I expect we might hear some Newspoll numbers tonight, so that’s polls plural. The Galaxy poll [pdf] is out today, and it shows Labor recovering 2 points on the 2PP and 2 on primaries, for a 55-45 lead after preferences. As Christian Kerr observes:
Galaxy have learned their lesson after the controversy surrounding their questions last month. Their latest efforts are absolutely plain vanilla.
Of most interest, probably, are the findings about the PM’s Indigenous state of emergency and trade union leaders - for the latter, there is commentary from Andrew Norton and Trevor Cormack. Here’s Christian Kerr again:
“Do you think Prime Minister John Howard is addressing problems in Aboriginal communities because of the upcoming federal election or because he really cares about the problem?” Galaxy have asked.
We appear to be a cynical bunch. 58% of respondents said it was because of the federal election. The PM might have regained control of the agenda, but Galaxy suggests that we’re unimpressed.
Tim Dunlop comments on the way this poll is being interpreted compared to the spin around the last Galaxy Poll:
Just as interestingly, despite their June poll, which had the government within 6 points of Labor on a two-party preferred (2PP) basis—which caused The Australian to declare “voter infatuation with Mr Rudd� was over—this latest Galaxy poll shows Labor’s 2PP lead increasing again to 10 points (45-55). Does that mean the “infatuation� is back on? Today’s Oz editorial doesn’t tell us.
But Matt Price at the Government Gazette writes:
Howard, incidentally, should be horrified by the Galaxy poll (Howard poll stocks dip again) which, besides putting Labor way out in front, has 58 per cent of punters dismissing the Northern Territory mission as blatant vote grabbing.
Barely one in four voters believes the PM genuinely cares about the issue of child sex abuse. Has there been a more devastating poll than this in recent months?
Discuss away!
I’ve said it before and I will say it again.
Howard’s current strategy is not about winning but ensuring there is an honourable loss. Talking about union “dangers”, law and order in indigenous communioties - this is speaking to tory voters who have left the fold and he needs back to avoid a wipeout. A scare campaign about trade union leaders will not win an election.
Interesting idea. But the Liberal party would have to be pretty demoralised (in any sense you think of) if they know this and are still prepared to go along with it.
Accepting that premise, the only reason Howard’s still PM is that no-one else wants to be the Prime Minister who presided over the historic political demise of “Menzies’ Child”. There’s a certain delicious irony in the possibility that the longest serving Liberal PM since Menzies looks set to be wearing that one.
There is however, another way to salvage honour from the current mess. It’s what the military call “surrender”.
I haven’t read the actual wording of the questions that Galaxy asked in this latest poll, or the previous one that supposedly showed the govt on the rebound, (maybe they were push polling, maybe they weren’t) but ain’t it the case that these sort of small movements of 2-3 per cent are just the sort of statistical slop that one would expect in a poll based on a relatively small sample of a 1,000 or so.
Cheers…
One of the things that struck me about the Galaxy poll was the extent to which believed that John Howard’s Indigenous State of emergency is an election stunt. I’m sure Howard knew this would be the case, hence the endless run of editorials and commentry attacking those that disagree with the plan and who “dare to suggest” that this was all about politics.
What this poll tends to demonstrate is the limited amount of power that those wielding the editorial powers out in MSM land actually have. People are making their own minds up and they aren’t buying the spin anymore. I guess that the electorate is losing trust in the Libs and the people that act as their megaphones.
I haven’t read them either but judging by the example quoted, the framing of the questions would have played a big part in the poll results.
For example I’m willing to bet that if this:
was substited with this:
the results would be markedly different.
The question as originally worded is clear and unambiguous. Your proposed revision might prompt people to ask for a clarification and then respond “Nah, it’s because of the election, mate.”
I doubt that this result can be chalked up to a poorly worded question. What mick said in his second paragraph.
Gummo, I just read Tim Dunlop’s article on the polls (that Mark linked to above) and I noticed he is pushing a similar line:
All right Gummo, I believe even this would bring a different result:
The word ‘really’ is inserted to make people stop and question what they might otherwise have accepted. The order of the offered alternatives is the other vital component.
Matt Price over at the Govt Gazette is still in denial over the Galaxy Poll and is admonishing people for even daring that they only Spin good polls the Govt way.
I can’t wait to see what Shamaham produces when Newspoll comes out.
Is that an example of a “forced choice” question (one for the social scientists)?
If so, the result of omitting it would be to increase your undecideds - but by how much is a matter for speculation only. So we won’t discuss it. No point having an argument about half-baked hypotheses.
mick,
I’d have to go back over previous poll data to check, but I doubt that John Howard was ever held in particularly high regard outside the fairy tale factory to begin with. In 1999 he squeaked it in with an overall minority of the total vote, it was electoral geography that kept the Libs in power.
So the cynicism about Howard’s motivations shouldn’t surprise. Well, more than mildly, because I admit that I didn’t expect it. I didn’t expect the question to be polled either - never occurred to me.
After a quick glance I notice that Matt Price is getting hammered in the comments. It looks like Labor has mobilized its interwebby army…
Gummo, somewhat hazy recollections tell me that Howard’s personal approval ratings moved around depending on the election but that since 2001 he has won the personal apporval battle.
But, I agree with the thrust of what you’re saying. That is, a big chunk of Howard’s popularity is purely spin.
Another view?
“Do you think Prime Minister John Howard is addressing problems in Aboriginal communities because of the upcoming federal election or because he really cares about the problem?�
The direct statement that John Howard is “addressing problems”, leaves many respondents with no where to go. It demands agreement that he is actually tackling the issue, in a positive manner; far from neutral.
Agreed on that, but one further observation, if I may, on the use of the word ‘really’ in the original question. It has the effect of actually asking two questions when only one is apparent. The interviewee is asked to consider not only why the PM is taking action but also whether he cares about the problem.
Tony of South Yarra - you are exactly right when you say that the order of the offered alternatives is significant. Any reputable polling organisation can and will make sure that alternatives are offered in a changing randomised order, somewhat analgous to the Robson rotation on ballot forms. This ensures that the so-called “Donkey Vote” is evenly distributed and thus plays no role in determining the outcome. So your question could be put thus:
“Do you think Prime Minister John Howard is addressing problems in Aboriginal communities because he really cares about the problem or because of the upcoming federal election?� AND
“Do you think Prime Minister John Howard is addressing problems in Aboriginal communities because of the upcoming federal election or because he really cares about the problem?�
50% of the respondents could be asked the 1st of these alternatives and 50% the 2nd. If there are 3 alternatives, then each alternative gets to go 1st in 33.3333% of surveys, and so forth. It don’t make polling perfect, but it will go some way toward reducing the biases that can creep into this crude form of measurement. After all, it ain’t rocket science.
Cheers…
mick,
And since the issue of a question’s wording has been raised, isn’t the approval rating based on a question something like “Do you approve of JH’s performance as Prime Minister?” - not “Do you think John Howard is an honest person?” etc.
I think so Gummo. I don’t think it normally specifically mentions anything about trust. I think. Maybe.
If the Newspoll tonight shows a swing away from Howard of any significance then the game is over for Howard. It will be the most important poll of Howard’s phoney election campaign so far.
So far the tactics which would have produced a winning edge for Howard in previous campaigns are working against Howard. His recent report card reds like this:
Throwing mud over Brian Burke in parliament to distract from performance of McFarlane …Failed. Sacking Campbell for doing nothing…Failed. Reshuffling ministry multiple times… Failed. Sunrise Anzac Day beat up…Failed. Hanging onto Santo Santoro when the first dodgy share dealings came to light…Failed. Budget porkbarrelling and budget bribes …Failed. Re jigging workchoices allegedly to make it fairer…Failed. Attacking Union bosses for insisting on their right of entry at workplaces …Failed. Blitzkrieg and Land grab rather than considered workable solutions to stop violence and child sexual abuse …Failed.
Newspoll tonight should show them the results of their pathetic efforts.
Geez, the ABC is reporting twaddle like this.
Note it is By Chris Uhlmann, who is a well known Anti ALP Jounalist at Aunty.
God I hope you’re right Steve. I could barely look as Howard hit the centre stage with guns blazing on the war on Aboriginal child abuse. All the Howard-hugging commentariat were cheering with glee as they loudly denounced anyone who dared criticise his stand as being soft on child abuse. Even http://news.ninemsn.com.au/oakes was out there commending his leadership on the issue. Uh-0h I thought - here comes another wedge!
But no, the Galaxy Poll - if you can discount the 2% as a statistical blip - seems to say that people are just not giving him any brownie points for it at all. Indeed it all seems to boil down to this very cynical electorate. But hey, cynicism in the electorate towards politicians is not new. Howard exploited that cynicism himself when he destroyed our chances of becoming a republic - so it’s been there for a while. And now - Ha! Ha! it seems to be coming out to bite him on the bum.
Frank, Heard that rubbish on PM tonight. My reaction was similar to yours. The ABC in Brisbane is just not much more than a joke. They are so lightweight as to be unlistenable in most timeslots now.
Assuming that the 2% shift back to Labor is just a statistical blip, I think the news is even worse for Howard than if people were waiting for him with baseball bats. Despite all guns blazing and Howard-hugging Commentariat denouncing anyone who dared criticise his initiative as being soft on child abuse, people really seem to be becoming indifferent to whatever Howard says or does - that they don’t seem to be listening to him any more. This has been observed by a number of people in the mainstream media and maybe they are right. But I suppose the Howard pundits are going to cry that Galaxy is unreliable now, despite the Terrorgraph praising Galaxy as being one of the most accurate polls around - last time it polled a shift towards Howard. Now I’ll have to stay up tonight until the first five minutes of Lateline…
Steve,
Yeah, Ever since the Howardification of the ABC Board, there has been a shift in the ABC to become a Mouthpiece for Howard, and to Dumb Down Radio & TV to become a slave to the Ratings Gods.
Here in WA there is NO local programming on 720 after 6pm Weeknights and on the weekends, especially on Sunday the Evening national programs are on a 2 hour delay so listeners in WA can’t participate (Weeknights at least they beam in Tony Delroy & Trevor Chappell in live).
But back to the original topic, 720 Breakfast Announcer here is the Former Liberal Member for Stirling, Eoin Cameron, who has suddenly become a Climate Change convert and has started doing segments on Today Tonight.
Bet Howard won’t be too pleased with that
Yep. No doubt about it.
These poll figures are simply an artifact of TEH Labor-loving Galaxy Poll’s demonic mind control question methods.
Nothing to worry about here Howard lovers!
Order the Cold Duck for the election night celebrations and get ready to party like it’s 1954.
(apologies to Bushfire Bill)
Enough of this “Labor’s win is by no means certain…� rubbish.
I’m quite happy to call the election right now: Labor to win.
The reason? Work Choices will be the bedrock. That, and the general distrust of Howard, conscientiously built up of the past 11 years by none other than himself spell doom.
The latest Newspoll figures on IR were like a good squirt of Murine right into my tired, bloodshot eyes.
Those strongly opposed outnumbered those strongly in support of Work Choices by a factor of two-to-one. Not surprisingly, most of those strongly opposed were in the Labor camp. The observation that the Labor camp is well ahead of the government proves that the anti-Work Choices voters have defected to it. 60% of Labor voters were strongly against, while only 41% of Coalition supporters were strongly in favour; and the Labor voters were a far stronger base, 49% primary to 38% primary for the coalition. 60% of 49% is 29% of the community (not just Labor voters) strongly opposed. 41% of 38% is only 16% of the same community strongly in favour. The voters have sided with Labor because of Work Choices.
This is bedrock stuff. Work Choices acceptance can only get worse for the government in the lead-up to the election. Every IR horror story between now and then will be sheeted home to Work Choices. No doubt some of this will be unfairly attributed, but that is the bandwagon nature of mob response once they get those torches and pitchforks on their hands. There are no improvements to be made in Work Choices’ popularity out there in the electorate, only losses. While Work Choices remains unpopular (and that is a long term prospect) those defecting ex-Howard Battlers will remain with Labor. Their jobs, and the jobs of their children are fundamental to their lives. This is the last chance they have to see off the hated new industrial moonscape that Howard has created, for all the world like Morbius’s “Monster from the Id�, straight out of Forbidden Planet.
The bleatings of the righties concerning the Burke dinner, Rudd’s mum, supposed union control of Australia (how can 20% of workers - even if they wanted to - control Australia? It’s absurd!), unexpected Labor losses in minor, state rural seats… all those tiny minutae, those trivial talking points they keep on dredging up show the paucity of the Howard battle lines compared to the juggernaut of the anti-Work Choices forces. Howard can’t even muster enough enthusiasm from the Business Council to fund an off-the-books campaign in favour of it prior to the election.
The underlying distrust of just about anything Howard says out there adds to the reluctance of large slabs of the electorate to take Work Choices seriously. While “distrust� is not an issue in itself, it serves to eat away at the foundations of almost everything Howard tries in his vain attempts to get some traction with the voters on other issues.
Lately we have seen diverse issues come together under the banner of “distrust: Ken Henry’s speech the other day confirmed that the Water Plan was a cobbled-together mishmash scribbled out on the back of an envelope… just like we suspected it was. Brendan Nelson’s panic plan to buy useless fighter jets has exposed the rifts between the professional soldiery and the department that rides roughshod over it. The Hicks case, while generating a lot of heat on both sides of politics, has fallen in a heap. Nobody believes Hicks wasn’t abused during captivity. Nobody believes there wasn’t some kind of deal done, even Howard supporters. After six months boasting of his connection to Bush, Howard can hardly expect us to think the final resolution to Hicks was not his doing almost entirely, tailored to deliver maximum advantage. The $200 million gift to the illegal organised crime loggers of Indonesia and their crony protectors in the Indonesian government is already forgotten, but the stench of desperation remains. And then there is the broken promise on interest rates.
$10 billion here, $6 billion there, $200 million somewhere else, interest rates at 10 year highs, housing affordability at all time record lows. This is our money and out homes and livliehoods being flung about by a government desperate to dominate even one news cycle. When will it stop? When we are broke? Or when we vote them out of office and get on with our futures?
The farcical freak show of one government minister after another going under the wave of a government sponsored shame and smear campaign hatched to capture Rudd is a laughing stock. Talk about “own goals�! Nothing is better calculated to induce the sniggers of the public than a moralising wowser hoisted on his or her own petard, which is exactly what happened to Costello, Howard and Abbott over their much hyped (and bragged about) “Operation Destroy Rudd� antics. True, few will be specifically considering these disasters as they stand in the ballot box, pencil poised, but they will be in the background of enough voters’ minds as they realise they have a chance to get rid of Work Choices once and for all with a simple sequence of numerals written into square check-boxs on a ballot paper. But there will be enough of them to have the desired effect: the end of Howard and his divisive ways.
Forget the chicken giblets, forget going through the garbage cans in the back alleys looking for something, anything to wedge Rudd and Labor with, forget those little pieces of paper with names and issues scribbled on them that Glen and his mates move around on their desktops trying to find connections, talking points and proof of Howard’s alleged genius. It’s over. The Newspoll oracle has spoken. While the exact “voting intention� figures are arguable, the Work Choices figures are not. People are pissed-off, angry and scared of what will happen when we can no longer dig holes in the ground and flog off our continent tonne by tonne to the Chinese.
Nothing can improve the government’s position as long as Work Choices remains the central plank of their policy. It is hated by too many people, from all walks of life, in all socio-economic groups to survive the election. The rest - the defence fiascos, the Iraq debacle, the Hicks disgrace, the freebies handed out to anyone who puts a half-plausible case for a government subsidy, the middle class welfare bribes, interest rates and so on add to it, but Work Choices remains the issue that is going to lose Howard the election. It’s the rallying point for all the other disaffections people feel about this government. It’s a symbol of what can go wrong when uninhibited ideology meets untrammelled power. It’s a hangman’s noose for Howard and he knows it.
The beauty is that he’s too arrogant to admit the truth, and too stubborn to do anything about it.
Over the coming months expect panic, bad decisions, more leaks, defections, retirements from and in the Howard camp as they realise their Master is leading them down the road to oblivion. These coming disasters for the government will only make things worse in the Battlers’ eye, like a giant political feedback loop. By the time the election comes around voters will be queueing up at 8 o’clock outside of polling booths nationwide to rid the world of them, their wedges and their divisive “Us Against Them� wet dreams, once and for all.
It is time the ALP started talking a two-election stragety. That is a win-win plan (not the silly lose-win plan those being talked about.) There are two scenarios that could occur if they win the next election:
1. They thump the Liberals into the ground, and the control of the Senate is then held by the ALP with the Greens. The Liberals are a mess but have three years to rebuild and take 6 years before they even look like getting back into office.
2. They beat the Liberals (close or by a big margin), but the Liberals still control the Senate. The Liberals are a mess but major legalisation (WorkChoice half-rollback and some sort of carbon trading scheme) is not able to pass. Double Dissolution time in 14 months time. Complete and total wipe out of Liberals and the party comes apart at the seams. ALP still does not have a majority in Senate (Balance of power is now held by 13 Greens!) but the more liberal of what was the Liberals also have the ability to pass legisation and in order to remain relevant will do so much to the disgust of the hard wing of the now dead Liberal party. The conservative side takes 12 years to rebuild itself into a new fighting force.
I think the second scenario would have its advantages for the ALP as well as the Greens. For ALP, it would mean staying in power for 15 years at least (provided they didn’t muck things up too much.) For Greens, they could become the effective opposition, if not in name.
The first scenarion has problems in that a whopping win in one election can result in candidates being elected that were not expected to win (like Pauline Hanson was the Liberal candidate in 1996 in Oxley that was not expected to fall).
So in conclusion, a massive win might not be the best thing for the either party on the “Left”. (As sweet as it would be).
B.S. Fairman - Why should the ALP start talking about a two-election strategy? They are pounding the Libs in the polls (not that polls are really that accurate this far out) and have them on the run on any number of issues.
Frank says “I can’t wait to see what Shamaham produces when Newspoll comes out.�
I realise this is fatuous, and we’ll see in a few hours anyway, but it’s fun. If the polls show the same Howard wipeout, as I imagine they will, Shanahan (and his sidekick the Poisoned Dwarf Milne) will run the following lines.
First, insist that the full effects of the budget, nip and tuck job on WorkChoices, and Churchillian action on the Aboriginal Problem, have yet to show up. Rudd, you see, is a flash in the pan fad - any time soon the voters will sober up and realise just how much they have to thank Honest John for.
Second, insist that the polls themselves are suspect - I expect to read the words ’soft Labor vote’ frequently, together with some notion that the voters being polled are sneakily saying they’ll vote Labor just to fox us, while intending to vote for the Man of Steel all along.
You’ll know they’ve really given the game away if they avoid discussion of the polls altogether.
Hal9000 is on the money.
St Margaret a week is a long time in politics. This transcript from your link has to be one of the funniest political interviews ever. What a hoot!
Oh Bugger! No Newspoll sneak preview on Lateline!
Wow, I just read that interview that St Margaret and steve linked to. What a shocker!
Oh yes, read the transcript.
It’s a train wreck.
Tony Abbott channels Dr Mengele.
I love this bit:
The Mad Monk has lost it
Methinks Ratty is preaching to the converted here.
The country’s booming economy was at stake if unfair dismissal laws were reimposed and Australian workplace agreements removed, he warned the dinner gathering of 500 small business leaders.
“If we repeal our industrial relations laws, which will happen if there is a change of government… it will be the first time in a generation that this country has turned its back on a major economic reform,” Mr Howard said.
“That will send a signal to the rest of the world, that will send a signal to the entrepreneurs and the investors in this country, that we have lost our nerve.
“Once you lose your nerve, you lose confidence. If you as a company lose your nerve, you lose customers and you lose investment
I’m not sure if everyone commenting on this thread realised that the Galaxy questions are in the pdf file to which I linked in the post.
From the Govt Gazette, but strangely no Newspoll.
During the past 10 nights, Howard has won the battle of the prime-time television news bulletins, the first time he has achieved such a feat since Rudd became Opposition Leader. This is no longer a tired Prime Minister playing catch-up on the politics of the day. The Coalition needed a circuit-breaker, mind you.
Matt Price carpets the PM in his article. He basically says the same thing that people have been saying here. That is, that the electorate aren’t buying the spin anymore and that Howard is facing an uphill battle to win them back. [link]
That is a strange article from Steve Lewis. You have to wonder whether some of these people are living in the same country.
Price writes:
You could quibble about the wording, and it’s possible that the answer is “both”, but to deny that there is a real sentiment among the electorate that Howard does act largely for self-interested and self-serving reasons is just silly.
Mark, I don’t think that Price is arguing that the poll result came about because of the wording of the question. Is that what you are suggesting? My reading of his article was that he thought that the numbers pretty clearly demonstrate that a large proportion of the electorate aren’t willing to give Howard the benefit of the doubt.
You can do more than quibble about the wording of the question, Mark. It is loaded and therefore renders the survey result invalid. There may be a real sentiment among the electorate that Howard does act largely for self-interested and self-serving reasons but surveys should be designed to test the degree of of that sentiment and therefore provide useful information rather than be falsely structured to produce that conclusion.
Despite a decades old practice of releasing such surveys under freedom of information laws, the Government has blocked access to 2005 research on ads promoting Work Choices on the grounds that releasing the material is contrary to the public interest.
Hmm, I wonder if the Govt Gazette did the FOI whether Ratty would release to them ?
THey couldn’t scare the “Battlers” with Indigines or the Unions, so Ratty is going with the old favourite - “Radical Muslim Clerics.
They include Sheik Bilal Dannoun, Melbourne-based Mohammed Omran and Harun Mehicivic; Sydney’s Abdul Salam Mohammed Zoud, Hatim Eissa, Khaled Eissa and Feiz Mohammed and Canberra’s Mohammed Swaiti.
Frank, what is your point? The article you link to is sourced from AAP and makes no mention of the Prime Minister at all. Are you saying that the AAP article is not true and that there are no Muslim preachers in Australia who are preaching fundamentalist messages and propagating the Wahabi ideology?
GregM,
We all know The Australian is Ratty’s Cheer Squad and this story has only appeared on News Ltd websites. Therefore it is not surprising that Ratty, using unamed “National Security Sources” would be selectively leak this story in order to evoke fear in the wake of recent events overseas.
Remember in Ratty’s World - Muslims = Terrorists.
It’s an AAP story so it’s open for any other newspaper, TV or radio station to run it if they want to.
Your reasoning is weird and paranoid.
You obviously can’t read this bit
Note the emphasis on the Newspaper’s name. Plus it has NOT appeared on any other news site.
Stop defending Ratty
Has it occurred to you that the activities of fundamentalist Muslim preachers which may encourage susceptible members of their congregations to violent or anti-social acts is a legitimate matter of public interest irrespective of who is Prime Minister or does your tunnel vision only allow you to see all that happens in the world through the narrow prism of John Howard’s cunning machinations?
God knows what you’d make of a video clip showing Howard saying “Nice day, isn’t it?” to someone at some function he was attending. You’d probably see that as damning evidence of him denying climate change.
You obviously don’t get it - it’s the Timing of the article. Howard Govt suffers badly in Opinion Poll. Then all of a sudden this report comes out naming unamed security sources - plus the fact this article only appears in the News Ltd Media, who are the main supporters of the Howard Govt.
It all sounds a bit suss to me.
First no Morgan poll and now no Newspoll.Will the next Neilsen poll appear?
What is going on? No Morgan Poll on Friday, followed by no Newspoll on Tuesday. The anti Howard tide seems to be not for public viewing all of a sudden There’s no opinion pieces showing Newspoll proves what a genenius Howard or Captain Brough have proved to be either. Must be seriously bad news for the coalition if the poll is too scary to print.
There must be some very big rabbits to pulled out of the hat between now and Neilsen time.The only really big one with any hope of success is the repeal of WorkChoices.Even withdrawing troops from Iraq would not have any effect.Steve mate, you are right,the polls must be seriously bad for Ratty.
On the Galaxy question, if it was loaded it wasn’t because of the ‘election year’ side of the question. Rather the ‘because he really cares’ side was ill-thought out.
The government has NEVER tried to pitch itself as a ‘government that cares’. Quite the contrary: it’s been hard-nosed, tough, pragmatic, respected etc, but never caring. (Ditto, if Howard thought the intervention were marketable on that basis he is desperate. But he didn’t: the intervention was announced with a flurry of ‘police’, ‘troops’, ‘emergency’ and ‘don’t demand more money’ rhetoric. Any community building aspects of it have been carefully sublimated.)
Had Galaxy asked: ‘Did the govt act because it is an election year, or because indigenous communities need to be disciplined?’ the result might have been reversed.
I think the point about the article warning of a “homegrown muslim threat” is that the report it is based on was fully funded by Phillips Ruddock’s department. Call me suspicous but the fact that Mick Keelty poured cold water on it straight away, and he wasn’t on his own, tells me Ruddock may have got the result he was after rather than the true picture of what is going on. Thats not to say that this government would ever be that dishonest or decietful enough to raise the issue of terrorism to further their political aims.
Gusface, you’ve made this Old China blush. No need for apologies.
Did I really write that? It seems to hold up fairly well, actually.
A few nips and tucks here and there and it’s fairly descriptive of the current situation: trust is not a specific issue, but it underlies all other issues.
The killer indicator all those months ago was the anti-WorkChoices number. All else flowed from that. I just can’t see how anyone is going to willingly vote to reduce their own wages and conditions… not for themselves, not for their bosses and certainly not for the good of The Economy. No matter what the economists’ tables say, those who are suffering from the IR monster will not aquiesce to their own downgrading in the workplace.
This is not to say that everyone is suffering. There are undoubtedly winners, but only at the expense of the losers that WorkChoices has created. It seemed apparent from that long-past Newspoll that “losers” far outweighted “winners”. And that was Howard’s problem, one he created himself.
On the polls, it occurred to me that possibly the Morgan numbers were so (hesitates to use the new buzzword) “counterintuitive” that even Gary thought maybe something had gone wrong. Maybe the same thing for Newspoll (although there are school holidays about).
Anyway, what we have is a Galaxy, standing alone, shining the cold light of day upon Howard like a surgeon’s lamp before open heart surgery… except they didn’t find a heart.
Hmmm… must be something else that’s the problem.
Forget the military - send in Madame Lash, immediately!
Touche Gummo, but you know anything X-rated is out (I do hope the troops know that they better stick to Betty Grable pin-ups, or we’ll have another Liddy Clarke affair).
But by ‘discipline’ I was meant Foucault rather than Freud.
Interesting response to a question re Newspoll at Matt Price’s blog over at The Government Gazette. Is he serious?
Graeme,
I got a bit carried away with the Madame Lash idea - the results are here.
Yup. You do have tunnel vision. The polls have been bad for Howard for all of this year. Does this mean, as your logic suggests, that every report on matters that might be of concern/interest to the electorate has been planted by the Evil One or his minions to divert their attention from his flagging popularity?
It is beyond your imagination, it appears, to consider that in this globalised age the recent failed bombings in Britain might be reason enough for The Australian to look for for a bit of copy to pitch for a local angle.
I look forward to you rushing to post, with puppy-like enthusiasm, your opinion that this morning’s arrest at Brisbane Airport has in fact nothing to do with the events in the UK but is, rather, solely manufactured by the Howard Government, through his cadaverous acolyte Ruddock, to divert people from the Beelzebub of Kirribilli’s flagging popularity. And that the AFP is in on it too.
What policy would that be?
If it is beyond 8% difference (my spies tell me it showed 58-42) then the Howard recovery team will not publish it
Something about the public not knowing whats good for them and only the born to rule and masterclass shall decide whose poll we will see LOL
That would have to be the very humane policy of minimising the likelihood that RWDBs would choke on their camo-coloured cornflakes, while reading the Volkischer Beobachter down in
their mother’s basementthe Freedom Fighters’ Command Centre.There will be a Morgan poll next week.
Frank Calabrese I don’t normally read anything Crusader Abbott says, he’s a maniac. Period.
Well I looked on the Newspoll website last night and all they had was a poxy old poll on Queensland State voting intentions.
Have the results been pulled, or what? Because if they’ve been pulled, what on earth does that say about Newspoll? This is starting to sound like real ‘House of Cards’ stuff…
I wonder what other half-arsed wedge ideas the Rodent has in store? Glad to see this mining sector land-grab tanking.
PS All quiet in Dili - we’ll see how quiet it stays after the election results are out! Looks like 2-3% swing back to Fretilin, but not enough to prevent a Xanana CNRT-led coalition….
LE in ET
Lefty, I hope that you can spare the time to write a detailed post on what is happening in ET. Your past posts on the subject have been a wonderful source of information and insight.
Cheers Greg, will do something soon…. Bit busy writing under real name at present!