Newspoll has been released ahead of time, perhaps because it shows a lower 2PP lead than AC Nielsen, thus enabling the commentariat at the Government Gazette not to have to get their minds around a poll which shows basically no movement towards the Coalition for a month, despite the fact that the said month has included many “Howard turning the game around” pronouncements from them.
Newspoll has a 56-44 split on the 2PP, while AC Nielsen has 57-43.
Commentary and discussion at Blogocracy, Poll Bludger, and Road to Surfdom, where Aussie Bob writes:
It’s a telling sign of the political times that Coalition cabinet ministers and backbenchers are said to be high-fiving each other and executing rebel yells in their offices and caucus rooms over the fact that they are variously only 12 (Newspoll) or 14 (Nielsen) points behind Labor in the two latest polls out today.
Update [by MB]: Mumble is spot on:
Never before in the history of opinion polls have such diabolical numbers for a political party been so spruced up as those in today’s Australian. According to Mr Shanahan, “John Howard and the Coalition have got a polling breather.” Two weeks ago an Oz editorial celebrated the return of the Master in the Galaxy poll (53 to 47) by dismissing its own recent Newspoll result (60 40) as “artificially boosted”. But now 56 to 44 means “Howard closes gap”. Be thankful for Nielsen; if we only had the Newspoll today, news-writers around the country would be regurgitating Dennis’s lead-in.
Further update: Guy Rundle in Crikey has the sanest headline - “Stagnant polls and the rise of meaningless controversy”.
One thing that drives me bonkers is how bad the reporting of the statistics is.
On many occasions, these “Australia wide” surveys involve less than 1000 people. This means the 95% confidence interval is a window of about 4% or more.
If they claim (as the Australian newspaper does), that there is a significant change in this poll from the last one, they should state what type of significance test they used and how certain they are.
It astounds me what makes the headlines of the front pages. One could think they are trying to influence people.
Posted by halberstram of sydney on Mon 18 Jun 07 at 10:26am at Blogocracy:
“Why keep the monkeys when we can have the organ-grinder ?”
I thought that’s a rather clever way of thinking about the two alternatives we get for electing the next federal government!
In one corner we have the three wise monkeys of the Howard Government. In the other corner we have the an opposition leader treated as a vagabond by the mainstream media press while still trying to keep up a professional appearance
Forget some of the boring, repetitive comment we’re getting about the polls (eg: the “honeymoon” end is nigh). This one question raised on Blogocracy provided me with enough satisfying analysis for one day
…From Justin
The Newspoll before this one overstated Labor’s primary and understated the Governments. Now that there has been a correction Dennis is able to argue that there has been a six point drop in Labor primary and a four point rise for the Government. What the figures really mean though is that nothing much has really changed in the last three weeks. The government is still heading for the mother of all hidings.
Update: Mumble is spot on:
Bang on the money Austin!
In a nutshell, the “movement” may (or may not be) real. It could be a result of sampling factors.
The same can be said for the Galaxy “poll”: no reporting of the error margins.
the adage “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” needs to be changed to “Lies, Damned Lies, and Damnable Opinion Poll Reporting”.
Pollies turn pundit:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Coalition-MPs-confident-despite-polls/2007/06/18/1182018964723.html
Yes Mark, Peter Brent is spot on as usual. You wonder why Shannahan continues to talk up the figures though. It must be quite evident by now that it is not helping the government. I think the way News LTD jumped all over that Galaxy outlier a couple of weeks ago might have more to do with Howards position as leader rather than the relative positions of the parties in the polls.
That could well be right, Kapunda.
Certainly the way the polls are being spun doesn’t help the whole “underdog effect” thing for Howard.
And comments like Jull’s quoted above aren’t helpful for them, period - reinforcing the Tony Abbott “what the hell are the electorate thinking?” line…
I find it amusing comparing the two articles headlines. You’d think they were talking about two different political contests.
Surely not!
Mumbling Mr Brent is right - even the ABC lead with the story ‘Coalition closes gap’ (online) and ‘Labor explains poor poll result’ (radio, unless I misheard the word ‘poor’)
Yep - ALP “slumps” to 56-44, coalition gets breather, closes gap, Jull confident, matter of time, poll ‘correction’ etc
Its actually insane.
“Emporer nude, warns reality checker.”
It’s interesting to have a look at all the headlines via a google search. You can really get a sense of which news outlets are spinning the results either deliberately or through laziness and which aren’t.
Here’s the ABC story:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/18/1953735.htm?section=australia
…When you consider that none of the media seem to understand anything about margins of error, and also that a 12 point deficit is considered a good news story for the Coalition, yep…
“It astounds me what makes the headlines of the front pages. One could think they are trying to influence people.”
Surely not!
So true, Mr Denmore, any suggestion of Newscorp influence in polls , questions asked in ‘push poll mode’ or ’significant ownership of Newspoll’ were ‘put to bed’, when Mr Murdoch sold all of his Fairfax interest.
Any suggestion that any party or corporation would use polls as a political tool, would be ‘undemocratic’, anyway.
Suely not, indeed sir!
Further update: Guy Rundle in Crikey has the sanest headline - “Stagnant polls and the rise of meaningless controversy”.
The Walkleys should start a new category called “The Dennis Shanahan Come in Spinner Award” for distinguished valour in turd-polishing.
One can only imagine what the little golden trophy would look like.
“One can only imagine what the little golden trophy would look like.”
Easy Mercurius, a golden figure of Howard, in power walking mode.
Also, in a dedicated new award section…. The Shenanigan.
“A shenanigan is a deceitful confidence trick, or mischief causing discomfort or annoyance” Wikipedia.
From the Shanahan “blog” where everyone in comments is laughing at him again.
Willfully delusional is the only way you can describe it.
I don’t call him Shemaham for nothing
But the way the Govt Gazette are talking this up, you’d think the LIbs have shares in News Ltd or something.
Hmm, and Matt Price is not sticking to the party line either:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21923079-601,00.html
You can really get a sense of which news outlets are spinning the results either deliberately or through laziness and which aren’t.
My favourite headline is The Australian’s Rudd Can Still Win. It’s good to know that if you have significantly more people voting for you than your opponent that you can still win an election in Australia. Heartening.
Don’t be such ninnies.
Isn’t it a frequently repeated line over the years that a major party needs 40% primary vote to even be in the race to win an election? Newspoll has had the coalition on 35% or 36% primary on 3 occasions in the last few months. Even with margin of error, this looked dire for the coalition reaching 40%.
To have it close to 40% again (combined with good polling in WA, apparently) is undoubtedly good news for the government. What’s more, as the Ozpolitics site shows, the trend is upwards on all polling.
I also find the Ozpolitic’s graph with Newspoll’s predicted Labor vote in the election year especially useful. In 2001 and 2004, there were points close to this time in the election year where Labor was also at or close to 56% TPP. More reason for the government to feel cautiously optimistic about the ground to be recovered.
There’s nothing unreasonable in the way the Oz has reported the story. If you ask me, the SMH headline “‘Out of ideas’ - PM fails to catch Labor” shows more sign of spin than Shanahan’s headline. No one expected an even pegging result. The SMH headline also suggests that the Liberals won’t improve from here on.
I reckon that if a blogger had enough time and energy he/she could set up a polling firm with the sort of sampling that seems to go on these days. Instant fame. I can see it now….big headline….
“Labor in trouble according to Larvatus poll”.
And we can have our own version of the Galaxy poll.
“John Howard has presided over record low inflation and unemployment over a long period of time, while Kevin Rudd has only been a public servant in Queensland. Who do you think would be better at handling the Australian economy?”
Getting ahead of ourselves here, one of the most interesting dramas this decade will be what happens should the coalition lose this election and the Howard party line is broken. What will be the new positions taken by surviving coalition members on global warming issues? Will we see a vastly different canvas when the Howard toadies can express their true feelings?
heh my favorite on the shanahan blog is this:
steve: it is also significant that the other guy has an even bigger primary vote…
Guy Rundle? Was he that switched-on zeitgeist-surfer behind the brilliant “Vulture” GayBC success? ROFLMAO.
When Howard goes, prepare for years of vicious brawling between the moderates and the uglies.
With any luck, the uglies will make Tony Abbott Opposition Leader for an election or two, thus guaranteeing that they have no chance of winning them…
Bit off topic, but OUr beloved ABC are now offering Parliament Question Time via Podcast - so you can either listen to, or even better - manipulate to your heart’s content
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/parliament/
What Blacklight said in his final line.
That is the real difference now, compared with the previous election polls. Labor did not enjoy a lead on the primary vote of anything like it has since Rudd took over. Latham could not get the primary over 42 for any sustained time. The 2pp might have been up for a while, but a low primary will always leave you vulnerable to an incumbency advantage in the last week or so. Ditto for Beazley.
My opinion, only a guess, is that a Labor opposition primary needs to be 45 or above. Since Rudd took over it’s been comfortably up around 48%.
If the primary is only around 40, it means 60% would rather someone else. If both parties are around 40 primary, the sitting one will win, vis 1998 and 1990.
It’s looking pretty grim for Ratty.
Full Breakdown of the Tasmanian EMRS Poll here:
Link
er, Joe2, couldn’t it be a shanahanigan instead?
I like the sound of that.
Hmm, it looks like Ratty’s plan for Faster Interubes for Farmers has turned into a classic case of pork-barrelling
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21924916-601,00.html
Geez, THe Govt Gazette is still turnig shit into gold:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21923384-1702,00.html
“A short time ago I was joined in the studio by three of Australia’s top opinion pollsters, John Stirton from ACNielsen, Galaxy’s David Briggs and Martin O’Shannessy from Newspoll.”
This is the link to an ABC, “The World Today”, discussion. Prepare yourself for what may be a new word in the poll watch lexicon…”gravity”…. beyond ‘Rudd honeymoon period’.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1954527.htm
Here is the text of the leaked email.
Note Two of the West Australian Seats are the two most Marginal for the Libs, with Stirling being smack bang in Suburbia.
And one of the other so-called Marginal Electorates is Dolly downer’s seat of Mayo.
Talk about currying Favour.
In 2001 and 2004 Labor led until the winter (though not by as much as this) then stalled and went backwards.
In 2001 this was due to Beazley’s abject failure to seize the initiative when he had Howard on the ropes earlier in the year, then compounded by Tampa and 9/11.
In 2004 the beginning of the end for Latham was his ill advised promise to bring the troops home by Christmas, which confirmed latent doubts about his judggement.
In 2007, Rudd is not Beazley. He has not presented a small target. Indeed he has taken a risk by presenting a large target on IR. Nor is he Latham. He does not get into fights with taxi drivers. He is careful and measured.
There is still time for the government to regain the lead. Fittingly, John Howard does his best work in the cold, dark months. But if the polls are unchanged in two or three months time, then get on to Centrebet and put your house on the ALP.
“Fittingly, John Howard does his best work in the cold, dark months.”
Lol!
Here I was thinking that reptiles worked better in the sunlight.
I just read the Tasmanian EMRS Poll figures as Frank pointed to them.
“Of the 1000 respondents interviewed in the current poll 41% said they had voted Liberal in 2004. Of these only 61% say they would vote Liberal if an election was held this week, whilst 24% said they would vote Labor.
In contrast 85% of those who voted Labor say they will still vote Labor and only 5% would vote for the Liberals.
Although only 8% of those surveyed said they had voted for The Greens in
September 2004, 35% of these said they would now vote Labour compared with 57% who would vote for The Greens and 6% for the Liberals.”
If a quarter of the 2004 Liberal voters turned to Labor across Australia in 2006, how many seats would they hold?
There must be special factors in Tassie, surely.
Helen Coonan on the 7.30 report has no clue about how the Intertubes work - especaly about Wireless And she stupidly claimed even normal ADSL has speed problems with the more people sharing the phone line.
Pity there is no Transcript yet.
Spiros on 18 June 2007 at 7:52 pm wrote:
“In 2007, Rudd is not Beazley. He has not presented a small target. Indeed he has taken a risk by presenting a large target on IR.”
This would seem to be the opposite of the small target strategy applied by Opposition Leader John Howard in 1995/96.
As Paul Keating reflects on Page 403 of Kim Beazley’s biography:
“Having decided three years earlier to pursue an antipodean version of Thatcher-type policy, they’d discovered that none of that worked.
So for the ‘96 election, they decided to say, “We’re just like the Labor Party! We believe in industrial relations the same as they do.”
So in this election, instead of having to make a real choice between the two of us, they sought to make it no choice”.
It would seem people then responded positively to Mr. Howard’s small-target strategy.
Now it would appear that the Howard Government are again seeking to at least create the perception of there being no real choice between policies (by introducing their own solutions to tackle workplace fairness, broadband rollout and climate change), therefore hoping to play down the policy difference, while turning up the heat on political difference (hence, the talk about “who do you trust?” and warnings about the “risk” of union bosses).
Spiros also writes:
“Nor is he (Kevin Rudd) Latham. He does not get into fights with taxi drivers. He is careful and measured.”
An important Project Management word to keep in mind may be “baseline” - that’s to say, the challenge of being careful and measured.
On this point, I wonder if we’ve found ourselves in the extreme opposite situation to the “not very measured” Mark Latham “crazy-brave” experience.
Now many are ultra-cautious in their assessment of Labor’s chances, with the Mainstream Media having “scheduled” a honeymoon for Rudd, while also thinking they could then “schedule” when things would go wrong for Rudd (the short lived “Mud against Rudd” schedule).
Now we’re drowning in push-polling so John Howard’s “scheduled revival” works to schedule when in fact our professional pundits should really be taking a deep breath and instead take a more measured approach to measurement itself
…From Justin
Frank, that’s a fantastic email isn’t it. Quite to the point.
Re THe Email, yep and this will backfire on the Libs badly.
Oh and good news, Senator Coonan is up for relection in the Senate this election as well
Didn’t hear that, but hearing JHo trying to talk his way around megabytes and fibre was like listening to a monkey on a stick trying to recite Hamlet.
She was positively feral. Hardly let poor old Kerry get a word in.
And seeing JHo’s question about “How Long Does It Take to Download a Moofie” idicates he must be have a thing for PrOn
Yeah, the tech dude was great though CK
“yeah mate, this’ll keep kicking world class bandwidth even in the event of a catastrophic 5 degree temperature rise. Put on it Thursday Island and the last boat out will still be downloading movies at 2 MG per minute, long as the top the aerial is above sea level, no problem. “
Coonan was just plain irritating Kim. I think thats part of the coalition’s problem. They’ve all got this ingrained, culture warrior, hectoring school principal style which is no longer paying off.
Yep. I had to turn the sound down to continue watching.
Concerning Coonan, I expect Bill Heffernan to turn up at the news conference today saying “who uses the internet, I don’t even know how to open my email”
Yet funny enough he didn’t turn up. So he must have thought that Labor’s broadband policy was a winner, after all didn’t they just copy most of Labor’s policy except for the stupid wireless for the bushies. Also Coonan lied when she was asked why it took 11yrs to give roll out a better broadband, she replied that broadband wasn’t around in 2003. Funny I had my broadband in 2000.
Michael Brissiden on 7.30 report says Nats ministers privately said that the Coonan broadband policy would not be good for the bush.
Do you think once they get the wireless broadband in the bush sorted out they’ll get around to fixing up mobile phone coverage? No, wait …
Oh and Four Corners won’t hope Ratty either, with their expose on the new sales culture of Telstra and the suicide of two former employees - one well documented.
Transcript not up yet, but a Backgrounder is here
Oh and Mark Vaile’s performance in Parliament won’t curry Favours with the Nats either.
Whoever that dopey flack they had from Telstra gets my C**t of the Year Award
I Totally agree. But it seems the Yankifcation of Telstra is on in earnest. I just hope people remember that at Election time.
Four Corners Online Forum on “Tough Love”
Warning, there are posts from Telstra and Call Centre Apologists.
Mark, you missed the money shot:
“If you go back over history, the last two elections, at this time out we were 10 per cent behind, it might be a little more these days, but 10 per cent, 11 per cent, what’s the difference?”
From the Govt Gazette:
Hmm
Interesting. That’s right, I think. Wonder if it’ll shape any further commentators - that piece is by Samantha Maiden not any of the usual suspects.
Yeah Kim, But alas Shemaham is still painting Ratty as Good, and Rudd as the Devil Inarnate.
On climate change, Howard has finally closed the gap on Labor with a proposed national emissions trading scheme to cut greenhouse gases. There are now two climate change plans on offer.
And details of the competing broadband plans are now clear.
Under a Labor Government, a fibre-to-the-node network will be rolled out to 98 per cent of Australians by 2012 at a taxpayer cost of up to $4.7 billion.
The Coalition’s combination wireless system will give 99 per cent of Australians very fast broadband by June 2009 at a cost to taxpayers of almost $1 billion.
In the beginning the industrial relations laws, with Labor backed by the unions, were one-way traffic. It’s now two-way, and fears of union domination, strikes, uncertainty and the potential impact on the economy are moving against Labor.
Let’s hope the voters get more details and debate than nit-picking and name-calling in the next few months.
Need I say more
Ahh, another quality Editorial from the Govt Gazette - NOT !
Kevin Rudd must remake Labor’s IR policy in his image
Shorter The Oz: Kevin Rudd is streets ahead of JHo because of Labor’s IR policy, therefore KR must adopt every aspect of the Coalition IR policy or he’ll lose.
They’re not even trying to align with reality.
Yeah, the Gazette have it arse-about as always.
Rudd’s IR policy is slaying the coalition in battler land, (partly from the sheer fact of actually standing for something solid), and he will win in a canter unless Rodent can pull a small family of rabbits from that hat.
Rudd just to has to hold course. All pressure is on their dark master.
Instead of heeding the Gazette’s useless advice, he should build on the theme. Making sure working families dont get cut out of the boomtimes etc.
Less than a month after warning that the Government faced electoral annihilation, Mr Howard said today the Coalition would be returned if it could convince voters not to take a risk with Labor.
The Govt Dirt Unit has been put on Stand-by.
But will the Electorate fall for it twice ??
More spin from Shemaham.
The Coalition has kept its dominance on the economy, national security and defence issues - although Labor has closed the gap on defence.
Industrial relations has been at the heart of the political debate for 18months, with the unions running advertising campaigns and the ALP releasing its alternative policy in April.
After an advertising blitz against the Howard Government’s industrial laws last year, Labor’s support on the issue rose to a two-year high of 51 per cent in February compared with the Coalition’s 27 per cent.
After the first anniversary of the new laws in March and the Labor policy release in April, followed by a concerted attack from the Government on unions, Labor’s support has fallen to 47per cent - the same as it was in February 2006.
During the same period, the Coalition’s support has risen from 27 per cent to 31 per cent - the highest it has been since the last election.
Is this guy on drugs or what ??
Margin of freakin error, Shanahan!
If by dominance you mean “is tied with”, then yes, Dennis.
If you think that’s good you should see today’s epistle: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21936072-17301,00.html
As opposed to telling AEC Officials to “Shut The Hell Up” over Ratty’s drinkies on the public purse Shamaham ?
Govt Advertising by Proxy.
Does this mean the Busisness Lobby are Patsy’s for the LIberal Party ?
Oh the Hypocrisy, after Ratty & Shrek and $weetie bleating over the ACTU “Secret Plan”