But if the minerals boom continues to roar ahead and property prices stay buoyant then I see no reason for Howard to lose the next election.

Jack’s brave each way bet in 2006.

wbb showing his customary level of intellectual honesty. Not visible to the naked eye, unfortunately.

The interest rates have risen and property boom have come off the boil. Which is a “good reason for Howard to lose the election”, at least out there in marginal electorate mortgage belt land.

More importantly, my hypothetical was made 36 mins earlier in the thread. During the course of the discussion I had another think about and reached this conclusion:

I cannot take Centrebet’s odds on the LN/P winning the next election seriously. The [LN/P] have to start out as less favoured because of the return swing of the electoral pendulum and the attenuation of national security and cultural identity issues.

I stand by that prediction and its hypothetical assumptions.

While on the subject of psephologic prognostics, what testable electoral predictions have Mark, wbb, Nabakov et al made and when did they make them? [Stony silence lasting for about 900 years.]

Science means making theoretical predictions capable of empirical falsification. I dont see a whole lot of that around here.

Are you worried that Labor isn’t on the front foot policy-wise, or are you annoyed because you don’t really like some of the policies you already know about?

Both concern me – but mainly the Rudd refuses to seriously differentiate on things that I think really matter. Rudd going along with Howard’s racist “indigenous intervention” and forest hostile policies are a major concern. I think Rudd needs to really take it up to Howard – who could even be regarded by some as a war criminal, and most certainly is an environmental vandal.

Labor’s policy on climate change is quite lame and wimpish too.

However, their policy on broadband is one exception – I think they have got this right.

Howard is now controlling the agenda with his federal power grab beat up on the States and tear up the Constitution antics. Rudd and Labor are currently reactive to this and not getting a clear alternative message out.

I regard Labor and Rudd as simply being the lesser of two evils. We need some leadership and vision, not just cheap politicking based on marginal seats.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22293659-1702,00.html

But if the minerals boom continues to roar ahead and property prices stay buoyant then I see no reason for Howard to lose the next election.

Jack’s brave each way bet in 2006.

maybe you’re right GB…maybe i’m justifying a political system…& a Party that SUCKS

but…go ahead and fight phantoms like i have.

i’m heading back to my wife, garden and music.

and if they come this way to bulldozer our house w/ their laws…then they’ve got a real battle on their hands.

until i start hearing REAL policy, i couldn’t be bothered…until my efforts are appreciated i won’t talk & write anymore…until YOU bastards who manipulate us give a stuff about the Land i don’t intend to give you a moment of my attention…until you learn to love & breathe again…

it’s not the average person…it’s YOU

“And the Greens [and Dems] can say what they like, they’ll either be ignored or misquoted.
So there really are no alternate policies or viewpoints out there in the media”.

In the media perhaps …. but I would not be surprised at all if there were “alternative policies or viewpoints” circulating among voters out there. Ones being circulated by highly-disciplined, tightly-organized and VERY NASTY groups operating way below the radar. Groups far, far worse than anything One Nation could ever be. I await their emergence with dread – and it our complacency that has made their rise to power inevitable.

Robin Hood over at the Road To Surfdom made a very good point about Labor not having alternative policies but mirror policies.

When was the last time you can remember Labor making a policy announcement?

There was the broadband policy… which I think was masterly. Popular with young people, good for business, and most importantly, completely inoffensive. That’s the kind of thing we need to remind people that the government can actually play an active role in developing services that more or less benefit everybody.

When was the last time you can remember Labor making a policy announcement? Forget â??avoid the wedgeâ??, the Labor small target strategy has conceded the media cycle to the government.

Why bother making sweeping policy proposals to the general public, which just cost money that could be thrown at special interests, when you are well ahead? If you already have the public eating out of your hand there is no need to offer sweetners.

mark says:

The Coalition spent the first half of the year flailing around, but I suspect the leaking of the Crosby/Textor strategy was to signal they now had a game plan.

The LN/P “game plan” is to use “all available”, as they say to the Arty when a position is overrun. They have run out of new policy ideas, juicy federal targets and plausible bragging rights. It happens to everyone if they hang around long enough in the one job, its called getting stale.

mark says:

My bet at the moment would be that weâ??re heading either for a narrow government win or a big Labor win. But I think the former has become significantly more likely.

How much are you betting? Youd need a massive stake to make any money on such a soft each-way flutter. A 10% range on the two-party preferred vote is not a big risk. That is about half the possible range.

My own prediction, made back in June 2006, is that the ALP will win, and probably comfortably, in 2007. I predict a repetition of the 1983 result is most probable. Something like a 53-47 two-party preferred split.

I dont have data bases amassed or formulas handy to predict what kind of seat distribution would flow from this macro-political result. There are plenty of others better qualified to do this. The micro-politics would probably favour Howard, given his history of sucessful targetted spending in marginal seats.

But it wont be enough to save him. Rudd has every policy that Howard has, without the nasty politics.

I am fairly confident that Howard will retain his seat. He starts as sentimental favourite.

mark says:

More on this later, but Iâ??d like to highlight just a little bit of what Paul Keating said back in June.

I will grant you that quoting Keating on political strategy is better than quoting Derrida on philosophy. But it would take a sharp man to pick it as this late stage of the game.

Keating’s “sweetest victory” occurred when he let the other guy make the running with brave new worlds of policy. Hewson “certainly had plenty of passion or the belief to go and grab the prize.” A lot of good it did him.