Peter Beattie has resigned as Premier of Queensland. Crikey is publishing a special email, and I’m in the middle of writing something for it now, so I’ll update this post with a bit of analysis in a few hours. In the meantime, comment and speculate away! I think this move by Beattie has big positive implications for Rudd and some significant negatives for Howard. But more on that later.
Elsewhere: The Poll Bludger, Andrew Leigh, Blogocracy, Woolly Days, Down And Out Of Sà i Gòn and Stoush.
Update: I’ve posted my piece from the special edition of Crikey over the fold. You can read Richard Farmer and Christian Kerr on the Crikey blog.
Beattie Resigns
1. Beattie picks his moment and goes out with consummate style
Mark Bahnisch writes:
All considerations of aspirational nationalism aside, one of the nicer aspects of federalism is the comparative lack of distance between citizens and their state government, and the lack of pretension and pomp Ministers have. At least in Queensland.
By way of illustration, I ran into the now former Premier, Peter Beattie, on William Street a few years back when I was doing a consultancy for the Queensland government and we had a bit of a natter. He was walking back from Parliament to the Executive building and accompanied by only one security guard. It wasn’t that I knew him well, but that he recognised my face (probably from Labor Party functions a decade before when I was a member). Good priests and politicians famously always remember a face, even if the name eludes them, but it took me a little while to realise he’d addressed me as “mate� rather than “Mark�.
On another occasion, he offered some friends of mine a lift back home from a Jello Biafra gig, of all things. The concert was on at the Convention Centre at Southbank and finished around the same time some Labor Party nosh-up ended. My mates and Beattie both lived at Windsor, so he was anxious to save them a cab fare. They were quite shocked that shouting out “Hey Pete, we live near you, can we have a ride?� would produce a positive response! Needless to say, stories like this travel quickly around what is in many ways still a small town.
Though he’s often been derided as a media tart and a shameless populist, Beattie is a superb politician with a genuine common touch. There’s an element of calculation in his “hail fellow, well met� persona, but conversely it’s not a pretence but an accentuation of the personality of the man himself. That big grin is genuine, even if it’s a bit of a knowing smile as well.
Interestingly, and there must be some serendipity along with the pollen in the Brisbane spring air, I’ve crossed paths with Deputy Premier Anna Bligh twice in the last week. On Saturday afternoon, I saw her and her husband shopping in the Broadway shopping centre on the Queen Street Mall. I thought at the time Anna looked remarkably happy and relaxed.
Perhaps she knew something we didn’t until a couple of hours ago.
When Beattie announced to the Labor Party Conference recently that he’d contemplate leaving office before the middle of 2008, he very pointedly contrasted his ability to know when his time was up with John Howard’s inability to know when to let go.
Beattie only held on in last year’s Queensland election through a superb campaign and the implosion of the opposition (in particular the Liberal Party who’d unwisely switched leaders just before Beattie pulled the starting trigger). He knew, and he knows today, that Queenslanders had tired of his switch and bait “someone else broke it, I’m sorry, I’ll fix it� tactics.
For once, the claim that a leader would like to spend more time with his family is true. Heather Beattie has made no secret of her desire for her husband to move on. There’s unlikely to be any move into the federal arena, at least in the near future. A keen student of labour history, Beattie knows the omens from long ago in the past when both T. J. Ryan and “Red Ted� Theodore tried to parlay their dominance of Queensland politics into federal success aren’t happy ones.
Beattie’s decision contains only electoral positives for Labor. Anna Bligh will be a popular Premier who’ll reinvigorate the state government, and Beattie’s departure will short circuit Howard’s opportunistic local council amalgamation moves. All the negatives that Beattie carries after nearly a decade in office that may have stuck to federal Labor are gone in a flash. Though they’re famously not close friends, Kevin Rudd has a lot to thank Peter Beattie for today.
And Beattie, a master of timing, has shone a spotlight on Howard’s lengthy and now shaky leadership just when it’s not wanted. Beattie has picked his moment well, and gone out with some consummate style.
Traffic signal box on the corner of Edward and Adelaide Street, Brisbane. Reproduced under the terms of a creative commons licence from flickr - the photo was taken by steve.t.
And JWH says, quick get the Anna Bligh file. What will he find?
So this neck of the woods is gonna host the PM and the premier.
We’ll get bloody nothing now.
I’m devastated.
No, literally, I’m devastated.
Here’s an old (and possibly dated) analysis of Beattie’s leadership style from Paul Williams from Griffith Uni:
“The following sections argue that Beattie has developed his metapopulism by combining four core elements of traditional populism - ‘Strong’ leadership; Queensland ‘nationalism’; Regionalism-Ruralism; and State development - with three of his own applications, namely: a commitment to make Queensland the ‘Smart State’; a commitment to pluralism and conciliation as method of conflict resolution; and, most critically, the evolution of his ‘Everyman’ image in which Beattie’s self-deprecation and widely promulgated traits of honesty, integrity and fiscal prudence have produced a profile with which a majority of ‘ordinary’ voters can identify.”
As you can tell, it’s from an academic paper.
He’s had a good run and like Bracks is getting out while he’s in front. Younger and smarter than the old dog, Howard.
The last twelve months have caught him out, concerning Aborigines, health and a dreadful weakness as to environmental issues, inclduding land clearance, Coastal development and dealing with outback “developers” who have ruined the Murray-Darling.
Turnbull’s renegeing on a “water auction” for yet more cotton irrigators after the weather bureau announced the the southern states have been left in deep drought by failed rains probably due to climate change, drew a peevish response from an adroitly sidestepped Beatty, likely drawing him into conflict with Rudd. Like Lennon already has, Beatty has been in danger of being compromised into the worst excesses of corrupt, pork-barelling narrow parochialism.
So good he leaves now, while other Australians can still think well of him. Innings over, but he has carried his bat.
Presumably he discussed this with Rudd, who presumably thinks it will help him.
Would this mean Rudd will escape the odium of Beattie’s local Government reforms, and not lose votes he might have lost in Qld? Or were they all National seats anyway?
Off to join his dodgy mates…over at Babcock and Brown…just like the rest of his team who are already there. Guess what company go contracts that didn’t go to tender…Beatties mates at Babcock and Brown lol!
Beattie has kept up the tradition of “infrawhat”..in regards to QLD infrastructure happy to see him go.
Ahem.. well done the Pies. God that was hard to say. Even harder to say I will be on their team bus for the trip to Subi and hope they kick the drug crazed Eagles into the Swan river.
But I digress. I know it’s an obvious point but Pete’s departure does make Howard look like he is araldited into the seat as Keating so famously said. And if you saw his press conference he was going on about how it is important to have a smooth succession plan. Nudge nudge wink wink….
And he goes with the council mergers firmly in his back pocket so Manadarin Kev doesn’t have to wear any of that. Pete’s succesor is Ann Bligh a woman I hear is more than capable and so wll not frighten the notoriously easily spooked Queenslanders.
Also I note the AEC is not playing ball with Howard and it has told a Senate inquiry that a plebiscite on council mergers in Queensland will not be held at same time as Fed Poll.
Obviously the boys and girls at the AEC can read opinion polls too.
This Kevin Rudd has to be the luckiest bloke in Australian politics.
Might not Beattie’s resignation and the vote for Anna Blight as his successor dominate the news cycle for about a week, thus depriving JWH of further desperately needed electoral oxygen. And, of course, the obvious comparisons with Howard made by Alan Kennedy in his post?
Plus, assuming the commentary is mostly positive, the ALP being shown in a good light for the ensuing week.
Or am I being too West Wing?
Well I think that it is sad that he is going. I liked his style. But I’ll wildly speculate that he has discovered that he has committed Queenslanders to spending 1 billion dollars on something that just will not work. Namely “clean coal” and carbon sequestration.
On another thread, Ambigulous asked:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/09/10/it-shouldnt-need-saying/#comment-401511
No, I don’t think so. Beattie and Bligh have had the numbers stitched up for some years, and the putative AWU contenders, Paul Lucas and John Mickel, have accepted that. In addition, Beattie’s timing is excellent as usual. Resigning now puts the focus on Howard and all the talk about whether he’s the problem and whether he should leave, having outstayed his welcome. In that context, the ALP in Qld would be silly to have a contest as it wouldn’t sit too well with the contrast Beattie (and Rudd no doubt) will be making with a PM who never knows when to say “I’m going”.
Anna’s got history, and JWH will be putting the fine tooth comb through it. Interesting reading.
“Not frighten easily”… you’re not kidding. Imagine what it takes to get to the top of such a rancid pile as QLD’s ALP, to take the South Brisbane seat, as in Peel Street?
You think local government reforms is the only target Qld state alp provides for getting at Kev, and that Beattie not being in the seat is gonna stop JWH from deploying his poison darts, cos Anna is a woman or new? Yeh right.
Milton Dick is about to speak on 612. And the Go Betweens are on there right now.
Paul Burns is probably spot on. Beattie banged on at length about spending last night with Therese and Kev. I am sure timing was discussed. Howard needs Queensland but he will be gasping for air up there for the next few weeks. When things go bad they really go bad. You gotta hope Howard hangs on. A exquisite election night beckons for many of us. Surely he is not going to rob us of that.
As I said to someone this morning I thought seeing the Swannies win the flag in 2005 made my life complete but this year I realised I had been wrong.
Now 5 of the state governments have had orderly transitions from one premier to the next. All the more jealous must the Costelloites be.
If only Paul Lennon would resign.
For the conspiracy theorists, he is heading off on a holiday and not to Canberra.
Alan I was a bit taken with Paul’s idea too, but I got sidetracked wondering if the news cycle these days really lasts as long as a week. I have sort of formed the impression that all but the very biggest stories (beaconsfield etc) get old very very quickly of late.
State Labor is at 51% in the most recent Newspoll. Anna will give that a boost - yep, she’ll eat Seeney and Flegg for breakfast.
Beattie is a master of timing, and this move is designed to blow Howard out of the water up here.
And he won’t go to Canberra. The time for that passed several years ago - it could have been managed when he was still popular up here. He’d have been a much better replacement for Crean than Latho and may well have been PM by now. But he’s a keen student of labour history, and knows the omens from T. J. Ryan and Red Ted Theodore aren’t good.
“If governments don’t renew, they die. If parties don’t renew, they die.” Quite appropriate words from him.
I reckon the deputy will be from the Old Guard. Any idea who might step up? On merit, Lucas would be pretty good but he is AWU.
I reckon it’ll be Lucas, Antonio.
Laura,
I think it might last a week because there are two stories Beatties resignation and Bligh’s succession. Plus there’ll probably be a bit of stuff about what it means for the Federal election.
Whichever way it goes, it won’t do Howard much or any good.
Does anyone know how Anna Bligh won preselection for South Brisbane slightly more than a decade ago?
Also it means Beattie’s booked many of the features in the weekend papers. To get together interviews, etc. It will take a week to arrange. Nice timing indeed.
sacha: would you believe easily?
Put it this way: Anna’s maiden speech 7 sept ‘95, puts on record “the significant influence that my predecessor in this House, Ms Anne Warner, had on my political development”.
Does that answer your question? You might be thinking of the preselection kerfuffle that went on in Sth Brisbane in 1986:
“Fouras was first elected to the Queensland Parliament in 1977 as member for South Brisbane. He lost pre-selection for the 1986 election to Anne Warner after both had been thrown into fighting the same seat by a redistribution. (The stacking of branches in this pre-selection was pursued by the Shepherdson Inquiry and eventually led to the resignation of Mike Kaiser in 2001 after he admitted to having falsely enrolled in the electorate.) ”
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2006/guide/departingmps.htm
Bligh & Lucas = UQ Union old times!
Interesting.
Yep! Interesting to see if Andrew MacNamara gets a gig in the Ministry. He was assistant Treasurer of the Union when I was Treasurer (an office Paul Lucas occupied some years before)…
Sad to see him go, but it looks like it was time, as an observation from down here in NSW, he looked a much better Premier than we’ve had during his time on the job. I liked him and I like him even more for knowing when to go.
Well, Anna Bligh’s not even elected as the new Premier and the smear merchants are out in force already on this thread. If you all have anything you’d like to actually say, rather than imply, then go for it.
I’m confident Anna will easily brush off anything that people might think is “dirt” on her. Some of the AWU boys were trying to throw some of it around a few years back when she first became Deputy Premier, and had to scurry off in embarrassment.
Update: I’ve posted my piece from the special edition of Crikey over the fold of the original post. You can read Richard Farmer and Christian Kerr on the Crikey blog.
Are robust pre-selection battles a crime? It is politics and the NSW Libs are engaged in it at moment. Branch stacking heaven forfend.
Say it isn’t so Seriously though Bligh seems pretty good she has good form as a minister and she has children so super smearer Bill Heffernan won’t be able to get off any deliberately barren lines off.
Well, there was no robust pre-selection battle in Bligh’s case anyway. Warner’s pre-selection, as noted, was in 87 and was an AWU/SL gang up on the Old Guard. Ancient history which returned with a vengeance in 01 but there was no suggestion that she had any involvement whatsoever.
Anyway, by the by, I’ve added a photo from flickr (courtesy of a CC licence) to the post.
My news cycle theory doesn’t look too good from down south. On 5 p.m Channel 10 News, Beattie’s resignation was the opening item, then JWH’s bad polls, snippets of an incredible ABC radio interview with JWH ‘I got ideas, I got ideas I just can’t tell you on a programme like this.’ So you may be right, Laura, or is the news coverage more intense up there. I presume it is.
I have never seen anyone who could work a room as well as Beattie. He was a ‘natural’ unlike Goss.
Bligh will be good; but there will be some resentment.
Rumours of a reshuffle with Education Minister Welford supposedly under pressure to retire to the backbench. Seems unlikely to me. Welford followed Bligh to Education and seems to have followed the directions she set.
wpd, I first met Goss (in the Strangers Bar at Parliament House) in 1990. I was really surprised that he seemed so aloof. Unlike Rudd, he didn’t seem to see the necessity to overcome shyness and reserve.
To read Anna Bligh’s first speech, click on the name ‘Bligh’ and then ‘inaugral Speech’ here.
Mark, you are right. Rudd, so I am told, has improved considerably. Certainly there was scope for dramatic improvement.
At the end Goss tried hard to improve his interpersonals. Craig Emmerson was seconded to squire him round and introduce him to all. He even attended Christmas parties.
Those who worked closely with Goss found him quite demanding and quite frankly ‘a bit of a bully’.
The rise of Anna will also have implications for the Public Service. How long will it before Ken Smith gets the top job? Less than a week I’d guess.
‘Lefties’ in the top jobs. Oh Dear.
Could someone provide a precis for us non Queenslanders on the role of the AWU in Qld ALP politics. It seems to be pernicious but its hard to work out just what the problem is.
Declining, GregM.
Sorry I don’t have time to write more, but Beattie’s timing has just increased the number of writing deadlines for me!
So is that a bad thing then?
A good thing in my view.
Actually, it’s more complex than I’ve made it seem. There’s actually been a generational shift within the AWU, as Beattie has (deliberately) marginalised Ludwig and the industrial dinosaurs and promoted a younger and dare I say fresher parliamentary leadership for the faction - exemplified by Transport Minister Paul Lucas. If I started explaining why Big Bill Ludwig has been a problem for state Labor for a long time, we’d be here all night. But no doubt his occasional malign interventions in federal Labor affairs give you the gist.
Alister says: “Well, Anna Bligh’s not even elected as the new Premier and the smear merchants are out in force already on this thread.”
Noticed that myself.
Sacha and Danny doing the old stand-up Liberal 2-step. Wonder which of them is the stright man and which the comedian.
“I say, I say, I say did you hear the one about Anna Bligh……?”
At least she’ll be leading a party with enough elected representatives to fill something a bit larger than a Combi van.
“Beattie’s decision contains only electoral positives for Labor.” Not if it provokes Howard to resign. Howard cannot win. Costello might be able to pull things back.
Evan:
Don’t project partisanship. Or conspiracy.
Fact of the matter is, Sacha’s ( whom I have no clue of from adam) post was the last one at the time I clicked on the LP browser tab. He asked a question, and I happened to have relevant information. Go back and read it, you’ll see I in fact dispelled any misapprehensions that Sacha might have had about Anna’s preselection being clouded by shenanigans.
I figured his question was on the basis that, yes she has the South Brisbane seat, and yes the south brisbane seat has had a pre-selection shenanigans cloud over it. So I offered chapter and verse of the facts, or at least a direct quote, and linked quote form the ABC, which is a reasonable source.
Anna is my member, as a constituent I’ve met in her office with her, with secretary taking notes. We’d bump into each other of the stairwell at the school that our kids went to. She’s tapped me on the shoulder at the tuckshop to say thanks for a tip I gave her about some less than best practice that was happening in her portfolio’s department. I’ve seen her operate at the local level, how she deals with public community concern meetings. I’ve looked at booth results after the last election. My point is: I take my citizenship seriously.
Is it a smear for instance when I point out her style, and regard for democratic parliamentary process by quoting from hansard:
“Just so that they never know who is there and who makes these dastardly decisions, at the end of every Labor Cabinet meeting .. the Premier eats the attendance register… You can take us to the International Court of Justice and the attendance register will remain in the bowels of former Labor Premiers”
What’s Al Gores movie’s title?
Have I just had my first blog flame experience?
No, I think just a misinterpretation, Danny. I’m sure it can all be sorted!
Nick, I think one thing that’s clear from today is that Howard isn’t going anywhere. He’s even saying he talked it over with his family last night and has their support to stay. Downer won’t tap him on the shoulder, and if he did, it’d make no difference. Costello would have to blast him out, and who believes he would? Even if he did, it would further cruel their chances - “disunity is death in politics” as someone said.
Danny, you never told us what Milton Dick had to say. Is he running the by-election, running in it or what?
A question for the Queensland historians: who was the last Premier to go voluntarily? They’ve all either been turfed by the voters, or their party, or died in office, for at least 60 years, I would reckon.
Good question.
The answer is Country Party Premier Frank Nicklin in 67.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Nicklin
Milton dick said blah blah blah,can’t pre-empt caucus, focus was on is anna bligh gonna be premier. But it wasn’t a dead loss having the radio on, it prompted me to put on some go betweens vinyl.
Thanks mark, I regard it as sorted. Just a bit of a shock being mistaken for a liberal troll. I guess the default assumption of partisanship is symptomatic of the appalling state of the contemporary politik.
One exquisite artifact of Pete’s timing is: the guy who stood against him last time, and took 5%, was yesterday due for confirmation or otherwise as the lib federal candidate for Griffith against Kev. If he’s doing that, they’ll have to find someone else to go to the by-election, have wasted their probable best candidate for it. Doh.
I know Samuel Griffiths retired.
Mark,
You may well be right, but I think you might be making the pundit’s mistake which is overestimating your ability to know.
1. If Howard was intending to go then he would not be telling us would he. And he wouldn’t be being coy - he’d be denying he was going and saying things like he’s saying.
2. In the perhaps more likely event that his current intention is not to go, he can turn on a dime and say ‘I always said I’d stay as long as my party wanted and for the good of the party . . . etc.
I can’t really see how he can hang around down 15% in the polls.
Be more interesting to see who the Greens put up, Danny, I reckon. That’s where the majority of the erosion in Beattie’s vote has come from in recent elections.
Well, Nick, it’s unknowable except by Howard and maybe, as you say, his thinking is fluid. But I’d certainly back my opinion with a bet.
Ahern retired two months before an election but under pressure I believe.
No, steve, he lost in a spill when Cooper challenged him.
That is the funniest thing I have heard for weeks. He has cost the Libs dearly with the resources wasted in trying to fend off Chris Bombolas and now he is going to run a bad second to Rudd. For one of the shining lights he has certainly been out foxed at every turn. Pure Gold!
Mark: this may sound like an odd question, but how does one pingback Larvatus Prodeo - to be exact, this blog post? I’ve forgotten how.
Just type in the post url and add /trackback/ at the end, I think!
Think it is time to give it away for the night after finding this.
The Queensland Liberal Party candidate for Griffith is not on their site as yet.
http://tphcm.blogspot.com/2007/09/beatties-gone.html/trackback/
Whoops. Bad link. I think that’s supposed to go:
Trackback: http://tphcm.blogspot.com/2007/09/beatties-gone.html
Thanks, Mark.
No probs - I’ll add a link to the post.
Nicholas Gruen! And I thought you were one of the smarties. Howard might not be able to win - might not - but Costello couldn’t win in a thousand years. Unctuous arrogant disdainful snob that he is, he’s completely transparent to voters. And hence completely unelectable.
Wbb,
And I thought you were one of the smarties too! I don’t think Costello would prosper as PM for any length of time, and I’m not saying he’d win if elected now, but I think it’s the only thing that gives the Libs a chance. Honeymoon effects and all that. I think Howard is a dead duck.
Mark,
Happy to bet you $10 that Howard won’t lead the Libs to the next election. (though given the state of the opinionosphere, I’m really offering the bet to make my - contrarian - point. I guess given everyone else’s point of view, I should be holding out for 2:1 odds or better, but there you go.) An easy $10 for you.
You have a bet!
(Except we should specify that he be alive at the election - we’re betting on him being deposed or resigning, not dying which is a remote possibility).
FWIW, I think Costello would be a disaster for two reasons:
(1) He’s very undisciplined and has been quite a scrappy campaigner prone to scoring own goals. The shorter the incumbency, the worse that he’s likely to be.
(2) Whether or not he makes any policy or rhetorical changes, it can all be painted as insincere desparation at this stage of the game. And looks like panic.
And did Debnam get a honeymoon? Baillieu… maybe. Flegg is the best example as it was a switch just before the election - and the Libs lost about 10 points of their vote in about a week or less. Though switching in government is different from switching in opposition - it’s more likely to be messy.
There may be some kinda attitudinal generational thing going on here too. Both Bracksy and Beats started firming up their vocations in the early seventies, married women with similar attitudes shaped by the same times, scored the biggest job they could seriously aspire to in politics in their early 40s, had a very good innings and now see their early (and financial secure, thanks to parly super) fifties as a chance to be worldly and v. well connected empty nesters with the opportunity to do and see stuff they never could have while climbing the greasy pole.
Very similar patterns are emerging among financially secure high achievers of similar vintage across a range of professions at the wealthiest end of first world countries.
Sometimes a career in politics is just a career.
Where’d your gravvy go, Nabs?
Out for a crap in the neighbour’s flowerbed.
OK he’s back now but doing that disgusting balls and arse licking thing now. “On the phone” as I like to call it.
All I can think about is “What’s that strange bloke who’s been protesting all year outside 80 George Street with a half-dozen incomprehensible signs going to do now?”
Thanks Mark for your reply at 3.50 pm on 10th. You’re a scholar and a gentleman. We Vics hear little of the intricate background of Qld politics.
cheerio
Pleasure, Ambigulous!
According to today’s news reports, the Liberal party is still to preselect a candidate for Banks, technically a marginal Labor seat (margin ~3%). Astonishing.
I asked about Anna Bligh’s preselection in case anyone here had any additional information about it - all I know about it is that I was at an ALP branch meeting in West End when it became known that Anne Warner had decided to retire, and someone said that it had been decided that Anna Bligh would be the candidate. Whether “it had been decided” meant that a deal had been done or that it was merely someone’s good idea, I don’t know.
I remember reading about the preselection for Sth Brisbane after Kurilpa (held by Anne Warner) and Sth Brisbane (held by Jim Fouras) were basically amalgamated in the redistribution before the ‘86 state election (Brisbane Central went across the river to take a portion of Sth Brisbane). Jim Fouras popped up as the member for Ashgrove in the ‘89 election (Ashgrove had been variously held by the Liberals and the ALP in the previous few elections).
I wonder who the new member for Brisbane Central will be? Anyone take a guess?
Grace Grace.
For non-Quincelanders, Grace Grace (yep, that’s her real name) is our top “union boss”.
Btw, Sacha, there’s no great mystery about Bligh’s preselection. She was anointed by Warner. That’s about all that needs to be said.
Debnam became leader a long time before the 2007 election (Sep 2005) - he isn’t an example of someone installed just before an election. He had sufficient time to build support for himself and his party, but failed. In fact, the NSW Coalition looked as if they might have won the election during November/December 2006, but then Debnam make a discredited allegation against a NSW Minister. Very poor judgement on Debnam’s behalf. The coalition’s support declined from then (from memory).
okey-dokey about the preselection - I just didn’t know.