From today’s Crikey email:
The long running federal police investigation into the affairs of several Liberal MPs isn’t the only incipient disaster for John Howard in Queensland. As if he needs more headaches from a state where he has to hang on to seats in the face of the Rudd/Swan home town onslaught, the charming combination of the toxic factional politics of the state Libs and the ever fractious Coalition relationship with the Nats has lobbed up another time bomb.
The Courier-Mail has been reporting Opposition Leader Jeff Seeney’s half-hearted denials that he’s trying to oust his hapless Liberal counterpart, Bruce Flegg. The Nats have always blamed Flegg for losing the state election last year. There’s a lot of truth in that, as his error prone performance destroyed the Liberal vote within a few days of the election being announced. But it’s also a mightily convenient excuse for the Nats to absolve themselves from blame for their own very mediocre performance, which saw large swings to Labor recorded in quite a few of their regional and rural seats, swings Rudd Labor will be hoping to capitalise on.
Apparently Seeney has been conspiring with disaffected Liberal MPs to move against Flegg. In a caucus of eight, there are few of the other seven MPs who aren’t leader who don’t carry a leadership baton around.
In more than one sense, it’s hard to see what Seeney’s problem is. Flegg rolled over for him, quite disgracefully, by agreeing that Seeney would be the Premier after the next election even if the Libs won more seats, thus making such an eventuality almost certainly moot. Flegg is also one of the few Opposition MPs to have any discernible media presence. Seeney may believe that Flegg is not making an impact on the Beattie government, but neither is he. And of the rest of his front bench, Nationals Deputy Fiona Simpson has only been noteworthy this year for stories complaining about Seeney and orchestrating a protest involving tying red bras to Parliament’s fence.
The Liberal frontbenchers are never heard from, presumably too busy with factional infighting to actually take the fight up to Labor.
The move against Flegg has apparently been called off due to concerns that disunity would damage Howard’s chances. Apparently the state Libs haven’t noticed that talking about disunity all over the pages of the press might also be damaging. Gary Hardgrave, federal member for Moreton, reportedly believes that Flegg is dragging his own chances down. Hardgrave might do better to worry about the impact of his dumping from the Ministry and the federal police investigation.
The state Libs have already delivered the Santo Santoro disaster to Howard this year. They have form in squabbling over the fruits of defeat even before an election has been lost. Howard had better hope this dynamic isn’t playing out again.
Add this one to the list.
And there’s the other article at Crikey about the indiginous affairs minister diverting cash from Northern Territory Aboroginals into his own electorate…………………….
I’ve heard, from admittedly vague sources, that the fed police investigation into printing rorts is a result of the Qld Libs being broke. The party was billing federal members for printing / posters etc that the party never did, to raise some much needed funds directly from the taxpayer.
Steve/Granny, I just knew it, when the Captain was/is all about “non political saving the children’ immediately one smells a Rat. I assume that a broad media will pass this on to the general public, in full?.
Six months from now, consider: Campbell Newman becomes the most senior Liberal in the country, the Prime Minister and the Treasurer are both Queenslanders and the state has a new Premier.
The centre of gravity will shift away from Seeney pretty damn quickly. The business community will want to ingratiate itself with the new governments, including a few donations to the ALP. Brisbane will have a focus upon it that Sir Joh could only have dreamed of. The thirty-year lock Sydney has on the PM/Treasurer (less a few months in 1991) will be broken and Melbourne’s decline will continue, the mineral boom notwithstanding.
There will be a number of un- and under-employed Liberal MPs and staffers who will have decided quite like politics and are not prepared to let a little thing like the going-out of the tide disrupt them. They’ll decide that it’s easier to take on sitting Liberal State MPs, sitting State MPs from the Labor Party in marginal seats and even independents or Nats in State politics rather than try, try again to get back to Canberra. Sure, most of them will retire, but many won’t. To committed and ambitious Liberals the states offer the political equivalent of Backyard Blitz.
Keep in mind that the Nats will have something of an identity crisis at this point. There are 12 Nats in the House and 3 in the Senate: six months from now their House representation will be in single digits and their ability to deliver much diminished. When the Coalition were last in Opposition they at least had Ian Sinclair to hold things together and Tim Fischer to pull them through. Seeney will attempt to fill this void in Queensland but you can’t fill one void with another. He’ll overreach himself, he’s not ready for prime time.
At the next State election in Queensland (2009/10?) Anna Bligh should be returned, but with a reduced majority and facing an Opposition that is slightly more hungry and a bit more focused than currently. Campbell Newman will have been Lord Mayor for a while and will be looking for a new challenge. Seeney, meanwhile, will be a shell of what he is today – whether the Nats keep him on is another matter, but something suggests he’s brittle.
Thinking about it, are these people either so stupid or so arrogant that with the ‘net , shifty moves like this aren’t noticed, applies to Marks drawing attention to us of the base that seems to be the norm in the Rodents beloved party.
OT, but..
I was reading about the MySpace pollies section they were spruiking today so went to have a look and found this video
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&VideoID=10319431
Polly, that was funny, I had a good laugh, so thanks. ( I’m on dial up so took a while to get it), No wonder he wants to claw his way back, look at me, takes on a whole new meaning . What a goose.
Andrew, I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal that Campbell Newman will be re-elected in March.
On Seeney:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22060247-5007200,00.html
“The thirty-year lock Sydney has on the PM/Treasurer (less a few months in 1991)”
In fact, just three weeks in December 1991, in the dying days of Hawke PM, when John Kerin imploded as Treasurer and Ralph Willis took his place.
I do think Andrews observations are quite astute nonetheless.
Grannyanny, eh?
A perfect example why always been partial to older women.
Michelle Grattan’s Age article was good journalism concerning a serious issue, not tabloid junk. So why has it been treated the way it has by the media today?
NO mention on SBS or ABC news tonight?
NOTHING on 730 report?
Then to Tony Jones and Durkin; Jones boasting how the ABC, contrary to the opinions of some viewers, doesn’t fudge hard news or report tendentiously. This from the man who participated in the coopted Latteline Aboriginal Settlements beat-up last year on behalf of Bruff and Howard, that operated as interference run,setting the scene for the “Emergency” putsch of a fortnight ago!
On to
Latteline and once again avoidance of the Bruff rort from the show that bought us melopsychodramatic “save the little children”.
Personally, I think voters are so thick they won’t be able to distinguish between the sad reactive abuses of drunken, brutalised and alienated aboriginal males and the sly and premeditated abuse of a street-wise minister whose abuse is no less real in consisting of robbing the funds for children’s futures ( poverty and its suffering IS abuse, if suffering is the essence of abuse?? ).
Surely his enjoyment, like the paedophile, comes at the expense of the pleasure of pulling a fast one as much as the suffering of his victims?
Just a Flesh Wound.
Kim, I wouldn’t say that March is six months from now – more like eight months. All the more reason why he’d look at a shift to state politics.
Spiros, I stand corrected.
Thank you sublime cowgirl.
Is Seeney one of those nats who doesn’t give a shit about Brisbane or the Gold Coast? What’s his deputy like?
Promoted to National Disaster?
I think Kim is referring to Newman’s chances of re-election as Mayor – the eletion is in March (fixed term).
Flegg is safe much to Seeney’s chagrin. The factional alignment of the state Liberal caucus is too messy for a fight at the moment. That is not to say that people are happy with Flegg – far from it. The problem is that there is currently no viable alternative. Langbroek is a Santoro man which puts him in a factional minority. He also holds some pretty extreme views on some sensitive topics which if aired from the position of parliamentary leader would be catastrophic to the Brisbane Liberal vote. The fact that he is from the Gold Coast doesn’t help either. Tim Nicholls is certainly ambitious but suffers from an unfortunate combination of laziness and a big mouth at the wrong times. Oh and he is also a Santoro person which puts him in a faction of three in a parliamentary caucus of 8. McArdle would be the best choice on merit but he isn’t a Brisbane MP and his seat margin is quite perilous. He has also sworn loyalty to Flegg for the forseeable future. Stuckey would be the only other alternative. Whilst she is fairly unaligned, her competency is an issue at this stage.
This story was fed by Seeney’s office as a smokescreen against a much larger problem on his horizon. After the Federal election watch the Nat parliament division move into an all-in brawl. Rob Messenger probably should win on merit but I think Springborg may again emerge as a consensus compromise candidate.