Gordon Brown hasn’t had the most pleasant of starts to his Prime Ministership, with three failed car bombing attempts in the past couple of days (incidentally, what kind of whackers are these guys? How hard is it to set off a bomb?). But his very first task as Prime Minister is, while unlikely to be ever acted upon, is perhaps even more foreboding:
As prime minister, with ultimate responsibility for Britain’s nuclear deterrent, Mr Brown has to write a letter, in his own hand, giving instructions detailing what the UK’s response should be in the event of a pre-emptive nuclear attack.
The letter will be opened only by the commander of a British Trident submarine, who would have to assume that the prime minister was no longer in a position to take “live” command of the situation. The options are said to include the orders: “Put yourself under the command of the US, if it is still there”; “go to Australia”; “retaliate”; “or use your own judgment”.
The Trident submarines carry 16 missiles armed with 48 nuclear warheads; while a tiny fraction of the arsenals of the USA or Russia, on its own the missiles are sufficient to wreak massive destruction, including killing tens of millions of people. It’s no wonder that Tony Blair reportedly “went white” after being briefed prior to writing the letter.
What orders could you possibly give to a commander in such circumstances - even assuming that they would be followed? And, furthermore, why should such momentous decisions be placed in the hands of one person?
1. Have a cup of tea.
2. New Zealand play cricket.
“sink your bloody boat - political systems come and revenge is a bit pointless if you make the earth uninhabitable.”
1. Find a large island in the Pacific, close to one of the major ocean floor trenches.
2. Scuttle the bloody boat and get ashore.
3. You and your crew are now civilians - good luck in your new lives.
oops:
“sink your bloody boat - political systems come and go and revenge is a bit pointless if you make the earth uninhabitable.�
Presumably because the other members of the war cabinet are indisposed due to the fact that they’ve just been nuked to smithereens.
As if he doesn’t have enough on his plate the new PM has to deal with a vicious attack by the EU on Scottish manhood and their traditional way of life. http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Scots-may-need-licences-for-sporrans/2007/06/27/1182623946190.html
What are the Scots meant to do, go out onto the highways and and byways looking for roadkill to adorn their national dress in order to comply with this insane EU directive? I see shades of Braveheart here, with the dour but charismatic Caledonian, his face covered in woad, rallying the troops to defy this act of oppression. GB adopting the Euro? Not a chance after that affront.
One thing’s for sure. Whatever else happens if a nuclear war breaks out Gordon will be saving at least one nuclear weapon for Brussels.
Lazy and fatuous.
In the event that the letter ever was opened, you’d have a RN submarine commander in control of some serious nuclear weaponry, faced with the decision of whether he was going to follow training, discipline and the traditions of a now defunct service or turn privateer. A crazy situation by any standards.
1. Periscope down.
2. Pull yourself together, man.
3. Stop blubbering.
4. Put Beckham on strike.
5. Cancel the Quidditch Cup.
C’mon guys - the simple fact of this letter’s existence is merely meant to make a potential attacker think again. That’s all.
On this, though, Gummo is right to an extent - it would be crazy. But that is what MAD is all about.
Dive! Dive! Dive! And don’t come up for a couple of months.
Patronising and unceremonious.
However I do withdraw my previous comment and acknowledge my misreading of the original post.
Your Pension Plan has been cancelled.
Best wishes for your future endeavours.
Love, Gordon.
Hmm. Gordon’s very own Dr Strangelove moment.
I reckon Gummo got it about right:
“Beat-it to somewhere that doesn’t glow in the dark (if you can find such a spot), scuttle the boat, ditch the uniform and try to blend-in with the natives.”
Sorry, don’t know why I’m riffing on this. At times like these, only gallows humour seems to fit the bill:
6. Don’t renew Foxtel subscription.
7. Check use-by date on cans of beans.
8. Finally get around to writing a Will.
9. Reminisce.
10. Lose some weight. That’s an order.
Launch the bastards…
Shrift is a privilege, not a right.
Just had to get that out of the way. Very gracious of you Tony.
Payback time. Find Tony Blair!
Hey, if you believe the “I’ll gladly pay you 72 virgins Tuesday for a suicide bombing today” line you’re not too smart to begin with.
I wonder if these are more Finsburian Candidates.
My point with “one person” making the decision is not the sub commander, I’m saying that the guidelines should have the input of at least the security subcommittee of Cabinet.
FWIW, my letter would ask the sub commander to use his judgement, but the priorities are:
The co-ordinates for Kirribilli house are in a locker marked,with love Gough.
Robert
Massive and decisive retaliation without batting an eyelid. It is as simple as that.
Umm.Worrying about one sub commander is a bit stupid when there is other subs out there including U.S,Isralie,Russian ect.You are talking about a sub commander having to take charge after some wacko has exploded nuclear weapons in the west that has wiped out leadership to the point that it all comes down to a sub captian…Excuse me if i don’t give a shit about what his orders are…Worrying about the best way to shut the gate is a bit stupid after the horse has bolted.
Madness!
Beckham upfront?! — you might as well put Gerrard in centreback! So many armchair post-apocalyptic football ‘analysts’, so little sense…
Oh and Gordon, I’ve found a solution to the ‘conscience-wracked Sub commander’ problem. What could possib-ly go wrong…?
Robert, I’m not quite sure you get the MAD concept. The only way *having* a deterrent capability in the first place is that the weapons *must* be used in futile revenge attacks; there isn’t any other conceivably justifiable reason for having the Bomb. Deterrence against surprise attack is the second of the only two jobs submarines carrying Trident are built for—the first, of course, being first-strike itself. It’s a total inversion of any concept of just war, but then again, unlike other grand theories, it’s worked very effectively for a long time.
I’m with Andrew Reynolds: poking fun at deterrence is sooo 1963.
Also,
Not too hard, but AQ are obviously reading up on carbomb history. When the IRA were bombing London, they found out that it’s just as easy to cause havoc by mucking up an attack as by actually carrying one out, because the police and security forces do the frightening, walking about with guns on the street, filling the headlines, and so-on. In some ways it’s more effective, because the terrorists remain alive and free.
The State’s monopoly on violence is threatened, bang or fizzle.
[ahem]
“The only way *having* a deterrent capability works in the first place…”
That’s true. But as you very well know, Gen. Ripper, if it comes to the stage where the futile revenge attacks have to be carried out, then deterrence has failed and it’s utterly pointless to actually carry out the revenge attacks. The paradox of MAD.
What’s actually more important is that the enemy thinks that the futile revenge attacks will be carried out. So what Brown should do is take the human element out of the loop, install WOPR to make the actual decisions and then make an awesome 80s movie about it.
Ja, that is true, Mein Führer—I mean, Brett—deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy the *fear* to attack.
I naturally would prefer the submarines’ captains to be removed entirely from the equation, and the task of deterrence given to banks of computers, with gigantic tape memory banks. Because of the automated and irrevocable decision-making process which rules out human meddling, the Doomsday Machine is terrifying. It’s simple to understand. And completely credible and convincing, yes?
Dear Commander
I have enclosed a copy of Nevil Shute’s excellent book “on the beach”. I encourage you to read it. Also, 300 recent episodes of Neighbours and Celebrity Survivor. I hope they assist. Good luck.
Gordon
I believe privateering is the British Way.
I would be naming the new Tridents Drake, Hawkins, Raleigh and Dampier.
save your arses. New Zealand is a nice place with commendably sane leadership.
So sane that we don’t allow nuclear powered or armed vessels to enter our waters. So, a submarine crew would need a lift from the 12-mile limit, and if they scuttles their toy anywhere near us, they’d be very unpopular when they made it to shore.
(If they’d actually fired their missiles, then we’d likely prosecute the fuckers. Fortunately, being civilised, we don’t have the death penalty, even for mass murdering war criminals).
Of course in those circumstances they have the nuclear missiles and you do not, so I think they’d soon persuade you to overlook the legal niceties, otherwise they just might fire a few of them onto Wellington, Auckland and Christchurch, which really would ruin your day. Though I’d prefer they did not bother to try persuasion.
It must give you great pride to consider that New Zealand’s entire defence policy can be summed up in one word; Australia.
Every time I hear the New Zealand national anthem I think “That’s nice, their invoking the divine in us Australians” because if the world gets nasty it won’t be God, and certainly not yourselves, since you now have neither an air force nor a navy to speak of, that will be defending New Zealand.
From ‘Fail-Safe’ (1964)
Prof. Groeteschele: [walking to the podium] I’ve been making a few rough calculations on the effect of two twenty megaton bombs dropped on New York City in the middle of a normal workday. I estimate the immediate dead at about three million. I include in that figure those buried beneath collapsed buildings. It would make no difference, Admiral Wilcox, whether they reached a shelter or not. They would die just the same. Add another million or two who will die within five weeks. Now our immediate problem will be the join one of fire control and excavation. Excavation not of the dead, the effort would be wasted.
For even though there are no irreplaceable government documents in New York City, many of our largest corporations keep their records there. It will be necessary to…
…rescue as many of those records as we can. Our economy depends on this.
Prof. Groeteschele: [walking disgustedly back to his seat before noisily opening and closing his briefcase] Our economy depends on this.
[after closing briefcase at end of movie]
Prof. Groeteschele: And the Lord said, gentlemen, “Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.”
(source: IMDB)
On the same theme:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/quotes
Anyone else ever played the Fallout games?
Maybe they can send the sub commanders a copy, for training purposes of course
Idiot/Savant, retaliatory nuclear strikes in the context of the Cold War would have been in no sense war crimes under Geneva, though a pre-emptive first strike would certainly have been an example of Waging Aggressive War. I believe the ICJ ruled in the 1990s that deterrence of the MAD sort involving cities, as long as it kept the principle of proportionality, was legal.
Aha, I’m wrong again—here’s a copy of the advisory opinion, which is interesting. It doesn’t say deterrence is legal, but it doesn’t say it’s illegal either:
I await, naturally, Peter Kemp to give us advice on the basis of Australian contract law.
Fiasco: while the ICJ was unable to conclude whether the use of nuclear weapons was a crime, I think a New Zealand jury wouldbe more than happy to.
Failing that, we’ll just charge them with 10 million counts of murder each. That ought to be enough to keep them in jail.
Under what rules, I/S? Quite clearly the use of nuclear weapons is not an international crime, not in the same league as (say) hostage-taking. Certainly the United States, the only country ever to have dropped the Bomb in war, remains thoroughly unprosecuted.
Counts of murder—sure, but then you’d leave the traditional Laws of War that the Geneva Conventions were so keen to preserve in a totally unsustainable position. Geneva, which is the basis of the NZ Statute you linked to, was entirely about drawing lines between combatants and non-combatants. Putting uniformed sailors on trial for legitimate actions in wartime would rather bring them to the same status as anyone else who wanted to do a bit of amateur international aggression: you know, non-state terrorists. If you made warmaking equally illegal for everyone, why shouldn’t everyone do it? That’s exactly what Geneva was designed to prevent.
In any case, if there was anything left of the UK, Her Majesty’s Government would have something to say about NZ prosecuting their servicemen and servicewomen for doing their duty.
Oh, I hadn’t seen your contribution, Cut ‘n’ Paste Greenfield. Well, I’m a sucker for interesting questions, even if they come from under bridges, so here we go.
It’s certainly not as simple as that, and hasn’t been since the post-USSR proliferation of the 1990s. The Soviet bloc doesn’t exclusively threaten NATO anymore, and a nuclear attack on the United Kingdom could in future come from any number of sources, state-based, quasi-state based, and outright terrorist. Mostly the new threats are invulnerable to the classically conceived deterrence, having no fixed military bases, large capitals or identifiable territory. Against who would you retaliate, against supporters, backers, countries of origin? David Hicks was from Adelaide, after all. As a flat circle of radioactive glass, it’d be even more boring than now—though I’d certainly miss the Barossa, and the Coopers brewery.
I recall in the wilds of 2002/2003 the ‘Nuke Mecca’ option having a bit of currency amongst right-wing bloggers. Retaliation against a third party most certainly would be a war crime, without any possible legal or moral justification.
Also, can there possibly be any NZ jurisdiction when British servicepeople kill people from another country while in international waters? I really don’t think so. Or is NZ declaring itself the world’s policeman now as well?
Anyway, the letter that PM Brown has to draft is just one of those timely reminders that nuclear weapons are still out there, threatening all life on this planet. About time we respected the intent of Article VI of the NPT, rather than solely blathering on to Iran about how immoral they are…
Wilful: Come up with a vaguely plausible plan to get rid of them and I’ll be right there.
As far as I can tell, nobody has one yet.
The best we can do for the moment is reduce stockpiles to a minimum deterrent (something akin to what Britain has, actually) and put them on low states of alert.
By the way, I think Dr. McKittrick’s post sums the situation up, if it ever got to that state.
Robert, wilful has already come up with the solution: let New Zealand assume the mantle of the world’s policeman. With its mighty navy and airforce it should have no problems at all in rapidly rounding up the miscreants and bringing them before New Zealand juries for prosecution under the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act 1987, which would, I am reliably informed, be happy to convict them.
Or the UnZudders could do the haka and poke their tongues out at them. That should do the trick and make them all rush to disarm.
Gentlemen, gentlemen, let us not be too hasty here.
There are many exciting options on the table before we need to fall back on the New Zealand solution.
Fiasco da Gama
It never ceases to amaze me that otherwise well-educated informed adult men and women can introduce nonsensical notions of, virtually non-existent, “international law” into topics such as this one.
Fiasco da Gama
And that is why there has only have been two used.
Besides, the notions of crime you are relying on were drawn up after dropping of said bombs and drawn up by, and for the benefit, of the United States.
For those of you wishing to accquaint themselves more fully with the apocalypse, I can heartily recommend this game: multiplayer, available for Mac and Linux, free demo, easy upgrade and there’s no way of playing it without killing millions of innocent civillians. Or you could go crazy and live on an island somewhere with a huge collection of model dinosaurs with which to freak out young Ally Sheedy…
Goodnight, children!
Dear Commander,
Time to go postal. There are four of you - find out which other subs can still launch and co-ordinate with them - find out who did this to us and make them wish they never had.
Use three volleys. First volley is payback. Second volley when they don’t surrender or concede to our demands and third volley to make it clear we mean what we say.
Your country depends on you.
Oh and save one volley for New Zealand just for being such annoying and sanctimonious little tw*ts.
Ah, I see Mr Razor has chosen to proceed to rung 34 ‘Slow motion counterforce war’.
Myself, I would preferred to linger longer at rung 29 ‘Examplary Attacks on Population’ but really by now, it is pretty much a matter of personal aethestic preferences, is it not?
The rules of the game:
Razor’s funny little response:
And which demands would those be, given that London and the entire governing apparatus of GB is a luminescent crater?
More likely is this:
Assuming that he is unable to establish any contact with the British chain of command, as commander of the most viable British force, his task would likely be to pick up the highest ranking surviving member of the royal family he can find with a view to preserving and re-establishing British sovereignty.
Considering the circumstances, I think the sub should contain a time capsule that includes the PM’s personal letter of greeting, introducing the submarine captain and crew to Doctor Zaius.
Herman,
I think Razor went straight to rung 44: Spasm or Insensate War.
I guess it’s a case of “whatever submerges your sub”.
Dear Captain_______
If you are reading this, nuclear war has broken out and the United Kingdom and her allies have not prevailed. Therefore, you are now in charge of one of the most heavily armed vessels on the high seas and without any civilian oversight.
I hereby instruct you to act independently in a manner consistent with the long traditions of the Royal Navy.
Accordingly you will find in the sealed oilskin packet marked Special Operations Plan D, the following:
- One Jolly Roger flag.
- One map of the world’s major shipping lanes.
- One letter of marque from Lloyds of London guaranteeing a 40% cut of all - salvage rights pertaining to any vessels or cargo that may fall within your possession.
- One illustrated history of the Royal Navy, entitled ‘Rum, Bum and Concertina’.
- One handsomely framed photograph of HM Queen Elizabeth II.
- One signed photograph of myself.
- 12 dozen RN regulation issue ‘Long Tom’ prophylactics.
- One gift voucher for 12 bottles of Appleton White Overproof Jamaican Rum, redeemable at all major duty free stores .
- One carton of Rothman 20s.
- One eye patch, black, left eye, for use of.
- One cutlass – courtesy Imperial War Museum.
- 235 pounds sterling in gold sovereigns.
- One CD “The Very Best of Noel Coward�.
- Six pairs fishnet stocks, concert parties, for the use of.
- One cat o’ nine tails - courtesy House of Lords private bar.
The First Sea Lord has informed me that one could have a pretty good weekend in Barbados with all that stuff so, as a token of gratitude from a grateful nation, a heavily annotated copy of the Lonely Planet guide to the Islands of the Caribbean has also been included in the Special Operations Plan D packet.
Good luck, god speed and God save the Queen.
The Right Honourable Gordon Brown, Prime Minister Of The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Nabs - so good to have you back!
Fiasco de Gama:
Care to make a small wager on that, Fiasco? ;0)
Actually, it sounds like Adelaide’s best urban renewal strategy since the Multi-Function Polis.
And I reckon a lot of peole would travel a long way to see a two-mile wide glass lens. Could be a very effective tourist drawcard.
And it lends a whole new dimension to the phrase “where the bloody hell are you?”
Sorry, gallows humour again.
Cut ‘n’ pasted from old ‘Cut ‘n’ Paste’ (arrrgh):
Ask General Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic how virtually non-existent the Geneva conventions are, if you can find ‘em. The Laws of War are surprisingly enforceable when it comes to elected political leaders and serving members of regular military forces.
You ought also to make sure you don’t agree with me about the non-existence of nuclear deterrent war crime before you double-comment (2.20pm). You’re an embarrassment to trolls everywhere, love.
I second Professor Falken’s recommendation of Defcon — there’s also a PC version. Make sure you get one of the Wargames mods (e.g.) for that extra nostalgia buzz!
I’m actually no good at RTS games, but it’s fun even just to spectate somebody else’s game and watch them nuke hundreds of millions of people like it’s 1983. Am I bad?
I think Nabs is going to nab the award for best blog comment this year. Again.
By the way, thank you, Herr Kahn, for reminding us of your escalation ladder. I notice that the current lily-livered wimp of a US President has, despite all urgings from many respected sections of the blogosphere, only taken his country to rung 14 of the ladder against those beastly Islamics. I was hoping for a nuclear ‘Civilian Devastation Attack’ (rung 42) at the very least.
“The First Sea Lord has informed me that one could have a pretty good weekend in Barbados…”
Oh, it’s always all about the *first* friggin’ Sea Lord! First Sea Lord, lah-dee-freakin’-dah! “First Sea Lord made captain of the rugby team! First Sea Lord can talk in ebonics! First Sea Lord got a gold star in geography from Mrs. McCutcheon! First Sea Lord is taking Stacy Pringle to the dance on Saturday!” I’m telling you I’ve had it with hearing about the First Sea Lord! What about that robot I built for science class?! It could pick up peanuts and shell them! Doesn’t that count for anything? Am I a complete nobody to you?! Am I?
Screw this. I’m going home to work on my bomb.
Sea Lords? Hah! They wouldn’t let me be a bleedin’ Sea Lord would they? Not even part-time.
And if I’ve said it once, Waldo, I must have said it a thousand times - we don’t want your bloody sardine gas bomb. If you ever get the bloody thing working it’ll be in clear breach of the Geneva Convention anyway.
“Give it back! Give it back, dumb-face!”
“Make me, sucktard.”
“Give it back! –Mom!!”
MOM: (rolls eyes, from the patio) What is it now, Waldo?
“Mom, the First Sea Lord stole my DVD of A Scanner Darkly, and he won’t give it back! Make him give it back!”
MOM: Waldo, learn to play nice. The two of you children should just *share* your toys.
“It isn’t a toy, Mom! It’s an adaptation of a Philip K. Dick science fiction story, and it’s got Keanu Reeves, and it’s rotoscoped and everything!”
FSL: “Yak yak yak. A Scanner Darkly? More like, A Scanner Fartly.”
MOM: (giggles) Oh, First Sea Lord, you are so funny sometimes. How would you boys like some lemonade?
FSL: Thank you, Mrs. Freeblemeyer.
“Mom, you’re missing the point! The First Sea Lord stole my DVD!”
MOM: Well I’m sure it wasn’t very good anyway, just like the First Sea Lord says. First Sea Lord, what was in that letter that Gordon Brown wrote you?
FSL: Oh, it was ever so fascinating, Mrs. F.
MOM: Well you’ll have to tell me all about it… Waldo? Waldo! Where are you going?
“I’m gonna go to the garage, and work on my bomb.”
If these are the only options open to the Captain of a surviving British submarine, then it makes me wonder why the bloody Brits have spent all that money to have both it and the weapons in the first place….
Cheers…
As Fiasco was alluding to earlier, the idea is to convince one’s enemies that you will rain down feiry death on them if they attack, so they don’t attack in the first place.
The question as to precisely which enemy is likely to attack the UK with nuclear weapons is a good one; the answer seems to be there’s none right now, but they’re keeping them just in case.