An open thread where, at the mercy of your election-year mania, you may discuss various breaking politicking news that is not on topic for other current threads.
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My prediction is that APEC will be a flop. The security fence and disruption will p*ss off Sydneysiders, and the rest of the show will be long on posturing and short on content, so those of use living out in the “toenails” of the nation (as Jeff Kennett put it some years ago)will be unmoved.
John Howard has said as much when he said he is looking for aspirational goals on greenhouse gases, which means that the pre conference negotiations are complete, the communique has been written and that is he got out of it.
I think the last day will top it off with , as predicted, world leaders in Akubra and Drizabones (lets hope Sydney turns on a hot day), sans George W, and John Howard will look even more stupid than when he dons his Akubra and khaki shirt for his trips outside of the city limits (someone once described him as looking like a roofing nail).
This election is Labour’s to loose, for the first time in more than a decade, and I think Rudd and his leadership now know this, and Howard know it too. The campaign madness (and dirty tricks) will be coming from the Liberals this time as they look for the magic bullet to bring down a crusing Opposition.
I predict that the number of seats Labor will win in the House will be somewhere in the eighties. Enough to get the Budget through, but not enough to get trooby levers running away with themselves.
Notice how last night, in the wake of Rudd’s announcement of the details of his IR policy, the ‘Union of Australian Bosses’ - how else do you describe a collective of employers holding out for ‘their rights’? - stepped up their campaign in support of the Libs with even more ads. (No doubt there’s a mole at ALP HQ who must have tipped them off about the announcement.) Now as well as Central Casting ‘union thugs’ busting in on boutiques (please, give me that ad exec’s dealer’s number, that must be good stuff), we have happy miners extolling the virtues of dealing direct with their superiors for their remuneration.
No doubt the typical Australian voter will see it and say “good for you, but my boss is a greedy c**t and he’d happily give me the arse for not taking a cut in pay”. Hold your nerve, Rudd, and the election’s yours.
“Phaseout” of AWAs. Elimination of the right of entry for organisers to talk to their members. Balls.
I’m one of the most one-eyed Labor stooge commenters here, and I’m getting perilously close to apathy.
We get to vote for the Liberals or the Alternate Liberal Party. The real ALP has ceased to exist.
If Howard loses the election and/or his seat, yippee, but as for the change from a Liberal government to an ALP one - will we notice the difference?
I guess the only thing that will gain a small respite in my decreasing trust of Rudd/the ALP would be a firm commitment to same-sex equality in ALL areas but I’m not holding my breath. As a matter of fact, I put more faith (so to speak) in Malcolm Turnbull and the last of the small-l Liberals for reform in this area than I do in the ALP.
a firm commitment to same-sex equality in ALL areas
Say that again? News to me. Albo’s had a few private member’s bills on super, but AFAIK, there’s nothing wonderful about Labor same-sex entitlements policy.
I wouldn’t put any faith whatsoever in Malcolm Turnbull—as I’m looking at it a reduced majority Government for the Coalition would simply increase the power of the Right faction, who generally hold the safer seats. Andrew Elder can probably correct me here.
The real ALP has ceased to exist.
That’s just romanticism, and rather insulting romanticism at that.
To clarify: I’m not saying that there’d be no difference between the Coalition and the ALP in Government, and I’ll never use that broken-down cliché about the Another Liberal Party. Of course collective bargaining protection and unfair dismissal laws matter, and of course it’s important that the nasty bits of Workchoices get scrapped. I’m simply finding it hard to get excited about the FPLP, that’s all, even compared to the Labor Government we have here in NSW. Michael Costa might be an evil ratbag with all the vicious doubt-free zeal of every ex-Trotskyist converted to classical economics, but at least he knows what a trade union does.
That’s the problem: there’s been no commitment or even mention of it. And Roxon’s record and her meetings in Parliament House with the Christian Taliban and Rudd’s ‘Christianity on his sleeve’ are not encouraging.
As for Turnbull et al, he and a couple of others (that we know about) are actively pushing for same-sex law reform in Cabinet. Turnbull’s seat, via a redistribution,now takes in a large gay/lesbian constituency and not as safe as it was last election has no doubt has pushed Turnbull to some degree.
Another frenzied bout of election speculation from tig tog.
1. God bless you, Suz.
2. now for my prediction:
“some time in the next few months there will be an election”.
Surprise surprise. Howard doesn’t want to reveal the election dates. Its going to take meathooks to get him and Marie Antoinette out of Kirribilli House even if, (hopefully) Howard loses.
I predict that between Union, Business, Labor and Liberal advertising, we will see only 2 carlton draught ads and 3 mcdonalds ads between now and november.
I predict he will call the election on September 15, to stop people talking about APEC. Whatever people are saying are about APEC though, I doubt they will talking about this sort of thing….
I know exactly how it will be if Rudd wins the election, because I have been experiencing it for the last few years in Victoria under a Labor government.
Bracks did not remove or reversed many of the policies implemented by Kennett.
However look on the bright side. I still think there are positives in having Rudd as Prime Minister.
He will not use ‘fear’ (terrorists, refugees, unions etc) to gain electoral advantage.
We will still have people like Tanner, Plibersek etc. in the cabinet
We will not have a white picket idea of Australia foisted upon us by the likes of Abbott and Andrews
Reading the commentary in ‘The Australian’ on Monday would be worth it for that alone.
If this aint a form of economic racism, I dont know what is. From Crikey!
1. Aboriginal assets to be seized, then rented back for profit
Darwin insider Henri Ivrey writes:
In moves seemingly impossible to reconcile with the protection of Aboriginal children on remote towns and communities in the Northern Territory, a document has come into the hands of Crikey that presages a federal government takeover of millions of dollars worth of assets owned by Aboriginal organisations.
At least Ned Kelly stole from the rich. Mal Brough is taking from the poor to establish a government-controlled property trust, from which he will then rent back to the dispossessed.
Organisational assets above the value of $400,000 are to be compulsorily acquired by Indigenous Business Australia (IBA) and transferred to a new entity, the Indigenous Economic Development Trust (IEDT), and then rented back at commercial rates to the same organisations from which the asset has been taken from.
In some cases this will make those organisations commercially unviable, leading to financial collapse and loss of Aboriginal jobs. Every reason for Aboriginal organisations for acquiring property as part of engaging with capitalism has been thrown out in favour of a centrally controlled government bureaucracy.
This is not about Aboriginal land in places like Arnhem Land: assets will be compulsorily stripped from Aboriginal organisations owning land and property up and down the Stuart Highway—Darwin, Katherine, Tennant Creek and Alice Springs—no matter how well run, no matter what the level of services provided, no matter what those assets are being used for.
The early targets appear to be urban-based Community Development Employment Programs (CDEP). In a letter to these CDEP projects in towns and cities up the Stuart Highway, IBA’s “national manager business funding”, Kim McIlveen is keen to introduce “new products and services that your CDEP organisation might qualify for”.
One of these “new products” is “establishing an Indigenous Economic Development Trust, through which assets will be leased to Aboriginal businesses”.
And he is cheerfully offering a helping hand.
“IBA staff and contracted service providers will be visiting each CDEP over the next few months to provide more information and invite you to discuss your business needs.”
The sheer effrontery of it is extraordinary. The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR), in at least one instance, will be “resuming” an asset from an Aboriginal business which is being offered back for commercial rental to the very Aboriginal business from which it was compulsorily taken.
In many cases the assets have been built up over many years—in some cases decades. Some are jointly-owned assets. Some are leased to groups such as health services; some provide low cost housing. Some are funded through a combination of commercial income, commercial bank loans, soft government loans and government grants.
The latter factor seems to be the key. Any Aboriginal organisation that directly or indirectly received federal government assistance to acquire or pay off an asset—even in small part—now faces compulsory seizure of the entire asset.
Potentially, property and other commercial assets that are earning an income, and employing Aboriginal people, will be summarily resumed by a federal bureaucracy. At least one CDEP seems destined to relinquish the property it purchased, then lease it back from the IEDT.
And the amount of this Stuart Highway robbery could run into many millions of dollars if this principle is extended. In Darwin assets owned by Larrakia Nation and its business arm, along with the Aboriginal Development Foundation and Danila Dilba Health Service, face compulsory asset removal.
In Katherine the Jawoyn Association faces property losses as well as potential loss of assets in the tourist industry in the millions. Tennant Creek’s Julalikari Council owns low cost housing valued at more than $2 million as well as other properties.
In Alice Springs properties potentially being seized are owned by the Institute for Aboriginal Development, Tangentyere Council, Arrernte Council and Health Congress. Assets in all of these towns owned by the Northern and Central land councils could also face resumption by the feds.
John Howard visited the Aboriginal town of Ntaria (Hermannsburg) Tuesday this week.
“We have a simple aim,” he told the locals, “and that is whilst respecting a special place of Indigenous people in the history and the life of this country, their future can only be as part of the mainstream of the Australian community.
“But unless they can get a share of the bounty of this great and prosperous country, their future will be bleak.”
One can only assume the “special place of Indigenous people in the history and the life of this country” is something to do with continuously re-enacting those bits where land and property are stolen from them. Hard to work out where the “share of the bounty” comes in.
I think that those of us bemoaning how bad a Rudd government will be, pale imitation of Howard etc etc, are forgetting one important point.
If Howard is re-elected he will see it as a mandate to implement the most extreme policies imaginable. He will be such a hero within his own party there will be little or no restraint on his power and authority.
It will also mean a shattered and broken Labour Party, especially when Trade Unions become virtually non-existent.
That’s why comparing Rudd to Howard 2007 is missing the point. You ‘aint see nothing yet.
Also remember that, in the first term at least of a new government, there will be a reinvigorated public service and civil sector. They have been beaten into submission by this government to the extent that they fear to provide proper input. I have no doubt that that will change with a change of government, at least temporarily, regardless of their true colours.
For those who are saying that Labor won’t change much of Howard’s 11 years, and that they’ve sold out their supporters on IR (among other things), what’s stopping you voting for the Greens as an alternative? A 1 Green 2 ALP vote is still effectively a vote for Labor over Liberal (or National), but you’re dropping Labor’s primary in a fairly obvious way. Labor will get the message that they need to take their progressive voters seriously, or they’ll lose money from election funding, and sooner or later, they’ll start losing seats in Parliament.
I’ll point out as a disclaimer that I’m a Greens member, but the reason I’m a Greens member is that, for me, Labor sucks too much to get my time, energy and money. As a unionist, I’d find it hard to campaign for WorkChoicesLite, for example. And I’m not looking for a flame war here - I’m genuinely curious.
Alister, Labor has moved on from the Whitlam era - indeed there is no Labor MP or Senator in Parliament that was there when Whitlam was PM - old style 70s and 80s leftism just doesn’t cut it anymore.
- everybody should be screaming blue murder - the fact that it cuts right across MNr Howard’s message at Hermannsburg yesterday about indigenous people joining mainstream Australia is another issue that deserves a wide public airing
Don’t be certain about those ‘get square’ leaks coming out any time soon, remember the customs guy facing jail? Leaks are serious shit these days and Ratty has put the fear of God into the service.
Alister, Labor has moved on from the Whitlam era - indeed there is no Labor MP or Senator in Parliament that was there when Whitlam was PM - old style 70s and 80s leftism just doesn’t cut it anymore.
Hi Paul,
I don’t buy the suggestion that the Greens are 70s unreformed Whitlamites transplanted into the 2000s. And I’m not sure how what you wrote is actually a response to my question - it’s unclear to me what you mean. The Greens are certainly in favour of free education and universal health care - probably the two things people identify Whitlam with these days, but I’m thinking you can make economic arguments in favour of these too. Anyway, I’m mostly curious. This was sparked when handing out for the state seat of Melbourne, when an old-style Labor man asked me why I wasn’t in the ALP. The question struck me as so odd that I couldn’t immediately formulate a response. This was after seven years of Bracks, who, while unquestionably better that Kennett, was hardly setting a progressive agenda.
I know exactly how it will be if Rudd wins the election, because I have been experiencing it for the last few years in Victoria under a Labor government.
Bracks did not remove or reversed many of the policies implemented by Kennett.
Guido,
You seem to be implying that Rudd won’t remove or reverse any of Howard’s policies. I think you’re deeply misguided if you believe that.
Maybe some things will be retained but Rudd has already pledged to:
- Scrap Work Choices
- Halve HECS fees for Science courses (and I’m presuming they’ll also come good on their 2004 election pledge to scrap the 25% HECS increase that Brendan Nelson imposed)
- Scrap the Medicare ‘safety net’
- Increase expenditure for pubic health & education
- Greater legal recognition for same sex couples
- Reform the way ABC board members are appointed (presumably that also means the current will be sacked)
- Greater focus on Aboriginal reconciliation and that includes an apology
- Scrap temporary protection visas for refugees
And let’s also keep in mind that Lindsay Tanner is in charge of Labor policy development and he’s one of the more progressive members within the party.
Normally, when a PM goes on an election walkabout, kissing babies, shaking hands, hugged and being hugged, he’s treated with a certain amount of respect, even by those who strongly disagree with his policies. Of course, there are demonstrators, against Workchoices, by uni students, by those great-hearted people in Socialist Alliance or the Greens. Buts thats part of the normal process.
What happened to John Howard today in the Northern Territory was something very new.
A middle-aged woman he was trying to convince of the benefits of Workchoices apears to have told him under her breath to F… off! I’m no lip-reader, but thats what it looked like to me.
A young fellow told him to
“Get your grubby hands off the Northern Territory!” and a young girl followed him a short distance screaming ‘You’re a liar! You’re a liar!”
Now this might just be the NT. They’re renowned for their eccentricity. But if its not, something is changing in our country, and its changing big-time.
I hope every election walkabout JWH takes in future is like the one in the Territory, or worse.
Futt-bucker,
Haven’t got a clue, but it is one of the most accessible blogs around where you can talk about anything from politics, to books, to what you did on the weekend etc etc etc etc.basically anything,
to lots of people. That’s good enough for me.
Also if you have Foxtel on the Sky News channel they screen a daily political show called Agenda from 4:15pm EST (more pro-right) from monday to thursday and in around ten minues tonight and tomorrow night (at 9:30pm EST) a focus group session (a friend of mine in Sydney was a part of on Monday night) will be screened on a show called Voter’s Verdict.
Forgive me if this has been discussed before but does anyone know who is behind propping up this site?
A combined project involving the Illuminati, Skull and Bones society, the CWA, the Bilderberg Group, some wandering Marxists, a hive mind, a misplaced Monarchist, a renegade Pirate Queen and this guy we met in the pub last week who shouted us a beer and seemed a knockabout chap.
As you can tell, the weekly committee meetings tend to drag a bit.
Global warming is in the news every day and how are the Greens polling? 7%? Anyone with even an ounce of political nous should see that the Greens are a waste of time.
I rely solely on my memory when someone suggests that there is some inherent danger in comparing Rudd with Howard. It used to be said of Keating and Hawke they had never lead a strike,and therefore couldnt be considered Labor. In fact that statement has had more non strike leaders displacing its value than holding its value. I went to a Technical school in the late sixties seventies,and corporal punishment,and twisting side-burns as a punishment were in. I was a young orchard hand when Whitlam was dismissed. I have seen as many conservative governments as much as Labor. Labor punishes people more effectively than conservatives.No increase in the age pension recently whilst again the politicians gave themselves a pay rise.Voters believing there is deep substance in Labor fail to commit themselves fully to their own observations and responses about Labor in a way that suggests a forgiving of sins.It certainly is true Howard,if re-elected could be back to side burns twisting or whatever,but to me that isnt a responsible self acceptance,if you feel deeply that your trust in Labor previously was not repaid.Vote for yourself,and see if these bastards are matching your rhetoric!? And if they arent! Give them no time to feel their sins are forgiven. The most wonderful criticism of Howard today I heard on the ABC. ‘Get your arse out of the Northern Territory Howard!’ Makes me think the NT and its people are both responsible and sophisticated.I was intelligent enough in the seventies to not be registered to vote.I therefore only felt robbed of policies no longer in operation,rather than the bloody idiots who Fraser uprooted.
Global warming is in the news every day and how are the Greens polling? 7%? Anyone with even an ounce of political nous should see that the Greens are a waste of time.
Get rid of Howard. Donate money at Kevin07!
Well, that was a waste of time. As for delrio above, I think it’s a long bow to suggest that Rudd’s going to “scrap WorkChoices”. Rather unfortunately, it appears that this is not the case. I agree that Rudd will change or reverse some part of the damage to civil society that’s been perpetrated over the last decade or so. It just won’t be enough. ABCC until 2010, for example.
Well:
Newspoll has the Greens around 5% with all ‘other’ minors and extras as 10%.
Morgan gives the Greens about 7% about equal to ‘other’.
Galaxy puts the Greens at 9% with ‘other’ at 5%.
So that makes the Greens the #3 party in Australia [above the Country Party, oops sorry, Nationals] with ‘others’ less, equal or more depending on who you go with.
So if voting for the #3 and giving your preference to one of the big 2 is a waste…well ok, if you say so.
Thanks Possum yeah I noticed that looking around the site. I was just wondering if anyone knew who might be behind Prime Media? I had never heard of the site before and got the link through the Adelaide Advertiser so I assumed News Ltd. might be behind it.
Futt Bucker,
The site is run by Prime Digitalworks, a sub of Prime Media. PD is run by Tony Surtees, a former VP of Yahoo! - and you can see the cheesy over-the-top style through the site.
Prime is owned by Paul Ramsey - see here.
Thanks for the info gents. I do admit when I first came across the site I was almost shocked at it’s “simplicity” and thought it to be a bit of a piss take/News Ltd. write off. But it’s not hard to see the Channel 7 angle with all big, basic and colourful presentation “Nintendo” style.
Technically the link through the Advertiser was from a Google generated ad and considering Google owns Yahoo it’s all falling into place lol.
It looks a bit too “civil” for the LaRouchites when taking in their spectacular implosion on the Swindle panel and the lack of Carbon-14 jargon!
I predict that if the polls continue in the trend against the libs and particularly if Maxine looks poised to take his seat, Howard will have a health scare before the election (a suspected heart attack on his morning walk?) and will have to bow out of politics before we get the chance to vote him out.
I predict I will never like Rudd.
I predict my lack of respect for the ex rock star, once environmentalist and now MP will contintue to drop and he will never redeem his cred.
Dear Ecumenical Interventionist Omnipotent Omniscient God
Thank you for giving your servant Reverend Gordon Moyes such a wonderful turn of phrase.
Sincerely
Liam
You would have to be careful walking down aisle 14 at BI-LO and not choose from the wrong side of the aisle. One side would end your pet cruelly forever. The other side would feed them with tenderness.
It’s a bit like walking down the aisle on the way to a Senate election…
People should not support the Greens. You’ll only make yourself less attractive to the opposite sex and the rest of the community will lose respect for you. Nobody likes the Greens. The Greens are smelly.
To pick up on a frightening possibility raised on another thread, if the American president was to engineer a global crisis involving the invasion of Iran, would this be just the rabbit that Dear Leader requires to be miraculously removed from hat?
Joe2 - interesting, but another interpretation is that Sheridan has carefully set the whole thing up to climax with the closing line:
“If, in the light of all this, Bush makes it to Sydney after all and stays until Saturday night, it will be a tribute to his commitment to Prime Minister Howard.”
Gawd Shaun I wasn’t suggesting it as a top read. Just wondering whether the ground is being prepared for another Ratty disappointment. George might want to stay at home to continue his sabre rattling against Iran from a safer bunker, for instance. Joke. As FDB suggests, though, Sheridan might have other motives. Just specalatin.
Adrian,
Something I forgot to mention in my post on the US/Iran thread. I don’t think Bush can declare war on Iran constitutionally without the consent of Congress. Which the Democrats who control it will not give. They’d rather go after Ben Laden.So that’s a rabbit that will have to stay in JWH’s hat.
He managed to get troops into Iraq without declaring war, Paul Burns, and thus neatly sidestepping the issue of consent from Congress. Can’t see why BushCo couldn’t work out a way to do the same again to send troops into Iran if they want to badly enough.
That’s not quite right, tigtog. Congress did vote on authorising him to deploy troops in Iraq. Hence all the angst about Hillary refusing to say that she voted the wrong way.
Heh, it is Sheridan Joe so I wasn’t expecting a top read. You’re right re Sheridan’s intent. I was just surprised that most of the article seemed to be a hankering for the good ole days of 1992-2000.
The Bush presidency in its final stages and still b.b.but Clinton is the best argument his supporters have.
Considering the disposition of US forces as they stand, I think there isn’t an actual practical way to have an aggressive ground assault in Iran. That would require a draft, a virtual political impossibility unless the Iranians like nuked Chicago, which I don’t see coming soon. The only realistic aggressive US military posture would be air strikes, which I also don’t really think are forthcoming, at least not without several months of very vocal posturing and sabre-rattling from both sides as a prelude, and much more plausible escalation and provocation. I don’t think Bush has anything remotely like the necessary political standing, nor does the US have the necessary global moral credibility anymore (see point A), to launch anything like that.
Isn’t it more likely that these little maneuverings and spitball-attacks are an attempt to create some sort of leverage for a semi-negotiated quasi-settlement within the region? Sooner or later the US has to come to some kind of negotiated terms with Iran vis-a-vis Iraq; it can’t be avoided because the Iranians, well, live there after all, and they can’t very well move. Pity Bush’s people didn’t take these rather obvious considerations into account before charging into this train-wreck.
Nicely nuanced, j_p_z. I would hope that a US president may think your way. And in a sane world, that is how a US president should think. Have you thought of running for office?
Unfortunately, nuance appears to be at a premium in today’s White House.
I’m quite confident that Bush wants to do something dramatic. The question is, who in the administration, or outside it (Laura? LAURA!!!) can deflect POTUS?
Bob Baer ex CIA agent, on this mornings RN, suggested that Bush would be able to go after Iran without a need to check in with congress. He used the term “hot persuit” as ‘acceptable justification’, for a president, when chasing down iranian special guard forces attacking ‘his’ troops in Iraq.
Shrub has nothing much to lose and it would seem that he has the power.
Phil Travers - all pensions are indexed to CPI. Pollies, who get paid a pittance for what they do at all levels, have an independent body set their remuneration. What’s your beef?
I don’t know whether all these observations on Bush’s power or lack of power to declare war on Iran reassure me or not. While I like to propose arguments as to why it can’t happen, my gut feeling is with the madmen we’ve got running the world today, it probably will.
But to a different piece of electoral speculation. Has anybody wondered what might happen electorally if the presnt devastating outbreak of horse flu is somehow linked to the funding and staff cuts made to AQIS by Howard around, I think, 2001? And because of the requirements of the Aust/UD FTA?
Of course, the ALP would have some problems here as well, since that cut 30% of the AQIS staff around 1995, also in the name of Free Trade.
I expect a deathly silence or mind-numbing spin, if people start thinking this way. But that’s what political blogging is about, isn’t it, apart from the sheer fun of it.
Christ that Australian editorial is so right. It’s difficult to feel sorry for a government that’s allowed capital gains tax to remain, that’s had company tax at 30% for over 5 years (from memory), that presides over a largely socialised health system, that hasn’t had the guts to really reform higher education and that’s introduced new regulations across industry at an almost unbelievable rate. Why do we have to wait for the ALP to get stuck in? It’s shameful.
Hi Paul - I was interested your comments early this morning about J.H’s reception when baby kissing etc……I have long been a Howard critic on policy at home and abroad, but more recently have become personally revolted by his body language on his walkabouts. He’s been glad-handing aboriginals,kissing babies, embracing the disabled and hugging adolescent skateboarders. The touching he seems to tolerate, but actual eye contact he doesn’t do - rather he’s usually smiling straight at the cameras! I am trusting my instinct that K.R. is a more wholesome human being. He does seem to invite a real response eg the tummy poking toddler, shown so often by the Chaser. A very tenuous sort of case for giving someone your vote, perhaps! I am also a Jo Hockey hater and a Lindsay Tanner fan! I love this site and will try to make a more cerebral contribution soon.
The federal election is almost upon us and the great celebrity candidate of the party of millionaires and yuppies Peter Garrett has almost gone missing. But the other day he piped up to tell all that he would reduce the living standard of SA Housing Trust tenants. Naturally these people are among the poorest in the community.
The Housing Trust keeps the ongoing bills of the tenants lowest by not using Gas in the new houses it builds. The policy saves your average tenant about $100 per yr, yet the multi millionaire Garrett is determined to force me to pay $2 per week because of his religious belief in AGW and what ought to be done about it. He believes I must be compelled to use gas to heat my water! No more electric water heating the green authoritarians have decided to compel me! People who are interested in lifting the standard of living of the poor were not to be consulted and the ABC types have not reported the consequence of the Garrett policy announcement. I have not heard one comment about this cost burden on their ABC.
Now I have said before that when the election arrives and battlers start to pay attention to what is proposed for them by the anti democratic forces that currently contend for power then they might suddenly swing on the issue of Global Warming / Climate Change, but not the way that people have assumed.
Garrett’s ALP really do believe that carbon has to be taxed one way or another to reduce the use of coal etc and punters ought to know by now that Howard won’t do it. This first serve from Garrett proves the point and I now know people that I can inform of this uncompensated fact. They might be interested in looking out for their own interest.
If swing voters in marginal seats want to pay more for petrol, electricity, housing, water etc then they will vote ALP (or Greens first). But if they want to stop this type of policy from Garrett then they could either keep voting for Howard or just put in a blank.
I was only having a go - I know you Maoist types don’t like participating in democracy - so much the better. How could you vote when the policies you like are all far-right but you call yourself far-left?
That’s not quite right, tigtog. Congress did vote on authorising him to deploy troops in Iraq. Hence all the angst about Hillary refusing to say that she voted the wrong way.
Yes, Mark, but what I was responding to was the phrase “declaring war”. There has been no formal declaration of war from the USA against Iraq, and the troops are there anyway.
But yes, the Dems seem to fold like beaten eggwhites whenever BushCo threatens to paint them as not tough enough on terror, and it doesn’t seem that holding the House majority now is going to make any difference.
Don’t tempt me, silkworm. The ALP is basically a party of neoliberalism (sure, there’s tinkering around the edges, like in IR, but the gist is the same). So they’re already halfway there in my book. Are they capable of proper economic reform, though? It’s fair to assume that the ALP will move further to the right once they get in. It’s the discipline of actually having to make real decisions, you see. And of course, I’ve never been comfortable with the social conservatism of the Howard/Abbott/Andrews unholy trinity. F*ck, you’ve got me talking myself into it… Wait, if I just recite: “the ALP will not reduce company tax” one hundred times, these feelings will go away. Won’t they?
The last time the US Congress declared war was in June 1942, against Axis satellites. Korea was a UN sanctioned ‘police action’ and ever since that it’s been Authorised Use of Military Force (AUMF). I blame the UN for getting all pissy over authorising wars and stuff. Like, omg.
j_p_z lays out clearly and concisely why the US is highly unlikely to bomb/invade Iran, I’ll just add that should either side start sinking ships in the Gulf of Hormuz you’ll see an Oil Shock that made OPEC 73 look like a spilt jerry can.
TigTog: “He..neatly sidestepping the issue of consent from Congress”.
Mark: “That’s not quite right, tigtog. Congress did vote on authorising him to deploy troops in Iraq”
TigTog:”Yes, Mark, but what I was responding to was (something else)”
Interesting example of a Classical Rhetoric technique: TigTog’s introduction of a plausible untruth is a Sophism, yes?
What’s the technical term for TigTog’s
“yes… but .. (it wasn’t a core truth, excusible cos it was only peripheral and supporting of my main arguement)”
volley? The Howard defense?
Pass the hemlock, please.
…( anyone remember the scene of rhetorical tennis in Stoppard’s Rosencrantz and guildernstern are dead” ? Gary Oldman and Tim Roth in title roles, excellent IMO.)..
The sixty page report on fairness in Australia is here.
Key facts from the report:
Australia is ranked only 14th out of 18 OECD countries on the UN Human Poverty Index, behind most of Western Europe;
Australia is in the bottom third of rich nations for oral health for adults;
Australian spends less than the OECD average on education and we spend less than almost any OECD nation on early childhood education;
While Australia’s home ownership rate (70%) is one of the highest in the OECD, housing affordability is worse here than in any other English speaking OECD country;
While the Indigenous populations in NZ, the USA and Canada all have worse health than the rest of the population, the gap between Indigenous life expectancy and the rest of the population in Australia is approximately double the gap in NZ, USA and Canada;
While Australia’s unemployment rate is relatively low, the proportion of the working age population living in households where no one works is 5th highest in the OECD.
First.
I predict that Senator Andrew Bartlett will run the best Web 2.0 campaign.
I predict that Howard will drive from the last meeting at APEC, to Yarralumla
My prediction is that APEC will be a flop. The security fence and disruption will p*ss off Sydneysiders, and the rest of the show will be long on posturing and short on content, so those of use living out in the “toenails” of the nation (as Jeff Kennett put it some years ago)will be unmoved.
John Howard has said as much when he said he is looking for aspirational goals on greenhouse gases, which means that the pre conference negotiations are complete, the communique has been written and that is he got out of it.
I think the last day will top it off with , as predicted, world leaders in Akubra and Drizabones (lets hope Sydney turns on a hot day), sans George W, and John Howard will look even more stupid than when he dons his Akubra and khaki shirt for his trips outside of the city limits (someone once described him as looking like a roofing nail).
This election is Labour’s to loose, for the first time in more than a decade, and I think Rudd and his leadership now know this, and Howard know it too. The campaign madness (and dirty tricks) will be coming from the Liberals this time as they look for the magic bullet to bring down a crusing Opposition.
I predict that whoever wins, I will have a hell of a hangover the next morning.
I predict that the number of seats Labor will win in the House will be somewhere in the eighties. Enough to get the Budget through, but not enough to get trooby levers running away with themselves.
Notice how last night, in the wake of Rudd’s announcement of the details of his IR policy, the ‘Union of Australian Bosses’ - how else do you describe a collective of employers holding out for ‘their rights’? - stepped up their campaign in support of the Libs with even more ads. (No doubt there’s a mole at ALP HQ who must have tipped them off about the announcement.) Now as well as Central Casting ‘union thugs’ busting in on boutiques (please, give me that ad exec’s dealer’s number, that must be good stuff), we have happy miners extolling the virtues of dealing direct with their superiors for their remuneration.
No doubt the typical Australian voter will see it and say “good for you, but my boss is a greedy c**t and he’d happily give me the arse for not taking a cut in pay”. Hold your nerve, Rudd, and the election’s yours.
What, you plan to re-enact Don’s Party at your place?
“Phaseout” of AWAs. Elimination of the right of entry for organisers to talk to their members. Balls.
I’m one of the most one-eyed Labor stooge commenters here, and I’m getting perilously close to apathy.
What Liam said. But Howard has to go.
Cue Janis (or Kris)
Apathy’s just another word for nothing left to choose…
We get to vote for the Liberals or the Alternate Liberal Party. The real ALP has ceased to exist.
If Howard loses the election and/or his seat, yippee, but as for the change from a Liberal government to an ALP one - will we notice the difference?
I guess the only thing that will gain a small respite in my decreasing trust of Rudd/the ALP would be a firm commitment to same-sex equality in ALL areas but I’m not holding my breath. As a matter of fact, I put more faith (so to speak) in Malcolm Turnbull and the last of the small-l Liberals for reform in this area than I do in the ALP.
Say that again? News to me. Albo’s had a few private member’s bills on super, but AFAIK, there’s nothing wonderful about Labor same-sex entitlements policy.
I wouldn’t put any faith whatsoever in Malcolm Turnbull—as I’m looking at it a reduced majority Government for the Coalition would simply increase the power of the Right faction, who generally hold the safer seats. Andrew Elder can probably correct me here.
That’s just romanticism, and rather insulting romanticism at that.
To clarify: I’m not saying that there’d be no difference between the Coalition and the ALP in Government, and I’ll never use that broken-down cliché about the Another Liberal Party. Of course collective bargaining protection and unfair dismissal laws matter, and of course it’s important that the nasty bits of Workchoices get scrapped. I’m simply finding it hard to get excited about the FPLP, that’s all, even compared to the Labor Government we have here in NSW. Michael Costa might be an evil ratbag with all the vicious doubt-free zeal of every ex-Trotskyist converted to classical economics, but at least he knows what a trade union does.
What would happen if Turnbull put a stop to the pulp mill? He’d make national and Tasmanian Labor look stupid.
Probably won’t happen though.
That’s the problem: there’s been no commitment or even mention of it. And Roxon’s record and her meetings in Parliament House with the Christian Taliban and Rudd’s ‘Christianity on his sleeve’ are not encouraging.
As for Turnbull et al, he and a couple of others (that we know about) are actively pushing for same-sex law reform in Cabinet. Turnbull’s seat, via a redistribution,now takes in a large gay/lesbian constituency and not as safe as it was last election has no doubt has pushed Turnbull to some degree.
Another frenzied bout of election speculation from tig tog.
1. God bless you, Suz.
2. now for my prediction:
“some time in the next few months there will be an election”.
Mr Howard will probably get in - better the devil you know, you know.
He is well thought of in lots of area.
What WPD said. Plus…
I think that the swing to Labor in the seat of Adelaide will be bigger than most predict and the extra votes won’t be because of Kate Ellis.
Surprise surprise. Howard doesn’t want to reveal the election dates. Its going to take meathooks to get him and Marie Antoinette out of Kirribilli House even if, (hopefully) Howard loses.
I predict that between Union, Business, Labor and Liberal advertising, we will see only 2 carlton draught ads and 3 mcdonalds ads between now and november.
I predict he will call the election on September 15, to stop people talking about APEC. Whatever people are saying are about APEC though, I doubt they will talking about this sort of thing….
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/249291
I know exactly how it will be if Rudd wins the election, because I have been experiencing it for the last few years in Victoria under a Labor government.
Bracks did not remove or reversed many of the policies implemented by Kennett.
However look on the bright side. I still think there are positives in having Rudd as Prime Minister.
He will not use ‘fear’ (terrorists, refugees, unions etc) to gain electoral advantage.
We will still have people like Tanner, Plibersek etc. in the cabinet
We will not have a white picket idea of Australia foisted upon us by the likes of Abbott and Andrews
Reading the commentary in ‘The Australian’ on Monday would be worth it for that alone.
Local bumper sticker bunfight breaks out.
Anyone but John Hunt is a Coward, but still:
No, we’ll have a white picket idea of Australia foisted upon us by entirely new people.
Oh yeah, that will make everything worthwhile. Shanahan will probably try to interpret the election results as being a Liberal victory … somehow.
If this aint a form of economic racism, I dont know what is. From Crikey!
1. Aboriginal assets to be seized, then rented back for profit
Darwin insider Henri Ivrey writes:
In moves seemingly impossible to reconcile with the protection of Aboriginal children on remote towns and communities in the Northern Territory, a document has come into the hands of Crikey that presages a federal government takeover of millions of dollars worth of assets owned by Aboriginal organisations.
At least Ned Kelly stole from the rich. Mal Brough is taking from the poor to establish a government-controlled property trust, from which he will then rent back to the dispossessed.
Organisational assets above the value of $400,000 are to be compulsorily acquired by Indigenous Business Australia (IBA) and transferred to a new entity, the Indigenous Economic Development Trust (IEDT), and then rented back at commercial rates to the same organisations from which the asset has been taken from.
In some cases this will make those organisations commercially unviable, leading to financial collapse and loss of Aboriginal jobs. Every reason for Aboriginal organisations for acquiring property as part of engaging with capitalism has been thrown out in favour of a centrally controlled government bureaucracy.
This is not about Aboriginal land in places like Arnhem Land: assets will be compulsorily stripped from Aboriginal organisations owning land and property up and down the Stuart Highway—Darwin, Katherine, Tennant Creek and Alice Springs—no matter how well run, no matter what the level of services provided, no matter what those assets are being used for.
The early targets appear to be urban-based Community Development Employment Programs (CDEP). In a letter to these CDEP projects in towns and cities up the Stuart Highway, IBA’s “national manager business funding”, Kim McIlveen is keen to introduce “new products and services that your CDEP organisation might qualify for”.
One of these “new products” is “establishing an Indigenous Economic Development Trust, through which assets will be leased to Aboriginal businesses”.
And he is cheerfully offering a helping hand.
“IBA staff and contracted service providers will be visiting each CDEP over the next few months to provide more information and invite you to discuss your business needs.”
The sheer effrontery of it is extraordinary. The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR), in at least one instance, will be “resuming” an asset from an Aboriginal business which is being offered back for commercial rental to the very Aboriginal business from which it was compulsorily taken.
In many cases the assets have been built up over many years—in some cases decades. Some are jointly-owned assets. Some are leased to groups such as health services; some provide low cost housing. Some are funded through a combination of commercial income, commercial bank loans, soft government loans and government grants.
The latter factor seems to be the key. Any Aboriginal organisation that directly or indirectly received federal government assistance to acquire or pay off an asset—even in small part—now faces compulsory seizure of the entire asset.
Potentially, property and other commercial assets that are earning an income, and employing Aboriginal people, will be summarily resumed by a federal bureaucracy. At least one CDEP seems destined to relinquish the property it purchased, then lease it back from the IEDT.
And the amount of this Stuart Highway robbery could run into many millions of dollars if this principle is extended. In Darwin assets owned by Larrakia Nation and its business arm, along with the Aboriginal Development Foundation and Danila Dilba Health Service, face compulsory asset removal.
In Katherine the Jawoyn Association faces property losses as well as potential loss of assets in the tourist industry in the millions. Tennant Creek’s Julalikari Council owns low cost housing valued at more than $2 million as well as other properties.
In Alice Springs properties potentially being seized are owned by the Institute for Aboriginal Development, Tangentyere Council, Arrernte Council and Health Congress. Assets in all of these towns owned by the Northern and Central land councils could also face resumption by the feds.
John Howard visited the Aboriginal town of Ntaria (Hermannsburg) Tuesday this week.
“We have a simple aim,” he told the locals, “and that is whilst respecting a special place of Indigenous people in the history and the life of this country, their future can only be as part of the mainstream of the Australian community.
“But unless they can get a share of the bounty of this great and prosperous country, their future will be bleak.”
One can only assume the “special place of Indigenous people in the history and the life of this country” is something to do with continuously re-enacting those bits where land and property are stolen from them. Hard to work out where the “share of the bounty” comes in.
Send your tips to boss@crikey.com.au or submit them anonymously here.
I think that those of us bemoaning how bad a Rudd government will be, pale imitation of Howard etc etc, are forgetting one important point.
If Howard is re-elected he will see it as a mandate to implement the most extreme policies imaginable. He will be such a hero within his own party there will be little or no restraint on his power and authority.
It will also mean a shattered and broken Labour Party, especially when Trade Unions become virtually non-existent.
That’s why comparing Rudd to Howard 2007 is missing the point. You ‘aint see nothing yet.
Also remember that, in the first term at least of a new government, there will be a reinvigorated public service and civil sector. They have been beaten into submission by this government to the extent that they fear to provide proper input. I have no doubt that that will change with a change of government, at least temporarily, regardless of their true colours.
And I ain’t no fan of Rudd or Labor.
For those who are saying that Labor won’t change much of Howard’s 11 years, and that they’ve sold out their supporters on IR (among other things), what’s stopping you voting for the Greens as an alternative? A 1 Green 2 ALP vote is still effectively a vote for Labor over Liberal (or National), but you’re dropping Labor’s primary in a fairly obvious way. Labor will get the message that they need to take their progressive voters seriously, or they’ll lose money from election funding, and sooner or later, they’ll start losing seats in Parliament.
I’ll point out as a disclaimer that I’m a Greens member, but the reason I’m a Greens member is that, for me, Labor sucks too much to get my time, energy and money. As a unionist, I’d find it hard to campaign for WorkChoicesLite, for example. And I’m not looking for a flame war here - I’m genuinely curious.
“They have been beaten into submission by this government to the extent that they fear to provide proper input.”
True, Tim, but as the stench of political death gets worse around The Rodent, I expect the odd “get square” leak or two.
Alister, Labor has moved on from the Whitlam era - indeed there is no Labor MP or Senator in Parliament that was there when Whitlam was PM - old style 70s and 80s leftism just doesn’t cut it anymore.
Well, I hear the ETU has pumped big dollars into the Greens campaign.
Unions are starting to shift allegiance, and I cant blame them.
Re the crikey story on the raid on indigenous enterpirse - where are the true conservatives - the defenders of property rights when you need them?
The Small business lobby should be screaming blue murder about this.
Addition to my comment above
- everybody should be screaming blue murder - the fact that it cuts right across MNr Howard’s message at Hermannsburg yesterday about indigenous people joining mainstream Australia is another issue that deserves a wide public airing
Enenmy Combatant
Don’t be certain about those ‘get square’ leaks coming out any time soon, remember the customs guy facing jail? Leaks are serious shit these days and Ratty has put the fear of God into the service.
Hi Paul,
I don’t buy the suggestion that the Greens are 70s unreformed Whitlamites transplanted into the 2000s. And I’m not sure how what you wrote is actually a response to my question - it’s unclear to me what you mean. The Greens are certainly in favour of free education and universal health care - probably the two things people identify Whitlam with these days, but I’m thinking you can make economic arguments in favour of these too. Anyway, I’m mostly curious. This was sparked when handing out for the state seat of Melbourne, when an old-style Labor man asked me why I wasn’t in the ALP. The question struck me as so odd that I couldn’t immediately formulate a response. This was after seven years of Bracks, who, while unquestionably better that Kennett, was hardly setting a progressive agenda.
Guido wrote:
Guido,
You seem to be implying that Rudd won’t remove or reverse any of Howard’s policies. I think you’re deeply misguided if you believe that.
Maybe some things will be retained but Rudd has already pledged to:
- Scrap Work Choices
- Halve HECS fees for Science courses (and I’m presuming they’ll also come good on their 2004 election pledge to scrap the 25% HECS increase that Brendan Nelson imposed)
- Scrap the Medicare ‘safety net’
- Increase expenditure for pubic health & education
- Greater legal recognition for same sex couples
- Reform the way ABC board members are appointed (presumably that also means the current will be sacked)
- Greater focus on Aboriginal reconciliation and that includes an apology
- Scrap temporary protection visas for refugees
And let’s also keep in mind that Lindsay Tanner is in charge of Labor policy development and he’s one of the more progressive members within the party.
Normally, when a PM goes on an election walkabout, kissing babies, shaking hands, hugged and being hugged, he’s treated with a certain amount of respect, even by those who strongly disagree with his policies. Of course, there are demonstrators, against Workchoices, by uni students, by those great-hearted people in Socialist Alliance or the Greens. Buts thats part of the normal process.
What happened to John Howard today in the Northern Territory was something very new.
A middle-aged woman he was trying to convince of the benefits of Workchoices apears to have told him under her breath to F… off! I’m no lip-reader, but thats what it looked like to me.
A young fellow told him to
“Get your grubby hands off the Northern Territory!” and a young girl followed him a short distance screaming ‘You’re a liar! You’re a liar!”
Now this might just be the NT. They’re renowned for their eccentricity. But if its not, something is changing in our country, and its changing big-time.
I hope every election walkabout JWH takes in future is like the one in the Territory, or worse.
Forgive me if this has been discussed before but does anyone know who is behind propping up this site?
Futt-bucker,
Haven’t got a clue, but it is one of the most accessible blogs around where you can talk about anything from politics, to books, to what you did on the weekend etc etc etc etc.basically anything,
to lots of people. That’s good enough for me.
The rest of my post didn’t load up, the address for the site I was talking about is: http://www.federalelection.com.au
Also if you have Foxtel on the Sky News channel they screen a daily political show called Agenda from 4:15pm EST (more pro-right) from monday to thursday and in around ten minues tonight and tomorrow night (at 9:30pm EST) a focus group session (a friend of mine in Sydney was a part of on Monday night) will be screened on a show called Voter’s Verdict.
A combined project involving the Illuminati, Skull and Bones society, the CWA, the Bilderberg Group, some wandering Marxists, a hive mind, a misplaced Monarchist, a renegade Pirate Queen and this guy we met in the pub last week who shouted us a beer and seemed a knockabout chap.
As you can tell, the weekly committee meetings tend to drag a bit.
Oh that site. Obviously the Reptilians and La Rouchies.
Global warming is in the news every day and how are the Greens polling? 7%? Anyone with even an ounce of political nous should see that the Greens are a waste of time.
Get rid of Howard. Donate money at Kevin07!
I rely solely on my memory when someone suggests that there is some inherent danger in comparing Rudd with Howard. It used to be said of Keating and Hawke they had never lead a strike,and therefore couldnt be considered Labor. In fact that statement has had more non strike leaders displacing its value than holding its value. I went to a Technical school in the late sixties seventies,and corporal punishment,and twisting side-burns as a punishment were in. I was a young orchard hand when Whitlam was dismissed. I have seen as many conservative governments as much as Labor. Labor punishes people more effectively than conservatives.No increase in the age pension recently whilst again the politicians gave themselves a pay rise.Voters believing there is deep substance in Labor fail to commit themselves fully to their own observations and responses about Labor in a way that suggests a forgiving of sins.It certainly is true Howard,if re-elected could be back to side burns twisting or whatever,but to me that isnt a responsible self acceptance,if you feel deeply that your trust in Labor previously was not repaid.Vote for yourself,and see if these bastards are matching your rhetoric!? And if they arent! Give them no time to feel their sins are forgiven. The most wonderful criticism of Howard today I heard on the ABC. ‘Get your arse out of the Northern Territory Howard!’ Makes me think the NT and its people are both responsible and sophisticated.I was intelligent enough in the seventies to not be registered to vote.I therefore only felt robbed of policies no longer in operation,rather than the bloody idiots who Fraser uprooted.
Well, that was a waste of time. As for delrio above, I think it’s a long bow to suggest that Rudd’s going to “scrap WorkChoices”. Rather unfortunately, it appears that this is not the case. I agree that Rudd will change or reverse some part of the damage to civil society that’s been perpetrated over the last decade or so. It just won’t be enough. ABCC until 2010, for example.
Well:
Newspoll has the Greens around 5% with all ‘other’ minors and extras as 10%.
Morgan gives the Greens about 7% about equal to ‘other’.
Galaxy puts the Greens at 9% with ‘other’ at 5%.
So that makes the Greens the #3 party in Australia [above the Country Party, oops sorry, Nationals] with ‘others’ less, equal or more depending on who you go with.
So if voting for the #3 and giving your preference to one of the big 2 is a waste…well ok, if you say so.
Mr Bucker,
Prime Media is behind the site of which you speak.
Thanks Possum yeah I noticed that looking around the site. I was just wondering if anyone knew who might be behind Prime Media? I had never heard of the site before and got the link through the Adelaide Advertiser so I assumed News Ltd. might be behind it.
Prime Media is hooked in with Channel 7.I’m surprised the Tiser is linking to is since it doesnt seem to be close to fully functional yet.
Mrs. buckett will NOT give up the New Year fireworks from Kirribilli. All other national events will be scheduled accordingly.
Futt Bucker,
The site is run by Prime Digitalworks, a sub of Prime Media. PD is run by Tony Surtees, a former VP of Yahoo! - and you can see the cheesy over-the-top style through the site.
Prime is owned by Paul Ramsey - see here.
Thanks for the info gents. I do admit when I first came across the site I was almost shocked at it’s “simplicity” and thought it to be a bit of a piss take/News Ltd. write off. But it’s not hard to see the Channel 7 angle with all big, basic and colourful presentation “Nintendo” style.
Technically the link through the Advertiser was from a Google generated ad and considering Google owns Yahoo it’s all falling into place lol.
It looks a bit too “civil” for the LaRouchites when taking in their spectacular implosion on the Swindle panel and the lack of Carbon-14 jargon!
I predict that if the polls continue in the trend against the libs and particularly if Maxine looks poised to take his seat, Howard will have a health scare before the election (a suspected heart attack on his morning walk?) and will have to bow out of politics before we get the chance to vote him out.
I predict I will never like Rudd.
I predict my lack of respect for the ex rock star, once environmentalist and now MP will contintue to drop and he will never redeem his cred.
Dear Ecumenical Interventionist Omnipotent Omniscient God
Thank you for giving your servant Reverend Gordon Moyes such a wonderful turn of phrase.
Sincerely
Liam
How’s this for an editorial from the Australian? They’ve shat on Howard.
Whoops. Link?
People should not support the Greens. You’ll only make yourself less attractive to the opposite sex and the rest of the community will lose respect for you. Nobody likes the Greens. The Greens are smelly.
Donate money Kevin07.
Is Bush about to spoil the APEC party and not turn up? Greg Sheridan may be paving the way for a late and devastating announcement. Poor man of steel may be left with a lead balloon.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/gregsheridan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bush_no_show_would_be_a_blow_to_apec/
To pick up on a frightening possibility raised on another thread, if the American president was to engineer a global crisis involving the invasion of Iran, would this be just the rabbit that Dear Leader requires to be miraculously removed from hat?
Joe2 - interesting, but another interpretation is that Sheridan has carefully set the whole thing up to climax with the closing line:
“If, in the light of all this, Bush makes it to Sydney after all and stays until Saturday night, it will be a tribute to his commitment to Prime Minister Howard.”
There’s your take-home message.
I went to your link Joe2 but gave up halfway through Sheridan’s pathetic “b.b.but Clinton” tirade.
Gawd Shaun I wasn’t suggesting it as a top read. Just wondering whether the ground is being prepared for another Ratty disappointment. George might want to stay at home to continue his sabre rattling against Iran from a safer bunker, for instance. Joke. As FDB suggests, though, Sheridan might have other motives. Just specalatin.
Adrian,
Something I forgot to mention in my post on the US/Iran thread. I don’t think Bush can declare war on Iran constitutionally without the consent of Congress. Which the Democrats who control it will not give. They’d rather go after Ben Laden.So that’s a rabbit that will have to stay in JWH’s hat.
He managed to get troops into Iraq without declaring war, Paul Burns, and thus neatly sidestepping the issue of consent from Congress. Can’t see why BushCo couldn’t work out a way to do the same again to send troops into Iran if they want to badly enough.
That’s not quite right, tigtog. Congress did vote on authorising him to deploy troops in Iraq. Hence all the angst about Hillary refusing to say that she voted the wrong way.
Heh, it is Sheridan Joe so I wasn’t expecting a top read.
You’re right re Sheridan’s intent. I was just surprised that most of the article seemed to be a hankering for the good ole days of 1992-2000.
The Bush presidency in its final stages and still b.b.but Clinton is the best argument his supporters have.
Considering the disposition of US forces as they stand, I think there isn’t an actual practical way to have an aggressive ground assault in Iran. That would require a draft, a virtual political impossibility unless the Iranians like nuked Chicago, which I don’t see coming soon. The only realistic aggressive US military posture would be air strikes, which I also don’t really think are forthcoming, at least not without several months of very vocal posturing and sabre-rattling from both sides as a prelude, and much more plausible escalation and provocation. I don’t think Bush has anything remotely like the necessary political standing, nor does the US have the necessary global moral credibility anymore (see point A), to launch anything like that.
Isn’t it more likely that these little maneuverings and spitball-attacks are an attempt to create some sort of leverage for a semi-negotiated quasi-settlement within the region? Sooner or later the US has to come to some kind of negotiated terms with Iran vis-a-vis Iraq; it can’t be avoided because the Iranians, well, live there after all, and they can’t very well move. Pity Bush’s people didn’t take these rather obvious considerations into account before charging into this train-wreck.
Nicely nuanced, j_p_z. I would hope that a US president may think your way. And in a sane world, that is how a US president should think. Have you thought of running for office?
Unfortunately, nuance appears to be at a premium in today’s White House.
I’m quite confident that Bush wants to do something dramatic. The question is, who in the administration, or outside it (Laura? LAURA!!!) can deflect POTUS?
Bob Baer ex CIA agent, on this mornings RN, suggested that Bush would be able to go after Iran without a need to check in with congress. He used the term “hot persuit” as ‘acceptable justification’, for a president, when chasing down iranian special guard forces attacking ‘his’ troops in Iraq.
Shrub has nothing much to lose and it would seem that he has the power.
Phil Travers - all pensions are indexed to CPI. Pollies, who get paid a pittance for what they do at all levels, have an independent body set their remuneration. What’s your beef?
Interest rate fallout.
Yep, when even the GG has jumped ship, things are looking grim for team Rodent.
I don’t know whether all these observations on Bush’s power or lack of power to declare war on Iran reassure me or not. While I like to propose arguments as to why it can’t happen, my gut feeling is with the madmen we’ve got running the world today, it probably will.
But to a different piece of electoral speculation. Has anybody wondered what might happen electorally if the presnt devastating outbreak of horse flu is somehow linked to the funding and staff cuts made to AQIS by Howard around, I think, 2001? And because of the requirements of the Aust/UD FTA?
Of course, the ALP would have some problems here as well, since that cut 30% of the AQIS staff around 1995, also in the name of Free Trade.
I expect a deathly silence or mind-numbing spin, if people start thinking this way. But that’s what political blogging is about, isn’t it, apart from the sheer fun of it.
Christ that Australian editorial is so right. It’s difficult to feel sorry for a government that’s allowed capital gains tax to remain, that’s had company tax at 30% for over 5 years (from memory), that presides over a largely socialised health system, that hasn’t had the guts to really reform higher education and that’s introduced new regulations across industry at an almost unbelievable rate. Why do we have to wait for the ALP to get stuck in? It’s shameful.
BBB
Hi Paul - I was interested your comments early this morning about J.H’s reception when baby kissing etc……I have long been a Howard critic on policy at home and abroad, but more recently have become personally revolted by his body language on his walkabouts. He’s been glad-handing aboriginals,kissing babies, embracing the disabled and hugging adolescent skateboarders. The touching he seems to tolerate, but actual eye contact he doesn’t do - rather he’s usually smiling straight at the cameras! I am trusting my instinct that K.R. is a more wholesome human being. He does seem to invite a real response eg the tummy poking toddler, shown so often by the Chaser. A very tenuous sort of case for giving someone your vote, perhaps! I am also a Jo Hockey hater and a Lindsay Tanner fan! I love this site and will try to make a more cerebral contribution soon.
The federal election is almost upon us and the great celebrity candidate of the party of millionaires and yuppies Peter Garrett has almost gone missing. But the other day he piped up to tell all that he would reduce the living standard of SA Housing Trust tenants. Naturally these people are among the poorest in the community.
The Housing Trust keeps the ongoing bills of the tenants lowest by not using Gas in the new houses it builds. The policy saves your average tenant about $100 per yr, yet the multi millionaire Garrett is determined to force me to pay $2 per week because of his religious belief in AGW and what ought to be done about it. He believes I must be compelled to use gas to heat my water! No more electric water heating the green authoritarians have decided to compel me! People who are interested in lifting the standard of living of the poor were not to be consulted and the ABC types have not reported the consequence of the Garrett policy announcement. I have not heard one comment about this cost burden on their ABC.
Now I have said before that when the election arrives and battlers start to pay attention to what is proposed for them by the anti democratic forces that currently contend for power then they might suddenly swing on the issue of Global Warming / Climate Change, but not the way that people have assumed.
Garrett’s ALP really do believe that carbon has to be taxed one way or another to reduce the use of coal etc and punters ought to know by now that Howard won’t do it. This first serve from Garrett proves the point and I now know people that I can inform of this uncompensated fact. They might be interested in looking out for their own interest.
If swing voters in marginal seats want to pay more for petrol, electricity, housing, water etc then they will vote ALP (or Greens first). But if they want to stop this type of policy from Garrett then they could either keep voting for Howard or just put in a blank.
I’ll be putting in a blank.
“I’ll be putting in a blank.”
Yeah right, you stooge.
Your quite wrong! I have been voting informally for more than thirty years.
I was only having a go - I know you Maoist types don’t like participating in democracy - so much the better. How could you vote when the policies you like are all far-right but you call yourself far-left?
BBB, it sounds to me that you’re going to change your vote to Labor.
Yes, Mark, but what I was responding to was the phrase “declaring war”. There has been no formal declaration of war from the USA against Iraq, and the troops are there anyway.
But yes, the Dems seem to fold like beaten eggwhites whenever BushCo threatens to paint them as not tough enough on terror, and it doesn’t seem that holding the House majority now is going to make any difference.
Don’t tempt me, silkworm. The ALP is basically a party of neoliberalism (sure, there’s tinkering around the edges, like in IR, but the gist is the same). So they’re already halfway there in my book. Are they capable of proper economic reform, though? It’s fair to assume that the ALP will move further to the right once they get in. It’s the discipline of actually having to make real decisions, you see. And of course, I’ve never been comfortable with the social conservatism of the Howard/Abbott/Andrews unholy trinity. F*ck, you’ve got me talking myself into it… Wait, if I just recite: “the ALP will not reduce company tax” one hundred times, these feelings will go away. Won’t they?
BBB
The last time the US Congress declared war was in June 1942, against Axis satellites. Korea was a UN sanctioned ‘police action’ and ever since that it’s been Authorised Use of Military Force (AUMF). I blame the UN for getting all pissy over authorising wars and stuff. Like, omg.
j_p_z lays out clearly and concisely why the US is highly unlikely to bomb/invade Iran, I’ll just add that should either side start sinking ships in the Gulf of Hormuz you’ll see an Oil Shock that made OPEC 73 look like a spilt jerry can.
TigTog: “He..neatly sidestepping the issue of consent from Congress”.
Mark: “That’s not quite right, tigtog. Congress did vote on authorising him to deploy troops in Iraq”
TigTog:”Yes, Mark, but what I was responding to was (something else)”
Interesting example of a Classical Rhetoric technique: TigTog’s introduction of a plausible untruth is a Sophism, yes?
What’s the technical term for TigTog’s
“yes… but .. (it wasn’t a core truth, excusible cos it was only peripheral and supporting of my main arguement)”
volley? The Howard defense?
Pass the hemlock, please.
…( anyone remember the scene of rhetorical tennis in Stoppard’s Rosencrantz and guildernstern are dead” ? Gary Oldman and Tim Roth in title roles, excellent IMO.)..
been burning howard’s photo for weeks - he must come down with equine influenza soon!
Election related, I think: does this link for everybody else? It’s my attempt to get the QLD Electorate boundaries into Google Earth format:
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=987806
Certainly triggers google earth server login, a good start…
You gonna pin the usual booth polling booth places?
It would be a good idea, but I think I’m going to work on getting the other states out there first. I’ve got NT ready to go, by the way.
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=987803
Patrickm,
You have now moved from the western suburbs of Sydney back to Adelaide?
The sixty page report on fairness in Australia is here.
Key facts from the report:
Australia is ranked only 14th out of 18 OECD countries on the UN Human Poverty Index, behind most of Western Europe;
Australia is in the bottom third of rich nations for oral health for adults;
Australian spends less than the OECD average on education and we spend less than almost any OECD nation on early childhood education;
While Australia’s home ownership rate (70%) is one of the highest in the OECD, housing affordability is worse here than in any other English speaking OECD country;
While the Indigenous populations in NZ, the USA and Canada all have worse health than the rest of the population, the gap between Indigenous life expectancy and the rest of the population in Australia is approximately double the gap in NZ, USA and Canada;
While Australia’s unemployment rate is relatively low, the proportion of the working age population living in households where no one works is 5th highest in the OECD.
Reserve Bank shows personal Debt levels are still rising.