Facebook, Myspace and Politics (and the polls)

Myspace set up its impact channel last week. I’m inclined to agree with Andrew Bartlett when he writes:

Something new isn’t going to work just because it’s new – at least not beyond the initial novelty value. It will only work if it’s useful and meaningful for the people it’s aimed at. I’ve seen regular articles appear in the mainstream media for years now, talking about how blogging will be the next weapon in Australian politics, and how savvy politicians are already turning to it, etc etc. Despite that, until Labor Senator Mark Bishop started one up a couple of months ago, I hadn’t seen another effort at a genuine blog by a federal politician in the three years since I started this one. It doesn’t make me cooler than any other politician, just because I’ve had a blog for so long. Rather, it probably shows that it’s actually not a terribly valuable political tool (at least for politicians wanting to win votes), because otherwise plenty of others would be doing it.

It is hard to resist pointing to the grand total of 8 friends that the exciting Howard Government myspace has compared to the 5204 Kevin Rudd has. Or to resist remarking on the noise pollution you get from Joe Hockey’s myspace, and the visual pollution at Malcolm Turnbull’s profile. A cursory comparison suggests the most informative profiles belong to Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle from The Greens, and Andrew Bartlett. Possibly the minor parties have to try harder with alternative channels of communication to the MSM.

Meanwhile, over at Facebook, I’ve resisted the urge to join Kevin Rudd’s friends, but I did join the group Don’t f*ck it up, Kevin which kinda sums up my views aptly.

Though if you look at what’s happening not just in marginal but in safe Coalition seats, as Possums Pollytics reports here, it’s getting pretty difficult to see how he could.

As Possum also writes:

The swing away from Coalition in the safe government seats has been 11.4%, and the swing to the ALP is 13.7%

Yes, that isn’t a joke, it says 13.7%.

If that pattern holds, you are talking about 40 Coalition seats being in play including some of the most blue ribbon Liberal seats in the country. These figures are absolutely disastrous for the Coalition. And taking into consideration the earlier quarterly newspoll data where the capital and non-capital city swings were roughly the same, the seats in question aren’t isolated to the capital cities, but are much much broader in geography.

This isn’t some “Oh yeah, we’re behind in the polls but we have a cunning plan� moment, this is staring down the barrel of an electoral execution.

It certainly isn’t, which makes this comment also a very apt one:

People are making comparisons between 2007 and 1996, and 2001 and 2004. But this is different in every aspect. The satisfaction rating differentials are different, the primary vote swings are different, the patterns of the swings are different.

Statistically, the relationship between the satisfaction levels of the government and their primary vote has completely broken down.

Over the last few days, the marginal seat patterns have shown themselves to be different, the State by State breakdown has been different. I’m convinced that insight wont be found for the forthcoming election by looking at the past – this is a different kettle of fish altogether.

(My emphasis.)

Share this... These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google
  • e-mail

30 Responses to “Facebook, Myspace and Politics (and the polls)”


  1. 1 DanielNo Gravatar

    That Howard has 8 friends comes as a complete surprise to me. He must be coming the heavy on his wife, kids AND relatives!

  2. 2 H&RNo Gravatar

    Any new bottle is fine so long as it never changes the palette of party machine politics.

    The kiddies will keep clear just from the nose, as we’ve always done.

  3. 3 MarkNo Gravatar

    To be fair to the Libs, they probably haven’t assigned anyone to approve friend requests. But that’s both dumb and complacent.

  4. 4 wpdNo Gravatar

    I have worked with Rudd. He is demanding of colleagues but he is more demanding of himself.

    As I have said before, I don’t particularly like the bloke but you have to respect him.

    I hope Rudd becomes PM because when it comes to the Rodent, I neither like nor respect him.

    At this stage it looks like a landslide which I suspect won’t happen, but I will not be satisfied unless Maxine wins.

  5. 5 AmandaNo Gravatar

    I have fewer friends than John Howard. ;-)

    I made a Facebook page yesterday because I was invited by a uni friend who is going to live for the foreseeable future overseas and whom I did actually want to keep in touch with. Although, I am ambivalent but narcissism is very addictive.

    Groups joined:
    Graham Arnold is a FARKING IDIOT!! and

    Don’t f*ck it up, Kevin

    Heh.

  6. 6 Adam GallNo Gravatar

    I started a Facebook page yesterday as well Amanda. It’s basically a situation of wanting to keep in contact with people that I don’t see very often, and to get an idea of what my high school friends are up to. I’ve had a myspace a lot longer for the same reasons.

    I’m already friends with Rudd on Facebook: he’s one of the five or six friends I have. I’m not a member of the Labor Party, and I’m not even giving Labor a first preference, but we’re ‘friends’ so I hope he’ll understand.

  7. 7 steveNo Gravatar

    Possum seems to be producing some amazing tables lately and it is good to see a perspective which has been sadly lacking in past campaigns. His confidence seems to be lifting too, I remember a comment to the effect a while ago where he said, “I am amazed that people are interested in this stuff”. Keep up the good work Possum I find it intriguing.

  8. 8 H&RNo Gravatar

    Fuck Facebook and MS. Rudd should employ a Labor loyal to film him going about the 9 to 5 and talking about AFL or chicks or whatever the shit Queenslanders talk about. Bung em on Youtube and bang! you’ve got people watching for more of that queer eye technocrat they’re seeing on the news more often.

    No set-speeches, no painful smiles, just real Rudd (and there’s the channel name).

  9. 9 wpdNo Gravatar

    Just watched the ABC news. The Government claims the ‘outing’ of Greg Rudd, a political lobbyist, who donates to all sides of politics, is retribution from the dreaded unions. And it probably is.

    As they say in politics, your worst enemies are always on your own side.

    But it also demonstrates that Rudd is not a puppet of the unions. Surely.

  10. 10 steveNo Gravatar

    It demonstrates that the Government is disparate to get anything to stick but it won’t help them much and they’ll run the same line again next week, month, year etc.

  11. 11 gandhiNo Gravatar

    Just for the record: MySpace is Murdoch.

    Maybe that’s why so many politicians seem to favor it over the alternatives?

  12. 12 MarkNo Gravatar

    Or maybe the fact that it’s got more members than the others?

  13. 13 skribeNo Gravatar

    I’ll be interested to see if any of the major parties will make the leap into Secondlife. With 13,000 Aussies (most in the 18-39 age range) it will be interesting to see if that’s enough of a carrot.

  14. 14 MarkNo Gravatar

    I have a feeling that Secondlife won’t really catch on in Australia til we get that fast broadband thing from some of the pollies! ;)

  15. 15 skribeNo Gravatar

    This story seems to back that up, Mark.

  16. 16 AmandaNo Gravatar

    Does second life require better speeds than World of Warcraft because I rarely have probs with the latter.

  17. 17 MarkNo Gravatar

    I dunno, generally, Amanda, but when I tried it after the four corners show it was way too much for my broadband.

  18. 18 Lorna ChlanconNo Gravatar

    You people are pathetic and disgusting. The only politician worth his salt in this country is Lachlan Connor, independent Senate candidate for Victoria. He’s had a blog for ages http://lachlanconnor.wordpress.com/ . He’s even got his own website http://lachlanconnor.grods.com/

    You don’t know anything about the interwebs.

  19. 19 skribeNo Gravatar

    Unless you’re below 512k it should be fine. How grunty is your computer and video card, Mark?

  20. 20 OzNo Gravatar

    I made a Facebook page two months ago because everyone kept on inviting me and I caved in.

    The latest Facebook group I joined was Everything is funnier when the Swedish muppet chef says it… though I’m a member of many Labor orientated groups including I wish I lived in Bennelong so I could vote for Maxine

    I agree with Bartlett about the novelty value. People will just add and probably never pay that much attention (other than posting a comment). I really do think the only way that the internet will be effective is if its embedded in real life, use the internet to draw people out and then get them to do something. Otherwise it won’t be effective on its own.

  21. 21 MarkNo Gravatar

    You people are pathetic and disgusting.

    Gosh, that’s the way to win friends and influence votes on the Interwebs, Lorna!

    skribe, what do I need to tell you so you can tell me how grunty my computer is?

  22. 22 NabakovNo Gravatar

    Umm Mark, Lachlan O’Connor is a project not a politician. Follow the GrodsCorps link on his site.

    And trying running Lorna Chlancon through an anagram machine.

  23. 23 skribeNo Gravatar

    Mark, email me at my ‘will not be published’ address. No reason this should be spamming the cosmos

  24. 24 MarkNo Gravatar

    Whatevs, Nabs, that all sounds too trying.

  25. 25 BananaBenderNo Gravatar

    Inter savvy politicians could save us a lot of money as they could run the country / state from their electoral offices. Senator Joyce pointed out that gathering in Canberra for Parliament is a huge waste of time and money. Any search engine negates the need for 99% of overseas ‘fact finding’ junkets.

  26. 26 MorningDudeNo Gravatar

    wpd on 15 July 2007 at 8:34 pm

    Just watched the ABC news. The Government claims the ‘outing’ of Greg Rudd, a political lobbyist, who donates to all sides of politics, is retribution from the dreaded unions. And it probably is.

    As they say in politics, your worst enemies are always on your own side.

    But it also demonstrates that Rudd is not a puppet of the unions. Surely.

    Yes this was a strange attack that the blogosphere hasn’t picked up on yet. In fact the Greg Rudd affair has been mostly a side issue in the blogs (which really it is).

    I can’t remember which Lib pollie made the attack (Hockey I think), but on the surface it was stupid because they were basically saying that Rudd was strong against Unions, which you would think does Kevin Rudd a favour. Then thinking more on what had actually occurred in the way the government’s attack was framed against Rudd, the only explanation I can come up with is that the government is trying to get the Unions to turn against Rudd and change their so far very successful attack away from the government.

  27. 27 DaveyNo Gravatar

    A lot of the comments on Rudd’s Myspace page look pretty fake to me. Then again, it’s all pretty fake and obvious isn’t it … it will be interesting to see if anyone becomes JHo’s [sorry, “The Howard Government”] friend just to send abusive comments. I have to admit when I first saw that impact channel it made me feel kind of nauseous. Not much improvement since.

  28. 28 KenNo Gravatar

    I’m gathering YouTube videos of how our politicians are using, and being used by YouTube and on the web. Nothing very exciting so far, and the Libs haven’t even started trying to spread their story.

    See Australian Election 2007

    Ken

  29. 29 MarkNo Gravatar

    Facebook is fun though!

    Mark is now a Vampire Bride! 11:27pm
    Mark Bahnisch has created 1 Vampires and accumulated 115 Vampire points, thus earning them the title of Vampire Bride!

  30. 30 judith m melvilleNo Gravatar

    Visited Malcolm Turnbull’s MySpace blog early this morning.
    He has 129 ‘friends’ listed. Many look suspiciously like Liberal Party stalwarts.
    All-in-all, a rather amatuerish effort.
    Given his continuing push to dam and divert the Clarence River system, I wonder how he feels about the tens of thousands of enemies he has made in the Clarence Valley?
    I know that some are seriously considering going down to his electorate during the forthcoming election and letting voters know about his recent track record as Minister for Environment and Water Resources.

Leave a Reply

Please read the comments policy. If you would like an icon beside your comment, please register a Gravatar.

There is a Comments Preview function below the typing box which activates when you start typing.

Allowed tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>

Examples:

<strong>Strong</strong>= Strong
<em>Emphasized</em> = Emphasized
<a href="http://www.url.com">Linked text</a>= Linked text
<blockquote>Quoted Text</blockquote>