With all the debate on Australia’s approach to climate change in the last few weeks it is interesting to note how irrelevant this debate will be if Angela Merkel and Tony Blair are on their game at the G8 meeting in Heiligendamm this week.
Both Blair and Merkel have been pushing behind the scenes for some time now for a G8 agreement on setting firm greenhouse gas emmission targets. It was reassuring to wake up this morning here in Austria and to hear Blair on the radio and on message. He has pushed Bush into a position where he is willing to admit that climate change is real and that it is caused by greenhouse gas emmissions, now Blair and Merkel face the real challenge of getting the US and China to both firmly agree on a strategy to address climate change.
Unfortunately, the US missile defence shield issue has dominated headlines in the last few days and threatens to derail the whole meeting. However, this is Tony Blair’s last G8 meeting and it will be his last chance to build a consensus on one of his signature issues. Hopefully he has been at the G8 table enough times now to be able to cut through Bush and Putin’s grandstanding and achieve a worthwhile agreement.
Wow, that was some achievement by Blair. He pushed Bush into a position where Bush had to claim to care about something, but not actually do anything about it, and couldn’t stop Bush from acting like a complete asshole on the ABM issue. Man, that Blair must be some kind of genius.
(Rolls eyes and says “freakin’ moron” under breath.)
SJ - Any movement at all is a good thing. Bush is being placed in a position where he is being forced into a position where he may have to act on climate change before the end of his term. That is significant progress.
That simply isn’t true. All that’s changed is the sales pitch.
The invasion and occupation of Iraq were progrssively described as a “Crusade”, then “”Operation Infinite Justice”, then “Operation Enduring Freedom”, when at various stages he found out that the pitch wasn’t playing well with the Rubes. C.f. WMDs, regime change. The sales pitch changes, but the product remains the same old crap.
Bush’s objective is to do nothing about greenhouse, and he’ll achieve it.
There seems to be all sorts of agenda’s running. I think it’s fair to say that the US, China and India all see their national economic development as having greater priority than solving the climate change problem.
Germany, Britain and France under Sargozy all have climate change as a very high priority, if not the highest.
They all want to look like leaders, but there is a suggestion that looking like leader is Bush’s main concern.
I think the German and US positions are incompatible. Merkel wants targets and Bush wants “aspirational goals”.
Meanwhile the protesters have cranked things up a notch. There was a Rumble in Rostock on the weekend, yesterday they blocked terrestial entry to the venue, making guests enter by helicopter and journalists by sea.
Stiglitz makes it clear that he doesn’t think much of Bush, his climate change policies or the summit.
There’s more at Quiggin.
Bush is now trying to hijack the whole process and make it his own under his terms. Howard is of course aping Bush and both are iterating the word “flexibility” in their proposals. Just like the policy that cannot be named, WorkChoices, the moment the term “flexibility” is used by these people then you can bet your bottom dollar it is code for obfuscation and pig headedness.
MorningDude, I think there is little doubt that Bush wants to grab this thing, solve it his way, and then hand it back to the UN as he walks out the door. But it’s part of ramping up his legacy in terms of leadership.
Merkel has indicated she will not compromise on three things.
!. The primacy of the UN umbrella.
2. Limiting temperature rise to 2C from pre-industrial levels as a definite goal.
3. Emissions cuts of 50% relative to 1990 levels by 2050.
She also realises that we need the US, China and India on board if post-Kyoto arrangements are going to mean anything.
The UN train will go on to Bali in December, where serious post-Kyoto discussions are due to begin, with a view to concluding a plan in 2009.
Plan B is to let Bush do his thing, go into history, and pick up the pieces from there. It is more than a major distraction, however, as it feeds the Chinese and Indian predilection to amplify their own pollution before they talk turkey.
Meanwhile Quiggin has a brilliant article in the AFR today about where this leaves Australia. Briefly, up the creek without a paddle. Europe, in spite of all the vilification, is turning their GHG growth trajectory around. As a whole they’ll probably meet their 8% off 1990 by 2012 and will have the momentum to take it down a further 12% by 2020. We are still on an upward path, masked by the cut-back in tree clearing.
When we re-enter the international framework, we won’t have the Americans to hold our hand. They’ll negotiate their own re-entry. We will probably be held to 1990 minus 20%, on pain of trade sanctions, if they really cut up rough.
Good one, John, a fitting legacy, but what about us?!
I love that Guardian headline and how it starts: “I can persuade George Bush on climate change - Blair”.
Tony Blair has not been able to persuade George Bush of anything at all over the entire course of his presidency. Why are things going to change now?
Insofar as China has announced its GW objectives just prior to the G8 meeting, it will be interesting to see an EU-China link at Rostock and how it plays against the Bush smoke and mirrors.
If Bush plans any legacy at all on leaving office (and all US presidents do) he must be becoming desparate for some traction somewhere.
And now we have the Rodent supposedly teaming up with Canada to wreck some more havoc on Kyoto with his APEC meanderings. God help us.
Quiggin:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/06/07/howard-rolls-the-dice/
Mark, the Quiggin post contains his AFR article I mentioned on another thread. It’s excellent.
I’ll be astonished if the G8 comes out with a consensus statement that means anything much. The greater danger for us is that the EU will see Howard as setting up a polluters club, as suggested by the Greens. They were mightily annoyed with Robert Hill for holding a gun to their heads at 1.30 in the morning in Tokyo threatening a nice consensus deal by insisting on concessions for Australia.
We’ve gone out of our way to annoy them on trade matters ever since. We could be friendless in a couple of years time.
I did hear Philippine President Arroyo compliment Howard on his climate change leadership the other day, so he might be lucky with his APEC escapade.
It seems the spinmeisters are working overtime to get a result.
One way would be the footnote trick. Bush agrees in principle to reduce greenhouse emissions, but the quantitative goals are in an IPCC document that is footnoted.
Or this:
Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the Europen Comission has come up with another way:
It’s easy when you apply a little imagination!
Meanwhile Greenpeace and the German navy have some fun in boats, the Irish rock stars are not pleased with Merkel and Bush supports Bono for president.
They’ve done it!
I love the talkfest that is G8. Most of all I love the promises they make for the sake of good copy and re-election.
The thing with this (now predominately) baby boomer crusade is that all they really are doing to finding ways to perpetuate a system that has failed miserably. The best thing so-called Leaders of the “free” world could do at these photo ops is discuss ways to find a new economic and political system based on reason & intellect. This wont happen in the near future I know but we could start.
And yes I know there are some baby boomers that arent only interested in their own personal wealth/well being. Its just that theres so few of you and simply by your sheer numbers you still tend to set the agenda… its just not a sustainable or kind one.
G8 are as good as their word. Just ask Africa! At least Bono & Bob were there. We live in hope.
Quiggin again:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/06/08/g8-and-apec/
This looks to me a little like a compromise deal. None of the major players are tied into anything until post 2009. Bush gets to satisfy whoever it was that he promised that he would never actually set any emmission targets himself but it ties the US in somewhat to actually setting them.
Yes, I think it means Merkel got what she wanted, but they worked out a way for Bush to save face. In agreeing to “consider” her aim for a 50% cut in emissions by 2050, 50% becomes the target and they can just put a tick against it when Bush is gone. Bush gets to keep his own raound of discussions, but they will feed into the mainstream UN agenda.
The BBC’s environment analyst notes what a big deal it is, but cautions that the five other invitees, including India and China, don’t arrive until Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile Merkel says the G8 will stick to their Gleneagles pledges of increasing aid to Africa.
She always said that she wanted Heiligendamm to be about honouring all their existing promises, rather than making a lot of new ones. Apart from climate change, that is. But even that was on the Gleneagles agenda at Blair’s initiative.
I liked Putin’s offer to Bush to set up a joint US-Russia base to detect missile attacks, with the base to be established in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan.
Perhaps that is what upset Bush’s stomach.
Brian, Wonkette shares your sentiment on Bush’s stomach.
Good one, Mick!
According to Shanahan the climate deal was all a part of Howard’s master plan. [link]
Does anyone proof-read Shanahan’s columns? How on Earth could the G8 agreeing to a plan which is essentially that which Labor has been advocating, and Howard has been arguing against, be a win for Howard? He is trying to justify any plan that includes the US, India, and China as being Howard’s policy. EVERY PLAN THAT EVER EXISTED has tried to have the big emmitters signed on.
The thing is, if you are concerned about what other people are thinking of you, the chances are they’re not. That may be the situation with Howard, Australia and climate change as far as the rest of the world are concerned.
We should hope so, because many of them, and specifically the EU, will be highly irritated when they discover what we are up to.
I liked Der Spiegel’s photo gallery especially 1, 4 and 5.
In 1 there is a great contrast between black and white. And look at Putin’s eyes! They always send a shiver up my spine, but Merkel seems quite unphased.