I can’t resist. In 1989, shortly before our now Dear Leader was ousted in a party room coup by Andrew Peacock, the Bully had a front cover with Howard’s photo and the slogan “Mr 18% – Why does he bother?” – The Libs now trail Labor by 18 points in the Newspoll 2PP. Labor up by two. Howard down to 37%, a full 12 points behind Howard as preferred PM.
Labor got a budget bounce.
So you may well ask? Why did Howard bother with his second Australia Rising speech? You can read it here in The Government Gazette Australian.
Aside from his extraordinary attack on Labor for allegedly rendering education an “almost soulless and narrow form of national economic service” (hint to Howard, just because you’re acting like an Opposition, doesn’t mean that you need to attack your own government), we’ve now got the number one issue in education – DISCIPLINE! Let’s have a moral panic on state schools! Hang on, did that before the last election, and nothing actually happened in terms of action.
Oh, and we’re engaged in a Global War for Talent! Or Global War on Talent… that one will get a bit confusing what with all the other GWOTs the government supports.
Unsurprisingly, all this guff reduces down to yet another state (and state school) bashing exercise, and a belief that if only principals could sack teachers, all would be well. In the Global War for Talent.
That’s the government all over – how to solve a problem? Support authority figures sacking workers.
from memory newspoll goes
55 61 57 59 57 59
flat lining ?
It is a massive and sustained lead. I know the arguments will be trotted out that Howard can get back in the game, but if it continues like this for much longer even the pundits will start thinking about positioning themselves to work with a new government.
Even more worrying for Howard than the 2PP figure is the preferred PM figure, which is surely unprecedented and reveals a deep seated and widespread dislike of Howard that will be difficult to shift.
And the result comes after a sustained and vicious attack on Rudd and Gillard from most of the press and the ABC.
Most of the back benchers and Liberal Party machine men will know what this means even if the commentariat choose to remain blissfully ignorant.
Australia Rising Damp speech by Johnny Howard. All because he’s done nothing for education for the last 10 years and just thought he’d try to steal a march on Rudd. Kim I’ve heard it all before from him – education traditionalist trying to ram the three cheers view of Australian history down student’s throats on top of a pastiche of votebuying bits and pieces including the hint that the $5 billion endowment fund is the tip of the iceberg. The fact that this fund really only translates into a few hundred million dollars each year for all the universities around the country and moreover does nothing for a single student is beside the board. Then after a whole lot of waffle about well-ordered classrooms and children achieving their true potential he winds up pointing out that he means to offer choice in education – for the rich. And he has the hide to accuse Labor education policy as beancounting? That’s rich! Thank you Ratty, you can sit down now.
It is all over for HowardCo. There will be no delayed “budget bounce”, (they are still waiting for last year’s!). It will be all downhill from now on.
The polls are just too consistent for anyone to pretend anymore. The deal has already been done by the electorate, and nobody is paying any attention to the government anymore, which is the kiss of political death.
A fantastic result (for the non Howard-huggers, currently about 60% of the voting population).
I am over the moon. Times, they are a changing.
Bye bye, John. Enjoy irrelevancy. And some historical reckoning and accountability.
And, of course, a big hand for all the ‘professional’ political pundits, particularly at NewsCorp, for their balanced and accurate reporting and analysis of the changes in the Australian body politic. NOT.
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Here’s the OZ leader on the story.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21732808-1702,00.html
Here’s Lefty E’s guide to it:
Sentence 1: Yada yada, a majority liked the budget – and wait, cos there’s more detail next sentence on this important question of how much everyone likes the budget.
Sentence 2: Look, 60% liked the budget, thats a lot (…how long can we avoid the actual point here)
Sentence 3: One more sentence at least! Only 12 % disliked the budget masterclass (ie losers with no mates)
Sentence 4: “despite this positive response” the slow burn bounce maybe slower than expected. 59 ALP -41 LNP.
S 5: State obvious. Kids not paying attention in masterclass.
S6: But thats ok, the ALP vote only improved “slightly”. By 2%.
S7: thats 2% 2PP, and primary. Coalition only down 1%.
S8: Oh, alright, Rudd’s also up 3 as preferred. The Immortal Felchee down 2.
S9: Galaxy only has it 57-43. And they’re probably more accurate, so shut up.
Howard should do himself a favour and ban the word productivity from the co-alition vocabulary. Today hardly any Australian knows what it means. If he keeps talking about it eventually everyone will not only know what it is and why its important, but also that its been trending towards zero for years.
Why would you bring Menzies up on in a speach about the future? It makes you seem even more in the past.
Does he really want to invite Rudd to spend the election talking to Australian researchers engaged in world class work overseas who had to leave because the could not get the funding they needed under the Howard government?
A speach on the future which is all about defending the government’s track record on an issue Rudd put on the agenda. Two speaches on the future of Australia and he is yet to include an original theme of his own. Its a bit hard for Howard to look like he has a vision for the future when all he does is articulate an alternative versions of Rudd’s plan.
Heh!
Lefty E, don’t supposed the leader mentioned that 18 points behind in the 2pp thing, did it?
Actually, that’s just a feed from the AAP. Shanahan etc. must still be waiting for their talking points to be faxed through. Normally they have the columns up by now.
Julie Bishop on Lateline sounded like a complete goose.
Yes, LeftyE I especially love the bit that says ‘only 59 per cent of voters supported Labor on a two-party preferred basis, compared to a whopping 41 per cent for the coalition’.
The National People’s Daily headed the Newspoll figures “Voters still backing Labor”. Maybe some subbie reckoned that “Voters just don’t get it” was pushing it even by Murdoch standards…
I can just see the election day editorial: “You’re all f*cking stupid”.
Yes Kim, there’s seems to be an small oversight on the gap-blowing-out-to-one-fifth-of-all-voters question.
Ok, I think we can ask now: which of that merry crew of HFGs at the Gazette will be first to jump ship?
Go on, stick your Gombeen hands up – who really wants to punt all on the Immortal felchee?
Or do one of you Pravdiks want to take out some insurance on decent feed from a potential labor government?
My money’s on Pricey.
‘Its a bit hard for Howard to look like he has a vision for the future when all he does is articulate an alternative versions of Rudd’s plan’
Yes Swio, maybe that’s why 60% of people asked in Newspoll liked the budget.
2008 : Wishlist…..
Ex-(unelected) President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and ex-PM, John Howard, both ‘cricket tragics’, are today, just mucking around.
Speaking of the old times and throwing the balls around…..
Yes I’ve been waiting for JUST ONE of the usual commentariat to post one provocative message, JUST ONE, so I can spam it up with my derision. I would suggest I’m not the only one judging by most of the comments on the blogs (90% of which are harshly critical of howard)
Its just not quite so entertaining when one of these buffoons isn’t prepared to do the usual, throwing their credibility to the wind and attempting to call a spade a shovel.
ah well, time to go to bed i guess! sweet dreams of an impending labor victory
Schoolkid Soothsayers, today in Benelong:
“Good-bye Mis-tah How-ard”
Mark
Spot-on again, as were your recent pieces on how disconnected from reality the Canberra press gallery have been getting lately.
I wanted to touch on this – something strange and unprecedented has happened over the last few months. The Murdoch papers have never sounded as apoplectic and shrill about Rudd as they have recently. And the amount of uncritical reporting of Gov actions has reached flood proportions. And yet it’s clearly not working like it used to. What’s happened? Has the bubble of unreality become so big that the commentariat can’t sense how out of touch they are on some issues (eg WorkChoices, legend of ‘Howard genius’)?
If anyone wanted any further proof of just how surreal the News Ltd bias has become, see the reporting of the Galaxy Poll today…or in some cases, non-reporting. See the website of the Oz today, and front page of the print copy: not one mention. OK so the recent Newspoll has just broken, but before that, not a single mention that I could see. This, after several weeks of reporting almost every twitch and turn of Howard, every so-called parliamentary misstep of Rudd, of blasting Gillard’s IR comments, of building a grand narrative that could only lead to one end: a poll setback for Labor. And it hasn’t happened. So we get the first front page in weeks not to mention Howard or Rudd in the context of IR. And no running of some mining executive or ex-Labor pollster’s off-the-cuff remarks.
Contrast this with the tabloids today – they at least reported the Galaxy poll. But the tone is one of disbelief, almost mild petulance: ie how, after all the money Howard dished out in the ‘masterclass’ budget, could the people not accept its brilliance? This, after it was so ‘well-received’. Well-received…inside the bubble maybe. When has a mainstream paper been so edgy about the people’s political choice.
Is that why we’re taking in hairdressers as sponsored migrants? Just asking.
Oh Heaven’s above Dennis Shanahan what’s the matter? Your ball won’t bounce? Oh dear! Now, now there’s still time for your darling Ratty to win the race at the end of the year – oh but dear he has plenty of time it’s not even June yet! Come on now go to sleep – stop sobbing there’s a good boy, there there, I know I’ll sing you a song….
Masterclass is in inverted commas now, is it, Denny boy?
I reckon they should put Oz pundits on a pay for performance basis? Tie their salary to the polls.
So we’ve got to wait a month for the bounce now? Honeymoon over, blah blah blah.
No comments facility on the Shanahan piece, I note.
And the The National People’s Daily’s Editorial is a doozy.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21730264-7583,00.html
Swio: weren’t you listening to the budget reply? Kruddy gave a pretty good explanation of productivity – and pointed out that productivity growth was trending down…
heheh matt price blog is well..priceless
all the oz could come up with is:
oh dear
I was over the moon when Rudd introduced productivity so effectively into his budget reply.
The point I was trying to make is that Howard should be trying to shut that debate down, not forcing voters to understand productivity by making it central to his own speeches.
Productivity is much too complicated an issue for Rudd to get the point across to the whole electorate in a single speech (as good as it was). There will need to be a long sustained debate about the issue for voters to become aware of it and realise the implications. They have started early which bodes well.
Shanahan = tool.
You know, I think Ive ‘wedged’ him with that sledging masterclass!
Brilliant! That will turn it around for you John, frighten people in marginal electorates with withholding their tax money to their schools.
Sheeeit. That’s dumber than a two-day old turd. Has Arthur Sinodinis has been hitting Zoloft?
Sir Henry, Arthur Sinodinis quietly resigned from being Howard’s advisor some time before Rudd ascended to the leadership. There was a profile on him in the SMH Good Weekend. He is now working somewhere in the private sector. You don’t suppose that is why Ratty has been in a tailspin ever since? Actually I’ve been wondering about that…
Arthur’s left, Sir Henry.
Maybe thats why Ratty couldnt organise a Liberal party ladies auxillary chook raffle these days.
Me too.
I think the new theory is that punters on the average wage will just be delighted beyond belief when they get their first fortnightly pay packet with AN EXTRA $28 IN IT!
But hang on, won’t the tax cuts take effect in July?
So perhaps it’s just soothsaying after all.
I predict that if the polls are still showing the same trend in a month’s time, we’ll get the paypacket in July hypothesis. If that fails, they might concede Ratty’s probably done for.
Oh God, now we’ve all got to wait until bloody July! Ho hum – wake me up when it hits us.
Yeah, we’re in such a need of skilled workers, that my wife has had to remain in Australia on a spouse visa, instead of getting residency. A medical science degree and a biomedical engineering degree just didn’t indicate enough skill. Hairdressers are far more useful for a high tech, knowledge-driven economy. If only she’d been a telephone sanitiser!
Kim and Everyone:
It is indeed a War On Talent!
Despite the spin, myth and bare-faced lies, it is Howard and his huggers who have dominated the direction of education and vocational training in Australia for the past decade ….. and haven’t they just made a real balls-up of it!!
Yes, there have been quite a few airy-fairy trendy-lefties who have stuffed things up for their students at the classroom level but they were not the ones who lacked vision, commitment and plain old-fashioned leadership; they were not the ones who allowed crises to happen and only then tried to manage them. Yes, the specifics and the fine details are handled at a state and territory level but it is at the federal level that the overall direction is set. Mouthing off empty slogans – such as that about putting grammar back into English – is not leadership, it’s only noise.
For example, it has been obvious for decades that Asian languages would become vital for Australian business. Yet, apart from a few dollars chucked at universities, the Howard government has done absolutely nothing to encourage the learning of these languages – in fact, they have discouraged their learning and use.
And the situation for science is even worse.
That’s right, Sir Henry and it’s not all. It was all in the budget. Take a look at Julie’s press release.
For some of these she approached the states, they told her it was a crap idea and to piss off, so she mandates it anyway and then goes on Lateline spruiking about what we are doing in cooperation with the states.
Please note the requirement for external examinations which we in Qld will see as a return to the dark ages.
Comments from Aussie Bob at Surfdom and Christopher Shiel at Troppo.
More hysterical bullshit media agendas.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1922945.htm
You know, OZ media – you are looking like hapless clowns reporting any old rubbish some self-interested industry body comes up with. tell em to f*ck off when they come whinging with low rent guff like this.
Shock news p- workers intereted in maintaining living standards. Wages may rise. Or not. What a f’n scoop.
No no Lefty! Let them do it as much as they want! Obvioulsy is working!
The Howard/Bishop solution to the problem of bullying in schools – we’re going to stand over the State Governments and school principles until they do what we bloody well want and fix the problem!
But youse had all worked that out already, hadn’t youse.
The subtext in Howard’s version of the education revolution is, as always, those bad evil teachers and their unions, holding back our kids with whacko curricula, and now, standing back while they are bullied in the playground.
The message is that the teachers and their unions (and state governments) are responsible for all the identifiable problems in state schools, not ten years of gross under-funding and relentless and destructive criticism (Kevin Donnelly wrote that speech last night, yes?).
After watching the splendid docu-drama Bastard Boys on the ABC, where the real, though shadowy, villain was the Howard Government, paying out millions of taxpayers funds to sack unionised workers from the docks, it would appear the teachers and their unions are the next target in Howards unending war on Australian society.
Perhaps this is his genius 2007 election strategy, crafted to give him that elusive poll bounce. Whip up fear and loathing about our kids education, find an obvious target to blame and demonise them through the usual media channels, shrug off any responsibility for any past failings, split the electorate and divide families, manufacture rolling confrontations with the teachers unions, and hey presto, another brilliant rabbit out of the hat for cunning old Howard.
I feel kinda dirty, but I read the Government Gazette front to back today.
Mmmmm, so satisfying to see them encounter their own irrelevance in the face of the Ruddernaut. You should see the feral ALP-bashing exercises in every article from pages 1 to 4. And the writhing editorial contortions over kids not paying attention in masterclass.
They’re really getting desperate. Gee, its almost as if the felcher-at-large’s own legacy is at stake.
Ah, the twilight of the media elites. So enjoyable. Keep it coming, HFGs!
Methinks this is what is generally referred to by wingnuts as ‘the elites disappearing up their own arses’. Sure, it drives us fellow travellers bonkers, but it really pisses off the masses even more.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls:
SBS “Insight” is looking for participants for their upcoming program on full-fee-payng education and its effects. Skitchem, skitchem! Go get ‘em! [D*mn! Lost the link to their website .... ]
Now exactly where in his many statements on education and training did Mr Howard or any of his mob say anything about how wrong it was to have the corporate world bludge on Australian families for the cost of providing education and training? Yes, firms do pay taxes but that’s no excuse for them getting a free ride on the backs of the battlers.
Without picking any one of the many previous comments there are a few themes I’d like to comment on.
There are some media commentators I don’t (i.e. “won’t”) read or listen to because they stray well beyond reporting into highly proactive advocacy for one side or the other (mainly Coalition on my count), and it’s a much bleaker read of the op-ed landscape due to this. Gone is much of the nuanced analysis of the policy positions and announcements, and like others I DO believe that SOME of the “Commentariat” are detached from the broader public opinion.
But are we serving any audience by “labeling” in the same sense that the Coalition has effectively “labeled” target groups? How many are offended by “Doctor’s Wives”, “Howard’s Battlers” etc.! I think those who label fall into the same trap as those they try and group in order to criticise. As others have pointed out, there are (way too) few who continue to provide good analysis and lumping them together does a disservice.
I also won’t write off the coalition as “dead” until much closer to the Election — no matter of my personal opinion or preference — as they have very deep pockets, a very good strategic sense, and no-one out-waits and out-blinks their opponent better than the Prime Minister. Witness his “tweak” on Workchoices immediately after (in my opinion) the Labor party left their flank exposed on IR/Employment during their conference. He did the same to Mark Latham on Tasmanian forestry at the last election.
I really expect we’re going to see another round of obscene pork-barreling when the election proper in called, and only then, and the few weeks after, will we really be able to judge the stickiness of the current polls.
Grace Pettigrew wrote:
Don’t give them any ideas Grace, that sounds far more convincing than anything the Liberal morons have dredged up all year!
Although, in a way, I hope they try it. There is nothing more ropeable than a mum attacked for her education decisions – which is effectively what the strategy layed out above will do. This is part of the reason why nobody is listening to the endless attacks on teachers unions etc. Listen to the echo chamber that is Andrew Nortons blog (or the fools at Catallaxy) who all think that teachers unions are the cause of all evil in the western world. It’s a dead end, if you’ve got kids, you’ve met a teacher and most of them don’t have horns growing out of their heads.
The biggest problem the Liberals have right now is that Karl Rove is heavily occupied fighting rear guard actions in his own country, and can no longer supply an endless series of gutter wedges to keep our local version of his morally bankrupt neo-cons in power. Think of all the us-centric shite that has kept us occupied for the last ten years (gay marriage! values education! they hates us for our freedoms!). If Karl Rove dropped off the face of the planet, it would be a much happier place.
Yes, I completely forgot. Arthur has left. Literally, a smart move.
The Rodent is reverting to type by relying on witchburning and trial by ordeal. He is most prbably being advised by Julie Bishop, who is a visitor from another planet (like Michael Brissenden – can’t they get past the letter `B’ for surnames?). We can tell, it’s the non-blinking eyeballs that give them away. Julie is a time-traveller and can’t tell the difference between 1640 and 2007. As yet.
The Rodent’s desperate, squeaky battle cry would be pathetic if I felt any compassion, which I don’t. Schadenfreude, glee, a warm inner glow… Good to see after all these years.
Incidentally, even the morons among us, must realise that it is the state governments that actually administer schools and they will resent Thug Federalism Johnny is talking up. he is supposed to be so smart politically, as Denny Boy and Akkers have been telling us. Why is he doing this?
Plop. Early Kooka overboard!
Premature schadenfreude, Sir Henry? Hey, it’s a common problem.
Talk to your marginal-seat campaigning consultant today… I would.
</Pele>
If the poll tide keeps running, the Sun King will tell his minions to pull their heads in. He’ll still want them to bludgeon Labor for a more business-friendly IR policy (because The Oz’s role is to set the agenda for the rest of the media). But he’ll tell them to eat humble pie and start running positive stories about Rudd and to lay off Gillard.
Howard discovering ’soul’ in education is choice. Tell asylum seekers, corporatised universities, and workers dependent on awards that he has ’soul’
E! Fiasco! Schadenfreude is not problem for me. I like very much the enjoyment. Quemo especÃfico assento de marginesso do you hab in mente, amigo? Kingston (SA)? Bonner (Qld)? Greenway (NSW)? Wakefield (SA)? Braddon (Tas)?
No John, THe Joke’s on YOU
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,21738621-5005361,00.html
But did it ever really work? Maybe we’re too inclined to say that because the media gave Howard a saloon passage and he got re-elected, therefore voters must have been influenced by the media. I suspect people’s voting intentions reflect all sorts of influences of which media reports are but one … and that even to the extent that it’s a factor, it doesn’t always work the way the spin merchants think it will.
Case in point: the interview with Sinodinos referred to ^ explained how Howard and his staff spend the bulk of every parliamentary sitting day working out how to get into the media. For years this may have been a great tactic, now suddenly it’s counter-productive because people can’t stand the sight and sound of the man any longer. Why has this happened now, and not 5 years ago? Who knows, but thank god there’s till some unpredictability in politics.
This is an excellent point, Ken. Because the situation is dynamic – it worked once but it may not more and probably for the reasons you suggest – it is very hard to construct a meaningful strategy if old and tried methodology founders on the rocks of sullen ingratitude. The content does not matter, strangely enough, it’s the form. Suddenly it is irrelevant. Now I understand the thinking behind Kevvie’s quiet and studious manner in parliament, rearranging paper clips while the Pee Em, the Monk and the $mirker fulminate above.
And we won’t get much from the commentariat in the organs of the MSM, esp. print. Becuase this makes them and what they actually say irrelevant also.
I think Liberal thinking reminds me of General Arthur Percival at Singapore, the Maginot Line and General Westmoreland’s strategic thinking in Vietnam.
Oh, oh, and Robert McNamarra has just appeared on the idiot box, ca. 1962, drawing diagrams on a blackboard. How apposite.
1. LABOR 1.92
2. COALITION 1.85
Sir Henry, A well known Northern Territory gaming establishment offers these juicy odds. Will you be having a little lash, or is it time to apply the poultice?
Why do I suddenly get visions of a Vinny Jones-esque character nestling the pointy end of a .22 into the back of Howard’s knee?
“So you think this is funny?”
Jonathan:
Wise words.
[My use of the term "battlers" in the post before yours was not labelling but irony].
Grace Pettigrew:
How true ….. although efforts to shred the failed whacko curricula and replace them with ones based on solid research and teachers’ classroom experience are hindered and set back every time the would-be King Of Australia and his courtiers ruminate of “ejucashun”. If they would just keep their mouths shut, reform and modernization would happen naturally and with very little fuss.
SirHenryCasingbroke:
How apt ….. but note Jonathan’s warning.
Hmmm, someone is laying off or the Rodent is going to win. Sportsbet now shows reverse of a month ago, with Labor 1.95 to Coalition 1.80; Centrebet same, Lab 1.92, Coalition 1.85 (Budget did sfa to the odds); Sportingbet still gives us Lab 1.80, Coalition 1.95.
Before I put the Casingbroke Estate on this (and let us not mention anything to Lady Fiona) we need for the respective blowouts to go over $2. We then have a cert. We’d need a couple of mil, EC. Anything salted away in the mattress old boy?
I was driving around Denistone yesterday afternoon, and I’d just seen the article in the Australian, and a whole host of ambulances went screaming by, and all I could think was some poor P&C member had been bored to death by another of those the “Australian Rising” speech.
Mind you the interview on Lateline was funnier even, I love how Bishop can attack the AEC for their ideal of “instilling a sense of wonder,” yet it is sage wisdom when it comes out of the mouth of the PM. Tony Jones really hammered how an the hypocrisy of Howard’s critique of Labour’s education policy as “almost soulless and [a] narrow form of national economic service.â€? I don’t know whether the ARC veto man, P.P. McGuiness that you appointed seem to care much about this “sense of wonder.”
TONY JONES: Help us out here Julie Bishop, is the ultimate purpose of education to prepare students for the work place, or is it also to instil a sense of wonder about ideas?
JULIE BISHOP: It’s clearly a combination. As I said earlier, education is the fundamental, it’s the essential, it’s the enduring building block for a cohesive society -
TONY JONES: But you’re comfortable are you, with that term, ‘a sense of wonder’?
JULIE BISHOP: Well I know where you’re coming from with that terminology and, of course, education must fire students’ imagination. They must have the capacity to learn, they must be taught to learn over their life time and they must develop a love of learning.
TONY JONES: Here’s where I’m coming from, because our viewers may not know. I use the expression ’sense of wonder’ particularly because the Prime Minister is attacking the Australian Education Union for using it. He suggests that they, according to him, suggest that literacy and numeracy tests can’t assess a child’s sense of wonder, something you obviously believe should be part of the education system?
Thanks for that, Stephen. I couldn’t bear to watch Bishop. I’m sure there are thought control rays emanating from those alien eyes.
Check out these magic lines from Combet tonight, re mining co’s:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1924034.htm
“Will they respect the right of employees individually to freely choose to be a member of a union and to be represented by a union, and secondly will they respect the right of employees to collectively bargain if the majority of them want it,” he said.
“I think if they can come to grips with those two important rights for employees I think there’s every chance of coming up with a really good industrial relations system.
“It’s just not surprising that companies like Rio Tinto have objected to the Labor Party’s industrial relations policy when that policy respects international human rights.”
As I just said on another post, Lefty E:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/05/16/of-manifestos-and-manifestists-or-has-the-future-a-left/
Combet was superb.
Yes, Im starting to feel that the reason ALP got a bounce “despite the budget” was probably because of Howard’s IR “backdown”.
His faux “backflip” on WC was effectively an admission of how rubbish the system is, and, brilliantly, he also lost the gloss of committment to reform in the same fell swoop. Doh!
And Im big enough to admit Im starting to revise my opinion that some exceptions for over 100k workers are necessary. IR really is the government’s problem patch – when it comes to actual voters. Only the Gazette/commentariat see it as an ALP weak suit.
And who’s listening to those losers?
Oh look – more feral price hike sky-is-falling rubbish: http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/labor-hit-by-more-pricehike-fears/2007/05/15/1178995158680.html
What is all this? Im thinking it might be business realising Rudd’s a solid show, and trying to knock the edges of the policy – rather than simply trying to win it for Howard.
I suspect that’s right, Lefty E.
I’ve got a question for people here which I hope will draw responses even though this thread is getting down the list.
3 years ago I was far less interested and informed with respect to the reporting by the mainstream media of the political issues of the time.
Now I think I am more aware thanks mainly to the comments and links re MSM from this site.
Now I think its fair to say that there is a strong core of perceptive posters here who regard the current reporting by the MSM to be abyssmal and biased.
Fair observation?
So my question is, what was it like this time 3 years ago?
And for the rest of the run-up to the election?
Was the MSM operating in the same or different mode compared to now?
Stronger or weaker?
And the ramifications therof?
In your opinions.
Any takers?
Ta.
Well, I think that it was operating in the same mode in a sense, hannah – viz. one narrative all about the horse race. Except last time they all wrote “Latham has Howard rattled and is a political genius” stories for about 3 or 4 months when he was ahead in the polls, then flipped the switch into reverse. So the “Howard as a political genius” crud was very much a reaction to their own previous spin on Latham. Now they’re stuck with it, I think, for fear of the Latham narrative coming back to haunt them. So it was all crap back then too, but the sort of crap it was has defined the really crappy crap it is now!
If that makes sense…
Agree Mark, Combet was superb last night on Lateline, articulating the problem with Howards WC laws in the same way as Keating did recently. Its about human rights stupid. At present it is illegal for people to freely associate to talk about their work conditions. Nowhere else in the western world, including the USA, are there laws this draconian. With Combet now in the game, maybe Australian voters will realise what has been done in their name.
Some of the mystery of the seeming inability of Howard being unable to make headway may be dispelled by the following news this morning:
It’s simple really, the IR legislation has been an eyeopener.
Furthermore, $weetie rattling on how we have never had it so good is neutralised by the fact that some people are going to be worse off by Work Choices (very very cynical nomenclature). The fact that the economy appears to be powering on pisses off punters who realise they are going to miss out on the gravy train.
In other words, the economy is not enough, it’s the voters’ wallets, stupid.
Exactly Sir Henry, and to them what goes into their wallet is the economy.
I don’t think the way voters determine their vote has changed much with these latest poll results. It will always be the hip pocket nerve rather than Iraq or AWB, but essentially Howard’s argument has now boiled down to “take a pay cut” to give more people jobs. Imo as soon as the argument was reduced to this then the issue was a loser for Howard no mater what spin he put on it.
Howard has spent eleven years appealing to people’s “hip pocket nerve” to get him elected and to help them overlook various scandals and misjudgemnets. Now he essentially goes the other way and asks these people to take a hit for the “good of the ecnomy”. It runs counter to the way he has won in the past.
It has only taken the media around eighteen months to finally get their head around this. Peter Hartcher on his new blog yeaterday came as close as any of them have, to admitting he may have been underestimating the publics reaction to “workchoices”. I think the government spinmakers have done a great job on the media, but as most advertisers will tell you, all the best advertising in the world will not make a bad product good.
Steve Lewis in the Australian also appears to be finally recognising that the polls are bad for the government and that the government might lose. The rest of the rag is full of the usual hysterical nonsense, though.
Friends! Friends! Listen to me! I have read the words of Dear Treasurer in this morning’s Beluchisatn Blatherer and the scales have been lifted from my eyes:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21739647-601,00.html
Rudd’s going to nationalise the banks I tell you! Don’t say you weren’t warned!
Thanks Kim.
Makes sense to me.
It also makes sense of comments that I have read about the disbelief of journos about Rudd’s seemingly never ending honeymoon and their apparent fear of breaking away from the conforming pack.
Perhaps this development [see link] has significance in the latter respect.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/newsblog/archives/peter_hartcher/013328.html
Particularly interesting with Hartcher’s ‘debut’ is the willingness of his blog commenters to encourage him to take further steps out into the world of journalistic independence.
Almost like loving parents encouraging the toddler on its first tentative steps out of its safety zone.
And oz politics has a link to an article by Peter Martin that dares to mention the productivity issue in a manner which contradictsof the all-powerful economic credentials of the Coalition.
Are they ‘turning’?
Yes, if:
1. The “unions are back” scare campaign gets no voter traction, and merely reinforces the perception of unfair IR laws (now stupidly admitted by the government)
and
2. Voters see IR as a prime economic issue – which of course it is for PAYE workers
then … what precisely is Howard going to stage a record poll comeback on? This is his strong suit.
Dare I suggest there’s a strong possibility that he’s rooted.
I think they have to turn soon Hannah – or they’re going to look like total mugs. Its a safe money game, hunting with da op-ed pack, and our man’s looking shaky as hell.
Point is – people wont look a mug backing Rudd now, even if he does end up losing.
The real thing to watch is not the irrelevant HFG commentariat jumping ship – its the bevy of bureaucrats, industry body figures, senior military, Costello backbenchers and public servants with an axe to grind against this government.
Once these cats start to break ranks there’s going to be shitstorm of dirt for Howard to deal with. He’s made more than a fwe enemies who’ve been intimidated into silence.
I agree lefty, I think they are rooted so to speak.
The voters might not put their concerns about their pay packets under the headling of “economic management”, but where they do put it is ahead of the wider issue of the economy which is hardly a surprise. If you accept that this is the case, then it undercuts nearly all the arguments being put by the “press gang”.
Thats not to say that there are not older people out there who are concerned for their childrens and grandchildrens future working lives under this sort of legislation either. If you have children geting close to joining the workforce then you couldn’t help but worry about this sort of legislation.
Brisbane Times is reporting another loss to the team.
The federal director of the National Party, Andrew Hall, has resigned to take a corporate job in Sydney just months before the federal election. Mr Hall is one of the Nationals’ key campaign strategists. Brad Henderson, the party’s Queensland director, will replace him. – Phillip Coorey
Okay, this proves it. Jeanette, have Jeeves pack the trunk.
1. LABOR 1.85
2. COALITION 1.92
This is a total reverse of the odds since yesterday.