… a delightful phrase from Christopher Pearson’s contribution to the Government Gazette today, where the punditariat are at sixes and sevens, with Shanahan and Pearson insisting Howard should not stand down, responding to the earlier calls by their colleagues Albrechtsen and Kelly. It’s hard to work out from Pearson’s column whether he’s trashing the reliability of the polls or lauding them, but it is amusing to watch the contortions he executes to try to convince himself with irrelevant narratives about campaigns past that the Dear Leader is still in with a chance.
The Prime Minister has the look of a campaigner who’s in it to win it, because he knows he still can, perhaps by quite a comfortable margin when the time comes.
Howard himself couldn’t be that silly, and perhaps Pearson isn’t either. The column may well be designed to prop up backbenchers’ morale and to turn the “media narrative” about salvation from annihilation lying in the annihilation of Howard around. But they’re all kidding themselves. Insiders talking to other insiders, and the rest of the country long ago moved on… And believers in both the almighty evil prince Murdoch and the authority of his commentator army should disabuse themselves of any such notions. The confusion and flailing about as two factions within the GG punditariat try to push alternate delusional lines to create competing political effects should be evidence of that.
That great psephologist Dennis, aside from being confused about how many seats Labor needs to take office, takes some comfort in the “odds” on individual seats, a silly meme we’re seeing all around the shop among the ranks of the self-delusional Coalition backers. The sad truth is that most of the pools for individual seats are probably tiny, if there is any money on some of them at all. The hard nosed strategists within the campaign wouldn’t be taking any notice – with the Libs shifting real campaign resources to defend up to 40 seats while Labor is putting money into seats with margins above 10%. They’re relying on internal tracking polls, and in that context, there’s a fabulous post by the psephological find of the year, Possums Pollytics, deconstructing the leaked Crosby/Textor research that everyone should read. A lot of myths will be laid into their graves this year, including that of the invulnerability of Crosby/Textor and the “rabbit in the hat” thesis. The truth is that Crosby/Textor are evidently doing a great job of documenting the entrails of the Coalition’s decline, but as strategists rather than pollsters, they’ve come up empty.
Possum is on the money with this:
The Coalition is running a firewall strategy, but a firewall strategy that is ten points deep and without having a financial capability to defend a wall of seats that thick.
Firewall strategies fail nearly everywhere they are used by a government to defend incumbency – but they have succeeded when the aim is not win the election, but to simply save the party an enormous defeat.
Clearly there is a firewall strategy in place, but equally clearly, it is just too many points and seats deep for the finances available to run it effectively.
Howard has conceded the election, but he hasn’t told his backbenchers, he hasn’t told his marginal seat holders and the only question left to answer is which seats the Liberal leadership has actually decided to sacrifice and which ones will be properly funded in the firewall.
All this twaddle about the election being a circuit breaker is simply for Coalition internal consumption. The Liberal leadership knows they’ve lost, they’ve conceded the election (which is why they are running a firewall strategy) but they’re in the unenviable position of not being able to tell their own marginal seat holders simply to prevent a riot breaking out and turning a defeat into a political execution.
I also felt my brain being compromised reading Mr Pearson’s analysis today. The whole shop seems in disarray. Albrechtson is a rat jumping the sinking ship (but do we expect her to resign from the ABC board, as a person of principle might). Shanahan is living in the twilight world of self-deception, and Matt Price doesn’t seem to have been told what he should be writing now. They need a strong hand down there at the Gazette, and come out strongly for a handing of the batten to Bronwyn Bishop, the electorate needs a good bit of S&M at this time.
Heh!
So blogworld is like Alaska in Summer? Are their bears and stuff?
More today from the GG’s favourite genre of the ‘PM has secret powers to win no matter how bad the polls are‘. Apparently simply calling the election is a “circuit breaker”. WTF? They really are getting desperate now. Once again this was uncritically cited from a Liberal.
What no one appears to understand is that Howard is omnipotent. No matter what the polls say, Howard always finds a way to come out on top. His poo don’t stink, he will never grow old and he is the master of political strategy because only he out of the 21 million people who live in this country actually understands our aspirations.
The Howard remedy for all ills is tax cuts, IR reform and spend enough on waverers to ensure their self interest indicator comes in to play.
This election will be no different!
You get the feeling that these guys have never quite worked up the courage to wander out onto the Internets – either that, or Rupert has a good firewall (i.e., not the NetAlert filter) set up that keeps them from stumbling onto what anyone else is saying so they can feel comfortable inside their own echo chamber. So the dischord inside the GG comfort zone at the moment must be a worry for them. Should we back Howard or Costello? Which one deserves to be anointed? Who can save our beloved government?
So who gets to decide who’s Core Coalition and who’s non-core Coalition with respect of their Firewall positioning?
Surely those who are being “let go” will know so when their calls are no longer returned and funds get thin. These shaftees are gonna go ape anyway. Should be quite a spectacle.
Interesting too about Textor, he went to the UK to work on the last Tories campaign and failed miserably……no question their reputation as electoral spinmeisters is just about finished.
Possum says (per the link above):
Taking these one by one,
Defence and security: Taken a big hit with the Haneef case, but with Bush and the Iraq issue on the nose with electors here I think that issue is neutralised unless Howard is lucky with a terrorist attack on our soil. Even then I’d suggest a “Spanish” response is possible, negative to the LNP.
Another interest rate rise before the election? That’d tend to sink Howard’s argument but I’d suggest that it’s an issue that more and more people realise is in the hands of the international economy rather than politicians who only input with pork barrelling for example.
Lower taxes: I’d say it’s a factor and Howard could surprise us but it would not be as effective as actual pork in people’s pockets. And would be likely to come up against the traditional argument that people don’t mind taxes as long as it provides a tangible service. Lower tax would be an admission that some kind of rippoff has been practised. Voter cynicism may well negate a tax cut policy.
Strong leadership: Now taking a big hit with big time rats leaving Ratty’s ship at the GG. And to compound the problem, peddling the line of $AllTip taking the reins. If Howard is on the nose, Cozzie is the leadership stench that the LNP doesn’t need at this point. Ditto strong team analysis, but I guess this will be fought more in the negative, that the ALP represents inexperience, but that dog won’t run so well going on Rudd’s recent APEC statemanship record.
All in all, I can’t see these issues being winners for Howard. His fighting on these issues may very well be overwhelmed by a very slick Rudd campaign. I predict Rudd will put forward a humdinger of a vision thing, hammering infrastructure and education investment. That may well be the last nails needed for Howard’s political coffin. That Rudd gets a 60% 2PP result is a possibility I entertain now where I didn’t before.
To my thinking, most of the stuff printed at the GG these days is illustrative more of desperation than rational analysis.
There’s no circuit breaker, it’s been a short circuit and the circuit breaker has vaporised.
It smells like 1996. The electorate has stopped listening and nobody reads columnists like Albrechtsen anyway. Let ‘em spin this delusional nonsense: it’s fun to watch.
However, regarding Possum’s comment in his excellent long post, why would the ALP have started targeting Coalition held seat with a margin over 10%? Is it because they’re cashed up and regard those Coalition seats under 10% as being in control? Hope it’s not overconfidence.
Can’t see how taxes can work in Howard’s favour. The surplus is available to both parties because Labor’s not making lots of spending promises, so it can easily match anything Howard pledges on the tax front. The federal government has more money than it knows what to do with, it’s embarrassing, and that will continue in the short term no matter who’s in power.
Indeed. What is happening is that the permanent election campaign has backfired because voters would really rather only think about it 1 or 2 days, maybe weeks, out, or indeed on the day.
Now, whose idea was the permanent election campaign again?
Martin I think it’s because they are cashed up, a large swing is on and many seats even up to 10% margins are winnable. I wouldn’t call it overconfidence, though it could be argued that sweet revenge for 11 years of losses is a strong motivation. (Putting the boot in is what I’d call it.)
To effectively destroy what is left of the so called “liberal” party for a generation is a once in a lifetime opportunity, and a fitting response to the LNP trying to destroy the ALP and more particularly trade unionism. Destroying Ratty’s “legacy” will (to be Keatingesque), be the sweetest victory of all time.
Go Ruddy.
“The federal government has more money than it knows what to do with, it’s embarrassing, and that will continue in the short term no matter who’s in power.”
Yep, Ken. The election is so close, surely, that the libs will find it difficult to piss that much cash around, in a logical and thought out manner, on the critical trees, to make it work. Jeff Kennett, when similarly left with a large wallet could only think about his own coterie and lost.
Howard and team seem, so rattled, that they will either go for martial law or Peter Costello.
Heh.
or
Well I’m with that Pearson fellow, no matter what you say Kim. You sound so darn sure Ratty is going to lose that it’s scary. But 11 long years of Rattydom has inured me to the doldrums of defeat. No matter what you say, or what anybody else says the election is not a done deal. It’s not all over till the Fat Lady sings, and you know Ratty still could win. Dunlop was warning that Ratty could still scrape in with a few marginals the other day and Matt Price was saying that many Coalition people privately think they will hang onto their seats. I have also seen crows flying backwards and sheep bleating sounds similar to what canaries make, so you never know.
Anyway, what is going to make champagne taste better on election night? Something expected, or something totally out of the blue?
Maxine McKew, driving a wooden stake into Ratty, in Bennelong.
While playing Rock n Roll by Led Zeppelin.
“Anyway, what is going to make champagne taste better on election night? Something expected, or something totally out of the blue?”
Yer, St Margaret, it could go really grim that night. Beyond blue. Who knows?
Whatever happens, while Jeff was one the of architects for ‘workfarces’, he helped put in place the liberals idea of the ‘safety net’ , available to all.
http://www.beyondblue.org.au/
“Maxine McKew, driving a wooden stake into Ratty, in Bennelong…”
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Er, I mean – quite.
Joe2 – There’ll be a lot of phone calls to Beyond Blue, if Ratty wins, but I’m prepared………
Looks to me like Pearson was trying to dissuade Liberal backbenchers from rushing for the lifeboats.
The gesture embodied in Pearson’s column is therefore a plea for Liberal backbenchers to desist from knife Howard and replacing him with someone else.
Further, that would suggest that Howard has let it be known that it would be less humliating for him personally were he to die with his boots on, losing to Rudd, rather than to be assassinated on a sqalid backstaris landing, the victim of a leadership putsch.
“Joe2 – There’ll be a lot of phone calls to Beyond Blue, if Ratty wins, but I’m prepared………”
St Margaret , can you get it without a doctors subscription?
Katz, so Ratty should lead them into the jaws of Death. He captained this ship from the start so the least he could do is jolly well go down with it. Besides any bailout now from Ratty won’t leave any time for the self-congratulatory strains of his favourite glorious music that he always felt was his due upon his final departure.
Yes mick, there are. In fact several grizzlies are trying to access this blog right now, plus a herd of elk and some pandas. Thank god they don’t have opposable thumbs.
With four very high quality poll commentators in the aus blogosphere these MSM hacks are looking more irrelevant every week.
“I have also seen crows flying backwards and sheep bleating sounds similar to what canaries make, so you never know”.
St Margaret, are you sure you were talking to the right end?
Maxine McKew is now certain to win Bennelong, according to a Labor staffer acquaintance of mine.
Also, according to my source, they will win bucketloads of marginals. Interestingly, until very recently, this person was keeping a very tight lid on any demonstrations of confidence. All such inhibitions are now gone.
(Of course this is just an anonymous post on a blog, so anyone would be justified in ignoring it. But it will happen.)
Fortunately, there are still SOME good commentators in the MSM:
The Queensland Libs changed their leader for similar reasons just before the last state election and that worked real well. I encourage their Tory Federal mates to do likewise. Starting an election campaign with a good bungle and belly laugh is always a fun thing to do. I do believe that Albrechtsen might finally have done the right thing by the Australian people with this brilliant strategy.
Imagine the baseball bats getting prepared when the man responsible for producing the highest taxing Government in the history of Australia turns up to present himself as the alternative Prime Minister.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I think John Howard will decide to retire very soon, and a combination of appalling opinion polls and the recent birth of his first grandchild will give him reason enough to want to leave. He will couch it in such a way as to suggest that he ISN’T jumping off that sinking ship; more that he has decided that thirty-odd years in politics is long enough and he now wants to spend more time with his family (expect heavy mentions of being a grandfather now).
Thus, the “circuit-breaker” the Libs and their fellow travellers are after will not be calling the election, it will be The Retiring Rodent. What this circuit-breaker will do is buy a little extra time for the Coalition – it will give them a chance to choose a new leader and then beg the electorate’s indulgence a little bit further to wait and watch to see what the opinion polls do before calling the election.
December 8 election, I think.
The typical Liberal these days is likely to retort, “You say it as if it is a bad thing.”
The Liberal Party is an election machine retooled to parlay the unexamined prejudices and fears of aspirational wood-ducks into publicly-funded careers for Howard loyalists.
Unfortunately for Howard and his Praetorian Guard, prosperity has simply stimulated the greed and fear of Howard’s core constituency. Like drug addicts, many aspirationals have come to hate their supplier because he can’t provide enough at the right price.
The big question for Australia is going to be how Rudd will persuade these folks go cold turkey. Because, for sure, the will be a curb upon the subsidisation of their lifestyles.
But does Jeannette want to leave Kirribilli House?
The Christopher Pearson article in the weekend Australian came awfully close to saying that polls are useful guides when they agree with the assumptions we already have.
Well, it’s not over yet, and some are overconfident. (Eg. earlier in this thread someone said that McKew is “certain” to beat Howard.) However, saying there is a slight *chance* of Liberal victory is very different to tipping a Liberal win, which is what Pearson is doing. What could possibly lead one to think that the Libs are more likely to win? Other than a spooky belief in the intrinsic invincibility of Howards?
A.C. Nielsen is out. 57:43. (Compares with 55:45 in their last poll.)
Put down the glasses. It’s over.
You never know what could happen – for example a terrorist attack, or (the highly unlikely) suggestions that Kevin Rudd is implicated in some horrible criminal conspiracy. Who knows what could happen.
Don’t know if you watched West Wing, but the Republican guy was ahead the whole time until a nuclear reactor he approved 30 years ago blew up. You just can’t predict these extreme events.
Don’t take all that ‘twilight world’ stuff too seriously; he actually keeps quite a beady eye on the blogosphere. (Dontcha, CP. *waves*)
But a twilight world compared to what, I wonder — the vision splendid of the sunlit plains extended* that is the Oz and all her lesser Australian MSM sistahs?
*And he sees the vision splendid of the sunlit plains extended
And at night the wondrous glory of the everlasting stars.
– Banjo Paterson, ‘Clancy of the Overflow’
Wonder if the final blow to the coalition would be to run a comical campaign based on’ there is so much more to do’ after squandering eleven years.
This “twilight world of the blogs” – is it anything like the demi-monde, or the floating world of 19th century Japan? That could be fun.
Or is it all last act of Gotterdammerung stuff, with the offices of the Government Gazette collapsing into flame and ruin? That wouldn’t be so bad either.
It’s Bolt, Albrechtson and Kelly versus Ackerman, Pearson and Shanahan.
Not even the script writers at the WWF could dream up a contest so sick, yet so compelling.
He’s going nowhere Lynda, and neither should he. He should stick around and cop the double humiliation of losing both government and his seat. The desperate fantasists at the GG might actually believe that Costello would make a difference (and he would only make it worse), but honestly …
It’s payback time. Did I mention I’m a Howard Hater?
A bit like Collingwood versus itself in the final of the century.
Well, Kim, I’m glad to hear it’s already all over. I guess the ALP need hardly bother campaigning any more. Their candidates can all now take a well-earned holiday to refresh them for the hard work of government that lies ahead. Anyone out there who was thinking of letter-boxing or handing out HTV cards for the ALP — guys, you really don’t need to. Your victory is a done deal. Take it from Kim.
By the way, who came up with the insulting term ‘Government Gazette’ for the Oz? This was the paper that pursued the Government relentlessly over the AWB scandal. That funded a very expensive High Court challenge recently to force the Government under FOI to release documents that would have been highly embarrassing for the Treasurer (unfortunately, the paper lost). That published the accusations of Mike Scrafton, a former Defence public servant, that he had directly told Howard the truth about the ‘children overboard’ issue.
The latter was published on the Australian’s front page, with huge headlines that I still remember: “HOWARD LIED”. I cannot recall a stronger “J’accuse!” against the Howard government from any media source.
“Government Gazette”, indeed. Perhaps you prefer the Green Left Weekly?
Sorry, that previous comment contained an inaccuracy. The Australian’s page one article was entitled “Howard was told the truth”, not “Howard Lied”. (Memory playing tricks on me in old age, evidently.)
Still pretty damning stuff from a supposed “Government Gazette”.
I suggest you have a read of Margaret Simons’ Crikey article about the differing agendas at play in the pages of The Australian – she was responding to its characterisation on blogs as the GG. Let’s just say it’s nowhere near as simple as “straight reporting” or for and against the gov’t. However, the editorial and op/ed pages certainly deserve the designation (with the exceptions of the token and boring and predictable Adams, Michael Costello and Ross Fitzgerald). Refer also to various documented rejections of op/eds putting a different view by Tom Switzer on the grounds that “this is a right wing paper”.
Anyway, I’m way too tired to find it in the Crikey archive or google the refs to Switzer.
I believe the moniker originated here with Lefty E. The second meme he’s spread virally all over the place this year – the first being that Campbell Newman as Brisbane’s Lord Mayor will be the most senior Liberal pollie left standing if Rudd wins.
Katz, your comment about the public becoming like drug addicts is exactly what I was thinking to describe most of our society these days.
Howard has constantly sung a “you can have it all” tune which if taken at face value it rubs people the wrong way when you say things like “you’ve never had it better”. He’s created a country full of blood thirsty consumers with an insatiable hunger for more than their pay packets can provide. Sadly you can’t expect much more from a Liberal government than to place worshipping the almighty dollar above all else and “we” need to be weened off of the ever ascending and out of reach carrot.
Love your ‘Collingwood versus itself’ image, CK. Reading about the plots afoot inside the federal Lib caucus put me in mind of an alternative historical image, though: Himmler and Bormann plotting in April ’45 to oust the Boss and negotiate a deal with the western allies…
Yeah, I know, Godwin’s law.
Is anyone keeping comment stats on this blog site?
Would really be interested to know just how anti and pro Howard comments stack up in percentages.
The “twilight world of the blogs”:) does not appear to be running Howard’s way from where I sit.
Philp Adams may bore you, Mark, but I think he’s feral in print. Do you recall his rants in The Australian a few years ago, where he saidd we were inches away from fascism, and predicted that persons such as his good self would be thrown in jail by the Liberal govt as political prisoners, etc? Amazing nonsense.
Yet on his wireless show he can be the sweet voice of wide reading and skilful interviewing.
Ambigulous, I think he’s a superb radio presenter but a boring columnist. In the latter role, he’s very predictable indeed.
His columns are so self-indulgent! It’s like wanky musings are intrinsically valuable just because they come from him. The self-important ironism (oh none of it really matters, I’m just gonna sneer) really bugs me…).
Alas, Mark, I don’t have a Crikey subscription or the 100 bucks (or whatever it costs these days) to get one.
Oh yes, overall it certainly is a right-wing paper. But there are two varieties of those:
a) the sort that have their values and don’t hesistate to criticise left and right governments alike from the basis of those values (eg The Economist)
b) apologists and mouthpieces for right-wing governments.
The Oz is a) but not b).
Paulus, you can read the archives from previous months at Crikey for free.
Loved that joke Paulus:
Did the GG change their political colours this morning?
Have a look at what happens when someone tries to behave as the GG has towards the Labour Movement.
Actually Phillip Adams columns can be quite illuminating
and well-written when he can be persuaded to avoid ranting about Howard or organized religion. On the former subject he was my only source of succour until I discovered political blogs a couple of years ago. You could now say I’ve outgrown him — the vitriol in blogland comes in so many different flavours!
A column about Werner Herzog and his “best fiend” Klaus Kinski that Adams wrote 5-6 years ago still sticks in my mind. Come to think of it, I wonder if Latham was channelling Kinski in 2004-05?
Anyway care to explain what a firewall strategy is?
(with some nice examples…)
cheers,
m
The idea just is to run so as to protect as many seats from falling as you can, Michael.