barreling are so high that I doubt anything Costello comes up with will be a surprise.
I don’t think the governemnt’s problem is a lack of pork barreling. At the moment, either because of Rudd or just because of reality there seems to be a feeling that the government is lacking on the “vision thing”. That can’t really be fixed in a single budget.
The basic problem is that the government is already behind in the polls, so it has to actively do things to get ahead. But whatever it does, no matter how great it is, the question will be asked “if this is so great why wasn’t it in last year’s budget, and the one before that ?”
They did not lay down the foundation for a vision of Australia’s future or for a response to issues like climate change over the entire term. Oppositions can do things at the last minute. If governments try to do things during the election campaign they have to explain why they weren’t doing anything about them for the previous 3 years.
Or, in the case of climate change, why they haven’t done anything for the past 11 years.
Mr Howard sent me a very useful “alert but not alarmed” fridge magnet that I use to hold the take-out menu of my favourite Lebanese restaurant.
Lefty E, for this relief, much thanks.
That was basically about offering one fairly unpalatable move (privatising Telecom) to prevent an even worse one (environmental degredation). In this case he might have borrowed from keating’s songbook. Keating offered a bailout of the Victorian State Bank on condition that the privatisation of the Commonwealth Bank be accepted. It eliminated the resistance to privatision, even if it was a bit sleight-of-hand (the Vic State Govt still had all the debts).
Howard’s was even more sleight-of-hand. The money was put into emvironmental issues, but at the same time, according to Kenneth Davidson, the Commonwealth funding allocation was reduced. So what they gained with one hand they lost with the other.
Yes, a cynical electoral bribe – and otherwise the expenditure is an just an elabroate admission that they are a government completely out of ideas. All the big ticket items just follow Rudd around like a bad smell: Solar rebates, childcare, a dental plan, a farier IR system, and wow, investment in infrastructture to power futre economic growth etc!
Sounds like Rudd’s agenda.
I reckon Rudd should play it a cynically as Howard: we’ll keep the
bribespre-paid rebates coming – but you’ll get it every year, not just at elction time.“lots of pork barreling are so high that I doubt anything Costello comes up with will be a surprise”….said swio.
Right now, cartoonists around Australia are drawing ‘pork barrels’ with Cossie, sitting on one, with with a tiny little tale. It is to their drawings I wll be looking too, for balance. It will not be to the conga line of suckholes, that pretend to be the ‘balanced’, press gallery.
If Labor were to win the Federal election, which is still unlikely, given the extreme advantages of incumbency and ‘the win at all costs’ mentality of those born to rule…… a fine chance, will be available, to twig the relationship between the Fed boss, who holds all the cash and options, and their almost employees, the premiers.
Presently, the states have all the important roles to fill, but are hampered, by the flash, fully paid up boss, who will squander around 15 billion to provide fine driving experiences for those lucky enough to be RAAF pilots; while many old codgers sit at home, in pain, and are unable to get their teeth fixed.
Joe2 there’s no doubt that the Independent and Howard Government handpicked board of the Reserve Bank has given permission to Costello for the free wheeling spending on anything that comes to mind in the budget tonight.
I’m sure that the great responsible position taken by the board will be reflected in the cartoons you mentioned. Obviously the threat of interest rises and inflation were a passing fantasy with no substance at all.
Just like the interest rate rises last year, a pimple on the face of history. Only hurt the poor so who cares as far as the Government and their mates at the Reserve Bank are concerned.
This story seem quite apropos: “Schools wait in vain for flagpole cash”
Try again
This story seem quite apropos: “Schools wait in vain for flagpole cash�
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/schools-wait-in-vain-for-flagpole-cash/2007/05/03/1177788310580.html
Spot on Mark. It would be nice to see Fairfax do a ‘Whatever happened to’ series of stories on great budget initiatives of the past. How many motorists have actually switched to using LPG? How many schools have employed chaplains? And as you say, some evaluation of idiotic things like the alternative federal TAFE system would be valuable.
Truth is Howard’s mob have had so much money sloshing around in federal coffers it’s been an embarrassment and they’ve been able to waste it on all sorts of things without copping any serious scrutiny. Defence ‘oh hell just round it up to the nearest $billion’ spending is a staggering scandal but for some reason voters don’t seem to notice, maybe because it would be contrary to the Spirit of Anzac or something.
Anybody who’s ever had to deal with Centrelink knows that the states have no monopoly on administrative incompetence. In the USA some true conservatives have turned on the Bush Administration for betraying the fundamental conservative ideals of small government and prudent administration … the way Howard’s bunch have escaped a similar fate suggests how few genuine conservatives there are in this country.
Well it seems most of the budget has been leaked to the Greens so it will be old hat by the time he delivers the budget anyway.
Ken, the Fin had a nice piece a few weeks ago on unspent spending.