Malcolm Turnbull, as Minister for the Environment, has granted himself a six-week extension to further consider the Gunns pulp mill proposal.
Six weeks eh? If some commentators are correct and John Howard goes straight from the last APEC meeting to Government House to call an election, the Commonwealth’s Gunns decision is effectively postponed until after the election. Would Turnbull be brazen enough to postpone like this and then say yes to the pulp mill immediately after an election (if they won) or is this a sign that he’ll actually block the pulp mill? Either way, he’s given himself some leverage over the Tasmanian state Labor government and over Peter Garrett - leverage that will no doubt come in handy in an election campaign.
As Phil commented in a recent LP post on this,
I think we’re all about to find out how much Turnbull wants to be PM. There is no way some pipsqueak premier in the pocket of an industry that has no real future on the island is going to get his/their way.
Will he throw Gunns and Lennon under a bus? You bet.
I dearly hope that this flushes out Garrett and forces the Federal Labor Party to take a stand on this issue. Their wimpy response thus far has been an embarrassment.
And yes, I do think Turnbull is positioning himself as a future PM on this. It is a matter of leadership, and Turnbull is smart enough to understand the environmental implications of approving the mill.
And he’s smart enough to see a way to wedge Labor on it.
There is a horrible irony surrounding this whole dispute. On one side we have Malcolm Turnbull who was Chairman of the ARM during the Republic Referendum campaign. Turnbull - most foolishly - chose a Luvvie-First strategy, bombarding us with every nong, weather girl, golf caddie, soap starlet going. The Referendum was duly thrashed.
On the other side, we have Geoffrey Cousins who himself has opted for a Luvvie-First propaganda campaign wheeling out all the 1980s crowd such as David Williamson.
We should all be afraid as Geoffrey Robertson is in town. All we need now is for Robert Hughes to return and we can kiss goodbye to Tasmanian forests!
I suspect Turnbull’s going to have a terribly difficult time extracting himself from this one whatever decision he makes. If he goes ahead, he’s the Minister Against the Environment. If he blocks, he’s allowed himself to be bullied by celebs. Poor Malcolm’s been framed out of the picture.
Of course, he has to take a chunk of the blame. Calling Geoff Cousins a rich bully gets full marks for the stupidest comment by a pollie this year, against stiff competition. My grandmother is a conservative Wentworth resident and she and her friends are absolutely fuming about the remark. he may have lost himself the seat with one stupid, off-the-cuff remark, and I suspect he knows it.
My gut feeling is that he’s just going to delay right through to after the election. He can do that, so he will. Why would he make a decision? And Gunns would be happy, because they’d be pretty confident that, whoever wins, they’ll get the go ahead within days of the election.
Turnbull’s hand was forced by the publication the previous day of a full-page advertisement by Geoffrey Cousins asking whether he was Minister for the Environment or Minister against the Environment. As noted on Lateline last night, this may have been an astute political move, as the decision will be delayed for another three weeks, allowing it to fall within the “caretaker” period if Howard calls the election straight after APEC. According to convention, during the caretaker period, both the government and the opposition have to make the decision about the pulp mill, and this will force Garrett to come to the table. As Bob Brown noted last night, Peter Garrett has been missing in action over the pulp mill issue, apparently because Labor is in favour of the mill going ahead.
Can anyone point me to a good explanation of the objections to the mill?
On my brief perusal of the Gunns EIS, the concerns about dioxins and particulates seem rather overblown to me (the biggest particulate pollution issue in Tasmania is the open fires that Hobart residents seem to love) - it’s mainly that the mill will entrench high levels of logging in native forest.
Of course, that’s probably a good-enough reason not to proceed absent any other concerns.
Let’s remember that Tasmania’s forest issues present Labor with the fundamental issue. That is that the Unions are for woodchipping/mills. So does the ALP risk anger from the Unions as Latham did? Electorally speaking the experience of 2004 is that having Unions campaign against the ALP is not a good look.
I think that we need to call a spade a spade and state that the ALP is not and environmental friendly party. What Peter Garrett was thinking when he joined the ALP? He could have been a Green senator for the Greens by July next year.
this may have been an astute political move, as the decision will be delayed for another three weeks, allowing it to fall within the “caretaker� period if Howard calls the election straight after APEC.
I thought it would be delayed for six weeks and if Howard calls an election in two weeks time, with a four week campaign, the decision would fall after the election. ?
More information in the SMH.
No doubt this is a very clever move.
Robert, the Wilderness Society site on the mill is here.
The Richard Flanagan article in The Monthly, called Out of Control, which affected Cousins so much, can be found here.
suz, they surely must be in caretaker mode by six weeks, and as you say - that means no decision until after the election, unless cousins turns up the heat and forces malcom to make a committment to hold wentworth.
(btw silkworm – I thought caretaker mode means that the govt makes no big decisions, and has nothing to do with the opposition???)
the curse of wentworth is certainly throwing up a few curve balls, i think the extension has probably taken the heat off the issue a little, nationally, and allows malcolm to focus on the lennon factor. while lennon can play the turnbull factor in tassie.
can’t wait to see what cousins’ response will be……..this is just round 1, no doubt.
Lennon says in respect of the extension
what language is the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act written in? surely it would fairly obvious if an extension is prohibited?…..
anyway, i got the wentworth courier dropped onto the doorstep this morning, and cousins’ advert is on page 4 – a slim issue of 274 pages – mostly real estate ads. The community news supplement which comes packaged with the courier has a second article on the mill issue, pretty balanced reporting in both – just providing the story and main responses to date etc..
george newhouse in the supplement - says that while he and his party were yet to formalise their position on the mill, he had concerns with the process and supported extensive public scrutiny…(forget asking migrants about cricket – it’s wedging and avoiding the wedge – that’s our new national sport.)
John G – wentworth is lxvvie headquarters – yr not even expert on your own OC mania…you really should lay off the ice, bro.
anyway, off to see priscilla (a freebie darling) in true lxvvie-wentworth style…
As I said on Andrew Norton’s blog: Turnbull rose by celebrity and he’ll die by it. This is Birnam Wood on the move down a red carpet. He’s copping it from all sides and there is no groundswell to counter it. He could become Australia’s richest loser.
This is a no-win situation for the Libs. As far as the Tassie seats go, or Wentworth, they get punished either way.
If the mill goes ahead Turnbull gets no kudos for making the tough decisions, not from his own constituents, not from the Tasmanians and not in any of the other marginals. While that area is relatively high in unemployment it isn’t as though people are desperate for work and are prepared to play down the respiratory disease thing. It’s patronising to assume the cheering timberworkers of 2004 will cheer again this time, especially as they live in adjoining seats.
I think the mill will be kyboshed and Rudd/Garrett/Labor will not suffer by saying “me too”. Some will be frustrated but there’s plenty of work around so no harm done. A few pie-in-the-sky promises waft away but you get that. The real victim here is Paul Lennon, who looks like an absolute stooge and won’t be able to complain when the juicy bits of his job are sucked away to Canberra.
If the most famous working-class men in northern Tasmania, Todd ‘n’ Brant, come out and bag the mill then there is no way known it will go ahead.
It was clearly a mistake to give Garrett a frontline, high stakes role. Laurie Oakes was right: he should have started out in a job like Aboriginal Affairs or Arts and grown into a Cabinet-level role. I hope that’s the sort of portfolio he ends up with in government, provided Environment doesn’t go to some oaf like Joe Ludwig or Martin Ferguson.
Robert, the tourism angle is another major economic consideration. Having been to Tasmania myself for the first time recently as a tourist, I’d say the pulp mill and associated logging would undoubtedly be a big turn-off for visitors.
Someone in Tasmania told me that they have even factored into their assessment a big increase in road deaths due to increased logging.
New Coalition policy: Why do today what you can put off till tomorrow, cynical though it may be, it’ll probably work for Malcolm.
By the way, I’m loving the reactionary commentary regarding Cousins that’s coming from usually supportive quarters.
Akerman.
Parker and Partners PR flacks.
Heads exploding everywhere.
jo
Well DER! Have you seen that Sloaney investment-banker fembot wife of George Newhouse? Australian LABOR Party, my ass.
It’s not a smart move by Turnbull at all to delay the decision.
Right now, he is wearing the Minister against the Environment (possibly unfairly) who is in favour of the mill (which may or may not be true). That is the perception. If he opts to do nothing before the election that perception will stick, and he will terminated with extreme prejudice by his electorate.
You know, as time goes on, and the culture wars peter out, with their imaginary “pall of left-liberal censorship” rhetoric looking increasingly nonsensical after 11 years of Howard, its time the name the blowhards who havent realised the world is either moving on to more important matters.
May i get the competition rolling with the following suggestions:
“The culture war RSL”
“cultural irrelevantists” (or just “Irrellies” for those on a first name basis)
“Anachronistas”
“quadranters”
Any others?
If Gunns is only worth one tiny billion, why doesn’t the real opposition to old growth forest destruction mount a world wide campaign to buy them out and send them packing? Just trying to think a little bit laterally here.
Joe2: because Tasmania is a long, long way from the USA and Europe, and one billion dollars is a lot of money for a charity to raise, and, amazingly beautiful as Tasmania’s wilderness can be, it’s not the Amazon rainforest or the African savannah and doesn’t feature on quite as many wildlife documentaries.
Thanks Robert, but while you may say I’m a dreamer, I’m not the only one.
I hope someday you’ll join me and the world will live as one.
Phil is pretty perceptive. Turnbull and Howard probably have seen the writing in the polls in Tasmania - they are set to win no seats there. Better to shore up Sydney seats, as well as Turnbull’s appeal to a largely urban national electorate.
But it isn’t a wedge issue: if Turnbull says ‘yes’, Labor can either say ‘your decision’. Or, as Rudd has already implied. it will stall till after the election, and why wouldn’t it? Garrett/Rudd aren’t going to stop campaigning to play pretend government by ruling on thousands of pages of material.
Never trust a man whose family has spent generations naming offspring after Governor Bligh.
Malcolm Bligh Turnbull has the same autocratic approach as that notorious gentleman.
Is it any wonder that Wentworth might mutiny.
Throw some dollars at it, makes some promises etc
There are 20,000 public submissions to read… Admittedly most say exactly the same thing as they are form letters, but it gives a nice excuse for stalling.
Condemnation by association is the go now, is it? In another context this would be condemned as naked bigotry.
Assumption: JWH and Cousins are still mates. Prediction: JWH will scuttle pulp mill… “I have listened to the people”. Result: JWH hero of the green people.( Does he have no shame?)
AUSTRALIAN ass, my arse.
Suz: I doubt a pulp mill, on its own, is going to ruin Tasmania’s tourism. May I point you to the Queenstown moonscape, or the the heavy metals in the Derwent River from the Zinifex zinc smelter.
Tasmania is a beautiful place (if you ever get the chance, take a boat down the Derwent and around to Port Arthur - the cliffs are stunning), but it’s not all pristine wilderness.
Of course, if you can’t go bushwalking without seeing a logging coupe, that might put a crimp in tourism…
Don’t get me wrong - I’m not supporting the project by any means. But I’d like to see the opposition’s arguments in more detail, to see which ones stand up. For instance, I’d wonder whether the increased road deaths takes into account alternative economic activity that might result if the pulp mill wasn’t built (tourists in cars on Tasmania’s twisty roads kill themselves on a fairly regular basis, for instance). My guess is that the logging is the biggie, but I’d like some more detailed information to make a judgement. Maybe some of the evidence Flanagan refers to in his article might be worth a look.
While you’re about it, factor in a healthy and growing gourmet agriculture, dairy and wine industry, which relies on a clean environmental image for its selling point. It ain’t just tourism. And this sector employs thousands, while the mill will eventually employ 200-odd workers. Not exactly a solution to Tas’s employment woes.
Suz: I doubt a pulp mill, on its own, is going to ruin Tasmania’s tourism. …
Tasmania is a beautiful place (if you ever get the chance, take a boat down the Derwent and around to Port Arthur - the cliffs are stunning), but it’s not all pristine wilderness.
And the Tamar Valley and Launceston certainly aren’t pristine wilderness but they were almost our favourite place (we’re urbanites) and I think the pulp mill would wreck tourism to the Tamar.
But it’s not just that place - before we went, I was told by one Sydneysider who’d been to Tasmania recently (to do the Cradle Mountain walk) that seeing the logged hills and the logging trucks on the way to and from the walk had been so upsetting she wouldn’t go back.
And what Helen said.
update: dear malcolm was also at priscilla - it was a charity performance….he was looking a ‘little tired’…boo hoo……
you wouldn’t be a pollie for quids.
wentworth has quite a few other cross party, cross faction battles going on– malcolm gazumped rudd’s $20 million jewish school’s security measure – which was announced a few weeks ago. (14% jewish vote in wentworth)
george is a good jewish boy – which should shore up bondi at least, but I can’t see him cutting much more into woollahra LGA and so far the synagogues are lining up for the catholic convert, according the shane easson via imre:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22337310-11949,00.html
gay rights is another one – with the addition of the cross and parts of darlo into the electorate….but will malcolm’s keen support for gay rights - be similar to his vote on the RU486 bill?…..he actually voted BOTH ways - for the bill, and for the amendment… like wtf??
i can’t see the pink vote turning blue – more likely redder.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/turnbull-takes-on-mission-for-gay-and-lesbian-rights/2007/08/12/1186857348360.html
re: pulp mill - the green primary vote in wentworth was 11% in 2004.
in the 2007 state poll - in coogee state seat - which is a huge hunk of southern wentworth – the greens polled 21% with about 80%2pp to alp & in vaucluse state seat – the northern half of wentworth - the greens just outpolled labor with 20% – peter debnam increased his 2pp 6% off the back of labor preferences. state polls are sort of meaningless - except that loads of wentworth voters have voted green 1 – in local/state & federal polls - & if the ALP can capture ALL green preferences….including those last few cent etc (and convert many more to primaries)…so many preferences, so little authentic policy difference on environment issues……
speaking of which, just a few headlands south, mal’s shadow – lucky peter garrett was gifted kingsford smith by local anti-hero laurie ‘danger man’ brereton – some parts of kingsford smith are now very, very pricey esp. in the northern parts – clovelly, coogee (ex-phillip) but it’s pretty hard to tart up long bay gaol, the coogee south/maroubra housing commission, port botany oil refineries, mascot underpass etc – a solid 9% margin, before workchoices. (& i’d back the bra boys voting labor), so pete is sleeping way more soundly than malcolm.
boo hoo again!!
i’m sure others have pointed how eerily similar the pulp mill issue is to - the franklin dam in 1983 – crazy, out of control (state owned) corporation the Hydro-Electric was busy flooding half of tassie and telling the exact same lies about employment and community benefits like Gunns, and had the same power over state pollies as Gunns………cross fingers for the same outcome as ‘83.
Thanks suz for the link to the flanagan article – will email to some locals…
The Gunns’ “acceptance” of the delay in decision as per thr SMH link from suz shows the farce of the whole situation. Gunns threatened the Tasmanian Government (Gay spoke directly Lennon) to that it would cancel the project and go offshore if the review/approval wasn’t fast-tracked.
Lennon duly scrapped the RPDP process and drew up legislation to fast-track the review/approval by the Tasmanian Parliament in a way that precluded public hearings and was legislated that it was unchallengeable in the Tasmanian courts even if errors were found, or corrupt or illegal activity was found to have occurred.
Turnbull doesn’t escape blame from this. He agreed to a new “review” that didn’t conform to the original Federal RPDP process, but was also a fast-track process. Now Cousins and friends have caught him in the spotlights and he’s blinked.
And Gunns have now blinked. Now Gunns say they will abide by an extended process that goes past where the original RPDP process would have ended. This just shows both the corruption of the Tasmanian political process by Gunns and Lennon, and the suckering to pressure from Gunns.
As a Tasmanian, who grew up 10km from the proposed mill site, and having read some of the reports, I am against it on the local environmental grounds. Another significant factor is that the Mill will require extended logging of native forests for some time before the plantations have matured to provide it’s supplies. And I can guess that once built and access to native forest is granted Gunns has incentive to delay plantations and press for more native forest access. This would reduce their costs and improve margin.
suz’ later post and jo’s regards the similarity with the 1983 Franklin Dam scenario are correct. Then it was the HEC riding roughshod over the state government to the extent that a Premier was rolled on by his own “colleagues” on account of his standing up to them. Then we had Federal Labor riding to the rescue with Bob Brown and The Greens. This time both federal Labor and Liberal are wimping on account of the “Latham effect” from the 2004 election.
It’s good to see (long overdue) some real publicity and political heat be generated. It gives us all some hope that there are democratic solutions to undemocratic activities by both business and parties.
And if anyone wants to argue that “Tasmanians support the mill” they are wrong; polls ahve consistently shown more oppose than support it.
I can’t help thinking Labor are happy to have the decision deferred - one Labor honcho was quoted in the Fin today saying “we can just quietly go along with it”. Pathetic.
I have to laugh at the Greens on this issue. Do they think Howard would pause for one second in approving this pulp mill? They get upset because they want Garrett to take a heroic stance, stuff the election, look good in losing. Then Howard can approve the mill aferwards. But at least Garrett stood up like a man (fool). The Greens have the luxury of sitting on the side-lines and say whatever they like Labor should do.
THEY should realise
1. Howard is their worst enemy and the enemy of the environment
2. This election is not going to be a walk-over and a few seats here and there may make the difference - so they can’t act like millionaires with seats
3. You simply cannot make a determination on how Green or not Labor is from this election campaign. But if you want to think about it look at the make-up of Labor - they are mostly Green friendly.
4. You will get a nuclear industry fast-tracked with Howard
5. Howard & Co only intend fake action on Climate Change so as to not put out business [the green mafia]
6. Labor is also strongly in favour of renewable energies
7. Turnbull would be beholden to the right of the Liberal party. Don’t think he gets to push a more social Liberal party.
There is only one issue at the moment - winning the election. The pulp mill issue they need to play in terms of that.
The Greens have the advantage of not being an alternative government. They can exist by appealing to one part of the spectrum. They should be like Labor single minded in outing Howard and his government - it is only then can they make any decent headway on environmental issues.
How does it “stuff” the election since a majority of people in Tasmania are opposed to it?
Do the majority of Tasmanians oppose it?
They need to play the issue in terms of election strategy - whatever position they take. They especially need to assess what effect each position has.
If Howard assumes that Tasmania is a lost cause then he might cancel it to keep Turnbull safe in his seat.
Makes you wonder why they dont use their favorite answer to these things - let Tasmania vote on it. Maybe a new method of govt, anything you dont want the blame for put it to a vote.
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=414367
I think there’ve been previous polls of the whole of Tasmania.
Howard to ensure Mill will be built regardless.
Boss takes heat for Wentworth celebrity, Lennon happy, Gunns and their pushy hanky-head friends (who do not vote) appeased, and more wealthy yet, “Short Memories must hava, sho-o-ort memory…”