Comments on: Spin this, Shanahan!

By: amphibious

amphibious — Sun, 15 Jul 2007 10:04:27 +0000

Hilker - yes, but it was ever so. I recall primary school girls in 1956 carving ‘elvis’ into their arms, complete with ink (from our desk inkwells). The only difference now is that they’ve acquired a trendy name ‘emo’ and a new subset of wanker/social workers who are expert in their treatment.
The cure is growing up - usually pregnancy (ever so) as few are males, and those pillowbiters, ie of no relevance to man nor beast.

By: Hilker

Hilker — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 08:28:41 +0000

Oh, I see. The latest incarnation of fucked up, alientated yoof. Though the self-harm and suicide bit is genuinely worrying.

So I was showing my age then.

By: Gummo Trotsky

Gummo Trotsky — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 08:18:15 +0000

Emos.

By: Hilker

Hilker — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 08:04:55 +0000

And what the hell is an ‘emos’?

(Am I showing my age with that question?)

By: Hilker

Hilker — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 08:01:06 +0000

If Howard, Costello, Abbott, Brough, and Hockey all went, I would be in manic ecstasy for about a month.

By: luckyPhil

luckyPhil — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 01:59:38 +0000

Should it not be.. Spin ON this Shanahan

By: sw0rdfishtrombone

sw0rdfishtrombone — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 01:48:41 +0000

Errr… it was just a bad joke about androgyny.
Peace.

By: mark (not B)

mark (not B) — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 14:16:19 +0000

swordfishtrombone - no, not many emos just reaching 18, but please consider. The last election was 2004. The inclusion ages for new voters is now 18 - 22 years.
Do the stats via ABS of constituents in that age spread. Then figure the viewpoint. JJJ on radio, old bloke Howard, the bad Bushies over there, green vs conservative issues at school, middle eastern friends at school who aren’t terrorists, none of them listen to shock jocks, a great many are totally consumer focused and live in over-encumbered McMansions with their parents in the under resourced outer suburbs.
They aren’t worried about the dry education issues because they have recently left school, no worries about health because they are healthy, semantics about the tax rip-off is just another government imposed hurdle. Unattainable home ownership is the fault of some baldy old bloke who is on TV - usually ABC. Don’t read the papers.
There may not be a conscious default to Labor, but there is certainly a conscious default against ratty and the values

By: Evan

Evan — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 10:13:46 +0000

From the Government it’s: “DeBeer, DeBeer, DeBeer, DeBeer, That’s all folks….”

Cue Loony Tunes theme.

By: Christine Keeler

Christine Keeler — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 09:19:46 +0000

Completely OT, but I just heard an ABC news report about “The biggest takover deal in the history of miming.”

Turns out it was mining. Pity.

By: Katz

Katz — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 08:54:57 +0000

“There has been panic going on at the sharp end of the plane,�? one Liberal source said.

Nothing to worry about here, Coalition supporters.

This panic was caused by discovery that Mr Howard had removed some fuel tanks from this very plane so that he could transport his entire Don Bradman memorabilia collection with him wherever he travelled.

Mr Howard claims that a mere sniff of the brilliantine on the Famous Baggy Green reminds him about the quality of genuine leadership.

By: Greensborough Growler

Greensborough Growler — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 08:30:28 +0000

The Liberal leadership cauldron must be building up a head of steam. Apart from Wilson Tuckey, the Libs have kept a lid on it. However, these latest polls represent a consolidation of the Labor vote in the mid to high 50s. To do nothing is accepting the impending massacre. Time for generational change.

When will Tony tell Howard the gig is up!

By: Kina

Kina — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:29:45 +0000

The problem the coalition have is that Costello will cost them more votes than Howard and there is no one else. So they are stuck with Howard who should at least [if they lose] keep the loses to a minimum.

One dimenisional Costello Yellow can’t handle it out front because among other things he cant resist the arrogant name calling like yesterday, referring to Rudd as high ignorance.

But it is still a long way to go.. 18th January?

By: Greensborough Growler

Greensborough Growler — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:26:06 +0000

That’s not a pendulum of swinging seats. More like a pandemonium!

By: sw0rdfishtrombone

sw0rdfishtrombone — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:19:21 +0000

It’s not the hermaphrodite voting bloc you’ve not accounted for… it’s the emo kids who’ve made it to 18.

No… wait. There aren’t that many.

*ahem* carry on.

By: EconoMan

EconoMan — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 06:51:26 +0000

It’s a plausible re-base, but still a guess. Perhaps it’s best to just note we can’t directly compare the gender and age splits (based on survey or poll data) with actual vote results (total or by region).

On possible error, a couple of things. First, if it’s based on a newspoll closest to the election (very plausible) then it’s within the error margin. Plus, as we’re always told, votes can change between a poll and election day. So there isn’t necessarily any ‘error’.

Second, if it’s based on exit polls (less likely), then research suggests people are more likely to answer they voted for the winner, rather than the loser. These results go against that (one of the reasons why I think it an unlikely source). And remember again, there would be sample error in exit polls too.

By: Lyn

Lyn — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 06:43:23 +0000

Go say hi to Tim at RTS

By: Andrew Reynolds

Andrew Reynolds — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 06:17:14 +0000

Economan,
I did see that - but there are plenty of statistical tools to adjust for that, particularly as it is a patent absurdity. A simple re-base to achieve alignment between the “hard” (vote) number and the soft (polling) number would be sufficient for present purposes.
The numbers would then (approx) look like this:
Total: 37.6
Male: 38
Female: 37
(re-based)
This, in itself, though shows a possible error in these polls - people were more likely to admit to voting Labor than voting for the Coalition.

By: Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 06:14:34 +0000

Fear not all, we are safe from the androgynous hoards!

The reason some of the categories are a bit out (by a point or so) for things like Male/Female breakdown is simply because we dont have the results for them from the last election (obviously) and have to use the closest indicators from the surveys.

By: EconoMan

EconoMan — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 06:08:35 +0000

Andrew, see here.

And Kim, IMO it would be Nelson vs Bishop. The only way Downer got it, is if no one else wanted it.

Come to think, that’s fairly plausible cuz they wouldn’t be a chance until 2016 at least.