It’s been hard to know what to make of Russia’s increasingly aggro attitude about the possibility of independence for Kosovo, and the US building missile defence facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic.
To cut a long story short, the missile defence system the USA is building might just, if it’s really, really lucky, shoot down a North Korean missile (you know, the ones that they’re going to get rid of after being bribed a tiny fraction of what the missile defence system will cost). One. Maybe two if everybody crossed their fingers. It represents no threat whatsoever to Russia’s still-enormous nuclear strike force. But the Kremlin still isn’t happy. One might have thought that it was that they just didn’t want American military bases in places that were part of the Warsaw pact, or that they were worried that some time in the more distant future the Yanks would build missile defence that actually worked.
However, former chess champion and now political dissident Garry Kasparov had a rather plausible explanation as part of a fascinating interview on Lateline last night:
TONY JONES: You’ve often said that one of the greatest assets of a chess player is the ability to see the whole board. And you’ve made the point that the United States at the present moment is so fixated on the disaster that its created in Iraq that it is not seeing the whole board. It’s ignoring what’s happening in Russia. Is that generally the case throughout the world?
GARRY KASPAROV: It’s even worse. Just recently Condoleezza Rice was here a couple of days ago in Moscow and there are statements after seeing Putin and other top officials was quite simple, that United States, she said, would ignore Russian opinion on missiles in Europe, missile defence system and on Kosovo, while the United States would not interfere in Russian domestic affairs at the time of the election. Basically she said the way Russians select their government is their own business.
So that’s a trade, that’s a deal. That’s what Putin wanted. He creates an illusion of the Cold War. He puts pressure on America and on Europe and he expects them to give him concessions on domestic politics. And at the time when Europe is raising its voice, Angela Merkel, is making very strong statements trying to corner Putin with his oppressive domestic politics. The United States walks away, which it’s probably the worst thing, because the double standards that’s the worst promotion of democracy. If America is saying about its attempts to build up democracy in Iraq, how can they sacrifice the concept of democracy in Russia?
The question remains for the outside world: how should a cashed-up but increasingly totalitarian Russia be handled?
By respecting Russian identity and recognising Russia’s legitimate interests.
Don’t forget that Russia still has sufficient nukes to end the world, so we’re not talking about Iran or North Korea.
To start with, Russia isn’t totalitarian. Russia is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, populist authoritarian.
Putin, like doubtless his designated successor, derives his power from two important sources.
The first is his ability to voice and to represent himself as an able champion of Russian aspirations both domestic and foreign. In a fair election, and Russia is unlikely to have a fair election, 75% of Russians would vote for Putin. But that’s not enough for Putin and the vast majority of Russians accept Putin’s illiberal undermining of Russian human and civil rights. People like Kasparov are ineffectual pinpricks. But Putin can’t tolerate them and the Russian people don’t care.
The second is Russia’s vice-like grip on a huge proportion of the world’s oil economy. Under Putin Russia has risen from the status of financial basket-case to the possessor of the third-largest financial reserves in the world. Kleptocratic oligarchs of the Yeltsin era have been gaoled, driven into exile or bought off. Putin now wields his oil power with ruthless efficiency and unchallenged authority. At a word from Putin, much of Europe will freeze in the dark.
The Russian people enjoy that sense of puissance. That enjoyment is only magnified by an outraged sense of national dignity provoked by such actions as tearing down Soviet-era Estonian war memorials. Imagine the reaction in Australia were the Turkish government to tear down ANZAC Cove. Moreover, this torrent of oil money is making life in Russia more comfortable and more abundant for ordinary Russians than life has ever been.
Eventually, Russians’ rising expectations will provoke demands for civil rights. These demands are the enemies of authoritarianism. They will arise when Russians feel comfortable in the world. The rest of the world must be prepared to play the long game. It is a return to George Kennan’s “containment”. But it will require a defter touch this time around because in the future Russians are likely to be relatively richer than the foreigners wagging their fingers at them.
east european missile killers are unlikely to be useful against north korea. but they seem well placed if you’re worried about iran. further, iran believes in it’s ideology, or the old men in charge do. kim il jung believes in cognac and pretty women- no threat there.
the usa is genuinely worried about iran, as they should be. if you came in late, see: mossadegh, savak. lots of people have cause to hate the usa, but iran will be a nuclear armed state soon, very likely. even if they don’t get a bomb, they can support clandestine attacks as well as al-qaeda. this is the area where what the cia calls ’snap-back’ is most dangerous.
for a selfstyled christian nation, the usa is strangely ignorant of the value of the ‘golden rule’.
Interesting, Katz.
Just to provide the context about how I understand Estonians to feel about that war memorial, How would Turks feel about Gallipoli if we had conquered the joint, occupied it for 50 years, exiled a not insubstantial part of the population to work camps at Woomera, forced everyone to learn English, sent a whole bunch of Australians to live in Turkey to get all the good jobs in environmentally-disastrous industries, and when they got their independence back have those ethnic Australians sit around and dream of going back to the good old days where they were lords and masters?
As to Russian gas, if I were western Europe I’d be building me some LNG terminals and some storage facilities, so that Russia can’t just freeze my citizens with a phone call.
I think Katz’ first sentence really sums it up. The USA is completely distracted in Iraq and cannot really be counted on as a stabilising force in Europe. Russia resents losing the sphere of influence it had in the cold war over East Europe (and on its southern flank). All those former Warsaw Pact countries joining NATO and the EU., American bases in it’s formerly Central Asia republics. Germany’s on the rise again, and the European seat of power is moving East (see also reactions in France). Russia supplies them all with energy, it’s trying to re-assert its dominance it believes is its natural domain, American be damned. The key player here is the reaction of Germany, who generally has been accommodating to Russia over the last decade.
Katz and Robert -
It’s relevant for your hypothetical historical narratives that the war memorial in question records the sacrifice made in defeating the Nazis, and is not about the invasion and conquest of Estonia in 1939. The Estonians are of course somewhat compromised (although not as badly as, say, the Latvians or Croats) by the enthusiastic collaboration of many with the Nazi genocide project. Nonetheless, some Estonians fought with the Red Army, and all suffered greatly in the course of the conflict. Neither is the war memorial in question a skyline-dominating visual atrocity like the statues of Stalin that used to pollute capitals throughout eastern Europe, but a rather restrained and tasteful effort. That said, the statue does not stand on the scene of any particular significant event (such as Anzac Cove) and its removal to the Tallinn war cemetery looks to have been a dignified effort. No doubt the Russian response is, as Katz says, motivated by populist demagoguery.
The issue of the rights of Russian minority populations in the former Baltic states is a live one and is exploited by, dare I say it, populist politicians in those states to the considerable disadvantage of the Russians. Some of the ill-will exhibited by the Kremlin leadership towards Estonia no doubt stems from the disenfranchisement and official discrimination imposed upon innocent Russians who happen to have been born in what are now foreign countries.
Hal, you’re right, the rights of minority ethnic Russians in the Baltics is a complex issue, and I was putting a one-sided version.
There is an interesting english language alterative newspaper written by ex-pat westerners who have live in Russia called The Exile. I would avoid it if you are offended by sexism, racism, misogyny or prostitution.
They had a good article on Kasparov and the politics behind him here.
Russian Protests: The Deleted Scenes.
Short version:
* Kasparov is a neo-con tool (which is how a minor Russian player he gets in so much western media), but also has a point.
* Ordinary Russians are starting to feel a little bit tired of authoritarianism. This is actually a pretty amazing development. The disgust that Russians feel at capitalism and democracy after the Yeltsin years, and hence the popularity of Putin’s authoritarianism is not often appreciated in the west
There are two other articles which will give you alot of context on why Russia is acting the way it is and explain what Washington is up to in the region
Freedom’s Just Another Word For Fascism
How Dick Cheney Got His Cold War On
These go over some areas that you would never know about reading western press, even the more off beat left wing sources don’t really cover it. Major points:
* Russia’s oil system almost ended up in the hands of western oil companies.
* The neo-cons still see Russia as a cold war enemy and would love to get control through pink/magenta/whatever coloured revolution (What? you thought that rainbow of revolutions throughout Eastern Europe were spontaneous risings of he people? Yeah and exit polling is a standard part of Ukrainian politics.)
These views all come from the same source so treat with caution. But your only alternative at the moment is to get your news from people like the BBC’s Russia correspondent who is so clueless about the most basic facts of Russia that when he went to cover Yeltsin’s funeral he was surprised that only a hundred people showed up.
Fascinating discussion, Hal,Katz, Tyro and Robert.
Katz sez: “People like Kasparov are ineffectual pinpricks. But Putin can’t tolerate them and the Russian people don’t care.”
Yeah, Putin pulled Gazza’s passport this morning, thereby attempting to pin the dissident intellectual to the motherland.
I remember Arthur Koestler writing somewhere about the tournament that Kasparov played against Uncle Sammy’s contender, Bobby Fischer, in the “World Championship of Chess” in Reykjavik, early seventies. The Cold War at that time was in the low Kelvins. Throughout Russia chess was culturally embedded, the passionate recreational pursuit of millions. America mainly rooted for Fischer because they thought they were on a winner, and with the Vietnam War another hegemonic disaster, a spot of triumphalism was just the ticket.
Bobby won the tournament, but later lost his marbles, denounced his country and is holed up in somewher in Asia, last I heard, completely crackers.
Now, these two former cerebral rock-stars are considered pariahs by the nations that once used them for propaganda purposes. No wonder so many young people in the USA and Russia today are bionically bonded to the instant gratification offered by ipods, mobiles, and vid games, rather than being enthralled at the prospect of learning/playing the greatest one-on-one mind game of them all.
al loomi sez: “for a selfstyled christian nation, the usa is strangely ignorant of the value of the ‘golden rule’.”
Nothing strange about it at all, al. It’s because most Americans are hypocrites, religiously, a condition which facilitates doublethink, politically. Consent manufacturers and rube finessers have relied upon traits like these for yonks.
Published by Robert Merkel on 18 May 2007
In the period after Napolean Wars it was Willhelmine Germany used was the strongest counter to “the Russian Steamroller“. But a stupid dispute over Alsace Lorraine destroyed the world as we know it. So the German card really isnt an option these days.
The moral foundation of US foreign policy is really crazy now. They are promoting democracy where they should demote it (in-bred tribalistic, sectarian fundamentalist Iraq). And they are demoting democracy where they should promote it (secular, capitalistic, quasi-Christian Russia).
The geo-politics of CIS-USA policy are even more silly. The USA military-industrial complex gets its missile defence system to play with, to counter the mock threat posed by Russian nukes.
In return the CIS military-industrial complex gets the Putin dictatorship consolidated in order to rake off the profits from the energy boom and pay offs for looking the otherway when mobsters shakedown business.
Meanwhile nukes from Russias aging arsenal are left unaccounted for. Possibly to fall into the hands of terrorists looking for the ultimate follow up to 911.
What a sick joke.
Russia is the only great power capable of acting as a bulwark against the ring of “Trashcanistani” hornet nest states that gird its southern border. Someone has to keep these nuisances down.
Some Russians are certainly benefitting from the oil-fuelled economic boom. But this is mostly confined to the rich elite living in the major metropolitan areas.
Russia is in collapse according to Solzyhenitsen. It is in the midst of a long term demographic collapse unprecedented in modern states.
This has came about because Russian political, financial and cultural elites have feathered their own nest whilst wantonly wrecking national institutions that integrate the people.
Now crooks run Russia and have so since Stalin, the biggest gangster, liquidated the law. A nation cannot prosper when it is run by gangsters. In fact it becomes a source of infection to other nations, particularly in E Europe, Israel and latterly the US and US.
Therefore the correct policy towards Russia is risk-managing law-enforcement: quarantine. Hopefully the Russian nation will recover its powers of self-sustenance.
Then the Russian mobsters will finally realise one can make more money for more people by “going legit”, as Michael Corleone might say. Rather than milking it dry and then beating it to Chelsea.
I do not think Bobby F is completely crackers at all. Apart from his rabid antisemitism he has occasionally come with a fairly spot-on insight.
Robert Merkel:
Thank for this timely post.
You asked >how should a cashed-up but increasingly totalitarian Russia be handled?
For a start …..with a great deal of respect!!!
Katz:
Spot on.
al loomi:
The US putting missiles in eastern Europe is deliberately [and stupidly] provocative. If Iran was the main worry then such missiles could be placed on Diego Garcia or a few dozen other very suitable sites around the region. Have to agree with EnemyCombatant about the US [its upper echelons, not the majority of its ordinary people]; the last 7 years have shown the regime is no longer Christian but AntiChrist..
Everyone:
1.. Never never never underestimate the power of Russian national spirit.
2.. The West, including Germany, lost a golden opportunity to bring in an era of unprecendented peace and prosperity by full-on co-operation with the Russians while Gorbachev was still in power. Instead, we pandered to a tiny bunch of spiteful sore-losers and ratbags in New York and Washington. All that did was to turn potential friends into potential enemies …. quite apart from it helping the Russian kleptocracy plunder the country and handing Russia to China on a plate.
3.. Of course Kosovo is important. Russians do give a damn what happens to their Serbian brothers and sisters …. and any Serbians I have met felt likewise about the Russians.
What’s the difference between totalitarian and “populist authoritarian”? Just take out the ideology. The country is now being run by Chekists without the “moderating” influence of the politburo.
Granted, the GULAG organisation is no more. But on the other hand, like an old lag, the Russians, like a lifer out on parole, have been thoroughly insititutionalised. Anyway, GULAG was on its way out by the time Andropov rolled around. Even Beria released a few million after Uncle Joe’s demise.
I am not so sanguine about civil rights in Russia, about which Katz gets lyrical towards his rather cogent piece. I can’t see Chekists relinquishing power any time soon, particularly as they never let go of it in the first place: see Litvinenko and Felshtinksy, “Blowing up Russia - The Secret Plot to bring back KGB terror”.
“I do not think Bobby F is completely crackers at all. Apart from his rabid antisemitism he has occasionally come with a fairly spot-on insight”
Just so, Sir Henry.
While Mr. Fischer behaves in a manner that observers have interpreted as being “just a little bit different”, this does not preclude him from “occasionally coming up with a fairly spot-on insight”. From barber shops to think-tanks, humanity writ large comes up with fairly spot-on insights all the time.
Sometimes the Eureka moment is a light bulb, on others a tom-thumb, or even a double-happy. But every now and then some genius goes off like a three-penny bunger.
Nevertheless events did not turn out as Chichikov had intended they should. In the first place, he overslept himself. In the second place, on his rising and inquiring whether the britchka had been harnessed and everything got ready, he was informed that neither of those two things had been done…
“Paul Ivanovitch,� Selifan said, “the horses require shoeing.�
“Blockhead!� exclaimed Chichikov. “Why did you not tell me of that before, you damned fool? Was there not time enough for them to be shod?�
“Yes, I suppose there was,� agreed Selifan. “Also, one of the wheels is in want of a new tyre. Also, the body of the britchka is so rickety that probably it will not last more than a couple of stages.�
“Rascal!� shouted Chichikov, clenching his fists. “For these three weeks past you have been doing nothing at all; yet now, at the last moment, you come here stammering and playing the fool! You must have known of this before? Did you, or did you not, know it? Answer me at once.�
“Yes, I did know it,� replied Selifan, hanging his head.
“Then why didn’t you tell me about it?�
Selifan had no reply immediately ready, so continued to hang his head while quietly saying to himself: “See how well I have managed things! I knew what was the matter, yet I did not say.�
…
And you, Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? …
Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes—only the weird sound of your collar-bells.
Shouldn’t you be posting this at On the Road to Serfdom?
The recent cyberattack escalating from hitting just the Estonian government to the Swedish-owned bank is interesting, and is certainly looking for trouble with the EU community. Dumb move in my opinion, but in line with Putin’s neoStalinist aggression.
Ken Scott, you said
which is why I disagree with Dave Bath calling Putin a neoStalinist; a different description might be more appropriate..
Wonder if Vladimir Putin will take a leaf out of Lee Kwan-yu’s book and stay on as Senior Minister after stepping down from power. After all, his experience and insights and advice would be available immediately to the incoming President ……
Enemy Combatant - I think you’ll find Fischer’s defeated Russian opponent was Boris Spassky and not Kasparaov. Kasparaov was the youngest ever world chess champion when he beat fellow Russian Anatoly Karpov in 1985 in circumstances of some controversy (Karpov did not lose, he retired exhausted). Kasparov was then undefeated champion of the chess world until he formed a splinter chess organisation ten years later. For the chess-obsessed Russians, Kasparov has the same cachet (along with some of the same ill-will) that Muhammed Ali has for the boxing-obsessed Americans. That said, I agree with Katz’s view that politically he’s a lightweight (pun intended).
Graham Bell: I am almost tempted by the following conspiracy theory. Andropov saw that thr rusting system as it then was, was unsustainable in the long run. He got onto the idea of keeping Stalinism but without the Marxist-Leninist ideological leg-iron. He knew he’d have a problem with the Suslovites et. al. so he hatched a plan on the authoritarian model devised by Lenin and Dherzinsky, whereby the security apparatus would maintain order while the system was changed along state fascism lines, with a few hand picked private industrialists, while all the while giving the appearance of a new new economic policy. It is not an unworkable idea, look at China today. Dying from kidney and liver disease, he anointed Gorby to effect the changeover. But Gorby was a naif and fukked it up. There was an attempted coup by the Suslovites and then Boris Yeltsin got into the act, seizing his opportunity. It took some time for the Chekists to regain control and put Russia back on the Andropov plan. And, it is working. Whether Putin remains president or not, that is not the question, I am not saying he is irrelvant but there is a bigger plan underneath it all.
But Robert, as much as I empathise with the legitimate outrage of Estonians at their treatment by the Soviets, the world need not feel particularly perturbed by angry Estonians. Angry Russians, on the other hand, demand attention.
And the Estonian government, by sticking its thumb in the Russian eye, has made Russia angry.
Was this provocation necessary? I don’t know enough about Estonian politics to argue for or against the proposition that a government in trouble needed a galvanising event to stir up Estonian nationalism. Moreover, I don’t know whether and to what extent the EC were party to this decision, seeing it as a convenient time and place to shoot a cannon across the bow of Putin’s Russia.
Was anything gained by this gesture? Is it likely that anything will be gained by this gesture?
Does Estonia want to be the venue for a proxy war between Russia and the EC?
Does Estonia know what to do with its large Russian population? It’s a cinch they won’t be leaving Estonia any time soon.
Anger and outrage are useful only if you are willing and able to make good on the threats and promises provoked by them.
Neither Estonia nor the EC fit that bill in relation to Russia.
Thanks, Hal. Nothing at all gets by the 9000 series. Your model is so alert.
No worries, EC. Meanwhile I’ve done some more digging among the memory banks on the bronze soldier of Tallinn. It seems he was erected over a mass grave of Red Army lads killed in the fighting for the Baltic coast in ‘44. And he’s been moved (along with the exhumed bones of the Soviet soldiery) to a cemetery where the Wehrmacht defenders are also interred. So there really does appear to be a conscious desecration involved here.
Ken Scott:
Very interesting and plausible concepts there; I have no way of checking them but thanks all the same.
Just because five fascists regimes sent their troops into the Soviet Union 66 years ago, it doesn’t mean that the Russian leadership today would distain studying fascist systems of government and selecting what was useful for them out of that.
Katz:
Sadly, you are right about Estonia …… in Heaven’s name, why did they do it????
Open the pod-bay door, Hal.
I’m sorry, Dave. I can’t do that.
Unlike the previous iteration above, we are now all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of errorr.