A lot of people around the joint seem to assume the Howard demon has been slain. But yesterday Howard got a clear message out while Rudd was trying to convince people he hadn’t been feeling up strippers. When was the last time you can remember Labor making a policy announcement? Forget “avoid the wedge”, the Labor small target strategy has conceded the media cycle to the government. The Coalition spent the first half of the year flailing around, but I suspect the leaking of the Crosby/Textor strategy was to signal they now had a game plan. My bet at the moment would be that we’re heading either for a narrow government win or a big Labor win. But I think the former has become significantly more likely. More on this later, but I’d like to highlight just a little bit of what Paul Keating said back in June.
The answer is because [of] the Labor Party’s inability to get across the argument and put it.
The Labor Party is not going to profit from having these proven unsuccessful people around who are frightened of their own shadow and won’t get out of bed in the morning unless they’ve had a focus group report to tell them which side of bed to get out.
They don’t have the structure or the creativity or the passion or the belief to go and grab the prize. They don’t understand a victory.
Discuss.
The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
It may be a bit harsh but “the devil you know” may be a better proposition if the economy tanks/terror attack/unforeseen happens.
It will get to the stage of either the ALP really does have some nasties they dont want to reveal (which will be the Lib line), or they really dont have a reform agenda when they obtain power and hope to muddle through. The Australian public demands difference between its parties, even at the expense of offending the extremes of both parties.
(And it kills me to admit Keating was spot on with this observation)
Yes, Howard on 7.5 tonight tried to push that line, but it was all crap.
I think a strong Ruddian narrative is out there, but it needs pushing and reinforcing.
ie Productivity, skills, education is the road to a sustainable economy post-boom. Broadband initiative reinforced this, and prodded the government into following.
When Howard regurgitated the Textor spin, Kerry listed about 5 areas of solid ALP policy, and Howard just changed the topic. ie the line doesnt actually withstand scrutiny.
Howard’s other line was that “he just agrees with me, or follows the unions”
In fact, I can think of more examples of the coalition following labor around – on broadband, education, climate.
Having said all that: it IS time for more policy from Rudd, if only to kill this latest line they’re spinning. How about Childcare Ruddster? And restate the prodcutivity credientials he came out of the blocks with: despite the bollocks they ranted over Rudd’s reading of the budget papers, productivity is in fact woeful (even if it may be 0.25% above 0, or whatever it was). Workchoices wont be helping that either.
Rudd’s advtange is that people want to believe in him, and are ready to dump Howard quick smart if it looks sound.
Wedges avoided, tick – now back to key messages.
There was nothing Kevin could do to avoid losing control of the media cycle yesterday. The media refused to ask him any question that wasn’t stripper related, yet media consumers were over it completely and looking for something else to listen to.
PS Last announcement I recall was rental affordability, and housing affrdability before that.
Not big ticket items, but all the same. Im seriously questioning this line at the moment, with my noted caveats above.
Let me say this: when did you last here a new policy out of Howard?
Yesterday, he came up with a motherhood statement of 5 broad goals for the next term, none of which could really be described as a policy (except perhaps the 1% GDP surplus, which was nicked from the ALP anyway) – solely, it appears, so he could run this bodgy Textor line on Rudd today.
Other than that, its been deranged, spot-fire random pork drops masquarading as public policy.
Suffice to say, Im not convinced it puts him back in the game.
If Rudd’s smart, and I believe he is, we’ll soon get some major policy on childcare, then there’s Howards upcoming nuclear fallout, which has barely commenced.
Plenty of ammo for the campaign.
Again though – I agree, Rudd doesnt want to do any Lathos, like leaving family benefit, Tas Trees, and Med Gold to the last minute.
But there is always the problem that Labor have to win 16 seats to gain office. Or form a coalition with a couple of independents. 16 seats have to swing. Some by margins of up to 5%. Which as always raises the problem that some peoples’ votes simply carry more weight under our current electoral arrangements & you can, as Labor has done, win both the primary & two-part preferred vote & still not gain government.
16 seats is an enormous ask, & I’d have to agree The White Rabbit’s efforts in the last week, as well as the S.S. Subprime Mortgage Debacle, has just made that a wee bit harder & a wee bit more unlikely. I’d run the same odds on Maxine doing him in Bennelong as Kevin has overall.
Which means I’m moving to NZ early next year. Coming?
Oh, yes, and not to mention Howard’s almighty and desperate backflips on IR, prompted by Rudd’s dramatically different policy stance.
Bascially, Howard’s been sniffing Rudd’s bum for a clue about whats going on in the electorate for at least the last 6 months.
Now he’s mounted a crazy wedge onslaught for 4 weeks, created a media smokescreen which has made it difficult for Rudd to remain proactive – and launched this Textor spin in the confusion.
I give it 5 minutes. The ALP HQ has actually been doing fine, IMHO – but yes, no complacency – back on the front foot, ladies and gents.
Bernice, as others have pointed out the peculiar patterns of the 2004 vote means that in fact many, many more seats are in play than a simple electoral pendulum would suggest. If Rudd gets the votes he’ll get the seats – in fact a massacre of libs would be likely.
I think the million dollar question is, is Kevin planning to hit hard with policy but waiting so that Howard et al. can’t neutralise it before the campaign proper begins, or are they seriously expecting dissatisfaction with Howard to be enough? I am still optimistic that the former is true – if nothing else, Rudd gives the impression of someone who knows what needs to be done to win.
Howard is definitely on message at the moment, and the economic turmoil has helped him to get there. His Millennium Forum speech was strong, clear and implied a greater vision than I think he actually has. At the same time, the coalition has been off track as often as Labor lately, and the Haneef appeal may throw them out again for a while. But I agree with your central point – relying on their self-destruction is folly, and they need to be beaten because they won’t just lose.
The electoral split is basically 35% rusted on for both majors, 10% non votes (5% no shows & 5% spoiled – consistent for the last 30yrs), up to 10% for Indepenednets & minor parties and the crucial, cretinous 10% who actually believe the b/s flung about during the campaign.
Or worse, make up their ‘minds’ (?sic!?)as they enter the polling booths.
That means about 1 million people so pig ignorant, selfish & greedy as to want what is promised by T/dum or T/dumber and stupid enough to think they’ll get it after the stolen goods auction .. err.. election.
I wonder when they are going to start the WorkChoices Part 2 narrative?
Theses Business Adds run for the government warning of great drama if WorkChoices is wound back show a list of countries Australia will sink below, and shows Australia starting as having the 8th best standard of living.
These Adds embarrassingly prove that unionism is the most economically successful system in the world! Seven of the eight countries with the world’s highest standard of living also have the highest unionised workforces in the world. Here is the level of union membership in six of those countries; Luxembourg 66%, Ireland 38%, Norway 55%, Iceland 85%, Finland 71% and Sweden 82%. Most of these countries have unfair dismissal laws and legislation guaranteeing the right to union representation. Most recently the Canadian high court rejected WorkChoices laws as transcending the basic international human right of being represented by a union. This is exactly what Mr Howard and Business are trying to destroy.
Indeed, Kina. I can see the ACTU “highlighter pen” ads right now.
Rudd cant afford to be complacent, no.
But Howard cant afford to relax for a second. He’s up right against the wall; and trouble in Bennelong wont make his campaign any easier this time.
… Lets just hope Rudd doesnt have any actual deep dark secrets.
Well the problem for the Alternate Liberal Party is that they are damned by the media if they do say something and damned if they don’t.
And the Greens [and Dems] can say what they like, they’ll either be ignored or misquoted.
So there really are no alternate policies or viewpoints out there in the media.
Take tonight for example.
Johnny and his best friend announce, only a few months after the budget, that they found a few billion $$$s under the bed.
And this was presented on TV with a straight face and without snickers or incredulous comment from the news presenters.
Yet it was done in the frame of aren’t we wonderful and don’t we manage the economy real extra good terrific!
Er…no.
A competent financial manager doesn’t suddenly find a huge sum of money from nowhere.
Imagine walking into the room where your spouse/partner is and saying ” Guess what dear I just found $27.000 in my wallet/purse”.
Response?
So this glaring inconsistency does not even slightly touch the media and Coalition inspired perception that the Coalition are good economic managers and people will wake up to this just before the election and vote Coalition.Self fulfilling prophecy.
I’ve lost count as to how many times I’ve seen how low unemployment is proudly announced….without analysis.
Sound bite.
Well it isn’t low, its in the vicinity of 10-15% as numerous studies inc the 2005 Senate Inquiry into Poverty has shown.And ACOSS as well.
I dunno what the ALP can do.
Say nothing, or very little, and risk losing?
Say something and risk losing?
In reality its a tactical question and it shouldn’t be.
It should be a question of policy principles and people.
And it should have started mid Oct.2004.
But they have been so timid for so long maybe they don’t know any other way.
Yes.
I would be extremely surprised if Rudd hasn’t got policy proposals to burn.
I suspect that he will set the agenda (or at least attempt to) once the election is announced.
Mark said:
OTOH one could argue that all the silly hype about strippers actually robbed Howard’s message of media oxygen. Guess we’ll have to wait for Dennis Sham-I-am to tell us how that worked out.
Seems to me that Rudd was announcing a new policy every other day just a month or two back, maybe anticipating a pre-APEC election. Now he’s shadowing Howard (didn’t work too well for John Kerry, BTW) and waiting for the real show to begin.
I was encouraged by Rudd’s earlier policy initiatives (many of which Howard quickly copied) but now I am turning strongly to the Greens. I suspect the minor parties could still be in for a good showing if anti-Rudd sentiment grows: those who turn against Rudd wont necessarily stick with the Rodent.
Yep, wpd. And lets recall the budget reply – it wasnt waffle, it wasnt wedge avoidance, and it had a vision.
As I said then, Rudd doesnt even need a winning vision, merely a competent and credible one. People are sick of Rodent. They wont vote him out if the opposition has nothing to offer – but he’s so on the nose that the opposition doesnt need to comprehensively ‘win’ the economic vision battle. Just being a contender will do.
While Workchoices is out there – achieving that level of competitiveness aint that difficult.
Much of this comment is redundant until JWH calls the election. Why should KR show his hand before then, After all it is JWH who has to make up ground and I still believe that voters are not listening to much that he has to say. Nervous KR are the ones paying attention, But that does not help JWH.
Except that there’s a narrative starting to develop, helped along by the business ads and editorials by the GG’s tame pundits, that Labor’s IR reforms will do severe economic damage. The recent downturn in the markets seems to have helped drive it along. I’m not convinced that it will work given the strength of anti-WorkChoices views, but if there is a fear Howard can play on, it might be that the current IR regime will help the economy weather any hiccups. But this could be countered by pointing out that what WorkChoices does is create a situation where, if the economy heads south, employers can quickly and easily ditch expensive staff and force down pay and conditions to make sure they remain profitable, at the expense of their employees’ well-being.
I don’t agree with this “Rudd’s keeping mum” consensus. Things have been entirely swamped recently by the dance of the indigenous intervention and the sitting of parliament, during which the ALP appear to have been entirely tied up with the important business of carping at the Government, as you do when you don’t have ministerial resources at your disposal and have to make do with prioritising your staff’s time.
The last policy announcement, on housing I think, was just before the sitting period. There was a brief couple of days entirely focussed on Kevin Scoring right after the sitting period, clearly a government calculation to ensure that the ALP game plan got a bit stuffed up, and now just today I was told all about how electric hot water systems would be phased out under a Rudd government, which I imagine is the first pacings of post-sitting period policy roar that should have happened on Sunday evening were it not for Stripper-gate.
Man, I should be working in communications.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/index.php
This is what I was on about:
“My simple maths suggests that the government was therefore wrong by a margin of 27%, all in the space of three months.
In a rational world, this news would be greeted with one of the following two reactions:
- Teh Economy is actually a big wild beast that does pretty much whatever it wants without paying any attention to the likes of Tip Costello, or
- Tip is so incredibly incompetent his forecasts don’t come within a bull’s roar of reality.
Needless to say neither point has been given much breathing space.”
Whatever you feel about the cynicism of Howard’s strategy at the moment you can’t deny its working. The polls clearly show the government’s slowly but very steadily made up about 5% on the 2PP in the last three months. That might not be enough for them to win by December, but if Labor strategist can look at that trend and think they’re doing alright at the moment they deserve to lose.
In 2004 Howard picked interest rates as his strategy, stuck with it hard and it worked. Labor never got their act together and developed a counter strategy.
Today Howard has decided attacking the states is his strategy. In my opinion it is even better than interest rates and its working. Labor has to work out a counter strategy and make it stick or they will be losing fights on this all the way to election. Personally I would move for a Health and Public Education swap between the states and federal government as John Quiggin suggested in the lead up to 2004, but frankly I don’t care what it is. I just want to know Labor strategists are thinking about this. Right now I feel like Labor is a football team that’s gotten so used to losing they’re just happy to be in front at half time, which is not the attitude of a successful team.
On the polls, note Peter Brent aka Mumble in Crikey today:
I don’t think any result, at this stage, is a foregone conclusion although the government still has quite a bit of work to do before it can bridge the gap.
I do agree though that the ALP needs to get on the front foot. The strip club fracas has already run out of legs so let’s hope we start seeing some proactive announcements by the end of the week.
My one query is how much more does the ALP have up its sleeve in the way of policy that will appeal to the broader community?
Would love it if someone can provide some insight on this.
But Ratty’s personal numbers are down, both as preferred PM and as an economic manager.
It would appear to me that the Libs are making their gains, such as they are, not because of Ratty, but despite him.
Not that I expect the guttering flame of opposition to Howard within the Liberal Party to flare up. The Libs seem to be content to be buried with Ratty, just like retainers of some defunct Chinese Emperor.
But at least those Chinese eunuchs were given their balls back.
Oh no doubt, wpd.
But remember Medicare Gold and Swan’s non-existent benefit numbers… if you leave it to the campaign there’s endless potential for all sorts of swiftboating as you get drowned in negative attacks not just from the gov’t but also from all of their craven interest group supporters. And you don’t have time to respond properly because it’s now day #6 of the campaign not day #5 and the agenda has moved on.
That’s the big danger of the small target strategy.
‘
Yeah, Lefty E, but it needed to be sold. Who out there in voterland remembers it now?
And arleeshar – sure but that’s what Keating was warning about – a bunch of dessicated wannabe Westwingers planning out “message for the week” flow charts for the next six months. Where’s the tactical manoevring in Labor’s strategy?
And look at the response of Kevin07′s own Qld candidates – they’ve been shitting bricks over the council stuff. They’re probably vastly overstating the importance of it but it doesn’t speak to a confident mob capable of holding their nerve.
And Katz, the preferred PM numbers are bullshit predictors of voting intention and when Paul Kelly claimed that “economic management” drove “voting intention” he was wrong and he’s still wrong. The worst sort of poll interpretation is a reverse Shanahan – focus on one poll and pick out the best numbers for Labor. Swio’s right – the trend has been back to the coalition. Labor have to design something to respond to that not just sit on their bums hoping to win as “not Howard”.
As my comment acknowledged…
It does not matter when you announce policy if it has holes or you are unable to defend it. KR and team must get it right, but also try and maintain some element of surprise. After all the “policy Launch” during the campaign proper has to have something in it!
True Kim, but my general point is that Rudd isnt actually a running small target campaign.
He running a very clever wedge avoidance strategy, and then blindsiding Howard regularly on the policy front. With more to come. And Howard playing ctachup more than vice versa.
I guess Im saying: one week without a policy – given Stripper gate and other irrelevancies – is hardly a reason to go to panic stations and start bagging ALP HQ.
But then, who am I kidding – Im nervous as all hell too!
Kim, I agree that there are dangers in Rudd’s approach. But unlike Latham’s amateurish attempts at policy development, (Civilizing Global Capital is the classical example), Rudd’s approach will have a coherence.
BTW, I have been travelling for the past few weeks and only returned home today.
To my surprise, Kevin Rudd was in a strip club of his own volition.
Impossible!
Yeah, because PJK and his macroeconomic reform won so many Labor Governments from opposition. I love him, but fuck he rates himself.
I predict if Labor win, they’ll be given no credit—here or anywhere else—for whatever good job they might have done in opposition, yet should they lose, they’ll cop a supreme bucket of shit from all sides and into every convenient clothing gap, sleeve and neck and belt and ohhhh, everywhere. Kim and Mark, be fair at least. The ‘small target’ strategy you so despise is a defensive measure against a hostile media establishment, always keen to sling out on shady stripper stories, but somehow unwilling to run objective reportage of the Shadow Minister for Basketweaving Promotion’s strategy for dealing with the ageing crisis. You can’t say that keeping to a disciplined ‘message’ is not a valid strategy.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve a bucket to fill. I haven’t decided on a target yet, I think I’ll let it brew for a while.
This is the text of a comment I was submitting to the Poll Bludger but unfortunately I get a message saying that the owner’s bandwith has been exceeded. But I think it is relevant to this thread.
Given the current poll position the question that arises is what would turn it around for Howard. While today’s Newspoll in reality had no Rudd in NY effect, it did follow the Mersey hospital saga, the Queensland council amalgamation, Adelaide freeways. The electorate had been introduced to Federal oversight of the states, but the view on PPM and economic management worsened.
The PM has now introduced “aspirational nationalism”, the most meaningless phrase since “incentivation” ( apologies to Ken L at the Road to Surfdom who also makes this point). This is in stark contrast to the simple and clear message “we will choose who comes to Australia”. Somehow the ability to convey a simple and clear message to Australians has been lost. The ability to tune into current concerns is missing. The reliance on the Crosby/Textor message to blame the states is adopted without the intuitive understanding to make it work.
There is something missing this time around from the Howard camp. Whether it is individuals like Sinodinos or whether it is a consequence of Howard getting older and more out of touch, I dont know. But it does raise in my mind the question, is it necessarily true that Howard will gain ground in the campaign itself. It could well be that with the even more heightened focus during the campaign, the mechanisms by which Rudd has been able to connect with the populace and Howard lose touch will be exacerbated. Is it possible that Rudd may in fact win the campaign and Howard not be able to narrow the gap?
In my view it is not clear that Howard is on message. I think the range of signals that are being sent out are just as likely to be confusing to the electorate.
Howard always comes from behind and play the underdog. He is doing it again. Labor went for wedge minimisation under Beazley and went down. Keating is dead right, they risk doing it again.
Latham got Howard on the back foot by reading kids books – doing something different – even climbing his stupid neo-Liberal ladder of opportunity. Then he lost the game of cat & mouse with the rat, and self destructed with a train wreck. Of course, running his campaign as a cell within Labor was alway going to be tough. Is Rudd actually making the same mistake?
I was at a meeting on the Iraq war listening to Matt Howard (US Iraq war vet) recount its full horrors – yes, it is even worse than you have heard via our sanitised media. Labor is only committing to a “negotiated staged withdrawal”. Many people were not happy with this soft policy, particularly with so many still being killed.
Labor hasn’t ruled out doing a preference deal with Family First – even though their preferences electing FF resulted in the Senate rubber stamping Work Choices, VSU etc. Labor rank and file doesn’t support expanded uranium mining, but Kevin07 and Peter Garrett do. And Labor’s climate change policy is almost totally lame – they will all be dead by the time 2050 comes along.
I think Rudd better get a wriggle on, or we will all get a nasty shock when Howard gets relected. It aint over ’till the fat man in fishnet stockings sings.
maybe, Kim. I don’t know. Just seems to me there are multiple reasons for Labor going quiet for two weeks, because really it has only been two weeks, count’em.
Also, much as I loathe the ALP response to the indigenous stuff, it was clearly an instance of tactical manoevring – whatever else they had planned for that session was wiped out and they were forced to consider new modes of attack/defense, and they do seem to have sapped the victory air from the outcome. From what I can gather, they’re all congratulating themselves on dog-whistling their intentions on the issue to the community sector/left via their amendments to the bill that never got passed, while maintaining the Today Tonight audience through outward grunts of redneckism or something.
Apologies, Katz. Though I’ve been to strip clubs, I need more forgiveness for reading too quickly and not carefully enough.
Lefty E, yep, sure, but like I’m saying they need follow through. Ducking for cover while teh lastest war on x absorbs all the media attention deprives them of that.
Course not, Liam, but that doesn’t mean it’s the right message. Anyway, weren’t you meant to be the counter-triumphalist around these parts?
You may be right, arleeshar. I don’t think the post is saying the gov’t are winning, just that they have a plausible strategy now and Labor has to be fleet of foot and not stuck in a freeze frame anal “but this is the message of the week” mode.
And Liam’s point about Keating and opposition might have some validity, he was a pretty heavy policy hitter as a shadow himself I understand. Admittedly there’s the “I wuz robbed by the machine” thing going, but hey, the man was a fighter.
Perterc… come on mate take a couple of deep breathes. JWH has been in flat out election mode this whole year and not a lot to show for it. The voters are not listerning.
Well said Arleeshar. Like reason 1), that reports of ALP silence on issue X may or may not have any relationship with actual ALP silence on issue X, 2), that national reportage of the activities of the FPLP may or may not correspond with the actual activities of the FPLP, reason 3), that national reportage may carry significant structural and party-political biases unacknowledged by weblog commenters driven by news.com hyperlinking.
Pessimism is my name, I’m Jeremiah in a felt hat.
I fail to see how anyone could possible vote for the Liberal party knowing what they have done and how they operate and the damage they have done to democracy and intend to do. It defys belief that knowing this anybody could unless they have no care for the future of this country and especially for our democratic systems.
Some Howard supporters might think they are being clever by simply following him regardless. I have voted for him twice but I have had a closer look, and looked at the picture as a whole and have become quite disgusted. His hasn’t just been a stale or bad government, this is a government on a mission to destroy the mechanisms that support democracy and, help the incumbent remain in power indefinately. This is truly no joke, no partisan barracking or foot teams going at it. This time it is very serious.
Unfortunately many of the punters barely take an interest in what happens around them. Their attitude simply lets the government bit by bit dismantle structures and couching them in paternalistic words.
It truly will be the majority getting what they deserve. I for one have had some serious discussions with my wife about selling up and going overseas should Howard win, and maybe coming back in the future, or not.
Howard truly represents a danger to many things. WorkChoices in delivering workers bound hand and foot to business is just one aspect of what he is planning.
Liam, yeah, there’s a media filter. But Rudd’s strength is meant to be “cutting through” remember. And you can always find out how much policy they’re putting out there through the ALP website. There might even be some on Kevin07 for all I know. As well as beach towels.
Well I’m keeping my powder dry. You never quite know exactly when an “pour encourager les autres” moment will come along.
Hehe. Turnbull might need to buy another seat:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22286298-601,00.html
Can’t say that I trust Galaxy this year. It was accurate one election year by design or by good luck, it luckily found the right sample but I don’t buy accepting it as being right and all other pollsters wrong simply because it got it right in the past.
Morgan has been getting it right in 2006 in the state elections and got the primary right last federal election as well. Its primary votes have been consistently lower than all other pollsters. I will be adding that 1 or 2 back on until I see the other pollsters primary votes for Labor fall to similar levels.
Just coz Rudd’s finally now coming off a prolonged honeymoon don’t mean all is lost – or that the strategy has to be binned. Those were high numbers. Now we head back to reality and the shit fight we have to have.
And even the most obtuse amongst us who refuse to credit Howard with any political ability at all will admit that Howard is a fighter.
Peterc, you may want to think a little more about what you’re actually upset about. Are you worried that Labor isn’t on the front foot policy-wise, or are you annoyed because you don’t really like some of the policies you already know about?
Here’s the great Australian Labor Party taking a strong stand as usual:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22286160-2702,00.html
Of course Howard will win.
The trend line of the Galaxy poll results shows a cliff-hanger by November. He knows what he needs to do to nudge him over the line.
He has public servants in Parliament House systematically compiling dirt files on the Labor front bench.
He will spend many more tens of millions of dollars of public money to advertise government (Liberal Party) policy
He has billions in a budget surplus that will be carefully doled out to marginal seats.
The rabbit is sitting in the hat, waiting: the para-military wing of the Liberal Party (aka the Australian Federal Police) will produce a terrorist scare at just the right time.
Rudd is keeping his powder dry for the “real” election campaign, and frustrating as it is, it looks like it might work. Take him at his word, he is messing with Howard’s head, and it has been effective, periodically. With only a moving target in front of him, Howard has been forced to the radical edge with his business union advertising, the NT invasion, and his ferocious attacks on the states. Howard will pay for all this in the end.
I see no reason why Rudd should announce all his policy platform now, given the polls are traveling in his favour. Better to dribble it out at the margins and wait for the big kill in the final six weeks, when Howard’s record of frantic vote-buying will be there for all to see, and Rudd will know exactly how much he can spend himself. Howard will be the sitting duck.
But hey, I do love Keating’s ability to say it as he sees it….
I agree Kim, the response prima facie looks pissweak, but (and in that “but” are a thousand evils) there’s an appeal to the full court of the Federal Court, which the government could possibly win. In which case with Labor coming out now in favour of Haneef would leave them open to an implied “soft on terrorism” charge if the full court reversed the decision of the single judge. Then again if the full court upheld the decision there’s the chance of further appeal to the High Court.
Much as I also dislike the ALP’s lack of “strong stand” pragmatism dictates holding fire until the legal process is finalised. Exactly as with the original support of Andrews.
Avoiding the wedge is the sad but sorry state of affairs–there is much danger for the ALP in going off half cocked until the legal dust settles.
While I understand Grace’s point about Rudd keeping his powder dry, there is clearly a danger here that he dries up entirely.
He or someone in the Labor Party (Tanner preferably) needs to start showing some passion. They need to fire people up and inspire them, because I sure as hell see no evidence of anything representing inspiration at the moment.
That was Keating’s great strength – the power of conviction and an ability to light a fire in people’s bellies.
Here’s someone worried but not complacent.
There are two things that I wanted more than anyn other. One is for the Australian National Football Team to qualify for the World Cup, and the other for the Howard government to be defeated.
One has been achieved. But by the scruff of the neck. Despite having one of the best coaches in the world, having a Qantas jet being refurbished as a medical massage area etc. it was down to penalties. I expect something similar at election time.
I am mildly irritated by all the gloating about the polls. “Howard is finished”. The Libs are going to be slaughtered”.
Rubbish.
If the ALP just tries to coast through the election they will end up like the National Team at the Asian Cup. The favourites had egg over their faces.
I can’t fail to grasp why the ALP honchos don’t realise that this nation is desperately looking for positives. A positive energy, something to make feel good about ourselves.
Howard wins by negatives, but while this is a successful strategy it covers the nations with fear.
I am not saying we should go for Withlamesque economic policies. But peoplem like Withlam, Hawke and Keating had a message – a positive one about where this country could be heading.
I can’t hear Rudd giving that message.
Well … Christian Kerr called it for Howard in Crikey yesterday:
I must say, I felt more comfortable when Howard was scrambling to catch up on broadband, climate change and housing affordability.
I (and a good chunk of bleary-eyed milddle-class suburbia) heard on “Sunrise” this morning that Sydney is gunna be “flooded with protestors and militants and extremists” for APEC, causing “11 days of chaos”.
And just who are these “protestors and militants and extremists”? Lemme see: environmentalists, unionists and socialists, of course. There’s even hints and allegations that “high school children are being recruited” to take part.
Wonder if this is yer rabbit?
Kerr is wrong. Howard’s rooted.
You heard it here first!
Woooo!!
Excitable mob, you inhabitants of Keating Towers!
Watching Howard make it up as he goes along suggest to me that Rudd is sensible to wait until the outlines of Howard’s latest “plan for the future”, are clearer and the reaction in voterland has been allowed to wash through.
For example, Howard flailing around now with “aspirational nationalism” (code for massive and unheralded constitutional change) looks to me like it was concocted on the back of an envelope only yesterday, as a post hoc justification for his recent focus group driven attack on the states. People are only just beginning to see the consequences for the future.
There are positives for Rudd here in seeing how this plays out as an idea, picking apart the obvious problems over the next few weeks in response to voter concerns and media analysis, and resolving it into a more coherent (me-better) narrative closer to polling day when he could announce a big ticket agenda on constitutional change (including perhaps the republic).
After all, empowering local governments and withering away the states was ALP policy under Whitlam, and the ALP has a credible history of trying to persuade the electorate through referendums in precisely this direction. Howard’s history of opposing such moves, as a once avid states-righter, is on the historical record, and his opportunistic hypocrisy only needs to be exposed.
On another point, Howard and his ministers have been running negative campaigns against Rudd since the beginning of this year and they have not played out well in the polls. Voters don’t like this sort of cheap character assassination outside an election period. Rudd has not responded in kind, he is relentlessly positive, and its driving Howard nuts. Good tactics, leaving Rudd looking like a clean-skin for now. But I am looking forward to a really nasty, negative ALP campaign against Howard and his cronies during the election period, and in order to ensure maximum advantage it is wise to stay positive for now and wait until all Howard’s runs are on the board.
And yes Mr Denmore, I miss Keating’s passion too. But we are a smaller minded, more easily spooked people these days. That’s reality. Howard really has changed us as a nation, not the least through his huge immigration program. Those Serfchoices ads featuring three ugly union thugs/bosses might make most of us laugh in disbelief, but they not aimed at us, they are aimed at new australians running small businesses who have never known this country without Howard.
Hannah…exactly how I saw it…these dipsticks think they can pull the wool over the voters eyes anytime they see fit because they’re so used to having the mainstream media spin for them…but the citizenry are awakening, some journos are stretching their legs, the blogs are scrutinising intensely & consequently the Howard/Costello/Abbott/Downer antics are starting to wear very thin.
I reckon Labor’s gonna make some big Health Care announcements real soon.
If you want to finish Labor’s chances, then do the big grand vision stuff.
I admire Keating. But he is simply wrong on this point.
We can be romantic all we like – that a wonderful nice positive message will somehow miraculously trascend the fact that a lot of people are ill-informed and responsive to negative populist crap. Everyone talks about the need for positive stuff – but when do positives actually win?????
I beg to disagree David.
Labor can give a positive message about Australia and Australians and also put out rigorous policy. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Of course if Labor only relied on whishy whashy ‘vision’ thing it would lose. But what I think it would benefit Labor is if they construct a narrative about what they see Australia to be in the future and what type of policies they will implement to get there.
Howard tried to formulate a narrative yesterday (which was nothing new). Labor needs to do the same. Positives in campaign make people feel good, rather than be fearful. People respond more to positives than negatives, and it would reduce the perception by some that Labor is a copy of the Government.
There have been plenty of times when positive messages won elections: ‘It’s Time’ in 1972, and even 1975 the Liberals’ “Let’s turn on the light’ was based on a positive premise. And in 1983 Hawke talked about consensus a lot.
It is a sign of how Howard has shifted the paradigm that fear and loathing seems to be the way to win elections these days.
On another matter Mumble makes an interesting comparison between 1996 and now.
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I didn’t think about that, but I reckon you’re on to something.
I’ll count Howard finished after election results are declared and he has lost Government, not before.
It’s been reported here and elsewhere that Rudd’s strategy has been to try and “personalise” issues; i.e. bring them down from “vision” and broad-brush to an individual’s daily impact: Affordability, Broadband, WorkChoices, Education, etc.
So while Howard and Costello have been banging the drum on “the economy” and how wonderful they are is; he’s also gone “small” with specific marginal electorate pork-barreling (Braddon, Eden-Monaro, SA marginals, etc.) and bring it to a “personal-impact” and slef-acknowledged populist Fed vs. State level such as the Qld local government interjection.
He’s followed through with “the Fed can do it better” establishing Surplus-sucking investment funds that are in turn dependent on successful economic growth for both their source funding and investment growth. Come a broad market downturn and deficit budgets, where does this strategy go? Am I wrong? If not why hasn’t this been questioned?
There was a nice commentary on AM this morning on how evidence is that the Fed has consistently under-funded the States as a source of this “‘surplus”.
Not true… This fact is well known in professional political operatives – they know their business.
Notice how all the examples you point to are rather old?
Politics has changed for the worse. The goal is to change it for the better, but it’s a lot easier to agenda shift once you’re already elected.
Look what just got delivered to the PM’s Office.
I’m apprehensive about the potential for some US hedge fund to fall over and in the resultant panic the rodent to make huge capital out of his and Cossie’s ‘economic experience’. They are aready doing it and KR is trying to respond with the fiscal conservative ads, but it has the potential to swamp the ALP. Already the exposure of some local government councils to this market is looming. Who would have thought it.
Equally the drop in the $A will probably mean a big slug in petrol prices soon, although I get the impression the refiners are keen to keep this volatile issue off the election agenda.
The temptation for JWH to fiddle with petrol excise must be countered by KR
I probably agree with you there. Depressing though.
Having to disagree with you Mark. The strategy has worked well in the face of the inevitable wedging and smears. The Howard initiatives are falling apart, even the take over of the hospital in NW Tasmania, with the suggestion on SBS Dateline last night it could cause loss of life.
Now as the government seeks to focus on Labor policies, the ALP response will be say, “name the election day”. The pressure will be on Howard.
This is so obvious it has probably been said before.
[Manual trackback]
How’s won’t talk with ‘extremist cults‘ grab you as a POD?
mark says:
Why bother making sweeping policy proposals to the general public, which just cost money that could be thrown at special interests, when you are well ahead? If you already have the public eating out of your hand there is no need to offer sweetners.
mark says:
The LN/P “game plan” is to use “all available”, as they say to the Arty when a position is overrun. They have run out of new policy ideas, juicy federal targets and plausible bragging rights. It happens to everyone if they hang around long enough in the one job, its called getting stale.
mark says:
How much are you betting? Youd need a massive stake to make any money on such a soft each-way flutter. A 10% range on the two-party preferred vote is not a big risk. That is about half the possible range.
My own prediction, made back in June 2006, is that the ALP will win, and probably comfortably, in 2007. I predict a repetition of the 1983 result is most probable. Something like a 53-47 two-party preferred split.
I dont have data bases amassed or formulas handy to predict what kind of seat distribution would flow from this macro-political result. There are plenty of others better qualified to do this. The micro-politics would probably favour Howard, given his history of sucessful targetted spending in marginal seats.
But it wont be enough to save him. Rudd has every policy that Howard has, without the nasty politics.
I am fairly confident that Howard will retain his seat. He starts as sentimental favourite.
mark says:
I will grant you that quoting Keating on political strategy is better than quoting Derrida on philosophy. But it would take a sharp man to pick it as this late stage of the game.
Keating’s “sweetest victory” occurred when he let the other guy make the running with brave new worlds of policy. Hewson “certainly had plenty of passion or the belief to go and grab the prize.” A lot of good it did him.
That has to be the only thing Jack has ever said that I agree with.
There was the broadband policy… which I think was masterly. Popular with young people, good for business, and most importantly, completely inoffensive. That’s the kind of thing we need to remind people that the government can actually play an active role in developing services that more or less benefit everybody.
What Jack said! (with the caveat that Rudd will need to turn original ‘productivity, beyond the boom’ pitch into a mantra by election day)
Hannah:
In the media perhaps …. but I would not be surprised at all if there were “alternative policies or viewpoints” circulating among voters out there. Ones being circulated by highly-disciplined, tightly-organized and VERY NASTY groups operating way below the radar. Groups far, far worse than anything One Nation could ever be. I await their emergence with dread – and it our complacency that has made their rise to power inevitable.
Robin Hood over at the Road To Surfdom made a very good point about Labor not having alternative policies but mirror policies.
“Robin Hood over at the Road To Surfdom made a very good point about Labor not having alternative policies but mirror policies”
maybe you’re right GB…maybe i’m justifying a political system…& a Party that SUCKS
but…go ahead and fight phantoms like i have.
i’m heading back to my wife, garden and music.
and if they come this way to bulldozer our house w/ their laws…then they’ve got a real battle on their hands.
until i start hearing REAL policy, i couldn’t be bothered…until my efforts are appreciated i won’t talk & write anymore…until YOU bastards who manipulate us give a stuff about the Land i don’t intend to give you a moment of my attention…until you learn to love & breathe again…
it’s not the average person…it’s YOU
Jack’s brave each way bet in 2006.
Woah, here we go again. Mirror policy? Looking like magnifying glass policy to me – I’ll do that, but I’ll do it bigger and better…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22293659-1702,00.html
Both concern me – but mainly the Rudd refuses to seriously differentiate on things that I think really matter. Rudd going along with Howard’s racist “indigenous intervention” and forest hostile policies are a major concern. I think Rudd needs to really take it up to Howard – who could even be regarded by some as a war criminal, and most certainly is an environmental vandal.
Labor’s policy on climate change is quite lame and wimpish too.
However, their policy on broadband is one exception – I think they have got this right.
Howard is now controlling the agenda with his federal power grab beat up on the States and tear up the Constitution antics. Rudd and Labor are currently reactive to this and not getting a clear alternative message out.
I regard Labor and Rudd as simply being the lesser of two evils. We need some leadership and vision, not just cheap politicking based on marginal seats.
wbb on 22 August 2007 at 11:48 pm
wbb showing his customary level of intellectual honesty. Not visible to the naked eye, unfortunately.
The interest rates have risen and property boom have come off the boil. Which is a “good reason for Howard to lose the election”, at least out there in marginal electorate mortgage belt land.
More importantly, my hypothetical was made 36 mins earlier in the thread. During the course of the discussion I had another think about and reached this conclusion:
I stand by that prediction and its hypothetical assumptions.
While on the subject of psephologic prognostics, what testable electoral predictions have Mark, wbb, Nabakov et al made and when did they make them? [Stony silence lasting for about 900 years.]
Science means making theoretical predictions capable of empirical falsification. I dont see a whole lot of that around here.