I’ll have something to say about Dollar Sweetie’s rabbits (bring back the parliamentary tradition of wearing hats to make a point of order, I say!) tomorrow – I’ve been asked to do some political analysis of the budget by New Matilda, but here’s a thread where anyone can post any commentary, analysis and links. Someone out there may even be liveblogging the budget though I can hardly think of a worse way to spend a Tuesday night.
Update: More blogosphere budget commentary so far at Catallaxy and Polemica, and from the three Andrews, Bartlett, Leigh and Norton. I’m sure there’ll be much more tomorrow, so please feel free to link to any posts in comments and I’ll update again when I get a chance.
Further update: More at Blogocracy, John Quiggin and The Poll Bludger (not really, but watch for the comments thead). I think Quiggin gets the politics spot on.
Yet more posts at Ambit Gambit, Catallaxy, and a couple at Troppo, but it doesn’t seem to want to load so I can’t link directly.
And Ken at Surfdom wants to spread his outrage!
Cossie, where did you find that hairdresser?
Yep, it’s great to look after old church friends.
That spivvy suit would do Alexe Sayle proud, but why the blue and white tie, apart from the footy?
“Remember, Cossie, first impressions mean everything, when you are looking for a new job”.
Joshua Gans is liveblogging with his son. And given Gans profession of course he’s having fun.
Ok, maybe its a daughter.
Some Light Rerading for the Number Crunchers out there
http://www.budget.gov.au/
All I can say it’s Boom Time For Mums with Spoilt Brats.
This obscene ‘divvying up’ spectacle is an open invitation for a global revolution. As most Australians now form part of the gated global elite that is corrupt and violent then they should have no future – they deserve no future.
Death to Australia!
From Malcom Farr:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,21696253-948,00.html
I am one of those people working on Budget night. I have just posted the front page of the newspaper I work for. A typical family is featured. If you read between the lines of their quote, they are not bowled over and easily see through for the attempted bribe that this is. The father says he’d rather forgo the tax cuts, so the money could be better spent on community services.
I draw the broad conclusion that the punters have decided already. The Smirker may have convinced himself and his cronies, but the voters are not buying it. IT’S TAKE THE MONEY AND PASS THE AMMUNITION.
Wow. I’m listening to the 7.30 Report’s budget coverage, and it sounds like the budget is a fizzer. The correspondent said it’s not an election-winner.
Yeah, even the Speech sounded uninspiring. I wonder how the Herdsman Lake sub-branch of the LIberal Party (aka The West Australian) will spin this ?
Now Access Economics says the tax cuts and spending risk interest rate rises — “a carefully balanced gamble”. And Michael Brissenden says there is plenty of money reserved for the election campaign. He thinks that’s why climate change didn’t get much: so that the Govt can dump money on it closer to the election.
Costello looked tired at points, and also as if he were pepping himself up with substances at others. He’s also looking a bit older, not the youthful Treasurer he once seemed. Is some of this due to a realisation which has been sinking in that he may never be PM, unless he can hang on till 2013?
His performace with Kerry and Tony was a bit the same – part manic, part jaded.
Have heard nothing of the unsigned and unfunded Sate and Territory Disability Agreement being funded in the budget.
Apparently there is a defunding of indigenous housing programs
Dental care is all geared towards training dentists and propping up the private system.
Childcare benefit increases look like being eaten up by the providers as they did last time a one off grab from the providers countered the increase to families.
Education is preserved as a plaything of the rich with the cap taken off university fees
No funding for TAFE after a slashing from Costello a few years ago.
Nothing for the public Hospital system
No mention of urban Mental health funding but money thrown like confetti at rural problems
it’s a typical costello budget,promises plenty in the next couple of years but never spends the money.
education fund crap idea,
still no tax relief for low paid/ casual work
[Seinfeldian open-mouth pause]
OK, now that that joke’s done, the ADF will be spending more each year in marketing and ’service branding’ than on the Iraq deployment, supposedly now the frontline of the war on terror, and twice as much each year than on our force stabilising Timor Leste, a neighbour to whom we owe a great debt.
Up with the ‘punch above our weight on a global scale’ doctrine! Here’s to hardenering and networkering! Hurrah for Australianism, shorthand for being seen as dickheads by the rest of the world!
caps OFF uni fees
omfg…
Well, some Crikey head reckons Cossie is privately saying the government is rooted.
I believe it when I see it. But as for Cossie – he looks to me like he just dont care. And why would he. Where’s his motivation? Another three budgets? Woohoon’t. And a guaranteed electoral disaster at the end, while he’s been at the helm 9 months?
Maybe he would prefer 6 years in opposition and a decent crack at PM when the mining boom is up.
Word of the day, Lefty E!
Yes, let’s sniff the nuances. I’m with haiku. $weetie tried to jolly Tony Jones but it didn’t work, so he fell back on (1) smug retort how better off we are without a budget deficit (2) smirk, smirk (3) very predictable bunch of election-mode sloganeering on automatic (4) comparison with 1996 (5) more smug looks. I reckon it was one of Zwilnik’s operatives.
The really interesting stuff is how Bill Morrison is now covering up Gough’s arse over the Balibo 5 murder. Sad, seeing the octo-nano genarians going round one more time. But I do not feel sorry for them. They’ll go to their graves now with this, history’s Mark of Cain. It’s Karma, man.
Heard nothing of funding for ABC or SBS
Apparently there is a rent assistance scheme for over 25 yo’s on Austudy.
The pork of the night award was a $500 bribe to anyone on a senior’s card and I think I heard the smirker say that tax has been dropped from pensions.
Here is the Budget Paper for the ABC
http://www.dcita.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/67579/2007-08_CITA_PBS_04_ABC.pdf
and SBS:
http://www.dcita.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/67657/2007-08_CITA_PBS_15_SBS.pdf
And I don’t think they got any extra cash.
Interesting pre election article from Peter Martin explaining productivity growth and dangers of an out of touch Government. It has always astounded me how regularly this Government has to amend it’s figures which have proven more rubbery in the Costello era than most others.
Look, a Pony!
God, you people can whinge. It’s a good budget and you should just say so or be quiet.
Hmm, I think the government will need better talking points than that. Is that comment understood to be accompanied by a smirk?
It seems the only new funding for SBS & the ABC is for Digital Radio.
http://www.minister.dcita.gov.au/media/media_releases/$10.5_million_for_community_and_national_digital_radio_broadcasting/
This is a very sound Commonwealth budget that reflects the tremendous strength of the Australian economy and sound governance. Limited tax cuts, supply-side measures in training and education that are useful when an economy is close to full employment and a worthwhile initiative in setting up an endowment fund for higher education.
Also useful because it is politically smart – it offers the best chance that I have seen for a while in retaining by far the stronger political grouping in Australian political leadership – it should help keep the trade union bullies out of power. It is hard to know what Kevin Rudd will say in his reply speech – you didn’t do enough, you stole our policies, election budget or ‘finally’. My guess is an unconvincing combination of all of the above along with some smiling pictures of Kevin Rudd saying its ‘time for a change’ and Maxine McKew saying that she favours ‘doing something real’.
This budget is political but its strength is that it can be delivered. It is the ultimate answer to Labor Party hypocrisy – provide an economy with close to full employment, low inflation, the highest private investment rates for decades and huge budget surpluses and you can start to deliver the type of society we want.
Far better than traditional Labor Party no production – high spending options and Gillard-style attempted restorations of the class war between labour and capital. It is a budget than demonstrates the irrelevance of Labor Party ideology and the triumph of market-driven approaches. Yippee!
Ask, and Harry Clarke provides. With tongue.
Well, the government benches didn’t exactly look lively and excited and full of “woohoo now we’ve got Rudd on the run” type sentiments. Ratty looked like he’d rather be anywhere else.
Im not sure the budget’s exciting enough that Rudd actually needs to respond. Where’s are the electoral killer punches?
Maybe Costello is spending the Future Fund on speed for himself? That might be damaging.
Seriously, I reckon Dollar Sweetie has really proved himself a dud.
My prediction (based on my own tendency to fall asleep when faced with the details of budgets) is that the main point that will resonate is $16 a week.
That would be a squib that has risen three times and is slowly sinking to the bottom of the swimming pool.
If anyone is looking for comic relief, Price interviews Shanahan on a video on The Australian’s site.
Shorter News Ltd: It’s the shiznit! Brilliant! “It’s great”, the Coalition are sooooooooooo clever!!!
“Costello has wedged Labor on this budget”
blah blah blah
Shanahan predicts a “budget bounce”.
Surprise, bloody, surprise.
But he knows that he has to vote for Costello to get his own tax cut.
The Budget papers
Q. [from Lefty E] : “Where’s are the electoral killer punches?”
A.[from Steve] : “The pork of the night award was a $500 bribe to anyone on a senior’s card ”
See, I’ve got one of them thingys…you know… a senior’s card.
And I’m cheap.
Think of all the things I can buy for $500!
So he’s got my vote.
Cross my heart and hope to die Mr. Costello, I’ll vote for you now.
Trust me.
I think this budget is a very strategic slow-boil wedge against Rudd.
There are few items in this budget that could be opposed by the ALP on any electoral grounds. The superannuation one-off, 3-fold yield is a good idea and I will be encouraging all my staff to make a sizeable voluntary contribution before June 30.
Education funds sound good in theory. A lot of tax churning for low-middle earners. More goodies for breeders etc. Big defense increases which will be good news to marginal seats with a high population of servicepeople (eg Herbert).
Sure, there is no whizz-bang in this budget, but I think that is the point. How will Rudd’s Education Revolution compare to the Education (Future) Fund? No funding directed towards socially controvertial issues. Very little ground here for an attack from the Rudd-flavoured ALP (Liberal Party Lite). No room to attack the budget for being inflationary or expansionist.
Assessment – very subtle budget. As someone(!) once said, I thought Howard may just be planning to do Rudd slowly!
How predictable from THe Oz:
Isn’t anyone going to cheer the fact that the income tax relief:
(1) cuts the lowest tax rate;
(2) raises the threshold for the second-lowest tax rate; and
(3) more than triples the low-income offset?
The relief is therefore aimed squarely at low to middle income earners, while at the same time, as Lindsay Tanner himself says, is unlikely to be inflationary and only marginally increases the chances of an interest rise?
A brilliant outcome for some of the least fortunate in our society, I would say.
BBB
Antonio, I think Costello has wedged himself, but I’ll explain why in New Matilda tomorrow.
Second Kimberella’s suggestion of watching the Shanahan and Price vid on the Oz’ page – I thought the Melbourne comedy festival was over.
When Ross Gittins of all people thinks it is a good Budget, you would have to think that Labor have their work cut our for them explaining to the electorate how and where they can do better.
Swan did an awful lot of agreeing with the government on the post-match analysis on the ABC tonight.
The most important thing Swan said, Guy, (to Jones’ and O’Brien’s surprise) was that Labor would not dip into next year’s surplus to pay for election spending. Howard will. Connect the dots.
Who could go to bed wuthout the sobstory of the night.
There’s a fairly good indication of what themes Labor will push in response from Swan:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21695829-1702,00.html
No suprises. Some very blatant bribes. I guess all the things you could do with a budget start to look desperate when you’re 20 points behind in the polls and everyone knows it.
And don’t forget folks, it’s the cynicism, stupid!…
Well, I watched shanahan and Price, and I’m still not sure where the electoral bite is. Neutralising labour on some fronts at best, which isn’t exactly a “wedge”, is it Dennis?
Are the libs ‘ALP lite’ now?
Did you check out the business reporter who came on after Shanahan and Price, Lefty E?
Pure comedy gold.
Swan agreed with tax cuts, agreed to not raid university funds, agreed to maintain surplus at 1% GDP, agreed it was a good budget.
Swans only argument was on productivity and he said that broadband will lift productivity.
When he said that they had not spent enough on climate change, he is unable to say what exactly enough is himself.
The guy from Access Economics should be sacked, tax cuts cant be inflationary.
This Budget won’t cut the mustard with the punters H. You are now geeing yourself up because in your heart of hearts you know that the party is over for you. The ALP knows whose man you are (as you have boasted). Might as well take early retirement and exit with some dignity intact. Go and watch birds.
And therein lies the key to Labor’s approach.
Do you reckon Howard won’t spend next year’s surplus in about ten minutes during the campaign?
I’m not sure why Labor not opposing some of the measures is taken to mean that Labor won’t have anything to say.
And you can bet your fourteen bucks or whatever your tax cut is, rog, that Labor will be talking about the actual implications of the Education Fund for the effective privatisation of higher education. The money only goes to buildings and research. Caps taken off domestic full fee paying students – you can tell where the government thinks teaching funding should come from – and it’s not them.
Swan won’t need to raid any “funds”. Labor will be running with its fiscal trilogy. Don’t expect Labor to try to “trump” Costello’s stuff with big spending announcements.
Hehe… Treasury “declares the drought over”, ay Scott?
Is there anthing this budget cant do??!!
Only buildings and research? Why, you’re quite right, Mark. What a waste. Far better to spend the money on ‘inflationary’ wage rises for academics! Pathetic.
BBB
Most of the above comments are very valid critiques and commentary. However, looking at the budget pragmatically I think we need to bear in mind that rusted on lefties will ALWAYS vote for the left and rusted on righties will ALWAYS vote for the right. Costello could have reinstituted “free (sic) Education” and left voters would still vote ALP.
I think a more useful way of looking at these things is “how many swinging votes will these move in the marginal seats”. My own gut feeling after campaigning over a few years is that the most thoughtful voters are particularly (1) women in [heterosexual] relationships between the age of 30-60, (2) young people between the age of 18-25 and (3) families with a significant but largely manageable (by present estimates at least!) debt burden.
Trying as hard as possible to eschew essentialism, my general feeling over the years is that thoughtful non-tribal women voters in category (1) will be quite pleased with some of the budget measures relating to super, tax, education and childcare. Furthermore, the budget doesn’t seem extreme or harsh which is a big plus.
Young people in category (2) are definitely from my experience FAR more right-wing than those in a similar category 10 years ago. Many people in category (2) are openly Liberal-leaning and pro-Howard particularly if they did not receive a tertiary education in the liberal Sciences or liberal Arts. This budget won’t have that much effect on them I think. That said, I have yet to hear anything from the ALP that is swaying votes in category (2) in either my workplace, my classes or my tutorials.
Families in category (3) are the lifeblood of Howard’s success and have clearly benefitted from every budget since 2001. I have thus far seen very little evidence that voters in this category IN MARGINAL SEATS will shift away from Howard.
But let’s wait and see. It’s all very interesting…!
That’s facile, BBB. Most wage rises for academics have been running at around 3% a year averaged over the term of an EBA, which is behind the private sector average. And the peanuts/monkeys issue comes in here. Given that the starting salary for a lecturer with a PhD is somewhere between 58 and 62k depending on what uni you’re at, and all those people have done at least 7 years of higher education, it’s not that much. In fields like law, health, engineering, etc, there’s an obvious temptation to go where the money is and even us humble social scientists with better methodological training than most people going into public sector policy jobs could usually command about 10 grand more without even thinking of the private sector.
But the real issue is the number of academics per student, not the pay of academics.
Update: More blogosphere budget commentary so far at Catallaxy and Polemica, and from the three Andrews, Bartlett, Leigh and Norton. I’m sure there’ll be much more tomorrow, so please feel free to link to any posts in comments and I’ll update again when I get a chance.
I didn’t think Swan looked too concerned on 7.30 Report. Pretty chirpy in fact.
So he should be!
Frank – Accountants don’t generally do tax returns for people who the simplified tax return would generally apply to. For those clients that it would be suitable for are low margin. Tax Agents like H&R Block are more likely losers.
In fact I half expected Swan to thank Costello for delivering the first Rudd budget…
One thing not touched here, is the almost terminal complexity of the tax and benefits system. Costello is totally unwilling/lazy to do anything about it.
The tax system is virtually on the point of collapse. The staff at the ATO try hard, but its virtually impossible to have any understanding of the morass of conflicting rules.
The benefits scheme is no better- more and more churn, as people have to pay out in tax then fiddle around endlessly.
As for the training and apprenticeship system – this is also a mess- a morass of state and federal rules makes it virtually impossible to work out what is actually formally required to obtain a job in a certain field.
The Business Council of Australia does have a point – red tape is growing, as this lazy treasurer keeps doing special deals and creates more and more exemptions, instead of looking at the system as a whole. Not sure if Swan would do any better.
Further update: More at Blogocracy, John Quiggin and The Poll Bludger (not really, but watch for the comments thead.
I think Quiggin gets the politics spot on.
I am so impressed by the tax cuts and the generosity behind it. Wow if you earn $11,000 you are given $2.88 in the hand. I guess that covers 50% of the cost of 1 cup of coffee at a cafe. It does not quite cover the cost of my one-way bus ticket to work. Indeed, as I have not made it to 11,000 dollars of salary this year I probably won’t even receive the promised $2.88 a week extra. Beyond my self-centric complaint, the rest of the arithmetic involves smoke and mirrors for the “needy” and the “battler”.
No imagination on climate change/global warming problems – I don’t have $14,000 to afford solar energy on the roof and so I won’t be able to avail myself of the $8,000 rebate. How many other people are in the same boat?
The money for university buildings is fine. However what about the funding of actual education, library collections of books and journals, funding for post-graduate research? If you were the chancellor at UWS (and parallel institutions) would you be doing cartwheels of acrobatic bliss this morning over the funds? Hardly!
Wow $500 handout to pensioners — I figure that means a pensioner is being handed one extra fortnight of normal pension payments.
I would not vote for the Coalition even under threat of being herded off to Buchenwald. The money tree of this Budget does not impress me. It is one big yawn.
Further to my comment last night, I was somewhat surprised at the response of the electorate to the Budget, as typified by vox pops I looked through. I have trawled through the comments in the MSM this morning. “Nigel” hereunder seems a representative sample of the mood:
This seems to be a watershed of some sort. Call it “loss of innocence” or “sullen electorate” but it seems that the enough voters now will not be tricked into voting for a Liberal majority. The Pravdaustralian is doing its best to flog a dead horse but there is a downside for $weetie in throwing truckloads of cash at the punteriat. They are thinking, “hang on a minute, there was no money for hospitals, public transport, pre-schools, schools, dental programs, higher education, schools, single-mum pensions; it was necessary to have the disabled and mentally-ill to undergo demeaning and absurd (Kafkaesque) work tests (because that ’sent a strong message’) – but now, all of a sudden, there is money. And it turns up on the eve of an election to save the hide of a political operator who will not go away.” It’s like some sort of cargo cult.
Yes, there is a definitely perception out there that the Budget is a sham, and that its main purpose is political and not as an instrument of policy to make life better or easier. This government was mean and tricky, as characterised by one of their own. And it remains mean and tricky. Its very nature is made flesh in the shape of the John Winston Howard.
Whoever saw Blue Murder, will recall the scene on a cruiser anchored a few kilometres off the Sydney Heads, when crim Neddy Smith is tying a long rope to the ankle of police bagman Brian Alexander. The other end of the coiled rope is tied to an Early Cooka stove. Neddy then heaves the cooker off the side of the boat and as the rope uncoils, he bids Brian a good-bye: “See ya c…”
The rope is now uncoiling for the Rodent.
It’s a big government budget. More spending on this, more spending on that.
It’s a budget that could easily have been delivered by a Labor government.
If it had been, Harry the free market economist would have gone nutso about how irresponsible it all is and how all the extra spending should have instead gone into serious tax cuts, not the pissant ones we got.
But Harry’s tribalist instincts have taken over his thought processes. Because he thinks the budget will give a political boost to his side, he thinks it’s a good budget, even though it betrays the things he stands for the most (putting to one side Harry’s self-interest in supporting the boost to higger education spending.)
Antonio, to his credit, is more nuanced.
QUick take on the ‘education fund’. This is one shoe, guys. The other shoe, to be dropped as soon as possible after an election win, is the heel-toe whammy of completely deregulated fees, and the sudden revelation that the $5 billion is the last injection of university/research capital funding you’ll see from the Commonwealth, ever.
A $5 billion fund is very welcome, because the income from it (say $250m per year) is there forever.
But it is small potatoes in the scheme of things. This is for the entire higher education sector. Some universities in the US have endowments 10 times as large, just for themselves.
Our highest priority?
That shoe has already dropped, Guise.
Costello announced that caps on full fee paying domestic students have been removed.
The fund only funds research and capital works.
Who’s going to pay for teaching?
Students.
It’s the biggest step yet along the road to the effective privatisation of higher ed.
Let’s just get this into perspective.
Higher education take up is a function of demand. Therefore, spending must keep up with demand or there would be hell to pay in political terms. To say disingenuously that arguments in favour of increased spending are made by academics who stand to gain from such an increase ignores the droves at the groves.
While the demand was given a huge kick-start by Whitlam era of free university education that largely decoupled it from a class system, there’s no going back these days.
Note this well: Australia now has either the second or the third highest tertiary enrolments in the world. Part of that is a function of selling higher education as an export industry (Canada does this too and is the no. 1 enroller in the world), but still…
My point is that you can’t kill demand for tertiary ed with a stick in this country now.
For some stats see LINK
PS The current crop of cabinet members had their higher education given to them free of charge by the taxpayer, including $weetie. Ditto for one-time Whitlam acolyte, Harry Clarke.
I’ll do a budget round-up in Missing Link, too, so keeping track of goodies here would be appreciated.
Ta.
Innovation index
The Bulletin has an interesting take on the Budget, which I think is code for ‘deeply disappointed and scared of losing the election’.
Yes, good comment Antonio – thats a useful frame of reference. I just wonder if groups 1 and 2 wont be the sort to be swayed on climate change issues.
You know, having slept on it: I reckon the meta-message of this budget to the electorate – despite the OZ’s ravings – is this:
“We admit that ALP has been right about everything all along (education IS underfunded; workchoices IS unfair; skills ARE a problem; we need to think beyond the mining boom; climate change IS a problem). We are so out of ideas we have become ALP lite, overnight, and are following Rudd around like a lost puppy needing direction. So might as well take the money and vote for them.”
Is say Shanahan at the Government Gazette is confusing the terms “wedge” and “capitulation”.
Not quite, Mark: the cap on domestic fee-paying places has been lifted, but universities are not yet free to charge whatever fees they think the market will bear. That’s the next step. And until that step is taken (views?) we are not yet in a completely demand-driven higher education system. Sorry, Sir Henry.
Truth be told, we’re not even close. Many of the proposed (important qualification) changes will, in fact, put the Commonwealth Government in more of a position to dictate course offerings at universities – as a response to the demands of the economy, business, industry, national need &c – not in response to student demand. This is just continuing the trend of the past decade. And I am sure there are many who’ll see this as a good thing.
‘Proposed changes’ is an important qualification because many of the changes depend major revisions of the legislative, regulatory and reporting arrangements for universities. These are hopelessly tangled up, and some streamlining is long overdue, but it’s important to remember that all the increased complexity of these arrangements has happened at the federal level. The Government will ask the states to make a raft of legislative and other changes to implement its ‘Education for Life’ (names are so important) program. That means amendments to at least 38 separate pieces of state legislation – not counting those relating to reporting to, say, Auditors-General. How long is that going to take? and what are we likely to hear from the Government while this is going on? “Gee, we’d like to give you all that money we promised … but the states … y’know …”
It really does depend on your perspective doesn’t it. I thought Costello was Primeministerial in the way he handled the team on the 730 Report. So easy he looked like he wasn’t trying. It is a good budget and will be a creeping positive in my view.
I predicted Labor would win last time (I blame Back Pages and the fact that I admired the way Latham hated luvvies) and I was pretty wrong on that one (the resultn not the luvvies). I am banning myself from predictions or even quietly held expectations this time. It’s a contest and could go either way.
What I will say, with confidence, is that you guys are delusional like you are drugged. I think you can’t handle a good poll result. Optimism is good and, yes, results are encouraging for Labor but whatever you do, don’t place any faith in your ability to read what the greater electorate is thinking. You have proved you are simply not wired to do that.
Rudd is right about one thing, if he wins it’s 51/49.
I’ve put up a post outlining some problems and background with the childcare rebate.
[LINK]
The true surplus and note how much is being put into roads compared to rail.
Also they are maintaining the charade of calling the GST a state tax when it was set up under Commonwealth legislation,is collected by the Feds and is a commonwealth tax that has never appeared in a Costello budget as such.
From what I can see trawling all the news blogs a lot of people love it. One worrying trend is a poll on Ninemsn with a majority of voters saying they are more likely to vote for the government given this budget.
Kim, this budget is a blatant vote buying exercise and full of borrowed ideas from Labor. Heaven knows what ordinary people are going to get out of it for the future – nice universities but no one on AWAs being able to afford to go there and having to do plumbing apprenticeships. But people seem to really like it – I think the Labor Party is finished for this election. I’ve argued with you about this before and I bet I’m right. In despair….
Point taken, Guise, but no doubt that would come if they were re-elected with a Senate majority.
ACOSS unimpressed
Isn’t the Edu future fund for buildings and research *facilities* ? (test tubes, clipboards etc) – not even for paying for the doing of acutal research?
I have the privilege of teaching in a building equipped with cutting edge world class hi tech motion sensor classroom lighting rather than traditional, lame, third-world light switches. If we all sit very still and think, the lights go out. But there is not enough money to pay for more than three part-time level As to teach the ENTIRE hum & soc. sci programs.
I wonder if anyone here who is moaning about the added income into their wallets will be turning it down!
Lefty E
Actually, we are in the beginning stages of a chess game where the opening move, by virtue of succession to the ALP leadership close an election, went to Rudd. The real strategies and playing style or skills haven’t come out yet. It’s a cautious game with heaps of probing and blocking taking place, each side waiting for the other to create an opening. Howard is having to adapt somewhat, but knows a few sneaky moves, and can’t be written off simply by claiming age or tiredness, which are silly arguments, given the fact he has an ambitious team directly behind him in succession that he has to have the skill, freshness and fortitude to stave off even before he counters Rudd.
Both sides are relatively centreist, so you’d expect similarities in style, application, and a tendency to cross-purposed goals. One thing you know, Howard is a Master, and has won a few games, offsider Costello has a few tricks up his sleeve, whereas Rudd is ambitious but an unknown when we get into the nittygritty, although he obviously knows how to play the game, and has so far shown that he has studied the Master well, but has a team behind him, including Swan, which has lost a few games, and will be a worry for him when the end-game arrives.
Costello has just made a good move. The counter will be telling!
Good point James Hamilton, us political junkies are HOPELESS at picking what the greater electorate thinks.I am an optimist, and no matter how hard I try, I always seem to overestimate the political awareness/intellectual capcity of the swing voters.
The budget is predictable. I’ll get an extra 14 bucks a week, which will help, but I’d rather be confident that some day when I have kids, they will be a able to go to uni. (sigh)
“Costello announced that caps on full fee paying domestic students have been removed.”
Cripes, glad I went to uni when I did. How long until HECS is just a thing of the past?
“Good point James Hamilton, us political junkies are HOPELESS at picking what the greater electorate thinks.I am an optimist, and no matter how hard I try, I always seem to overestimate the political awareness/intellectual capcity of the swing voters.”
Since I’m not a political junkie and I am just an ordinary voter, I can say that I’m unimpressed, but then I spent the night watching the second series of the American version of The Office and I certainly haven’t read this morning’s newspapers. I’m blissfully ignorant and I’m voting Labor.
“I think the Labor Party is finished for this election. I’ve argued with you about this before and I bet I’m right.”
Nothing like a good old-fashioned defeatism from Labor supporters. Come on.
“I always seem to overestimate the political awareness/intellectual capcity of the swing voters.”
That’s a bit harsh, Carl. Calling people who might disagree with you, stupid and uninformed is so Keating. We could argue that the fact that they are swinging indicated more mental activity than we rusted on types.
I haven’t been at LP for a while. I like to learn from those I am not alligned with but in an election year it is all too polarised and draining so I left. I stuck my head in the door to see how you were all going post-budget and I was surprised at your reaction. I expected negativity, sure, but the level of contempt surprised me. It was like we had been watching a different 730 Report.
As I said, and I have not been a Costello supporter in the past, I thought he was masterful, I thought the panel thought he was masterful too. He believed in his budget and fielded comments and questions with aplomb. If there was a negative it was his smugness again. He looked like somebody who was comfortable in his skin and job and knew that he would get Howard’s job very soon.
We weren’t watch a different show of course but that’s perceptions for you. We all have to be careful of trusting our own eyes.
Costello looked like somebody who knows something we don’t vis a vis the polls. The lection is sometime off and I think Costello at least has decided being flustered is counterproductive.
Fair call James, a bit harsh. Its just a bit disheartining for me that the public has overlooked so much, but who can blame them when they see no reasonable alternative?
Its just sad that politics has degenerated into choosing the party you hate the least.
I suspect the contempt you describe comes from the accumulation of let downs. Costello is capable, sure. But he is harldy visionary. If we are so awash with money why is it that in my city, canberra, there are over 1000 children sleeping on the streets every night? Why is there so much uncertainity when it comes to health and education if the times have ‘never been better’?
But hey, we can easily cut income tax for people earning over 70 g’s, bonus. Us rusted on’s have just grown cynical James.
Carl
Here is a tip from somebody who has correctly called every election result since he first started (mid 1990s)
Mate, it ain’t the proles’ “political awareness/intellectual capacity” you’ve been over-estimating; it is the Luvvies’
Let me guess, John: you started in 1996….
Peter Martin’s view is worth a look.
I see Channel Eddie is in full Howard Cheer Squad mode on tonight’s Nightline..
I’m pretty sure Laurie Bloakes is being paid a retainer by the Libs
I wonder if this is due to the Rodent giving Messers Packer, Stokes and Murdoch free reign in the media playground ?