Comments on: The Latham effect http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/ Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas Tue, 14 Feb 2012 01:01:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Scorpio http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80073 Scorpio Tue, 21 Aug 2007 01:05:25 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80073 <blockquote>Mr Denmore on 20 August 2007 at 10:16 pm Who’d be a politician? What a nasty, brutal, base business it is. I thought I was jaded and cynical, but the level of skullduggery discussed here just makes me despair about the prospect of any return to any semblance of idealism in national political life. What won’t these malevolent, soul-less people do to cling onto office? And what a low opinion they must have of the electorate. Why would any half decent person bother to enter political life if these are the games that are played. Just depressing.</blockquote> A number of years ago I was approached be Gary Black to stand for Labor in my electorate. This was before the candidate draw system, ie candidates were listed in alphabetical order on the ballot paper and you could always be assured of a "donkey" vote. My surname begins with "A". I took a day to think about it and the things you mention in your post were quite evident at that time. I believe they are getting worse now. These things were well and truly at the forefront in my decision not to stand. I have never been asked again. As it turned out, the local AMWU Official was selected, he unfortunately had a surname way down the list and just missed out by a handful of votes. The donkey vote factor would have been crucial. I have never regretted my decision, more so in recent years.

Mr Denmore on 20 August 2007 at 10:16 pm
Who’d be a politician? What a nasty, brutal, base business it is. I thought I was jaded and cynical, but the level of skullduggery discussed here just makes me despair about the prospect of any return to any semblance of idealism in national political life. What won’t these malevolent, soul-less people do to cling onto office? And what a low opinion they must have of the electorate. Why would any half decent person bother to enter political life if these are the games that are played. Just depressing.

A number of years ago I was approached be Gary Black to stand for Labor in my electorate.

This was before the candidate draw system, ie candidates were listed in alphabetical order on the ballot paper and you could always be assured of a “donkey” vote. My surname begins with “A”.

I took a day to think about it and the things you mention in your post were quite evident at that time. I believe they are getting worse now.

These things were well and truly at the forefront in my decision not to stand. I have never been asked again.

As it turned out, the local AMWU Official was selected, he unfortunately had a surname way down the list and just missed out by a handful of votes. The donkey vote factor would have been crucial.

I have never regretted my decision, more so in recent years.

]]> By: Anna Winter http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80072 Anna Winter Mon, 20 Aug 2007 12:40:27 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80072 <blockquote>Wonder if you can take a mobile into the booth.</blockquote> Yes, and you'll find whatever campaign you're scrutineering for will probably expect it so that you can report in with updates. Just don't stand over their shoulders and give a running commentary.

Wonder if you can take a mobile into the booth.

Yes, and you’ll find whatever campaign you’re scrutineering for will probably expect it so that you can report in with updates. Just don’t stand over their shoulders and give a running commentary.

]]> By: Mr Denmore http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80071 Mr Denmore Mon, 20 Aug 2007 12:16:58 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80071 Who'd be a politician? What a nasty, brutal, base business it is. I thought I was jaded and cynical, but the level of skullduggery discussed here just makes me despair about the prospect of any return to any semblance of idealism in national political life. What won't these malevolent, soul-less people do to cling onto office? And what a low opinion they must have of the electorate. Why would any half decent person bother to enter political life if these are the games that are played. Just depressing. Who’d be a politician? What a nasty, brutal, base business it is. I thought I was jaded and cynical, but the level of skullduggery discussed here just makes me despair about the prospect of any return to any semblance of idealism in national political life. What won’t these malevolent, soul-less people do to cling onto office? And what a low opinion they must have of the electorate. Why would any half decent person bother to enter political life if these are the games that are played. Just depressing.

]]> By: boredinHK http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80070 boredinHK Mon, 20 Aug 2007 09:53:41 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80070 "As Clinton said at the time, â??that dog wonâ??t huntâ??. But the better quote was from an elderly voter many years earlier when Clinton was running for Governor in Arkansas " That dog won't stay on the porch ! ". Can't recall where I read the comment that Rudd has a glass jaw and is brittle under pressure . I think Mark may have mentioned it a long time ago?Lets see how his demeanour goes with this issue. Q'lders care to comment with knowledge from the Goss era? Have to agree with Gandhi on the elction spec thread - this is mud and it will stick and be used over and over even if not blatantly in later stages of the election. “As Clinton said at the time, â??that dog wonâ??t huntâ??.

But the better quote was from an elderly voter many years earlier when Clinton was running for Governor in Arkansas ” That dog won’t stay on the porch ! “.

Can’t recall where I read the comment that Rudd has a glass jaw and is brittle under pressure . I think Mark may have mentioned it a long time ago?Lets see how his demeanour goes with this issue.
Q’lders care to comment with knowledge from the Goss era?

Have to agree with Gandhi on the elction spec thread – this is mud and it will stick and be used over and over even if not blatantly in later stages of the election.

]]> By: blacklight http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80069 blacklight Mon, 20 Aug 2007 09:01:19 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80069 definitely latham factor in WA. Canning is a case in point. ALP really stuffed up on that seat with there candidate pulling out at the last minute. If you look at the results at the AEC, the Canning swing to Lib was huge. They even won most of the large suburban booths in rmadale. In 2001 Armadale was 59-60% for ALP ! In 2005 state election, Allanah Mctiernan was re-elected in the state seat of Armadale by a healthy double digit margin. Canning should at least go back to being ultra marginal. Meanwhile in nearby Hasluck, the swings were very modest. I suspect the states rights issue will bite here. It is very big here. A slab of significant state Libs are pro secession for gods sake. definitely latham factor in WA.

Canning is a case in point.

ALP really stuffed up on that seat with there candidate pulling out at the last minute.

If you look at the results at the AEC, the Canning swing to Lib was huge.

They even won most of the large suburban booths in rmadale. In 2001 Armadale was 59-60% for ALP ! In 2005 state election, Allanah Mctiernan was re-elected in the state seat of Armadale by a healthy double digit margin.

Canning should at least go back to being ultra marginal.

Meanwhile in nearby Hasluck, the swings were very modest.

I suspect the states rights issue will bite here. It is very big here. A slab of significant state Libs are pro secession for gods sake.

]]> By: Kevin Rennie http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80068 Kevin Rennie Mon, 20 Aug 2007 08:40:14 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80068 As I've said before in <a href="http://laborview.blogspot.com/2007_07_01_archive.html" rel="nofollow">Labor View from Broome</a>, unless the coalition completely implodes, the election will be decided in WA where the ALP can win Hasluck and Stirling with a small swing and Kalgoorlie with 6.3% or about 4% if we use pre-2004 figures. I'm going to scrutineer and miss the growing frustration as East coast psephologists like Antony Green wait for the West. Wonder if you can take a mobile into the booth. Kevin Rennie Labor View from Broome <a href="http://laborview.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">http://laborview.blogspot.com/</a> As I’ve said before in Labor View from Broome, unless the coalition completely implodes, the election will be decided in WA where the ALP can win Hasluck and Stirling with a small swing and Kalgoorlie with 6.3% or about 4% if we use pre-2004 figures. I’m going to scrutineer and miss the growing frustration as East coast psephologists like Antony Green wait for the West. Wonder if you can take a mobile into the booth.

Kevin Rennie
Labor View from Broome
http://laborview.blogspot.com/

]]> By: Spiros http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80067 Spiros Mon, 20 Aug 2007 07:41:38 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80067 "If you’ve been following Brian’s graphs at Ozpolitics there’s a steady trend back towards Howard." According to these graphs Labor is tracking exactly as the Coalition was in 1995-96. “If you’ve been following Brian’s graphs at Ozpolitics there’s a steady trend back towards Howard.”

According to these graphs Labor is tracking exactly as the Coalition was in 1995-96.

]]> By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80066 steve Mon, 20 Aug 2007 07:17:06 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80066 Tis <a href="http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/08/17/alp-scores-rate-rise-first-blood/" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Tis here.

]]> By: Mark http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80065 Mark Mon, 20 Aug 2007 07:11:27 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80065 I'm with Ken. I think complacency with the election result is misplaced at this stage of the game. I still think Labor are odds on to win, but the Libs are obviously going to use the strategy of throwing so much mud and blindsiding their opponents so often that even if they stink themselves, so will Labor. It might not work, but that's their play. I’m with Ken. I think complacency with the election result is misplaced at this stage of the game. I still think Labor are odds on to win, but the Libs are obviously going to use the strategy of throwing so much mud and blindsiding their opponents so often that even if they stink themselves, so will Labor.

It might not work, but that’s their play.

]]> By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80064 steve Mon, 20 Aug 2007 07:07:44 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/20/the-latham-effect/#comment-80064 Ken, see possum pollytics latest graph. Nothing for the tories to get excited about. Ken, see possum pollytics latest graph. Nothing for the tories to get excited about.

]]>