The first in a weekly series until the Federal election is decided.
An open thread where, at the mercy of your election-year mania, you may discuss all the myriad electioneering material which is currently leaking into other threads where the election is not actually on topic.
I feel like a little kid, but my only thought about the election lately is: “Are we there yet?”
Can we please have the election already? I don’t think I can make it to a December/January election date. It’s only August and the election fatigue is already beginning to set in.
I see that a certain Fish & Chip proprieter from Queensland is standing in the Senate using the former name of the party now known as the Liberal Party.
The main difference will be that this time the former fish and chip shop owner, who claims credit for forcing the Howard Government to adopt a harder line on immigration controls, will target Muslims.
“We need to have a look at our immigration levels and I’d like to have a look at putting a moratorium on any more Muslims coming into Australia,” she said today.
The former One Nation leader has also applied to the Australian Electoral Commission to register Pauline’s United Australia Party.
If successful, the party’s abbreviated name, Pauline, will appear above the line on the Senate ballot paper, making it easier for people to vote for Ms Hanson
I reckon this will make Ron Boswell’s Electoral Task a tad more difficult and will no doubt split the Queensland Conservative Redneck Vote.
Don’t you love Dolly
“I suspect Mr Speaker, it would be best if we heard no more from the Leader of the Opposition on his hypocrisy,” he said.
John Howard, says voters will not be concerned by the leadership issue
Oh and a request - is it possible to to this post permantently linked to the top of the website so people can access it when it is low down in the comments section ?
I for one would rather not do that, Frank - I think when someone’s gone to the trouble of writing a post that post deserves it’s time at the top of the posting tree. Others in the collective may disagree however.
Still, if this thread drops down and off the comments tree, then if you use the search function up in the header and just type in “Election Speculation” then the latest of these threads should be close to the top result, I would think. Once you make a new comment, the latest Election Speculation post will be back up the top of the comments tree again. That should do the job, don’t you think?
Tigtog,
Fair enoigh comment - just wanted to make life easier. But it would also be nicer if there was a way of editing one’s posts so as not to clog threads up with posts correcting one word errors etc and/or missing urls etc.
Now getting back to the topic, Found this on Crikey *no URL, was in locked Tips & Rumours Section)
quite. do you think Rodent’s strategy is to wear us down with constant badgering?
“Orright, Ill vote for you, just pleaaaase SHUT UP!”
One could always ask in the correcting post that the error be corrected by a moderator and then the correction request be deleted? We’re probably amenable to bribes of chocolate to ensure prompt moderator service, or maybe margaritas.
I think the election will be held.
Of Victorian interest: Angela Pippos, ABC Newsreader - and who incidentally is the Uberhotness - may run for Bracksy’s seat.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pippos-tipped-for-bracks-seat/2007/08/15/1186857586987.html
Emma Alberici for PM, Lefty E!
More like fitfully fumbled for in a trembling hand.
Here’s an Emma link for you, Lefty E:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/26755399@N00/sets/72157594242621535/
Click on the set and ignore the young entrepreneur.
Many votes will be cast in this election, some of them for political parties.
Frank on RW firebrand Pauline H:
I would think that all of Pauline’s preferences would go back to Boswell rather than Greens, Dems, Labor.
I guess it depends whether she takes enough away from him to cause him to drop out.
And gotcha yer LP campaign commentary soundtrack right here luv.
Two old blokes in macs, one very grubby and stained, the other sporting a cheap and flashy white vinyl number, both trying to seduce an increasingly nubile and wired electorate that just wants to get under a decent umbrella in a growing economic drizzle.
thanks Mark. Emma 4 Prez!
And you’ll find Angela Pippos embabeifying the Age homepage as we speak http://www.theage.com.au/
Mark:
Excellent suggestion!
Frank Calabrese:
Errrr, there’s a mile-wide gap between the Ministry of Propaganda portrayal of
Trotsky(try again)Satan(nuh; have another go) Pauline Hanson and reality. She is an ordinary nationalist, that’s all; nowhere near as wild as that spectacular Russian nationalist, Vladimir Volfovich Zhironovsky. You used that foreign term of abuse “Red-neck” as loosely as any journalist; do you think it is fair to brand Hanson’s Aboriginal supporters with that offensive term?What really annoys me with Hanson is that if she does stand for the Senate, she may not get in herself but she might ensure that an underperforming Liberal/Nationals yes-man does get in …. and that in the process, we might not only lose an outstanding Senator, Andrew Bartlett, but also miss out on our best ever chance of getting a Greens Senator and an independent/minority Senator to replace a couple of w.o.f.t.a.m. party nong-nongs. Why the hell doesn’t she go for a House Of Representatives seat [Maranoa? Leichhardt? Oxley?] and liven up the election campaign as well as the next Parliament?
Anyway …. talk is cheap …. and especially if a bold stunt is launched to delay or suspend the election.
Well, as you know, I dont normally promote the GG: but Nicholson’s latest animation is a corker.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/1,25199,1,00.html
Lefty E - that was hilarious.
Heh and heh Lefty E.
Always good to see Australian cartoonists are still world’s best practice.
Its worth trawling through Nicho’s online back catalogue, Mick & Nabs.
I can’t stand it much longer, neither. Why Rudd doesn’t call a snap election, I don’t know.
Meanwhile, Nov 10 firms as the date. And the ALP is suddenly looking a tad short at $1.50. And Maxine at $2.10? There’s a lot of sentiment out there.
Angela Says No.
Ms Pippos confirmed she had been approached by Labor party officials to stand in Williamstown after Mr Bracks’ resignation last month, according to ABC reports earlier this evening.
ok - so the ABC will have a couple of staff left post election afterall.
I wonder if they’ll start tabulating the votes where people just drew a dick and balls on the ballot and put it in the box.
For sure Kelly Hoare would’ve lost her spot in my electorate years ago.
Me thinks that “biff” and “stiff”have an election problem.
I wrote in the wrong thread:
“I googled “most popular australian political blogâ€? and ended up here. I’m an American political junkie on his lunch hour. Anyway, I’m wondering what the hell happened to Australia. I remember running around the world and staying in youth hostels way back in my youth and always meeting progressive-minded Aussies. I just assumed Australia had a common-sense, progressive political climate. I figured the reality of global warming would only underscore that. I ignored Rupert Murdoch as an Australian fluke and never thought his influence might indicate that there was a large right-wing electorate in Australia. Lately though, I’ve been wondering about the Australian electorate. Is there really a large right-wing presence in the Australian electorate? If there is, does that mean there is an equivalent conservative political myth in Australia that trumpets rugged individualism and less government like we have in the US? Pardon my ignorance of Australian politics. It’s really atrocious.
In America, we had strange election problems occur when Database Technologies (DBT) got involved with compiling a felons list in Florida (former felons are not allowed to vote in Florida). DBT reconfigured into a company called Checkpoint and Checkpoint has been involved in Mexican elections and France’s recent election, as far as I know. There are definitely voter fraud problems in the US and I suspect there might be problems developing in other countries. Are left-wing Australians suspicious of their own election process? I would edit this post, but I’m on my and just felt like going to Australia. By the way, who is Guy Rundle?”
@ Nabokov
“To sum up, we’re getting more and more like the US in election tactics but the things that seperate from the US like our much more pragmatic attitudes toward sex, religion and the role of Government (regardless of which party’s in power, they all end up as muddling through dirigistes) show no sign of abating.
In short, we’re still much more like Canada albeit with much nicer weather and much worse circumstances for our indigenous population.�
Unfortunately, I think a very powerful faction of American aristocrats is exporting cut-throat election tactics. Clamp down on that shit now or you’ll be sorry for it later. It sounds like sexual norms and religiosity are not really areas political operatives even try to manipulate in Australia. Count yourself lucky for that. It could be worse, though, you could live far below the equator nearer to the ozone hole . . . wait, forget I said that.
@ grace Pettigrew
Thanks for the link.
“So the Howard Government has told us that rampant voter fraud (for which there is no evidence) has forced them to tighten up the electoral system, when the real intention of these changes is to suppress the vote of those who are unlikely to favour the coalition parties at the polls.
At the 2007 federal election, thousands of people will be turned away from the polling booths because they failed to enrol or re-enrol before the rolls snapped close at the whim of the Prime Minister, and prisoners will be disenfranchised.� http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2006/11/13/every-vote-is-sacred/
Yeech. *Shudder* Get out in front of this, make some noise, and maybe you can dodge the bullet.
Anyway, this has been my short trip to Australia. Good luck and all the best Aussies.
The ‘Conga line of suckholes’ lines up again ….
From the SMH:
“I couldn’t give a rats arse if two blokes don’t get along, the fact is when they actually get together as a team they do a magnificent job of running this country,” West Australian Liberal Don Randall told reporters in Canberra.
“It’s just a bit of colour and light, nothing wrong with people with personalities and interesting ways they conduct themselves.
“People forgive you for your sins. We’re only human.”
Yeah, right! Roll on the Election.
Simon Jackman has a graph of all Federal Seats updated daily based on betting odds.
One “UntilElectionIsDecided” milestone has been reached, so in a sense it’s officially on:
The gutenubermenschen @ http://www.dpmc.gov.au/guidelines/caretaker_conventions.cfm
tell us there are Caretaker Convention guidelines “intended to ensure a smooth transition if an election results in a change of government”, allowing for pre-election consultation with appropriate officials of Government departments by the Opposition.
The guidelines apply as soon as an election for the House of Representatives is announced or three months before the expiry of the House of Representatives, whichever occurs first.
The 41st Parliament first met on 16 November 2004, is due to expire 15 November 2007.
Ergo: It’s officially on for young and old.
If you are interested in his, presumed, answer/take, I’ve asked Andrew over at http://andrewbartlett.com/blog/?page_id=1503 whether he can use this to get onto the good oil.
Cheers, I’ll get out of your way now.
Google News Australia currently lists 341 News items on the Costello issue.
A quick Google on “Peter Costello’s Lies” brought up 640,000 pages.
A Quick Google last night on Peter Costello Truthful last night resulted in “Nil” pages.
Just now it showed 42,500, so it is gradually catching up.
If you ever wondered why The Oz’s Matt Price only seems to write adoring columns about John Howard, check this vid cast on The Oz political section.
Price is asked about Costello’s Waters Edge dinner and he looks like he’s been run over by a bus and dragged through a Young Labor Conference with his JMH pyjamas on!
The best part is when he’s asked who will cop the political fallout from this - he reacts like his just been sacked.
Sorry - that’s JWH!
Mark, I am right there with you! Talk business to me, baby!
Rod: yes I noticed them vids today too, are they a new part of rupert’s platform?
Agree with you about Pratty Mice, he’s on my list of thems who are paid to be the ones we love to hate.
But he’s so slimy about it. At least Andy and Timmy B, ‘Randy D, Piers et al are upfront about it. And he’s gutless about posting comments, once he even got the comment facility taken away, rather than post something that explained what he just can’t seem to get, what he calls Kevinism.
It’s a shame really, cos he can do good copy, he’s the tragedy of Fourth Estate turning into a Fifth Column, writ small.
If you want to win a senate seat I WA judging by talkback call to 6pr,promise you will open a concentration camp put work makes you free and drop the age of criminal responsibility to 8 try them as adults and put them in adult jails,or whip them with the rattan as per Singapore.
I think in WA some of them would like to see the Singapore justice system into WA,so they can leave the door unlocked at night and retire in the 1950s like they want to
If you want to win a senate seat I WA judging by talkback call to 6pr,promise you will open a concentration camp put work makes you free over the gate, and drop the age of criminal responsibility to 8, try them as adults and put them in adult jails,or whip them with the rattan as per Singapore.
I think in WA some of them would like to see the Singapore justice system brought into WA,so they can leave the door unlocked at night and retire in the 1950s like they want to and let the Govt think for them sorry about the double post
The pre-election consutation guideines are explicitly distinguished from the carteaker conventions proper, which don’t kick in until the House is actually dissolved. But thanks for the heads-up on the date!
That clinches it, tim! I am definitely starting the Emma for PM Facebook group! Would it be overly facetious to suggest that the adherents thereof be known as “Emma’s List”?
My only question, Mark, is which party she’ll be leading!
From Danny’s link about caretaker convention
Does this mean no more Government propaganda about workchoices?
No, for the reason I mentioned.
Like Harriet Vane [15 August 7.26pm] I am at the “are we there yet” stage with the Federal Election 07.
I suspect that Malcolm Bligh Turnbull may also be wishing that election night was here.
One of his staff is rumoured to have phoned at least one NSW Northern Rivers newspaper to vehemently complain about local coverage the Minister is receiving over the Clarence River system water diversion issue.
There seem to lots of Queenslanders reading this blog so I ask - is there even a remote chance Ms Hanson will get into the senate ?
(Apart from lucking out with a donkey vote - does that possibility work by the way ?)
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/hanson-calls-for-halt-to-muslim-immigration/2007/08/16/1186857634226.html
Steve, Martin :
Aside: “YOU DON’T HAVE TO SHAVE HER ANYWHERE…WE’LL BE USING MY CRANIAL SCREWTOP METHOD OF ENTRY INTO THE BRAIN”. The Man With Two Brains
On track again: No, not yet, to Jolly Green Joe’s WC deluge relief, per martin, but perhaps yes that Nicola Rixon can get an appointment with Jane H. about what is really planned for privatising Mersey Hospital, for starters. Yeh, right…
On the excitement to be expected once the election is called, this gem appeared as a headline in the esteemed Warragul Gazette, during the last Victorian state campaign:
“Party policies may influence voters”.
Yes folks, you heard it first, here at Lavartus.
We Gippslanders all had to take a Bex and have a good lie down. The very thought was just too much to bear. Some of us even contemplated joining the emigre community in Hobart.
boredinHK on 16 August 2007 at 6:41 pm
{There seem to lots of Queenslanders reading this blog so I ask - is there even a remote chance Ms Hanson will get into the senate ?}
Unfortunately, Yes!
It will be well worthwhile keeping a close track on her campaign and seeing which way Howard bends to try and pick up his vote in Queensland.
I don’t think that Ms Hanson really cares whether or not she gets up. Her main interest is IMHO, Firstly getting her 4 percent primary and the taxpayers cash, ($200 grand should keep her going for a couple of years at least) Putting a cat amongst the pigeons policy wise, and if lucky enough to score well in the poll, to suck on the public teat for the next 6 years.
She’s just in it for the dosh - that’s right. But she hasn’t got a hope of being elected - even if she bothers to campaign - she didn’t really last time. She’s morphed into a failed reality tv star now.
The site linked by steve is very interesting - it shows that while the ALP is winning some seats it is not enough to take government.
Mark, I think it would be well worthwhile keeping an eye on her public announcements and the resulting response.
She generally doesn’t come out with middle Aust type issues, instead she picks up on “far right” issues that she picks up in her travels and throws them out for public consumption and gauges them for effect.
If anything gets good media response she then goes in pretty hard on it while it is contemporary.
Howard will be watching her closely to see if he can hijack anything that he thinks will turn a few of those far right wing voters over to his cause.
He has done it effectively before and used her as a type of barometer of right wing concerns that he can try and capture.
Razor on 16 August 2007 at 10:17 pm
The site linked by steve is very interesting - it shows that while the ALP is winning some seats it is not enough to take government.
Was that the link at 9.56 am, Razor.
Sorry for the crosspost, but since election speculation is the raison d’etre of the Polbludger I thought I would drop in this comment from Antony Green.
Razor: Antony also points out that there is a disjuncture between the bookies election results odds (which clearly favour the ALP) and the individual seat odds, which, as you point out, at this moment favour the Coalition.
He stole that line from me!
Seriously, I think that’s particularly the case in the outer suburban and regional/rural seats.
I think it was more Latham than interest rates - interest rates was sort of a proxy.
Trip_Wonders:
Thanks for your insights. We are equally puzzled at why President Pelosi is so shy about her own inauguration and about putting that pair of losers pretending to be President and Vice-Prez in the slammer. Here in Australia, we have worsening problems with whatever remnants of democracy still survive.
Bored in HK:
Yes, simply by nominating, Pauline Hanson will get a huge swag of votes …. and for that we can thank your Chinese neighbours! Talk about more money than sense! She was only ever an ordinary nationalist and popularist but the frenzied over-the-top reactions to her in previous years simply strengthened her.
If your Chinese neighbours do not want to see Pauline Hanson actually get elected this time, they would be better off playing mah-jong during this election campaign than fiddling with Australian politics again - regardless of what PhDs in Political Science they may hold.
Another possible explanation is that it is a very new and thin market.
The market itself was framed by conservative economists so it reflects their bias too.
Razor, I think you will find that punters with access to possum pollytics, poll bludger, Ozpolitics and internal party polling will all make a nice tidy profit from their superior knowledge.
Malcolm Farr reckoned the date’s October 20, on ABC this morning, timed to occur before the next interest rate rise.
I think the ALP has to pick up 17 or 18 seats. I ain’t seeing that in the betting and I trust the betting a lot more than I trust the polls.
16.
Qualify that - in the seat betting. The overall outcome is a different matter.
Morgan today: 58.5 to 41.5 2PP, 49.5 to 36.5 primary.:-)
In principle, the seat betting might make more sense than the overall outcome because it’s there that local knowledge might factor in but conversely the size of the pools is an issue.
Yes, an excellently disastrous result for the government. 2PP margin back to where it has been, ±3%, since… December 2006.
State parliament sits here in Queensland next week and the Queensland Liberal leadership struggle should knock them around more for next week’s poll.
I’m sorry, did “Flegg = Howard” just flash subliminally on screen?
Let’s get Flegg a federal seat! He could ensure a thousand year Rudd reign!
Plus we’d have the leadership contest of Kevin vs Bruce…
And people reckon Howard wants to take us back to the 50s? Bring on the contest of the guys with daggy 50s names!
I must confess that I’m a little bit confused by what’s happening at Portlandbet, especially when you take a look at the electoral pendulum.
Whilst I understand that local issues do come into play and incumbency also is a big factor, I just don’t understand how the betting can indicate that Swan may possibly fall to the Libs (indicating a swing to them) but Hasluck - also in WA - is shown as falling to Labor (indicating a swing against them of at least 1.8%). But Stirling, whose margin is bang on 2% - only 2 tenths of a percentage larger than Hasluck - is shown as being retained by the Libs.
Could it be that the betting markets are being influenced by large individual bets? For example, could it be that it’s aspiration betting by rich people: ie natural Coalition supporters who are indicating that they WANT the Coalition to win or who can’t bear the thought of putting money on Labor, even if they stand to win? Or, for that matter, is it sitting members putting large bets on themselves for pretty much the same reason?
I dont get the betting markets either.They seem to follow dramatic poll movements (though, not every poll) and the news commentary rather than the news itself (particularly the MSM commentariat “Issue of the Day”).Essentially they look to me like a newstrader market waiting for someone to fleece them.Reminds me of oil.
They backed the Coalition spin over the Burke issue - and then retreated.They backed the Coalition spin over Rudds childhood memory failure - and then retreated.
They’ll move 20c on the basis of Kevin RUdds ALP conference speech because some dude in The Terror thought it was crash hot, but wont move an inch over an interest rate rise.They’ll move 20c on a pretty ridiculous Galaxy poll that I thought was one of those 1 in 20 polls that are statistically in La La Land, but will hardly move at all over 2 months worth of Newspolls showing ALP support consolidating into a landslide lead.Underlying the jumpy movements though is a slow trend away from the Coalition - essentially reflecting the general polling state, albeit with quite spectacular outbursts of betting irrationality interupting the slow underlying movement.
Porlandbets initial odds were frankly, ridiculous.That particular market is still adjusting to those silly initial offerings.
As for the larger national odds - I wonder if the money placed during Big Kims reign as ALP leader is still impacting on the overall odds, and if so to what level?As the election approaches, that factor, if it exists, should continue to diminish and wash out - but I wonder how it skewed the odds if the election betting odds were calculated on the same book that covered both Kim and Rudd?
That said, I’m probably biased over these things
And Martin @ 3:15pm
For some reason that was really funny
Everyone:
After the Senate’s incredibly divisive blunder on
Regime Change and W.M.D.“Intervention” …. we might all be far too busy defending the Commonwealth Of Australia’s new and unstable borders to worry about luxuries like elections.The betting markets are just another neo-liberal con.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some people are taking out sub-prime bets.
And in more Howard Seizure of States Rights.
A News Limited newspaper report refers to deputy prime minister Mark Vaile’s comments that Canberra could pump billions of dollars into key export infrastructure in NSW and Queensland.
However, for the plan to go ahead, states would have to surrender control of major coal-loading ports along Australia’s east coast, Mr Vaile said.
“The nation’s export effort is too important not to be better co-ordinated,â€? he said.
A report released earlier this week showed serious problems with ports and called for a funding injection of about $3 billion over four years.
And would most likey to result in Bastard Boys Part 2.
That one will just swing so many marginal seats!… Erm….
Living up to my real life status as an amateur, could you suggest why the betting markets are supposedly more spot on than polls?
Is it because everyone bets, so therefore have to back their bets? Or not everyone bets but everyone loves a winner? So the more the bods are backed in, the more the other bods follow. Not quite the same as the Melbourne Cup, cos’ the horses don’t read (do they?)
I did my own truly amateur calculation on Portlandbet, based on a mysterious calculation and wild notions which I prefer to conceal, and guess what?
Came up with landslide to Labor.
The theory is supposed to be that (a) “insiders” stake big money because they know something the rest of us don’t, (b) markets are the epitome of rationality.
As Possum points out, in fact, they just have a dumbassed relationship with the polls and commentary - they’re entirely parasitic on reporting of the election which is quite often bullshit as we all know.
Also, the betting on individual seats does not reflect the views of betters who are making predictions on the election outcome as a whole.
It reflects the views of people betting on it. That’s it. Nothing more. Nothing to see here, move on.
I don’t know why anyone takes it remotely seriously.
The people spruiking it in the first place were economists. It’s all part of the “markets know all” thing. Well we’ve really seen that with the reaction to the US sub-prime stuff, haven’t we? Then, big daddy Glen Stevens comes in and “calms” the “markets”. Is it just me or is anyone else surprised that the language normally used on Lateline Business and the like suggests a really annoying bunch of toddlers who wield great power?
Keynes got it all right almost 70 years ago. Dumb herd like behaviour, total short term fixation, spooked or enthused alternatively. The “markets” were bipolar before that was medicalised.
Now, now. You just need to have faith that the markets will sort everything out, and we’ll all be saved in the big market rapture.
Maybe it’s just me and not liking neo-liberal capitalism, but I hope that the “betting markets” get it spectacularly wrong and a lot of economists lose a lot of their own money in the process.
Would anyone like to hazard a bet on a major Coalition announcement re Iraq when George visits?
I think a pseudo announcement is more likely.
It will be a pseudo affair, except for the people of Sydney who’ll have to put up with it.
“Well we’ve really seen that with the reaction to the US sub-prime stuff, haven’t we? Then, big daddy Glen Stevens comes in and “calmsâ€? the “marketsâ€?. Is it just me or is anyone else surprised that the language normally used on Lateline Business and the like suggests a really annoying bunch of toddlers who wield great power?
All part of the markets know all thing??
This could be perhaps better worded as many different participants all expressing their individual opinions/ desires/preferences will in total more accurately reflect the reality of any situation. It is more a function of statistics than opinion.
Glen Stevens provided cash to make sure the credit markets didn’t collapse.If they want to call it calming the markets that is done to avoid the general public understanding they are footing the bill and some market participants are being bailed out . The so called moral hazard - the central banks could let some markets participants go bust but with the interconnectedness of markets that may is no small part be your super going down the drain.
Toddlers wielding great power? Not only are they powerful they are devious. The economic basics are still sound in most economies around the world so why are some pundits rattling the markets with dire warnings and predictions? Couldn’t be wanting to scare the less fluid or knowledgeable would they ? Nothing like picking up some cheap stocks now that US rates have been cut. The current problem is a debt problem but it will take a while to directly influence the economy.
So what happened last night ? Big bounce and who is buying - well this is hard to track as the hedge funds are operating over so many markets and through so many accounts there is no chance of detecting their influence.
And you thought conspiracy theories only existed in politics ?
If Coalition supporters wish to take comfort in the betting markets for individual seats, they are welcome.
Memo to Coalition election managers:
and guess who’s cooking dinner now at The Wall Street Journal?
I agree boredinHK…some rocky roads ahead for the economy but what we saw was manipulated chaos…
and doesn’t it irk you that the Reseve Bank manages to keep interest rates high in Australia compared to the US, Japan, Britain & the like in order to please the money makers who use our system to earn decent rates…regardless of the impact on the average home owner. The average Australian citizen kicked in the goolies again by the privileged FEW & their Reserve Bank mates.
Last time I ate w/ the Father-in-law & Uncle-in-law they reckoned they might vote Labor for the Reps & Hanson in the Senate to keep the mongrels honest. Sad days indeed. Losing Andrew Bartlett would be a blow for QLD politics i reckon. Still, there decision is not good for the Coalition either.
Losing Andrew Barlett, and gaining Pauline Hanson would be a BOON for Qld politics.
Probably the best thing which could happen to it.
PH, at the time, was the most effective opposition Australia had to John Howard. In fact probably the only opposition. When she spoke, Howard jumped, when Beazley (who had the entire ALP machine to support him) spoke, nobody noticed, even in between yawns.
Things would be more lively with her in the Senate. Many who are not politically engaged would pay more attention to politics.
She is pro-Australian, albeit often misguided. Andrew Bartlett has more in common with a protestor at the gates of Baxter detention centre than he does with an Australian. His only headline was for getting drunk & manhandling a sheila in parliament.
PH will have daily headlines. Think of the newspaper circulations.
Think of the opportunities to hold street marches protesting whatever she comes up with!
We are told about the rationality of the market, but now we have “experts” telling us that the greed phase is out the window and we are now ruled by fear. All we need to do is wait for confidence, that the market is cheap, that the people with cash are looking to buy, but they are afraid to buy something they could get cheaper next week.
We also have people like currency traders and hedge funds, where pumped up screen jocks play their short-term zero-sum casino games, producing almost nothing of substantive worth. And boredinHK, the presence of hedge funds was dramatically revealed on Thursday.
Suddenly the sharemarket tanked by 5%. Costello came on in response to a Dorothy Dixer in Question Time to make soothing remarks, no doubt written by Treasury, about how the real economy was strong etc etc.
Alan Kohler came on the box that night and told us what really happened. The Sydney Futures Market shut down for an hour or two for system maintenance, so the hedge funds, unable to wait to sell stuff they didn’t own on the play market had to do it on the real market!
FWIW, I think, getting down to fundamentals in this country, the sharemarket will most likely settle down and recover. Companies are mainly very profitable and little that is going on will alter that much. Intelligent Investor a conservative ‘value investor’ mob have just emailed a buy recommendation on RAMS, albeit a speculative buy at $095c.
Our problems are three-fold.
Firstly, there is a rapidly approaching crunch on household debt, part of which is real estate. In recent times the economy has prospered to a significant degree on demand stemming from increasing debt. Labor is right. It’s unsustainable and we should be focussing on productivity.
Secondly, there is a low quality real estate loan problem. The smiling fat Aussie loans guy consulted by the ABC as an expert down-played it and we are told that we only have a 1% exposure to sub-prime. It’s just that we also have a 14-15% exposure to ‘low doc’ loans, which are similar. Furthermore, there is loan stress amongst high grade loans to middle-class people as well.
Third, household debt and real estate problems in the US, where the consumers of last resort are, may affect the world economy. But we are told this is less likely now because the US economy is not as important as it used to be.
Also 50% of the growth in wealth in the US in recent times has accrued to the top 10% in the wealth stakes but it’s really the top 0.5% where the action is, according to Nicholas Gruen. So the common experience of ‘the people’ matters less and less.
Isn’t capitalism wonderful!
“Losing Andrew Barlett, and gaining Pauline Hanson would be a BOON for Qld politics.”
Steve at the pube, you are at it again!
Get your hands off it, old son.
Howard on Workchoices.
“If the Labor party wins the election, they will change those industrial relations laws. They will throw them out lock, stock and barrel.
“They will get rid of AWAs, they will bring back unfair dismissal laws, they will return the union movement to a monopoly position in the bargaining process of Australian workplaces.
“No future Coalition Government will believe it is politically feasible to reinstate the reforms on their election some years in the future.
“So it is very much a make-or-break situation concerning those laws.”
SteveAtThePub:
Regardless of his political affiliations, Senator Andrew Bartlett is definitely worth feeding. He works …. so if he does lose his seat, it would be a serious loss to Australia.