The UK police were the source of the misinformation about the location where Haneef’s old SIM card was found (scratch one of the perceived AFP stuffups, although it still seems odd that during his 12 days being interrogated no-one spotted the error as they were reviewing the British evidence).
The secret evidence against Haneef that Andrews relied upon for his visa revocation decision was, at least in part, an alleged chatroom conversation with his brother two days after the car-bombing at Glasgow airport, which hardly seems to demonstrate conclusively prior knowledge of the plot.
The phrases contained in the chatroom conversation as reported by Andrews seem suspicious although also open to innocent explanation (fear not guilt), but certainly do cast doubt on Haneef’s claim that his trip to India had nothing to do with the Glasgow bombing.
So, it was the UK police’s bungling which led to the charges regarding the SIM card collapsing. But what about the rest of the case against Haneef? To my eye Kevin Andrews wants to have his cake and eat it too.
If these chatroom conversations are sufficiently credible evidence of conspiracy to revoke his visa, then why was Haneef allowed to leave the country without conspiracy charges being laid? If these chatroom conversations are not sufficiently credible evidence upon which to lay charges of conspiracy, then why is Haneef’s visa not being reinstated?
The current state of play in the standoff between Congress and Bush over Iraq is that the military commander, General Petraeus, will report to Congress in September on the progress of the surge. Petraeus, who was appointed because he’s supposed to be an expert in counterinsurgency and to have better political antennae than other generals, has emphasised that the surge will not work if political progress is not made by Iraqis. This is generally understood to mean a settlement of oil revenue allocation which would not squeeze out the Sunnis, laws which revise de-Baathification, an inclusive government, disarming militias, and so on. All of which should have been done years ago if it was ever going to work. To date, Maliki’s government hasn’t even been able to present all the relevant laws to the Iraq parliament. In news today, it’s being reported that the Parliament is going on summer vacation til September, not resuming until just before Petraeus has to report.
The surge is dead.
I wouldn’t expect such paragons of diplomacy as Dolly Downer, too busy slagging off Mohammed Haneef, to have any comment. But the Liberal Party should be very afraid of the election period proper, when Labor intends to campaign vigorously on Iraq.
Elsewhere: More surge is dead news from Tim at Surfdom.
I’ve been resisting the urge to try to conceptualise what I like about Facebook, and what makes it different from other social networking media. Instead, I’ve been urging people to give it a try. But Pavlov’s Cat has done a tip top job of capturing its appeal.
An article in The Australian on the weekend quoted American cyberspace social researcher danah boyd at some length on its uses. Unfortunately, there appear to be only a few angles that journos use to write about social networking sites, just as with blogging. In this case it was the old standby, teh dangers of the intertubes, plus online politics (something in the news in Oz at the moment, and the subject of a previous couple of posts here at LP). Boyd1 has a lot of interesting stuff to say, and she’s more patient in dispelling these myths in interviews than perhaps I would be, but I’m not sure about this:
Boyd says there is an older demographic which uses the networking sites for dating. People browse friends’ sites looking for photos of other friends they like the look of. But they don’t have the time to “hang out” like younger users.
I think Pavlov’s Cat, and a number of other bloggers who aren’t the supposedly typical Gen Y youf (including me), would disagree with that! The idea that it’s a vehicle for dating is also an interesting one, and perhaps that’s more so in the States than in Australia (where it’s a relatively recent addition to the social networking menu, and where as far as I’m aware, no study of how it’s used has been done, and it shouldn’t be assumed that use of the same platforms across cultural borders is invariable). I did notice last week when sending some of my Sydney photos posted there to a friend that she mentioned that she couldn’t look at them at work, as the sysadmins had blocked it as a “dating site”.
…is out today. Details here. I’ve received a copy in the mail, and I’ll have a review posted in due course. But in the meantime, there’s some good news for psephological junkies feeling deprived by the absence of The Poll Bludger’s electorate maps. His very spiffy booth by booth 2004 swing and 2PP maps are on the Crikey election website for selected seats. There’s detailed commentary on key marginal seats and a couple of useful guides to the field of play in the House of Reps - an electoral pendulum and matrix.
Disclaimer: Though it’s well known that I write for Crikey, I don’t have anything to gain from people spending their twenty bucks on the election book. Nor will my review be quibble-free, though my overall view is that it’s a great read and an invaluable resource.
There’s an interesting piece of analysis of qualitative polling over at On Line Opinion from Graham Young of the very large sample of respondents to the National Forum poll I wrote about in an earlier post. It’s worth reading in its entirety, rather than an extensive summary from me, but it is interesting to observe that he found that the swing to Labor was more or less across the board rather than coming from particular demographics, which is consistent with the quantitative polling showing big swings against the Coalition in its own safe seats. Young suggests that much of the swing may be soft, and that many of the voters shifting have attitudes somewhat different from those you would normally find among Labor supporters. That’s, of course, not surprising if a big swing is on, but it does suggest to him that the election’s not in the bag for Labor. However, it’s also worth observing that none of the attack lines the Coalition have used against Rudd seem to have done Labor much damage, and their general air of crisis and disarray tends to undermine their own credibility.
While we’re talking about polls, there’s some discussion of the latest Galaxy poll over at The Poll Bludger.
While down here in marvellous Melbourne our Premier might have left at the top of his game, an even more important figure was eased out. For every column inch devoted to Steve Bracks going, there has been two devoted to Kevin Sheedy, the innovative, slightly eccentric coach of the Essendon Football Club, who led the club to four premierships over 26 years in the job. Unlike Bracks, however, there might be an ulterior motive behind the timing of the announcement that Kevin Sheedy’s contract won’t be renewed. Like several other AFL clubs who have recently sacked their coaches, Essendon apparently wanted to make sure that they had the chance to sign Michael Voss for the job.
Voss, for those who don’t follow Aussie Rules, was the captain of the team that won three consecutive premierships in 2001, 2002, and 2003, and were losing grand finallists in 2004. While certainly not lacking in skill, he was probably most reknowned for his toughness, and was regarded as the most inspirational on-field leader of the era. Since retiring from playing in 2006, he’s spent the year doing “expert comments” for the Channel 10 footy TV coverage. However, his coaching career consists of taking the Australian Institute of Sport under-17’s side to victory over the South African national team on a tour there.
Here’s one for the Aeon Flux fans. Peter Chung re/visions Tomb Raider:
It’s much more Chung than Lara Croft. Here’s an interview he gave about his view of film-making, in the context of the remastering of the Aeon DVD:
I was very aware from the beginning that the stories I wanted to tell were unconventional, experimental, nonliteral. They are based on personal experience, observation, insight. They are not meant to make the viewer feel comfortable, reassured or familiar. The kinds of stories I tell are the only kind that seem right to me. They aren’t linear because life isn’t linear. Linearity is reductive.
Today Kevin Andrews had this to say about the character of Dr. Mohamed Haneef.
His lawyers indicated to my department … that he wanted to get out of Australia as soon as possible. If anything that rather heightens, rather than lessens, my suspicions.
So, what did you think of the man that aroused such suspicion in the Minister for Immigration and Citizenship?
Despite having a really appalling cold which probably means I should go back to bed, I couldn’t be more excited about the Deborah Conway gig at the Powerhouse this arvo (part of the Queensland Festival of Music.) If we’re very lucky, she might give us “Warnings Moving Clockwise”, a stripped-down acoustic version of which I loved when I last saw her play in Brisvegas a few years ago.
The commentary from Rod Cameron on Lateline last night was interesting. As Christopher Sheil observes at Troppo, the key insight is that Costello’s trashing of Howard’s record as Treasurer and criticism of his profligacy as PM is very dangerous for the government. It’s not hard to imagine campaign ads generously excerpting Costello’s money quotes. Another interest rate rise would also devalue the economic management card. And there’s some more interesting analysis from Dennis Shanahan (let’s give credit when it’s due) over at the Government Leaning on the Fence Gazette.
But the real success for Rudd was that he crafted a narrative on the economy that convinced people Australia is not in the golden age of economic growth we’ve been told we are and that he cares about people who cannot get what they want. Beazley’s argument of crisis simply didn’t wash with unemployment at 30-year lows, real wages rising, inflation low, interest rates relatively low and with labour shortages the biggest problem facing the economy. Howard and Peter Costello were able to argue from the general across to the specific: that is, the economic fundamentals were the best they had been for decades and therefore ordinary people were better off.
Rudd inverted the formula. He argued instead that there were too many people who couldn’t buy a house, there were people who had gone broke, petrol prices were high, young married couples were working two jobs and child care was eating away the second salary, and there were individuals who couldn’t afford what they reasonably wanted. Rudd’s argument from the evidence of specific cases - undeniable ones - was to then ask if this was all happening, how could the economy be so good.
It is a logic that is attractive to individuals, accessible to them, and that recognises people’s pain no matter how company profits, real estate values or consumer spending rise.
This was Rudd’s first battle plan: convince voters not only that the Government was old and tired but also that it was not answering individual needs on expectations of material benefits, wasn’t helping young people buy a house and didn’t care about rising prices.
j-p-z has once more come up with the idea, over on the Harry Potter (No spoilers!) thread.[1] A good cause will end up getting at least $250 and we all get some winter wordplay.
Here’s an idea, in honor of everybody lately satisfying their Harry Potter jones, and it being all wintery in Oz. (We’ll see whether or not this gets any traction…)
There hasn’t been a zany contest around here for a while; so, for the benefit of some charity, I propose the “VERY SHORT SPOOKY STORY CONTESTâ€?. I will donate $25 per entry for the first 10 entries (up to $250… anyone care to back the next batch?) of a very short spooky story that conforms to the following rules… Continue reading ‘Another LP donation challenge!’
So many half-arsed assumptions and incompetent deductions.
A spokesman for Scotland Yard would not comment on the investigation or how the mistake was made. He would not say how the British-Australian operation was conducted, but the British source said he believed the federal police were blaming geographical and time differences for the bungle.
“It deserves a public inquiry, that kind of mess-up,” the source said. He also said police involved in searching Sabeel Ahmed in Liverpool were appalled at what he said was political pressure on the federal police by the Federal Government.
So far the Immigration Minister is holding firm on his decision to revoke Haneef’s visa, so it is likely that Haneef will be deported as soon as he’s released.
Well, Bracksy can pull a surprise when he wants to, can’t he?
The press conference didn’t really give much away as to his reasons - while he indicated that the recent events involving his son’s drink-driving helped to “confirm his decision”, the overwhelming impression presented that he’d just decided to get out while the going was good for himself and his government, where the new leader (very likely to be Treasurer John Brumby) had the best opportunity to establish themselves.
If you’re looking for conspiracy theories to explain the timing, there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of scandal floating around. John Thwaites’ enthusiasm for free ski trips seems to have been neatly submarined by Thwaites taking the opportunity to go as well. The only political issue that really comes to mind is that the notably socially conservative Bracks didn’t want to be involved in the upcoming abortion decriminalization debate.
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