From today’s Crikey email:
Ross Fitzgerald has jumped on the “Queensland Council amalgamations to cost Rudd the election” bandwagon, portentously warning that “the state that was supposed to deliver victory for Rudd Labor could help end the dream”.
Meanwhile, Labor candidates are betraying their nerves in the face of the PM’s latest tactic in the focus group driven War On The States.
To borrow a phrase from Rudd’s old boss, Wayne Goss, they should all probably take a cold shower.
The Howard plebiscites will probably never go ahead. Electoral law expert Dr Graeme Orr points out that legislation would be required for several reasons, and Peter Beattie has already called Howard’s bluff by passing the amalgamations and warning Councils that go ahead with a poll that they will be sacked.
In any case, behind all the sound and fury of the protests and the PM’s latest tactic, there’s evidence that the reforms are not the dire political doom that everyone seems to assume.
Much of the initial protest was driven by Western Queensland Councils but they have now been spared from amalgamation by the Independent Commission. The biggest remaining flash point is Noosa.
Noosa, of course, is in the safe Liberal seat of Fairfax where Alex Somlyay sits on a 12.4% margin. The most recent Newspoll state by state aggregate polling shows Labor on a 11% swing in the Sunshine State. On those figures, fourteen seats would fall, but Somlyay would hold on. That’s an aggregate of polling from Newspoll up to July, and Labor sources believe the actual swing in Queensland is closer to somewhere between 7 and 9%, which would potentially see twelve seats in play. Labor isn’t expecting to win twelve, and Fairfax has never been on their radar.
Outside Noosa, only Port Douglas and Redcliffe have shown real signs of citizen anger. So there may be some worries for Labor in Petrie and Leichhardt.
But Peter Beattie knows something Howard doesn’t. His appearance on Lateline on Wednesday night contained a significant mention of “state research”.
This wasn’t pursued by Tony Jones, but Beattie’s demeanour should have been enough to demonstrate that he knows that the discontent over amalgamations is more apparent than real. Joh Bjelke-Petersen could have told John Howard that TV vision of protests doesn’t equate to electoral defeat. Voters in Brisbane (exempt from the changes) aren’t interested, and that’s where Labor has a lot of seats in range, and where the vote is likely to mirror the national swing rather than being influenced by parochial factors.
And Labor sources confirm that Beattie knows that party polls show that many who aren’t nonplussed support the amalgamations — which are designed, after all, to provide better infrastructure and services.
Howard, of course, also risks being drawn further into the quagmire of Coalition state politics. In the state house this week, the Liberal member for Noosa hasn’t been able to decide whether he’s anti-Green or pro-Green, the member for Kawana has been thinking of running for mayor of the super Sunshine Coast Council, and to top it all off, there are more rumblings of a possible leadership challenge against Dr Bruce Flegg because his colleagues were offended that he put out a press release reflecting on his first year as leader.
The PM may believe that all politics are local, and Mark Textor may think that the election can be run by treating it as 150 by-elections. But it’s worth remembering that local politics is often about taking out the muck.
Not quite right, The Member for Kawana wants to be Mayor of the Sunshine Coast Super council.
The Member for Caloundra wrote to the state Government demanding amalgamation of the councils.
There was a brilliant speech by Peter Lawlor yesterday with background on the performance of some of the Sunshine Coast Councils. See hansard yesterday page 2525
The Brisbane Times had this story today.
Thanks, steve, and apologies for the error. I’ll send a correction to Crikey.
Doesn’t all this make Rudd’s position of backing the PM a little bit stupid? Surely he must be aware of Beattie’s polling and could have just let this one fly through to the keeper. He didn’t have to back the PM’s position, he could have just ignored the issue.
In fact couldn’t it backfire by making it obvous that Rudd follow’s the PM even when he does something dumb?
SWIO…It might fall into the category of “messing with his head”. JWH is clearly at a loss to find how to deal with KR agreeing with him on issues. As long as the voters see a “no risk” opportunity to ditch Howard he is in deep trouble. It was not long ago JWH was making the claim that the opposition was opposing everything and not recognising the good things the government did. Obviously he finds that easier to deal with.
There was plenty of carry on by boutique left elements when Kennett forced council amalgamations in Victoria. Now its long forgotten history. Howard’s desperation is starting to look increasingly pathetic.
The other option for Rudd is to admit to an unglorified mistake in following Howard down this dead end and promise never to do it again. Following someone with an antiMidas touch is never good for winning elections.
“Doesn’t all this make Rudd’s position of backing the PM a little bit stupid?”
I don’t think so. His deliberate lack of profile on Howard’s increasingly bizarre electoral grabs means that Howard has to face the blowback without any opportunity to deflect attention onto the Opposition case. In essence, Howard cops the lot. It’s an argument between him and opinion at large. What Rudd thinks about LGA amalgamation in Queensland isn’t at issue.
I agree that it’s a risky strategy but, if it keeps working, it will continue to force Howard out to the issue extremities , in an increasingly desperate search for differentiation.
Local government in Australia has been on a continuous trend towards amalgamation since Federation.
It has always been opposed by those who see the potential for personal disadvantage in the shakeout and they’ve always lost. This will be no different. In the grand scheme of things people are less concerned about where LGA boundaries are set (99% of us probably don’t know with any accuracy) and more concerned about the quality of service therein.
Equally, with the ludicrous intervention in Tasmania. Before the first dollar is expended on Howard’s Canute-like vision of every rural hamlet having a Mayo Clinic within walking distance – a complete reversal of the developed world health service delivery received wisdom of the last 50 years – the election will have taken place. If Howard wins, it won’t happen. If Rudd wins, it won’t happen.
Why would Rudd create a diversion by opposing it?
I think the munz is right, while you have the polls where they are, conditionally agree with everything Ratty brings up, he will get more and more stupid to try and get an advantage, then slowly tighten the noose. I’m watching this power play with glee, I know it is uncivil , but after eleven years of Ratty and his lowering Australia as we knew it, I’ll go along with Keating, ‘do you slowly’. But so more subtle.
It has just been amazing how this time last week the general consensus would have been that Council Amalgamations posed a high risk for Labor.
A week later the Conservative forces in both State and Federal spheres are spit, confued and struggling to come up with a political answer to their self – inflicted problems. It has not been good week for the conservatives and the latest Morgan Poll is an affirmation of the bad news.
Just saw a great news item on Win Television.
It appears they ran a phone poll a couple of days ago on Livingstone Shire Mayor, Bill Ludwig and his push to become the Mayor of the proposed amalgamated super shire even though he has campaigned remorselessly against it.
I didn’t quite catch the poll question, but there were 697 replies to the question.
Of more significance is that Win Television have discovered that all the calls have come from just two (2) phones. One of them being a mobile phone belonging to a Councillor who said that he had handed it around in the pub for people to make a few calls.
I bet the poor old ratepayers have paid for the lot. Democracy in action, Queensland style. You can bet your life with the self interest involved here that similar things will be going on all over the regional areas.
Most of the objection to Kennett’s forced amalgamations was not to the amalgamations perse, it was to the way he was doing it – effectively no consultation and appointed commissioners holding office for several years, sometimes making deeply unpopular decisions.
I imagine this is the case in Qld as well. Probably very few people really object to the amalgamations, but some might object to the way Beattie is doing it. The fact that democracy will occur immediately is a huge step up on Kennett, but the threat to sack anyone who dares hold a plebiscite may just rally opposition, and Howard may be able to benefit from that. However, it will take some fancy footwork to manage it.
All so unnecessary really. If Beattie had just said “Look if you want to keep your councils you can, but the extra costs will mean higher rates,” and held a plebiscite where the choice was amalgamation versus a 10% rate rise he would have got what he wanted in virtually every case and no backlash.
I think you will find that the Beattie model is somewhat different from Kennett’s council amalgamation process.
Queensland went through a similar process about 16 years ago but the difference then was that it was a voluntary process. Very successful though I might add.
The main difference this time is Beattie is trying to clean up and consolidate a large number of regional, country councils that have been the traditional stamping ground of local National Party operatives.
On some councils, the Mayor and Councillors have been in power for 30 years or more. Most of the noise is coming from them and the local power brokers with a vested interest in keeping “their” people running the show.
It will be much harder for the status quo if power is distributed more widely and many of these current Councillors have to face electoral prospects in an amalgamated entity with a smaller number of Councillors compared to the present and an increased pool of potential candidates/electors.
I wonder how much of this posturing by the Natinals is an attempt to recruit the bulk of the 750 councilors who become redundant to sign up tp their stamp of state or Federal politics. Their mishandling this week though of the issue will only make it tougher for them.
If the Libs at a state level had their act together, it would have been a very experienced pool of experienced operators to draw from but they too have bungled it. The end result from all this will probably a vast array of independent candidates trying for State and Federal seats over the next few years.
If the coalitions poll position keeps weakening, it may well mean a strong field of independents splitting the Lib and Nat vote in the upcoming Federal election.
If it’s only the ‘political class’ that gets agitated by things like the Haneef affair, I suspect the same applies to local government amalgamations. Most people I know hate their council with a deep loathing and would reflexively applaud anything that would take the council down a peg or two.
Check out the Hansard from State Parliament question times this week, Ken. The Liberals are in deep trouble here. The Libs are fighting the Nats and the Libs could have leadership problems as early as next week.
Scorpio,
In other contexts, that councilor could be accessed of recklessly assisting terrorists (some people could be described like that when they’re in a pub couldn’t they?). Pop Quiz: would getting locked up for helping terrorists, help or hinder your chances of getting elected as a super shire mayor?
… I’ll take my tongue out of my cheek now.
Fozzy on 10 August 2007 at 11:26 pm
I think Ludwig’s chance of becoming a super shire Mayor are probably pretty slim going on the fact that the main population centre of the proposed shire is Rockhampton.
The juggling for power and influence in these new super shires should be quite entertaining during their first election.
There will be a lot of unhappy travellers who will miss out on the gravy train that has sustained them for so long.
One thing remains constant though, the Bizzare Team Rodent gravy train rolls on even for members facing the prospect of charges.
Seeney and the Nats just can not get it. It looks like they are prepared to waste all their resources for the upcoming Federal election fighting impossible court cases.
Hope the Nationals are spending their own cash on this stupidity.
I dunno — I’m going against the prevailing wisdom here by arguing that forced amalgamations issue is gunna cost Rudd crucial votes.
Firstly, it provides Howard with an issue to curry discontent against Labor in the regions. That will force Labor to respond and such the air out of other issues. Rudd may be engaging in me-too-ism, but the issue is alive in the marginals, where it counts.
Secondly, if Howard succeeds in getting a plebiscite added to the federal poll (no matter how non-binding such a plebiscite will be), then it could be very effective in directing votes away from Labor. The tactic here is to get enough voters angry at Labor on the issue of forced amalgamations, which will spill over to the federal vote.
Thirdly, Beattie has made a tactical mistake in threatening law suits against any council that attempts to hold a plebiscite or tally community sentiment. He’s redefining the issue from forced amalgamations to what appears to the councils as censorship and looking like a Bjelke-Peterson style anti-democratic thug.
If I was federal Labor, I would be worried and angry that Beattie is making Rudd’s job of securing the marginals much more difficult than it needs to be.
jethro on 11 August 2007 at 12:57 pm
Two points here, jethro, it worked for Bjelke Jo for 19 years and Beattie is a known Jo fan who picked up on many of Jo’s tactics very successfully. Queenslanders were quite happy with the way old Jo operated for many years.
It may have some effect though in Flynn, Leichhardt, Capricornia, Hinkler and one or two others, but I think any effect would be minor and not really worth the trouble for the Libs
I think this is just one of many issues Howard is throwing up to muddy the waters and keep the media off interest rates, Haneef , workchoices and any other issue which has been causing damage.
I don’t know where you guys live obviously not in the country. Don’t underestimate the anger at Beattie (ie Labour) out here in the Queensland regions. Oh ad by the way it is not all gravy trains – most LC concillors work for a pittance in the country.
Labour is a curently a four letter word across most of Qld presently due to the anilihation of democratic rights to free speech. This has somewhat paled the amalgamation issue. Even the old stalwarts are fuming and if there is any method at all left to the people to vent that anger, it will be used. Hey, isn’t there an election coming up. mmmmm
Here is a conspiracy theory for you all:
Beattie wants the top job
Beattie doesn’t want Rudd to have it
Beattie stuffs up Rudds chances of the top job
Howard gets in but for his last term
Beattie ‘retires’ and moves south to a colder climate
Well, if Labor does lose the fed election, particularly because of lack of a swing in Queensland, we’ll know who to blame.
Mark assures us there is no fallout for the main game likely, as to this risky parochialism of Beattie.
The point is, what does it say when, as to bona fides, if yet another Labor premier is prepared to even slightly risk become the main game for millions of at risk working class Australians?
The essence of the ALP thrust against Howard has involved authoritarianism. The essence of the counter- thrust that Howard yearns for comes from creating nervousness throughout the country at the sort of side effects a plausible hegemony of Labor created from the federal poll creates.
And, by golly, Peter is sure doing his best to prove Howard’s thesis with his argy-bargy Lennonist bugger you, I’m ok antics. He’ll push ahead with his tin pot “reforms”, just as Paul Lennon did with woodchipping in Tasmania in 2004 and the rest of the country can go to hell in a handbasket!
Almost matching Howard arrogance as to Indigenous legislation and a hundred other things, Beattie dismantles the implicit thrust of Rudd; a return to democratic government, by showing how the authoritarian disease has spread to Labor. Howard, in a position where he could not save himself is instead possibly thrown a rope by the very people opposing him. Would such charity be on tap at next year’s budget pronouncements, for the electorate at large?
A new central debate that involves, instead of fairness, “efficiency”, emerges and Howard is back with half a chance through a new set of circumstances to manipulate.
The central job of Beattie at this stage should have been to reinforce the Rudd democratic position. So much easier for Labor states in the future, even an idiot would realise.
And surely a pleasure for a Labor man you’d expect, the chance for the use of patience and reasoned persuasion natural to a social democrat as to an issue as relatively trivial as local government (at least to those few latte members of teh left).
Instead, we get almost the same argy bargy we’expect from Howard himself and for the first time in six months Howard finds a wedge issue that gives him oxygen and suits his manipulative nature.
OK, it mightn’t count. but wont some people eventually feel red-faced f…….g stupid, if they have a conscience, if this unneccessary risk-taking does DOES take a toll in the long run?
I see more or less the same list of seats where there might be some minor ructions was cited in the Fin Review today.
Those Labor sources get around!
Yes, I read that argument from coalition central but then I read the Hansard from State Parliament this week and was it the coalition with Nat fighting Lib .Lib threatening to roll Lib leader next week. Mayor of Noosa unsure if he was Green or Blue. The Liberal member for Caloundra writing to the State Government demanding amalgamation and the Liberal Member for Kawana hating forced amalgamations so much that he wants to be Mayor of the Sunshine Coast Super Council. Then I rolled around laughing that this pack of infighting clowns would seriously be a threat to anybody let alone Rudd.
Well the Geelong Advertiser has done an indepth investigative FOI search of it’s local council and what did they find?
I think you underestimate the number of outer suburban voters still carrying a baseball bat from 1924!
Er, or not.