From today’s Crikey email:
The Coalition’s current obsession with political advertising – demonstrated both by its “know where you stand� IR ads and Glenn Milne’s claim that Liberal strategists believe Labor is timing ad spends to influence the polls – suggests that Coalition honchos might finally be on to what’s been very plain to many observers since Rudd took the leadership. Labor has consistently avoided playing to the commentariat’s game plan and sought to communicate with the public directly – not just through ads but also through Rudd’s television appearances (whether his former gig on Sunrise or his soundbites on the commercial news programs).
In his Saturday column, Courier-Mail assistant editor Dennis Atkins previews the themes of the negative ads the Coalition plans to run during the campaign itself. Liberal sources have been telling Atkins that Howard and Costello are keen to see an advertising strategy which re-runs the Mark Latham L-plated leadership ads of 2004.
It’s interesting that the issue that they’ve picked on to focus to indicate the supposed danger of a Rudd ascendancy is one that’s already been part of an attack against the Labor leader shortly after Beazley was toppled – the Goss government’s decision not to build the Wolffdene dam when it took office in 1989.
According to Atkins, the Libs plan to paint Rudd as being responsible for South East Queensland’s water crisis.
This is a strange line of attack, for several reasons.
First, Labor’s decision not to proceed with the Wolffdene dam, which would have been located in between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, was an electoral commitment, and a highly popular one which saw Goss Labor pick up the seat of Albert quite unexpectedly. It can’t be painted as some sort of backroom bureaucratic move driven by Rudd. When running for office in 1995, the Coalition explicitly ruled out building the dam.
Secondly, as with much of their criticism of Labor, the government risks turning the focus back on their own negatives. Peter Beattie, in the first state election to have water as its central issue, wasn’t punished by the electorate for not having prepared for a drought no one knew was coming. The electorate wanted the focus to be on the future – what Labor could do here and now to ensure continuity of water supply.
And, as Howard’s polling must have been telling him just as much as Rudd’s, voters want “practical� measures not arcane blame games. And voters know that dams don’t make much sense when it doesn’t rain.
The contrast with this piece of ancient history is that the electorate knows very well indeed that Howard had been advised for some years to come up with a climate change strategy, before he was dragged reluctantly out of his sceptical posture by the force of public opinion.
Put simply, Rudd is no Mark Latham. For one thing, he won’t let government claims stand unchallenged, as Tim Gartrell and Mike Kaiser suggest Latham did with the Liberals’ interest rate ads. There’ll be a response out there as soon as the Wolffdene ads run. And if it’s convincing, it’ll leave the Liberals, as they are now, casting about wildly for another plausible negative theme.
Once again, the government appear to be coming up with new and improved ways to win the last election.
Probably didn’t pray hard enough.
Droughts, floods, famines, plagues, etc are signs that the gods are unhappy with (1) kings/pharoahs/emperors/PMs or (2) an evil populace.
Propitiatory sacrifice of the biggest offender is probably the best option.
The Liberals are trying to create the impression that Goss was putty in the hands of Rudd.
That’s bullsh*t, as Dennis Atkins would know only too well. (He was the presser.)
Back then Goss was the boss and his authority was unquestioned, as a series of Private Secretaries would also attest.
Just because additional water supplies are needed now, or should have been constructed five or even 10 years ago, doesn’t mean it was necessarily a good idea to build a dam 18 years ago.
It would be a ridiculous line to take because the tables can be turned on Howard for his Mr Magoo astigmatism on just about every policy front but especially in relation to diminshing natural resources, the problems of global warming, antipathy shown to renewable energy systems, and no planning from 1996-07 regarding water supply.
Even coalition supporters are unimpressed with Howard’s efforts so far on climate change.
Mark,
they will try everything they can. All I can say is that I hope it’s not enough.
Milne:
I hope to heaven that Labor gets in just to knock that myth out of the water!
Surely Laura Norder is the wildcard to walk on water, as an the election winning issue.
Think APEC, Sept 6-9th with threats from here to there.
Meedja in a frenzy and cut to free ads of our heroic PM.
A quick election and democracy overboard again.
I agree with Guido - the biggest problem Labor has is the evident public perception that Ratty & Co. are much better at managing the economy than they are. This may be wrong but it’s bloody well out there and every Ratty-hugging commentator is clinging to it and declaiming from it.
Rudd and Labor seems to be already out there and working on it, but surely the economy thing is going to be Ratty’s biggest game plan. The L-plate thing is just a sideshow. However I wonder if people are thinking that they are not going to vote for him despite how well he seems to manage the economy. If so, then this coming election result is going to break all the rules - wouldn’t that be great!!!!!!!!!
Yep, St Margaret but it is, another issue. I am suggesting that no one should underestimate the rodent in a cage. The body politic is now well nawed.
Anyone, who imagines Howard is not looking to the Pervez Musharraf’ bat are not watching the ball.
Can’t quite grasp which bit of Howard’s mangled economic credentials are going to be enough to give him enough momentum, St Margaret, although on past form he has tried variations of the most below at differing times in his career.
Tax Cuts from the budget. - Unlikely, big petrol price rises are upon us and the tax cuts will all be eroded before they arrive.
A one off big rise in the first home mortgage Scam - Possibility but houses quickly rise by the amount of carrot and then some.
Cutting red tape to business - will be laughed at after all the thousands of pages of GST and Workchoices he has clogged up the tax and industrial relations areas with over the past decade.
Twisting the arm of the Reserve Bank to cut Interest Rates - Possible because even the ‘independent’ Reserve Bank Board are all appointed by the Federal Government. would be breathtaking hypocrisy.
Offer a huge and off budget ‘Fistful of Dollars’ taxcut to everyone. A bribe with a catch that Howard has form on this one from when he was Treasurer in the Fraser Government. Although it was advertised on TV and billboards all major newspaper full page ads in every major city newspaper, was declared noncore and too expensive after he won the election. Don’t think he would get away with that one again.
Abolish business taxes - possibility but would feed into the anti workchoices script and opinion polling
Just on the point of an increase in the First Homebuyers scam, I did see where urgers in the Queensland Real Estate Industry were prompting Howard to increase the scam to $50 000. This is an area where Howard also has previous form and a jump would not be the surprise to the Opposition that it was the last time he did this in an election campaign.
Guido,
(on Milne’s:. . .
Because while the electorate continues to flirt with Rudd they recognise the Government’s achievements and its superiority on the core issue of managing the economy.
. . . and your . . I hope to heaven that Labor gets in just to knock that myth out of the water!)
That ain’t myth, Guido, that’s pure spin.
Tory/Nats have reduced the Federal debt, and built budget surpluses, by not spending on the infrastructure that the country needs just to stand still, let alone grow. They sock it away for their retirement - whoops, pardon moi - Future Fund, et al. I shan’t mention their GST revenue windfall. At least half of the Democrat senators fought against that morsel.
We currently have one of the highest interest rates in the world. It’s the comparison with the rest of the world that is important, not what the rates were here, back when Howard was treasurer. (Or should that be Keating? No. Interest rates were lower then, relatively, I’m sure. Wink wink.)
Actually I thought it was just managing the economy as a whole, by the sheer non effort of riding and presiding over the resources boom the way he has rather than the fistfuls of cash he has been flinging at people around election times that people think Ratty is so great at running the economy. But I have seen economics articles refuting just how good Ratty isn’t (can’t think where now) with points that we aren’t even making as much money out of the resources boom that we should so maybe Labor can attack this kind of stereotype effectively.
On the other hand, people may be sick to death of Ratty but when it comes to the point the economic outlook is so seemingly rosy that they may very well just plump for Ratty again. Depressing thought.
Howard’s political advertising bent is beginning to unravel, judging by the rodent being unable to keep a straight face in parliamentary question time when tackled on the issue.
In a very telling response, Howard showed all may be lost with a reply that the new ads were, of course, all about information (smile) and any insinuations (bigger smile) that they were political (still smiling) was quite to the contrary.
For a guy with plenty of chutzpah and discipline in front of a tv camera this was a damaging public performance.
St Margaret, I’m recalling stuff I heard on Radio National about the resources boom. The comparison was with Norway and Britain.
Norway I understand controlled the exploitation of oil by the state and had a policy of investing any profits in the currency in which they were earned. So nothing was used directly on current expenditure, only the subsequent fund earnings. Something like what Cossie is doing for universities, only more so.
I think the Brits also had a national authority which arranged for private enterprise to do the work. But like us they’ve pissed the profits up the wall.
We’ve just opened it up to private enterprise, with rake-offs through royalties, company tax, tax from the employees, the service industries, the halo effect etc. And it’s created some infrastructure.
But you could argue that the resultant higher dollar and higher wages causing skill shortages elsewhere has stuffed our manufacturing, employing about a million people, as well as stuffing our farming and a fair bit else besides.
In recent years the money has been just rolling in. Cossie talks about setting things up for the future, but it’s a con to cover his vote-buying and middle-class welfare.
There is absolutely no rationale to his universities fund, it’s just plucked out of the air.
Swan has been talking non-stop about setting us up for when the resources boom is over (actually the Beazer did too) so maybe something will get through to the meeja and the voters.
Any passing economists, please set me straight about the above.
‘Cossie talks about setting things up for the future…’. But how do you talk to the average punter about setting things up for the future Brian? No-one seems to be listening except people who actually read economics news and they are few.
Chris Uhlmann, ABC poliitcal commentator, has just stated on Radio National to standby for a government advertising blitz the likes of which has never been seen here. He said you will not be able to open a newspaper, magazine or watch commercial TV at any time without seeing government advertising of one sort or another.
Shit, please no, I’m already jack of the current round of government ads on TV, and have more than once seriously thought of damaging my set with anything that is close to hand, but the promise is even changing channels will not get you away from tax payer funded party political propaganda.
I hated it when Keating did it and hate it even more now, especially since in Howard’s 1996 election campaign he promised to get rid of it once and for all but has just raised it to a whole new stratospheric level.
Best explanation I’ve heard yet, Dave Bath. Now I get it, with all those ancient sacrifices of high priests. Time to apply the blowtorch to Ratty. If it worked before it may work again.
Pablo, yeah I noticed that unsuppressible smile (almost a loud laugh) as the PM explained how perfectly banal and non-political all those ads on New WorkChoices were.
Took me back to Clarke and Dawe doing an i/v with ex-Defence Minister Reith explaining between howls of laughter how Reith (though not now a Minister) had just done the supervisory report for the Defence Permanent Head’s bonus issue payment, almost concurrently with the Head doing a report clearing Reith of any impropriety (more gales of laughter from interviewer and interviewee).
Life does seem to be imitating art.
Speaking of the ads, has anyone else noticed the common branding that seems to be occuring? The
WorkChoicesWorkplace relations; private health insurance and superannuation changes advertisments are all using the same plain fonts and mid-blue (conviently Liberal-party-esq) colour for the ‘text’ parts of the ads.Its quite weird. They all match.
Brian, Dead Roo had a chart similar to your concept comparing economies of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Australia and the US.
Check out this con too. Peter Martin is not a fan of the future fund.
Steve - thanks for the reference my Econometrics table that shows the lie of Howard/Costello economics management. Interestingly, the figures in the post seems to have scared all the usual right-wing commenters away.
BTW: The table is at the bottom of the (long) article, and you can get directly to the table without lots of paging down with this link
Very interesting. Thanks for the links, Steve and Dave.
Peter Martin links to Norway’s Government Pension Fund where they invest the excess oil revenue. It currently stands at US$292.5 billion growing to $500b by 2009.
Not bad for a country of 4.6 million. The whole country should be able to give up work and go on holidays any day soon!
Now the Libs can’t even give money away. Brough is now in the position of having two strikes against him,with the disability agreement unsigned and now Alice Springs Indigenous communities don’t like his latest deal either.