From today’s Crikey email:
There are two perennial topics in an election year which, despite their importance, only attract occasional commentary.
One is the Senate election, and the other is whether the Nats will “all be rooned�. That question has popped up recently, raised by former Nat and Queensland Senate independent candidate James Baker.
The two are very much connected, particularly with Senator Ron Boswell’s bid for re-election in Queensland where he faces being squeezed between the Libs and a Labor vote that will rise enough to make four Coalition seats highly unlikely. Competition for the sixth seat will be fierce, with the Democrats pulling out all stops to defend Andrew Bartlett, the Greens sniffing their first chance of Queensland victory, and Family First and James Baker competing for Boswell’s base vote.
Little has been heard from the Nats this year, in contrast to last year’s conniptions over Barnaby Joyce and Julian McGauran. Mark Vaile claimed credit for road spending in the election, even if none of it would cut in til 2009. AWB has been arranged to suit the Nationals’ proclivities. But Ron Boswell, at least in the mainstream media, has kept a low profile since he defeated Baker for pre-selection.
No doubt this demonstrates that the nine staffers Boswell was revealed to have at Senate estimates are all busy beavering away on public business not on campaigning for the venerable Senator’s re-election.
The most recent Senate voting intentions poll is a survey by Roy Morgan taken over March and April. The Nats’ vote in Queensland was holding at 6%, which would put them in contention for the sixth spot, though a very low vote of 25% would suggest not much of a Liberal surplus to distribute, and would probably indicate a win for the Democrats or the Greens on Labor preferences.
The Nats may well be rooned, at least as far as their Senate leader is concerned. The lower house is another story, and deserves another story. Baker seized on the Nats’ 3% number in the latest Newspoll to pronounce Boswell dead in the water.
There are difficulties in transposing lower house polls to the Senate, and grounds for believing that the Nats’ vote would be higher in the Upper House as it’s a statewide vote, and the Coalition agreement means they only run in a minority of seats. Polls also routinely understate the Nats’ vote, for a range of sampling and respondent reasons.
But it is interesting to note that over the same period as the Morgan poll sampled, the Nats’ primary declined in Newspoll, more or less in synch with the Libs’ vote.
This would suggest that Boswell’s “strong coalitionist� message might spell his doom. With a surging Labor Senate vote and fierce competition for his seat, he might need a rabbit of his own to emerge from an Akubra somewhere.
Mark:
The ONLY thing that has kept the Nationals in Queensland afloat for this long is the presence of Senator Barnaby Joyce. Poor old Chopsticks is a nice enough fellow; he might have given his party a fighting chance by becoming our High Commissioner somewhere – but it’s too late now.
With Printgate spreading in the background votes for anyone of the coalition stamp in Queensland,will be difficult for the Tories in the Federal Election. Even our blogger from Ambit Gambit got a run in Question Time yesterday. Unfortunately one person ran the campaign for the coalition as opposed to the usual practice of two separate campaigs so who knows where it will all end.
Check out the answer about printgate on page 1792 of Hansard from yesterday, Tuesday.
To see a classic own goal by the National Party Leader see todays Hansard the setup was his seecond question, the nonsense exposed by Stephen Robertson late in Question Time today, wednesday. If that is the best the Nats can do then it will be very difficult to see how they could possibly do well in the senate.
Polls are only a daily snapshot, and Senate polls the most unreliable of those. Whether this means the Nats will be saved is another question, but considering that they usually disappear to levels below the Green levels in the run up to elections and then pop up with a clutch of seats I would suggest that their showing in Newspoll is not a true indicator of their likely success. Couple that with Newspoll’s question technique’s (‘How would you vote: Labor, Liberal, Independent, Other Party) there is a high likelihood their vote is hidden.
Of course there will be the issue of the yes/no joint ticket to confuse this, but I suspect the Coalition can still crack 3 Senators in Queensland, especially given the number of other right-wingers likely to stick their hand up and then transfer their votes (via the GVT) to the Coalition as opposed to the Greens or Democrats.
There’ll be a joint ticket in Queensland over the Liberal’s dead bodies, Stewart. Boswell’s on his own.
And I noted the under-reporting of the Nats’ vote in lower house polls.
Why “Chopsticks”, GB? Eating prowess, or something?
Mark:
Ah well then, no joint ticket: reasonable chance Boswell’s going to be fighting out with the Libs for the 6th seat…I would have thought that the Libs (with assistance from FFP and others) would get ahead of the Nats and consign Boswell to defeat, but that would also mean 3 Lib seats in Qld. I realise the Dems and Greens will be also fighting it out for the 6th seat, but I think they’ll be fighting over the same votes (with left overs from the ALP being the prize), the Dems will try and get FFP votes, but I wonder if those votes will in fact not already be tied up by the Libs…and of course what will PH & ON be doing with their pref’s again?? Apart from PH calling for Greens to be put last (the Dems will be cheered by this I’m sure) -check out http://www.paulinehanson.com.au/media-16.04.07.php – will she pref Libs or Nats?
As to the Newspoll questions – the vote for a number of minor parties have dropped off recently – about the time I would suggest that Newspoll changed its question – this would explain the discrepancy in the Greens vote, for instance of 6-9% in Morgan and Galaxy compared to 3% in Newspoll.
No, I can’t see that, Stewart.
The Libs will be struggling to get three seats, I think.
Helen:
Every politician has sectional-interest supporters; Boswell picked up some of his most enthusiastic with his passionate attacks on ‘Hansonites’ a few years back; some even spoke of him as a possible prime minister instead of the supposed “racist” [??] incumbent.
What? No.
StewartJ:
Very good point …. however I still think the Nationals in Queensland are cactus.
Today’s latest.
Today’s Morgan Poll
I’d say it will take decades for the Queensland Nats to get over the events just after the end of Question Time today. Question Time started off with Seeney trying to cajole Beattie into flying with him in the Government Jet to Gayndah for a protest meeting. With jibes about Beattie not being game to face the anti Council Amalgamation throng.
It ended with the Nats with egg all over their face, screaming and yelling like lunatics and upsetting their traditional supporters such as the RSL. If Howard thought that this rabble is going to be any help to him winning an election, he’d have changed his mind by lunch time today. It was probably the worst performance by a major party in Parliament for decades.
Read their antics here. See especially the Ministerial Statement from Page 2099 to Page 2103. Who said that State Politics is not hysterical? With friends like these Boswell would be better off retiring.
Steve:
…. not just the RSL but every family in Australia that had or has someone on the armed forces,
They’ve picked up a new nickmane ….” The Reds”…..:D what irony!