A weekly open thread where, at the mercy of your election-year mania, you may discuss various breaking politicking news that is not on topic for other current threads.
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Hasnâ??t this happened once already – how close is Mr Rein to this company?
Didnâ??t Ingeus pull the same manoeuvre in Australia ?
From the SMH -â??The general secretary of the Public and Community Services Union, Mark Serwotka, was reported as saying the Government had â??handed a large chunk of work to a firm which is failing and mired in controversy in Australiaâ??.
Yesterday a spokeswoman for Ingeus denied it had won the contracts by bypassing British regulations designed to protect staff when operations are transferred to a new employer.
She said the regulations did not apply because it was a new program, but existing employees would be offered interviews.â??
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudds-wife-pulls-a-quid-in-uk/2007/09/25/1190486311891.html
Although I dislike privatising social programs, that’s not going to swing my vote to the Libs (assuming I was one of those Lib-Lab swinging voters) because that is exactly what they want to do too. So I see that as a negative but neutral in voting terms.
I’m not thinking about this matter as one that sways votes but rather wondering if it may be a predictor of Mr Rudd’s action when in power.
Here’s an interesting one: I just played with Antony Green’s excellent swing calculator http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
If you go the the state by state setting, and set all the states which the coaltion won in 2004 to a very modest 50-50 2PP (in factoring in modest swings to the ALP), it shows just how tough this election will be for Team Rodent.
Once NSW, VIC, SA, QLD and WA are set to a dead level outcome, you only have to add the two lib held TAS seats to the ALP column and there’s a hung parliament.
British unions have denied that they have any concerns about Therese Rein’s company. Its an item on Google news. I’m too computer illiterate to give you all the link to it.
This looks like another smear from the Howard dirt unit to me. Hopefully, the electorate will see it for what it is.
On another election topic. When is somebody going to point out that the dreadful epidemic of horse flu thast is destroying our equine industry is a result of Howard’s cuts to AQIS? Come on you Greens, ALP and Democrat people out there. Get your parties to do some damage to Howard on this!
This is not exactly on the topic of the election. Apologies if I should post this elsewhere.
Can anyone tell me why Hugh Mackay has suddenly come to the attention of the conservative commentators? Has he been a target before or is this attention in response to something recently published? (Blair, Bolt and Albrechtson all mentioned him recently – although I’m guessing she followed their lead)
Looks like shoot the messenger stuff to me – I thought he just wrote about what his focus groups tell him.
Lefty E:
[If you go the the state by state setting, and set all the states which the coaltion won in 2004 to a very modest 50-50 2PP (in factoring in modest swings to the ALP), it shows just how tough this election will be for Team Rodent.]
Except that the ‘modest 50-50′ you are talking about still represents a 7.1% swing in Qld, 5.4% swing in WA and 4.4% swing in SA. To me those are *not* modest swings. I guess if Latham was really a 2% drag as people suggest then the swings do move a bit closer to reasonable. Still the swing required to take a number of seats in Qld is quite large. A 6% swing to pick up three just seats seems like quite a big ask for the ALP, which would not take much to derail.
They’re modest given current poll projections in every state (bar WA), Chris!
Chris, yes, but the two Newspoll aggregates this year show swings of 9% plus in Queensland:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/23/crimes-against-psephology-christopher-pearson-%e2%80%93you%e2%80%99re-nicked/
The GG on line leads today with
but closer examination reveals that they are swinging to the state coalition rather than the H-team.
Aha! well that ought to reassure the federal coalition that they can win in the West as we in the West obviously want wall to wall lib-nats or state lib-nats and federal labour or …or…..
The point is that AT LEAST 50-50 is achievable on current poll results. In fact, to bring it back to 50-50 would represent a MAJOR turnaround in the Coalition’s fortunes, especially given that some 80% of the electorate are indicating that they’ve already made up their minds and are unlikely to change.
Yes, yes. I understand 50-50 is a walk in the park based on current polls, but I promised myself to be as pessimistic as possible this time. As consistent as the polls are I still find it close to impossible to believe swings anything near that on election night.
Rudd’s now well and truly playing the pork-barrel game in Tasmania – looks like his new spending promises include huge spending in Bass and Braddon while largely ignoring the safe ALP seats in the south.
At the same time, apparently he’s giving the green light to the Fed takeover of the Mersey, but only on condition that the Tasmanian State government divert the savings exclusively to the Liberal marginals. There’s an interesting dynamic developing between the Federal ALP opposition and the Tasmanian ALP government here. Denunciation of this blatant interference in State budgeting and grave threat to democracy in 5, 4, 3…
BBB
Duly loudly denounced!
(You can usually rely on me for a loud denunciation of Rudd…)
Indeed: Id say the coalition haven’t got a hope of hell of a result as good as 50-50 anywhere but WA.
Original point was merely that 16 seats isnt really that hard an ask on current poll projections, or considerably lower for that matter.
As for your point BBB, I agree. Rudd worries about pork working, Rudd porks back. It doesnt impress me, though to be fair he does talk about a coordinated federal health policy being the priority.
And check out Waleed Aly today – he says a lot of the things Ive been thinking lately. http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-real-sympathy-vote/2007/09/25/1190486307018.html
ALPs only mistake over the last few weeks has been memeing some of the Coalition negative campaigning eg over the leadership squabbles (and, IMHO, those rubbish home phone spam exercises).
The more the ALP stays above the gutter trawling of their opponents, the stronger their lead, id wager.
I still don’t think the ALP can win enough seats. The 2PP is overstated for the ALP because of the number of heavily ALP seats.
The only thing that would change my mind is if the polling showed a continued widening of the gap between Coalition and ALP.
The continued “Howard Lite” strategy of KRuddie will lead to a softening through swing aback to the Govt or swing away to the Greens. The ALP is now matching the Coalition Pork barrelling, such as the Mersey Hospital Deal, Tasy forests etc.
There is plenty of time for the Govt to create enough support by Mid-Nov to stop the ALP winning more than 15 seats.
Razor, check out how the Coalition is travelling in its own “safe” seats:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/23/crimes-against-psephology-christopher-pearson-%e2%80%93you%e2%80%99re-nicked/
11.6% 2PP swing against them.
There are far more than 16 seats in contention. The Coalition has 40 targetted for the sorts of resources that normally only go to marginals.
In theory, a party can win an election with just a tick over 25% of the 2PP vote, by winning 50% + 1 vote in 50% + seats, and no votes elsewhere.
Of course, nothing like this ever will happen. But a party can win an election, and some have, with a 2PP vote as low as 48.5%.
But the Coalition 2PP is at 45%, and has been there since Rudd became leader of the ALP, 10 months ago.
This is far too little for them to win, on even the most optimistic projections of where those votes might be disitributed, in terms of safe and marginal seats. And what’s more, the polls are saying that the swing to Labor is in even greater in the marginals than in the safe seats. And what’s more what’s more, coalition seats that were once considered safe, or ultra safe, (like Grey in South Australia) are now considered to be in grave danger.
On a uniform swing, Labor stands to win about 40 seats on current polling. The swing won’t be uniform, of course; they never are. But a non-uniform swing may actually be to Labor’s advantage. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the swing is being locked up in seats that Labor already has.
Coalition supporters who are hanging their hats on 1998 revisted are kidding themselves. Yes, the coalition won with a minority (just) of the 2PP vote. But Labor’s vote in that election was artificially boosted by the once in a life time event of One Nation preferences in safe coalition seats. A very large number of very large conservative voters ended up voting for Labor in 2PP terms. There was no real sense in which the majority of voters supported Labor in that election.
This time round, it is completely different.
Yep – Ive looked closely at the “16 seats is a lot” thesis and find it largely free of any supporting evidence.
It might be ‘a lot’ if there was a 3.5% swing on.
But its bugger all when there’s an 8.5+% swing in the air.
Mark – this link is probably a better one to use for that:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/21/newspolls-for-all/
It has the complete breakdowns.
Exactly 5 out of the last 15 elections, including the previous two changes of government have had swings of this size.
So it’s less common than more, but hardly unprecedented.
The Qld Nats have a billboard campaign underway.
After all this money spent on farmers I just had a look at the current Nationals representation in the House. There are 11 of them, out of 150. With current polling in mind, and particular issues affecting regioal Australia, we could be seeing the final days of this party at the federal level.
Two MPs (John Anderson and Ian Causley) are retiring. Anderson’s seat has been abolished.
Peter McGauran is in a position with horse flu where he’ll get no credit for being competent but plenty of stick for slipping up – so by slipping up he’s “making a difference”. The ALP candidate is a deputy mayor.
Three Nat-held seats – Wide Bay (Warren Truss), Lyne (Mark Vaile) and Cowper (Luke Hartsuyker) have some of the lowest per-capital incomes in the country. The sort of campaign that won Richmond for Labor in 2004 should work in all these seats and Page as well.
That’s five down for sure. They won’t win Flynn, nor take any seat from Labor or an independent.
That said, John Cobb and Kay Hull should survive as solid local members without serious ALP opposition. Paul Neville and Bruce Scott may well survive, despite Neville having been screwed by Helen Coonan on every commitment she ever gave over radio content and broadband for the bush. John Forrest comes from the last part of Australia where they weigh rather than count the conservative vote, but a spirited campaign by a plucky Labor candidate may bring on an upset.
That leaves DeAnne Kelly, and who knows what crazy stunt she might pull off? A sizeable number of constituents who are CEC/Hanson/gun-nut voters could counteract, or exascerbate, any Labor swing.
The most generous forecast for the Nats is that they’ll win six seats. A party needs to have five seats to call themselves a party. In the Senate they have two Senators up for election – Boswell (who’s in the Coalition’s third spot, the death seat – bye bye Ron), a NSW Senate candidate who’s second on a joint ticket and safe – as well as Barnaby, who’s not up for election this time.
Whenever the Nats come out with a massive aid package for farmers I’m always amazed at what they had to do to pull off such a con. Tell ‘em to fuck off and what could possibly happen?
Mark, as the infamous Peter Phelps points out here, in 1998 the Coalition copped big swings in its safe seats and still won.
Well, yes, in an historical sense a big swing is on.
But the point is the ALP winning 16 seats is actually possible with half the swing they are currently recording in the polls.
Viz, A 4.2% 2PP swing will get them a majority (if uniform etc).
So, Howard needs to claw back another 4+% 2PP to make it interesting.
Just putting it in perspective
I wonder if I’ll become as contemptuous of Rudd as I am of Howard.
Probably Katz. Let us hope we have the opportunity for this to be so!
Further evidence that the Liberals are in trouble in their safe seats – Alexander Downer has agreed to electioneer in Ryan on October 11th. Their margin here is well over 10%, but the sitting member is widely recognised as a Santoro-faction, branch-stacking, fruitcake and the internal polling is showing a 12%+ swing.
If you want to heckle Downer, or see which local knobs are still supporting Johnson, be at the Botanic Gardens cafe before 7.00am.
Shock prediction: The Liberal and Labor parties will get the most votes cast for them overall, causing one of them to be elected…
That’s interesting about Johnson.
Thanks for the link, Possum.
Andrew, I don’t think the swings were that big and in any case they’re complemented this time by big swings in the marginals.
I can understand (while bemoaning it) that the media narrative doesn’t take as its starting point the reality of what’s happening now, but surely people in the blogosphere can do better.
“The ALP is now matching the Coalition Pork barrelling, such as the Mersey Hospital Deal”
Don’t know they have much choice re Mersey Hospital given that Abbott yesterday signed an agreement with the Tas Govt.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Abbott-signs-Mersey-hospital-agreement/2007/09/24/1190486191695.html
Pollytickedoff, the charge of pork barreling really arises from Rudd’s spending commitments and his insistence on where Tasmanian government savings from the Cth takeover must go post-election. In both cases, Rudd is blatantly favouring the Liberal marginals to the detriment of Hobart, etc. where the ALP is already in a strong position. And while Rudd has said he will honour the agreement between the Cth and the Tasmanian government, he has also said: “What I am doing today is absolutely clarifying our bottom-line position on this: that is, our stipulation that the funds [read: savings] be allocated to the north and northwest [read: Bass and Braddon] – every dollar and every cent.”, which apparently is not what the agreement actually requires and in any case not necessarily the best use of the money.
Cheers
BBB
BBB,
not disagreeing with you, just pointing out I’m not sure he had much choice re Mersey Hospital.
Whoops, sorry. Fair point, p.
BBB
If it’s bad policy, wouldn’t he reverse it?
Two bob on john and four on kev may break even and hopping plus extentions happy.
Yep this is dog whistle code talk as you all Know.
Oh. So the secret is revealed. BBB lives in Tasmania!
Duke – on Hugh MacKay @ 10.41am
Your guess is as good as mine, but I think young Hugh has gone WAY beyond ‘just reporting what his focus groups say’. He’s been sermonising, much in the style of Public Intellectual Robert Manne, or Janet Albrechtsen (Professor Emeticus of the Common Law); or Robert Bolt, Scourge of the Bench.
As such, one may take Hugh’s pronouncements with a little salt. And why shouldn’t he be criticised?
Oh, BTW, one of the stock reactions by Australkian journalists to any criticism of their work is “aren’t you just shooting the messenger?” To which one might say, “not really, I’m just criticising your performance, and here are the specifics: …”
LP and others are doing a fine job of dissecting the pontificating pundits, especially in their many foolishnesses on polling results.
Ha! I wish CK (seriously).
BBB
Geez, a provincial within a province. Bushwhacked.
Not biting this time, jinmaro. Appreciate the invitation though. Have a great night.
BBB
Please note the comments policy, and please also note that willingness to abide by it is a condition of participation here:
Revised election date possibilities (assuming 29 week days for campaign):
* called 2 Oct for 10 Nov
* called 9 Oct for 17 Nov
* called 16 Oct for 24 Nov
* called 23 Oct for 1 Dec
* called 30 Oct for 8 Dec
Rattus Nonveritas, you said
Hey, that’s a bit rough …. seeing that he is one of the brightest younger Queensland Liberals; he simply espoused traditional Queensland Liberals’ methods of getting elected but with innovative Millenial twists.
Geez, if he gets the chop then the Liberals in Queensland can be moved from “Endangered Species” to “Extinct”.
Everyone:
Watch out for “swiftboating”. It worked a treat in the United States to spread lies, slander and exaggerations about a genuine war veteran so as to get George “Air-Guard-AWOL” Bush re-elected.
There are already two ex-military candidates and there are likely to be several more [DEFINITELY not me though!] so there’s a very high liklihood that well-organized gangs of ex-military brown-nosers, acting on the orders of nebulous political manipulators, will do the same sort of thing to ex-military candidates in an Australian election. Anyone who questioned the stupidity of the way we stumbled into the Iraq mess will be targets of “swiftboaters” too. Don’t be too shy and polite about tackling any “swiftboaters’ who raise their ugly heads; questioning their own loyalty to Australia is as good a place to start as any.
However, don’t confuse passionately-held political viewpoints with vicious, deceitful “swiftboating”; they are as unalike as chalk and cheese. Ex-military citizens are just as entitled to hold strong political opinions as anyone else and they are entitled to be critical and scornful of an opposing party too; that’s what democracy is all about and it is certainly not “swiftboating”
Isn’t Ryan’s Johnson famous for getting a significant ethnic chinese vote on board, that being his heritage?
Kev’s wowing of the PRC delegation at APEC with his putonghua, (which may very well be superior to Johnson’s), and his general Mr China-ness, might impress that constituency, especially if they perceive a chance that Kev’s might be the winning side, and they’d much prefer their local member being in the court.
But by gollly gosh, 2004′s 40-60 2pp gap is a bit on the heroic side. Daniels will have to campaign well, but it looks like he’s an academic and do-gooder.
Johnson on the other hand is an operator. While everyone’s gong yada yada yada, MJo books City Hall and Sofitel for a weekend for an Australia-China Business Forum ( “an initiative of the member for ryan”) conference, (best part of a grand a look in, payable to a Macquarie bank acct in the forums name, forum address a PO box in Indooripilly), and couldn’t you smell the money in the room. ( Psst, Wanna buy an island? )
I asked him if he thought Kev would turn up, he had a good laugh at that. Nice suit too, I think they were working cuffs.
I should point out that I used to work with Ross and taught a course with him at QUT. But why ever, Danny, would you think that being “an academic and do-gooder” would be a disadvantage in Ryan?
It includes St Lucia, Toowong, Indooroopilly! If there’s any Brisbane seat where you’d find “Doctor’s wives” aka small l Liberal voters, it’s Ryan.
I’d be surprised if Johnson loses the seat, but I’d also be surprised if Labor doesn’t run him a very close race.
They also have the 2001 by-election precedent to give them heart.
mark: I must admit, the “academic and do-gooder” tag was just a touch rhetorical, meant to highlight just how much an “operator” the encumbent is, and that while this election looks good for labor “on the papers”, it’s “labor’s to lose” with ordinary-to-appalling campaigning.
I think PJK’s right that Kev’s Courtiers are “no-value people”, they don’t know how to win an election by taking on the liberal party.
Leaking so-called internal polling data, (which has probably been dreamt up over the morning espresso) to get some strategic signal into the echo chamber is ok in the pre-campaign phase. Credit where credit’s due, they’ve worked with the commentariat’s poll habit pretty well and have managed to not sabotage the Kev04-06(on7) factor too much, so it does look like “the swing is on” ( He’s carried them through some pretty dead-eye foot shots but, think anzac day story, I won’t litanise here)
But I don’t reckon they’ve got a clue how to turn sort-of-OK candidates into winners. If Colonel Kelly gets up, it will be down to Dr. Phelps’ own goal, no thanks to Sussex street. I’ll bet they’re reducing Mrs Cornes to tears as we speak. The idiot’s have had Maxine doing phone spam in boothby cos “Howard did it in 04″.
If they’d flown Max (and hell why not, even Therese) over for Nicole to take around a few shopping malls, maybe she wouldn’t be the poison to the Boothby Sewing Circle the polls say she is. Meanwhile Kev was actually in Adelaide at the time but the press were allowed to run the line that he “steered clear of her”, damaging both Cornes and Kev brands. Doh.
Maybe it’s a cunning plan so they can say for the 011 re-run “we told you to stick with hacks as candidates”.
Bringing it back to point of post: by extension from that example, I have zip confidence that they can do the seat-by-seat hard struggle campaign that will be necessary in the marginals, IMVHO. Look at the pathetic lack of mileage they’ve got out of the PET scanner scandal. The Greens’ Milne makes a better fist of it.
They should have be working with daniels so he had something raedy to say when Kev made his tasmanian announcement. The Wesley (private) hospital, in his electorate, had the only PET in Qld during the howard years, because Howards penny pinching bureacrats, against medical advice, refused to allow them to be billed on Medicare by other hospitals. In some electorates they lay unused.
Meanwhile Johnson is gung-ho about privatising medibank ASAP, and bangs on about Ryan constitunets believing “Socialism is Dead.” How hard is it to show “Howard’s thatcherism is Deadly”? Just look at how many people got sub-optimal cancer treatment during abbott and costello and howard decade because their medicare accountants said no to PET billing. Abbott promised Westmead one in 2004 when ross cameron was in trouble in parramatta. Now he’s promising marginal geelong one. Even abbott hangs his head in shame, he got rolled by head office.
But can you really imagine daniels debating johnson? For a start Johnson would stack the room with hecklers, and Ross would crack is my bet.
Clearly from the Cornes debacle, there isn’t a crack coaching/briefing squad going around supporting the marginals’ campaigns.
No, those skills are deployed back in Manuka and Surrey Hills, lobbying and counter lobbying for which office and which soft furnishings for which soon-to-be front bencher, and their staffers. That’s labor, with their eye on the main prize.
The election after this one.
TPS has an interesting take on some celebrity candidates here.
I don’t know if it’s been mentioned anywhere else but I was deeply offended by Tony Abbott’s comments today just days after that poor woman had a miscarriage by trying to play politics. He basically said if you want this kind of stuff to keep happening at hospitals then vote Labor.
Tony Abbott you are a complete scumbag.
Howard won’t rebuke Abbot.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22492869-5005361,00.html
Frank, he doesn’t have to; the voters are about to rebuke the pair of them.
Jeez, and here I was thinking you were the Federal Minister for Health, Tones. Didnt this happen on your watch?
Only two more months of these worthless no-talent shitstains.
Hey T-man, read my lips: you’re going to LOSE, muthaf*cka.
PS I’z be DNAing all ur kidz if you no wot I means LOL!!1!
Let’s not forget Jolly Joe:
Federal Workplace Relations Minister and North Sydney MP Joe Hockey also made a link between Ms Horska’s treatment and Labor governments.
“Talkback radio was saying the Federal Government has got to step in and fix the (NSW) hospital system,” Mr Hockey told the Queensland Media Club.
“I thought to myself, why are we being blamed for state Labor, which people just re-elected? Why are we being blamed for their problems?”
Now Joe might not be be the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree, but even form him it’s a bit disingenous. The formula’s pretty simple really:
As the world’s most gutless treasurer delights in pointing out, State governments’ expenditures are greater than their incomings ( ie they run deficits), the Feds incomings are on the other hand massively greater than their spending (they’ve run surpluses for a decade, and can regularly buy votes with tax rebates etc), so who is in the more plausible, reponsible, and ethical position to finance extra services? But they need sticks to beat laborite state governments with, and that’s all they care about.
As I pointed out above post, look at what they have done, or haven’t done, with making PET scanners available: Abbott tried to buy paramatta for ross cameron in 2004 with one, and is trying to buy Corangamite for Stewart McArthur this time. Newcastle’s Mater Hospital bought one with charitable and community funds, but abbott has refused to licence it for medicare rebates, he’s saving that to help bob baldwin in patterson.
It’s the worst example of craven marginal seat pork barrelling I can think of, putting 1000′s of cancer patients’ outcomes at risk. But slow painful suffering, often by older folks, doesn’t have the MSM-interest pulling power of blood on the waiting room floor does it?
Has anyone else seen the new government workplace ads spruiking AWAs? I wasn’t really paying attention, so I could be getting this wrong, but the core message seemed to be that if your son gets put on an AWA, your wife is more likely to leave you. I’m not joking.
BBB
Now the Government Gazette assures us that Howard thinks Rupert is God.
BingoBangoBongo:
Hhmm. Should we call that Unintentional Self-Sabotage?
Just what the Tories have served up for eleven years straight as good government. No wonder panic has set in. They still have found no reason for not call an election immediately and so the gaffes will just continue until the election is called. After the election is called we can expect more of the same more often due to the heat and pressure of the campaign.
Another example of lurching, this time between Mr Howard and Mr Downer:
…two different statements quoted by â??The Ageâ?? online, Thursday 27th Sept:
1. â?¦ Alexander Downer said Australia would not follow the US move in imposing economic sanctions [on Burma/Myanmar] because they â??would have absolutely no impactâ??.
2. â?¦ John Howard has announced targeted Australian financial sanctions against members of Burmaâ??s military regimeâ?¦. â??Our objective remains to maximise the pressure on the regime while avoiding harm to the Burmese peopleâ??.
Jeepers, I thought Mr Downer was the Foreign Minister, and after all he’s over there in New York at the UN with access to Australian UN doplomats and the chance to meet all the important guys & gals. You’d think he wouldn’t need adult supervision.
Unlike Kevin in NY
who’s going to have 6 minders every time from here on
dIplomats
Just a small point about the motives for leaking internal party polling by both the ALP and the Libs.
That is, one of the main conclusions of the infamous Crosby-Textor Oztrack 33 analysis of June is that perceptions of a likely conservative loss this year are starting to feed back into the actual polling results, ie a “band-wagon effect” is emerging. If this is the case, it would explain why the two main party back-rooms are feeding boosterish poll results to the media, whilst the leaders simultaneously scramble for the high ground of humbleness and underdog status.
In other words, the ALP hopes to feed the band-wagon effect, whilst the tories want create the impression that the election is still a contest.
It also explains the unbelievably hopeful ‘analysis’ of Dennis Shanahan and others at the Pravda editorial room.
PS and who is this Malcolm Colless bloke, and does Pravda really believe it needs yet another right-wing editorial contributor to broaden its appeal and journalistic gravitas?
Steve:
As I’ve said before, they are in a panic fugue state and as that worsens, the higher is the likelihood of some outrageous stunt being pulled to delay or suspend the next election.
What will that be? The imminent threat of invasion from Myanmar [[where's Myanmar, Fred?]]? The suspicious purchase of certain antiques containing unacceptable levels of specific harmful susbstances by swarthy men wearing Abraham Lincoln beards? Scientific evidence being leaked that the Murray River is going into reverse flow and is sucking the Southern Ocean dry?
And, as I’ve said before, if I am wrong …. I’ll be happy to eat humble pie [even got the salt and pepper ready
]
So the supposed tax slip that the Opposition thought was a Godsend and the basis for the mudslinging in the last parliamentary sitting turns out to be nothing.
Good point Ambigulous, but of course the so called journalist interviewing Downer on AM this morning failed to even question him on this matter. Considering that the subject of the interview was Burma, it seemed a rather glaring oversight.
But we wouldn’t want the fearless ABC embarassing our Foriegn Minister, would we.
“But we wouldn’t want the fearless ABC embarassing our Foriegn Minister, would we.”
Hell no. Aunty is far too busy picking up on Kevs’ latest manufactured gaffe, as reported through News Ltd (and it is always limited) sources, to have time to pick up on anything a governent minister might fluff.
Andrew Laming has been cleared over Printgate allegations.
I read a lot botrh online and papers and watch ABC news as well but I,m buggered if I know whee the story about the ALP measuring up for their takeover came from,anyone enlighten me,or is it just the GG and Shamahan at it again.
Anyone want to be the GG endorses Howard at the election
Well this morning in West End, Brisbane – (right outside Anna Bligh’s electorate office infact) I saw the Liberals driving a giant billboard around. The slogan:
“Save Democracy…
Dump Labor”
Seriously – who is advising these guys?
Costello gives up poll date? http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/costello-gives-up-poll-date/2007/09/29/1190486633682.html
Wonder if we could see Howard then visit the lodge in about a week or so? There have been hints of a long campaign so maybe 6 weeks out from November 24th?
Noticed during the week that the local Liberal MP was sprucing up his campaign offices in Gosford. I’d say that all the Lib MPs know the date.
I wonder if Howard’s Christmas parade is designed to influence the election. Holding the parade a month before Christmas is a bit strange; I’d have thought maybe two weeks before. If we’ve got an election on the 24th and a parade on the 25th, will the Prime Minister be speaking?
Sol Trujillo spreads some Ratty poison.
I’d class Telstra’s intervention in the electoral process as terminal for th coalition.
This morning, (on meet the press i think), I saw Costello tell us the election date, maybe.
He was being interviewed on a sports show. Costello was asked how he was feeling. His reply? “Toey”. Was that because of the game or the election? Costello said they both culminate at this time of year, “the last day of September and the last day of November, isn’t it?”
It’s reported here
http://africa.reuters.com/world/news/usnSP285780.html
If 24/11 is the date, as Captain Smirk seems to have confirmed this morning, then the RHR ( Right Honourable Rodent) is unlikely to call the election this week, as he won’t want to give up the opportunity to go back to Parliament one more time before the election to try to make up some ground in the polls, if for no other reason than to slow the ‘bandwagon’ effect, as he must stop this trend of people thinking Labor will win and wanting to be on ‘the winner’ – ‘aspirationals’ won’t want to back a loser – both Smirk and RHR look like losers at the moment and the swingers just vote on the leader, as Possum Comitatus has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt, so some holes have to be put in Kevvie’s persona, or the Libs will be buried completely, their ashes to be scattered on Bradman Oval in honour of RHR’s greatest hero!
The only way they can do that is in Parliament, which also functions as reinforcement for their own ‘team’ if they can score some points ( apologies to non-sports lovers), thereby sending some of their own members back to the hustings with a bit of energy.
As in most facets of life, confidence is everything – St. Kevvie’s must be a little dented by his tax gaffe and throwing Boothby away with Nicole Cornes and the Libs seem to be chuffed by their own internal polling. We’ll see if Cornes has a national impact with Galaxy or AC Nielsen due out this coming week I think? And if Boothby can be thrown away by incompetent candidacy, so can a few other marginal Coalition seats – it must be Kevvie’s worst nightmare at the moment.
If election called this week, the campaign would be some 54 days long – i.e. more than 7 weeks, risking a real ‘turn-off’ by the swingers well before election day. He’ll also hold off because a number of ‘deals’ are clearly in the pipeline, like nuclear reprocessing, which can’t be signed off in the official ‘caretaker’ period, which is the election campaign proper, but should be now. LOL
Marcus.
More Rugby Pork from Howard.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22507221-5005361,00.html
â??Save Democracyâ?¦Dump Laborâ??
Seriously – who is advising these guys?… said Mark.
Mark, sounds like a classic ‘neo-con play’ and advice.
Having spent all their years in government trashing democracy, the Libs then turn around and blame their opponents, for possibly doing, in the future, what they have already done.
Big Bob Katter calls it for Rudd. Claims IR and climate change will kill Howard stone dead.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/070930/2/14k1f.html
He also reckons country people will swing ALP for first time in 30-40 years.
Ive been a big fan of Bob’s work on coalition unity for years.
You gotta listen when the Big Grey Kat talks.
Spot on, Lefty E, Big Bob is ‘all cattle no hat’. His advice, from the link, is impeccable….
“The government has been very, very bad on ethanol,” Mr Katter said.
The man is a sage. The Kirribilli wine cellar has a lot to answer for and we all know it!
Hi Frank, take it easy about time Rugby League got some thing out of it,after all the local WA state Govt hands the AFL millions and the Rugger buggers are slowly fading away.
Mind you League fan that I am it aint gonna help I want the bludger gone