A very subdued response from the Nostradamus of psephology, the Government Gazette, to the release of cumulative Newspoll data broken down state by state and by age, location and gender. Polling interpretation wizard Shanahan completely fails to say anything about what the swing in each state would do to the number of coalition seats. Not so, his adversaries in the dreaded “online news commentariat”, who have evidently survived the Government Gazette’s attempt to “go” them and have returned undaunted from their leftie academic redoubts to point out the implications for seats in each state (Farmer at Crikey - Bennelong gone, Kooyong now marginal and Possums Pollytics). I’ll suggest people ponder the tables Farmer has constructed using the Mackerras Pendulum, which give Labor 89 seats and the Coalition 42. Since the GG has more or less admitted their Newspoll “analysis” has as its main purpose influencing the mood and dynamic among pollies and other press gallery media types, let’s hope the Preferred PM Theorem puts paid quickly to any rumblings (or mad panic) in Liberal ranks and any momentum towards Dollar Sweetie, and sends the message that the Dear Leader has everything under control. Really.
Ps: Morgan numbers out today as well. Details at The Poll Bludger.
Graph courtesy of Possums Pollytics:
And just for the completists: last figures I saw for Tas (June) had the LNP heading for the mother of all electoral rogerings at 65-35.
Things are so freakin bad down there for Team Rodent, I think we can safely saw Rudd needs 14 seats, not 16.
http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/Federal%20Voting%20Intentions%20June%202007%20Commissioned%20by%20The%20Launceston%20Examiner.pdf
As I said to Possum, that graph is based on the Jan-Mar figures, not the latest Apr-Jun numbers.
Doesn’t change the story much: SA has come back to earth somewhat (…the 17.2 primary swing was incredibly big), but NSW has blown out by 4 points.
An accurate headline for the story. How unlike the Aus.
Thanks, EconoMan, I was aware of that, but it does make a startling visual aid!
Why hasn’t the Shillster with all the great connections and fascinating insights (or anyone else at the GG for that matter) reported on this?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22063805-5001021,00.html
I see this post is getting hits from the domain newsltd.com.au
Just sayin…
The pendulum makes interesting reading. Here’s a list of the current ministers (non-senate), and what the pendulum predicts:
Howard (Lib, Bennelong) - out
Anderson (Nat, Gwydir) - in
Costello (Lib, Higgins) - out
Vaile (Nat, Lyne) - in
Downer (Lib, Mayo) - in
Abbott (Lib, Warringah) - out
Ruddock (Lib, Berowra) - in
Truss (Nat, Wide Bay) - in
Nelson (Lib, Bradfield) - in
Macfarlane (Lib, Groom) - in
Andrews (Lib, Menzies) - in
Lloyd (Lib, Robertson) - out
Brough (Lib, Longman) - out
Vale (Lib, Hughes) - out
Bishop (Lib, Curtin) - in
Hardgrave (Lib, Moreton) - out
McGauran (Nat, Gippsland) - in
Hockey (Lib, North Sydney) - out
Bailey (Lib, McEwen) - out
Looks like it might be Downer v Ruddock for the title of opposition leader.
Any news omn what’s happened to Tim at blogocracy?
Dang. Forgot:
Turnbull (Lib, Wentworth) - out
SJ, Actually Anderson’s an ex Minister and isn’t recontesting his seat.
Sorry to be a pedant, but a few of the numbers look odd, to say the least. If the primary vote swing is 10.4%, how can both males and females only have swung 8%? Is there a sex out there other than those two who have swung a lot more than this?
There appear to be other problems, but this seems the most obvious.
I am not doubting the overall trend, but this just looks very odd.
I’ll refer you to Possum, Andrew - he constructed the table. The raw data can be found by following the link in the post.
Also, SJ, Hardgrave is also an ex-Minister.
That problem Andrew comes down to the Newspoll table of primary vote for Labor at the last election.
Total: 37.6
Male: 40
Female: 39
Notice how the total is exact, based on actual votes, but the gender numbers are rounded. That’s because they come from exit polls or post election surveys (not sure which).
Kim, yeah, sorry, I looked up an old list.
This looks pretty ugly for the Libs. SA has settled down a little bit, but on these figures, several Victorian seats would be taken by Labor, which I had initially thought very unlikely.
Maybe in the interests of public health, the election should just be called off. I mean, imagine the mass suicides of card-carrying Liberals if the jewels in the crown, Wentworth and Kooyong, were to be stolen by some union-sympathising commoner.
On reflection, it might be best to omit the table, since it’s Possum’s and he’s able to answer questions about it, and I’m not really. So I’ve modified the post.
Still, SJ, it makes for an interesting thought experiment - Downer or Abbott as Liberal leader?
Can’t be Abbott. The pendulum has him out.
Kim, I’ve fixed my formally rogered graph up if you want some colour back.
Makes you wonder how I missed that GREAT WHOPPING FIELD marked NEW at the bottom of my excel sheet.If I keep this up, I’ll walk into a job at The Oz
grumble….grumble
Andrew, I think you’re forgetting the very powerful hermaphrodite voting bloc.
Abbott out? Don’t tease me SJ.
Cool, thanks, Possum - new graph uploaded.
I missed Abbott out. So it’s Downer v. Bishop!
Patrickg,
Even with the new graph it looks like we have a powerful group of hermaphrodites out there, the vast majority of whom vote Labor. Maybe someone on the Coalition front bench needs to go a **** themselves to appeal to this large potential constituency.
Andrew, see here.
And Kim, IMO it would be Nelson vs Bishop. The only way Downer got it, is if no one else wanted it.
Come to think, that’s fairly plausible cuz they wouldn’t be a chance until 2016 at least.
Fear not all, we are safe from the androgynous hoards!
The reason some of the categories are a bit out (by a point or so) for things like Male/Female breakdown is simply because we dont have the results for them from the last election (obviously) and have to use the closest indicators from the surveys.
Economan,
I did see that - but there are plenty of statistical tools to adjust for that, particularly as it is a patent absurdity. A simple re-base to achieve alignment between the “hard” (vote) number and the soft (polling) number would be sufficient for present purposes.
The numbers would then (approx) look like this:
Total: 37.6
Male: 38
Female: 37
(re-based)
This, in itself, though shows a possible error in these polls - people were more likely to admit to voting Labor than voting for the Coalition.
Go say hi to Tim at RTS
It’s a plausible re-base, but still a guess. Perhaps it’s best to just note we can’t directly compare the gender and age splits (based on survey or poll data) with actual vote results (total or by region).
On possible error, a couple of things. First, if it’s based on a newspoll closest to the election (very plausible) then it’s within the error margin. Plus, as we’re always told, votes can change between a poll and election day. So there isn’t necessarily any ‘error’.
Second, if it’s based on exit polls (less likely), then research suggests people are more likely to answer they voted for the winner, rather than the loser. These results go against that (one of the reasons why I think it an unlikely source). And remember again, there would be sample error in exit polls too.
It’s not the hermaphrodite voting bloc you’ve not accounted for… it’s the emo kids who’ve made it to 18.
No… wait. There aren’t that many.
*ahem* carry on.
That’s not a pendulum of swinging seats. More like a pandemonium!
The problem the coalition have is that Costello will cost them more votes than Howard and there is no one else. So they are stuck with Howard who should at least [if they lose] keep the loses to a minimum.
One dimenisional Costello Yellow can’t handle it out front because among other things he cant resist the arrogant name calling like yesterday, referring to Rudd as high ignorance.
But it is still a long way to go.. 18th January?
The Liberal leadership cauldron must be building up a head of steam. Apart from Wilson Tuckey, the Libs have kept a lid on it. However, these latest polls represent a consolidation of the Labor vote in the mid to high 50s. To do nothing is accepting the impending massacre. Time for generational change.
When will Tony tell Howard the gig is up!
Nothing to worry about here, Coalition supporters.
This panic was caused by discovery that Mr Howard had removed some fuel tanks from this very plane so that he could transport his entire Don Bradman memorabilia collection with him wherever he travelled.
Mr Howard claims that a mere sniff of the brilliantine on the Famous Baggy Green reminds him about the quality of genuine leadership.
Completely OT, but I just heard an ABC news report about “The biggest takover deal in the history of miming.”
Turns out it was mining. Pity.
From the Government it’s: “DeBeer, DeBeer, DeBeer, DeBeer, That’s all folks….”
Cue Loony Tunes theme.
swordfishtrombone - no, not many emos just reaching 18, but please consider. The last election was 2004. The inclusion ages for new voters is now 18 - 22 years.
Do the stats via ABS of constituents in that age spread. Then figure the viewpoint. JJJ on radio, old bloke Howard, the bad Bushies over there, green vs conservative issues at school, middle eastern friends at school who aren’t terrorists, none of them listen to shock jocks, a great many are totally consumer focused and live in over-encumbered McMansions with their parents in the under resourced outer suburbs.
They aren’t worried about the dry education issues because they have recently left school, no worries about health because they are healthy, semantics about the tax rip-off is just another government imposed hurdle. Unattainable home ownership is the fault of some baldy old bloke who is on TV - usually ABC. Don’t read the papers.
There may not be a conscious default to Labor, but there is certainly a conscious default against ratty and the values
Errr… it was just a bad joke about androgyny.
Peace.
Should it not be.. Spin ON this Shanahan
If Howard, Costello, Abbott, Brough, and Hockey all went, I would be in manic ecstasy for about a month.
And what the hell is an ‘emos’?
(Am I showing my age with that question?)
Emos.
Oh, I see. The latest incarnation of fucked up, alientated yoof. Though the self-harm and suicide bit is genuinely worrying.
So I was showing my age then.
Hilker - yes, but it was ever so. I recall primary school girls in 1956 carving ‘elvis’ into their arms, complete with ink (from our desk inkwells). The only difference now is that they’ve acquired a trendy name ‘emo’ and a new subset of wanker/social workers who are expert in their treatment.
The cure is growing up - usually pregnancy (ever so) as few are males, and those pillowbiters, ie of no relevance to man nor beast.