After all the frenzy that characterised the last few weeks of Parliament, we’ve now entered the phoney phoney campaign. Howard’s dropped a strong hint that he won’t be calling the election next weekend, so we’re looking at a November or a December date. Why the wait? Howard seems to have bought the “media narrative” that he has to be within “striking distance” when the election is called – maybe a gap of 6 points or so on the 2PP rather than 10. The story goes that there’ll then be a “campaign bounce” or that the withering focus on Rudd and the Labor “team” (for which, read torrent of negative advertising) will rapidly erode Labor’s lead, and there’ll be a nail-biting finish. 16 seats will prove too high a mountain for Labor to climb. Really?
For a start, I think the claim that Howard is waiting to enable the government funded advertising to do its work is probably mainly Labor spin. Surely the Liberal pollsters wouldn’t be putting their faith in it (let’s assume that the Liberal Party does do research on “informational” government campaigns). It may be that putting some distance between the leadership implosion and the campaign is also part of the thinking, and of course there’s the focus group message of the day to recite (“Rudd would be a weak PM” is today’s mantra). But I think what we’re actually seeing is as simple as waiting on a more favourable poll to regain momentum (and one outlier on the wrong side of Newspoll might do the trick). That’s probably the rationale behind all the nutsoid spin from the GG’s leader writers and pundits at the moment.
Now, all this rests on the thesis that Howard is a good campaigner.
I’d take leave to question that. I’ve long been arguing that all the Coalition needed to do in 2004 was to remind voters that Mark Latham was probably nuts. But Howard appeared wrong-footed on several occasions. To pick only one, there was the shoulder twitch during the debate. And then there was the probably unnecessary spendathon during the campaign launch. Howard simply didn’t need to promise a billion bucks a minute – the election was in the bag.
Let’s go back further to 2001.
We could tell a more complex story but since all the focus is on Newspoll, let’s have a look at how it moved during the campaign.
Coalition Labor
September 21/23
50 (na) 35 (na)
Election called October 5
October 5/7
50 (56.5) 35 (43.4)
October 12/14
51 (55.5) 38 (44.5)
Debate October 14
October 19/21
47 (52.0) 39 (48.0)
October 26/28
48 (54.0) 37 (46.0)
November 2/4
45 (51.0) 39.5 (49.0)
November 7/8
46 (53.0) 38.5 (47.0)
Election result November 10
42.7 (51.0) 37.8 (49.0)
Source: Goot, Murray (2002: 67), ‘Turning points: For whom the polls tolled’, in Warhurst, J. & Simms, M. (eds), 2001: The Centenary Election, University of Queensland Press: St Lucia.
There’d be another story to be told about the poor predictive validity of Newspoll in the 2001 campaign (and Morgan and AC Nielsen weren’t fab either), but let’s just assume that the movement was broadly in the direction indicated. If you only take Newspoll into account, the government lost 4 points of its primary vote and Labor gained 4.5 over the course of the campaign. If you factor in the election result itself (remembering that Newspoll was probably over-estimating the Coalition vote all along), the government lost 7.3 points off its primary vote from when the campaign was called to election day. Note also that the first significant drop in the Coalition vote came just after the debate, when Howard was compared in the light of day to Beazley.
Worth remembering too that the Coalition went into the 2001 campaign defending a big lead, not coming from way behind.
I’ll leave the interpretation in your hands.
Update: Possum has a look at the question of the “narrowing of the gap during the campaign” but with even more data and groovy graphs! Go read!
Maybe so, but some bloggers have noted that the Libs appear to be short of cash, and have speculated that this is why they’ve dodged the recent by-elections. The effectiveness of the advertising is doubtful, but it’s not hard to imagine they’d try anything at this stage to get re-elected.
This hypothesis is probably the last of the Howard myths that needs debunking. Howard will probably not ‘win’ the campaign. Latham didn’t campaign particularly well, and Rudd is a media tart several orders of magnitude greater than his predecessor.
Rudd can think on his feet at least as well as Howard, and may be (slightly) less given to the use of weasel words. I’d tip Rudd to win any debates, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Howard tried to minimise any public sparring between them.
The other idea about waiting and a long campaign is supposed to be that it increases the likelihood that Rudd will make a big error. In light of Howard’s performance all year, and in particular the own goal of the leadership implosion (and forget all the conspiracy theories, the Dear Team Leader just lost his nerve), it’s odd that there’ve been no questions asked about Howard’s propensity to shoot himself in the foot big time.
Howard, like most pollies, is a power junky.
And the one bit of power that he and he alone possesses at the moment is the ability to name the election date.
As soon as he does that he loses that power, its gone.
So he hangs on, in quiet desperation, hoping for the tide to turn, the propitious omen, so he can overcome the dim fear that things may never be the same again, the beginning of the end as soon as the date is given, and procrastinates and hopes.
Lots of rationalizations available from many quarters as to when would be best but really it boils down to when he feels, in his water, that he can’t wait any longer, or now is the hour and takes the plunge.
When he is good and ready, or…when time has run out and he has lost the ability to control the moment and has to announce the time has come.
I thought mid Nov, but now I reckon his fear will make it later.
The media have also been wrongfooted on these issues throughout the year. Looking back, Burkegate was laughably trivial, and it’s outlandish to think anybody still cares. Not to mention the issue of Rudd’s wife, the stripper incident, the mis-recollection of childhood events, etc. None of these ‘errors’ has made the slightest difference to Rudd’s/Labor’s popularity.
I think people have been waiting for the next Tampa to roll in, or for Rudd to be found in bed with Osama. It hasn’t happened, and probably won’t, so our mighty Statesman of the People might have to win this one without external help, or Labor implosions.
One could probably conceptualise a longer time-frame.
Beazley won the 1998 TPP but lost the election. Brilliant political management by the Liberal machine achieved that victory.
As Mark suggests, in 2001 Beazley almost bridged a broad gap. Remember that this was the Child Overboard election. It could be argued that the electorate was revulsed by Howard’s manipulativeness, thus explaining his evaporating majority.
2004 was an out-lier because Latham was a train wreck.
Thus the reputation of Howard as a great campaigner rests only on the Latham debacle, an unrepresentative example of an election.
2007 is a return to politics as usual. This time around every cheap manipulative trick pulled by the Libs as exploded in their faces.
The argument could thus be proposed that Howard knows he’s a goner, so he and Hyacinthe have decided to prolong as long as possible their final days in Kirribilli House, the Sans Souci of Sydney.
Let’s suppose the strategy is Bennelong first, then Australia. “Otherwise how can the indispensable I continue to be prime minister? People are forgetting I have two elections to win this election. And they are forgetting that they called me an unparalleled political and economic genius (Refer Katz above). Then when I leave office they will forget me and my legacy”. . . and it cannot happen too soon.
There’s a thought, wmmmbb. Maybe he is trying to shore up his own seat before he pulls the starting trigger.
Time marches on and JWH only gets older, and, who knows a “senior moment” could be just around the corner.
That is the most plausible explanation.
Maybe Howard realises he’s about to be a feather duster and the silliness of the constitution allows him to decide his own use-by date. He could just be hanging onto the harbour views and he flag on the fender as long as he can.
It is a good argument for fixed terms between election dates.
Waiting for something to turn up (Tampa) saved him once before. A Muslim terrorist attack might save him this time.
I think the obvious answer, as stated by others, is that he’s REALLY worried about Bennelong and wants time away from Parliament to work the electorate hard and then see what the local polling tells him. He knows that Maxine has been working the electorate hard with doorknocking and the like and is proving to be very popular with the punters. He’s been caught napping on this one: he obviously thought, “celebrity candidate who doesn’t even live in the electorate; stupid Labor Party!” and thought he could just rest on his PM status and campaign for the party as a whole without having to worry about his own seat.
No way will he call the election until he is more confident of winning Bennelong, but he might find out he has no choice but to go soon anyway. I suspect the more the punters see Maxine the more they’ll want her anyway.
The Mandela of Steel is trying to delay his encounter with KRuddonite?
Yeah, Bennelong.
How keen could Ratty possibly be for the coming contest if he were convinced in his own mind that victory nationwide was victory for $mirker?
The ashes of that phyrric victory would have the bitterest taste.
Memo to Hyacinthe: If the Costellos take up residence at Kirribilli House, you’ll never get past the flywire door. It’s all your husband’s fault.
I have still never seen what makes Liberals think that negative muckraking sends polls upwards. Everything I have ever read on the matter has always said the reverse is true. Do Liberals read journals right to left and bottom of page to top of page to be able to miss the most basic of political concepts?
I reckon’ he just wants to have one more Christmas party on the harbour at Kirribilli House.
Sorry, don’t mind me. Carry on with the real discussion.
IM with Steve. Hope Rudd and Team07 work that out too. Just appear positive as the mud flies, and they’ll cruise in.
Good piece Mark. Imagine that, examining real historical trends in the campaign period data. I suppose thats because you’re a non-expert who doesnt own polls.
And yes, I agree that Howard is delaying for Bennelong related reasons.
I think he’s waiting for the undertaker to finish the pine box.
Steve, re negative advertising – the research I’ve seen is that it does work to bring down the figures of the one attacked, but it also brings down the figures of the one doing the attacking. Now, if you’re in a position where you can feasibly believe that your own figures have reached rock bottom and can’t possibly go lower, it might make sense to do everything you can to drag down your opponent’s primary vote.
Just a thought…
Also, while I like the Bennelong explanation, he could also be keen to get back to Parliament. The usual situation of Parliament benefitting the opposition by giving them a platform has been reversed at this election. Rudd is on the front foot in the debate between sittings, and seems to fumble the sitting weeks quite badly. Hockey and co get them riled up and messy in the House.
I agree. When would a condemned man choose to walk to the gallows – sooner or later? Howard has nothing to gain by going now (in fact he loses some control) and is desperately trying to shore up Bennelong. Nice flank attack by Labor.
I think Mark’s comments about Howard’s campaigning skills are on the ball. He’s not good at it. His modus operandi is to latch on to key issues in marginal seats where the election is to be won.
Everything is focussed on this, nothing else really matters. Bennelong is marginal too.
“So what’s he waiting for?”
Perhaps John Howard is hoping against hope that Parliment can return for a few more sitting days, so that he can bring the “Communications Legislation (Crime or Terrorism Related Internet Content)Bill 2007 into law before he faces the electorate.
Like much of Howard’s previous legislation, this ‘website censorship’ bill has a reach which extends past its subject title. It is capable of catching many blog sites if the AFP were to interpret the new sedition law provisions as applying.
For all blog sites it’s potentially a case of “Don’t mention the war” and don’t vehemently criticize the PM.
Anyone know of any other bills Howard might like to ram through at the eleventh hour?
Howard is bluffing once more. We’ve all laughed at Dennis Shanahan believing that any day now, Rudd’s campaign will fall apart – you know where he gets that from. Howard is still sitting at the blackjack table, hocking his watch and yelling “c’mon, hit me again! This time for sure!”. The rusted-on Howardites have almost all fallen away, but even those like Albrechtsen or whoever feel bad that if the old
bastardmaster won’t write himself off, who are we to do so?Rudd was right to force the pace, but if he keeps doing it he’s going to look cocky. He has to start treating Howard like a washed-up desperado: like the guy at the pub who hoots and hollers when he wins $50 on the pokies/horses, but when you look at him you know he’s spent $800 to get his “winnings”. This is the only antidote to the tenacity that his admirers like best about him, and that even his detractors praise him for. It is the only way to prevent a swing back to plucky Howard: cast him as Willy Loman.
Steve, this is an American narrative. The Libs have been inundated with second-rate Republican political consultants who urge canidates to go negative.
Under voluntary voting, mud flying turns voters off. People who aren’t rusted on to your opponent don’t bother turning up to vote, either because they believe the slur or they just don’t want to participate in the dirty business of politics. Under voluntary voting a non-vote for your opponent is as good as a vote for you. Combined with the fact that your voters swallow it, get outraged and start getting out the vote, it’s a winning strategy. Ever since Nixon, and
probablydefinitely before, it’s worked a treat.That assumes voluntary voting though. The Republican consultants that come out here aren’t smart enough to pick the paradigm shift that comes with compulsory voting, and the Liberal MPs and apparatchiks lack both the brains and balls necessary to front them on their sloppy work.
When Liberal campaigns go negative, party members arc up. Liberal MPs/apparatchiks condescend to them about making hard/tough choices, and how ‘experience’ shows that “negative campaigning works” when it in fact shows the opposite. When said party members hold fire until after the election they’re a) accused of being smart-alecks and disloyal, and b) patronised again in being told that the loss was due to a range of factors, unfair to blame it on just one.
One of the biggest fans I met of negative campaigning was NSW MP Peter Debnam. He’d make himself out to be a tough guy and urge the party to go the negative. I thought he would be hopelessly out of his depth if he ever became leader, and so it proved; I almost felt sorry for him in this year’s election but this post reminds me why that’s “almost” not “actually”. Hey Debnam: fuck you, loser.
Yeah right judith, he’s going to have one last pop at the bloggers. Good one! Nothing gets past you, does it!
But he’ll ruin Christmas.
i agree with the other bloggers its bennelong,
howard is under real pressure there, hard to campaign to be the next pm when the polls show you would lose your seat
yes it’s beginning to look like a train wreck for howard, wedged in bennelong, pressure to call election ratcheting up, no gain in polls,govt. advertising not working
john not happy
According to OzPolitics, the Coalition has turned the corner in the poll trends. Maybe that is what the Government is hoping may be strenghtening.
Andrew E, 9.31am
Go read the bill at ComLaw.
Obviously the entrails aren’t right at the moment. For 11 other possible reasons why he hasn’t called the election and a video plea to do it now, visit ‘Labor View from Broome‘. It is anabsolute disgrace that this government continues after its am date has clearly expired. Especially its industrial relations agenda.
Yes, and if you’re the default position for a vote (ie the incumbent) it can work if your own negatives aren’t bad enough. That’s what they mean when they say “no one is waiting with baseball bats”. It worked for Beattie and Iemma. I don’t think it’ll work for Howard.
tim, I think you’re probably right about Parliament too.
The spin that Latham was a train wreck before the election is laughable. He was being lauded as the great white saviur of the party up until after the election. It was only after the election that it became publicly clear just what a screw-up he was. Talk about a dodged bullet!
It doesn’t matter what the spin was, Razor. It’s how he was coming across to voters. And obviously that was unfavourably.
I’d like to ask readers to explain the ALP’s policy of not declaring who will assume what role if they win the role of Government?
Or is this is a diversionary tactic from the Libs? Do they declare who will be which Minister in advance ?( Irony of the position re Bennelong noted )
Is this usual ALP policy as has been done in previous elections ?
I haven’t been in Australia for an election for many years and can’t recall if this position is usual or a new development. Knowing that certain people would be getting set responsibilities would reassure me as a voter . So why the mystery?
I thought the process was that caucus chooses who will be the Ministers and then the PM decides which portfolio they will be given. Both events occur after the election.
“Knowing that certain people would be getting set responsibilities would reassure me as a voter . So why the mystery?”
Well part of it might be the fact they don’t absolutely KNOW who will get elected.
eg maybe they could be inclined to give a ministry to Maxine if she happened to win Bennelong. She would have to be in strong contention as a reward for defeating Howard (and a bit of rubbing salt in the wound, no doubt). She also comes across well in the media and quite possibly has some good political skills.
Also, announcing them NOW (and the election hasn’t yet been called) simply gives the coalition more time to smear their proposed ministry.
I still think he’s waiting for another Tampa, but this time I’m thinking the sinking ship will leave the rodent
If Labor wins the election there will be two Christmases this year.
I do believe he is waiting for a poll bounce from his Treasurer’s last three ludicrous budgets.
No judith, I’m really tired of people who can’t distinguish between a political issue that doesn’t convince people to change their votes and one that does. If you’re concerned about some new outrage against our freedoms, that’s fine – but you’re drawing a long bow and introducing a red herring (I prefer to think of that last phrase as metaphor salad rather than being merely ‘mixed’).
Steve, the grand finals are not until this weekend but today there are players who are limbering up, feeling confident etc. I don’t know Rudd but I’d imagine the worst thing you could do is trail your coat like this.
I thought the Grand finals were the end of the process and an election was the beginning of a process. Your football analogy in no way relates to the political process in this instance Andrew E. Neither can the Libs tell us who will their ministers because as Pollyticked off says there is no certainty about who will be elected until election night at the earliest.
Liberal voters can not even be sure of the Leader if the Libs win. Are they really voting for Howard as PM or Costello for PM given the Bennelong situation or someone else unknown to everybody?
steve, the coming general election, the caucus election after that, another one and another one whatever, they’re all part of the same process. I don’t see this as “certainty”, I see it as positioning – but I question how effective this positioning could be with Rudd. If you’re a professional in that game you take the longer view and position yourself. The second part of my earlier comment refers to the way Rudd makes decisions, something tells me he’s not happy with quasi-public jockeying.
“Well part of it might be the fact they don’t absolutely KNOW who will get elected.”
Sure enough but most Ministers must come from seats where their majorities are large .The factions must have a very good idea about who is at risk of losing. Is there a single shadow minister who is at risk ?
“I thought the process was that caucus chooses who will be the Ministers and then the PM decides which portfolio they will be given. Both events occur after the election.”
Is it guaranteed that Rudd will be PM if the ALP wins? If his factional sway is lost could another PM emerge ?
I appreciate that the electorate may think they are voting for Kevin 07 but in reality he is only elected in his electorate.
Star candidates like Peter Garret would add to the appeal of voting Labor if people felt he was going to be given a significant role but is he subserviant to the eventual factional breakdown?
The subtext to all this is Tony Abbott started it by claiming that Gillard would be Treasurer and Roxon wouldn’t be health minister. I think Rudd would have done better to have at least confirmed that Swan would be Treasurer. It’s an own goal.
And who would be the Liberal Treasurer in the event of a Liberal win but Howard losing Bennelong?
“last three ludicrous budgets’ – ludicrous enough to be supported by the ALP, who presented no significantly different policy settings, and still don’t.
The silly thing is, at least as regards to Treasurer, Gillard has says she dosn’t want it – at least not yet, she wants IR. And unlike the rest of the Ministry, as Deputy Leader, she can choose what she wants.
So its really just fuffle.
Anyone want to offer odds of Howard being parachuted into a safe Liberal electorate ?
It would look like outright capitulation but what is the limit to scheming deviousness? Brendan Nelson could swap with Howard – the good people of the North Shore would feel it only right and proper that the PM was their representative.
Mark , isn’t it usual protocol to have the Deputy PM in ALP governments offered the role of Treasurer?
And I’ll ask again could Rudd be rolled after the election if the factional balance shifts ?
No, boredinhk. Only Keating as Deputy PM was Treasurer (and he didn’t become Deputy til Lionel Bowen retired). Bowen and Howe and Beazley weren’t Treasurer.
If Rudd wins, he’ll be secure for a very long time. No party rolls a leader who takes them into government.
Yeah, I’ll have some of that. Talk about Weekend at Bernie’s.
Um, no:
1995-96 Kim Beazley: not Treasurer
1991-95 Brian Howe: not Treasurer
1990-91 Paul Keating: oh all right
1983-90 Lionel Bowen: not Treasurer
1975 Frank Crean: had been Treasurer, but not Treasurer and Deputy PM at the same time
1975 Jim Cairns: I won’t tell anyone if you won’t
1972-75 Lance Barnard: not Treasurer
1946-49: H V Evatt: not Treasurer
1941-46 Frank Forde: not Treasurer
1929-30, 30-31 Ted Theodore: Treasurer
You may have this confused with the Coalition. The leader of the Nats becomes Deputy PM but the Deputy Leader of the Libs generally takes Treasury.
Conclusion: any Labor deputy PM who takes on Treasury at the same time is pretty much sculling from the poison chalice.
Andrew E 12.40pm,
“No judith, I’m really tired of people who can’t distinguish between a political issue that doesn’t convince people to change their votes and one that does. If you’re concerned about some new outrage against our freedoms, that’s fine – but you’re drawing a long bow and introducing a red herring (I prefer to think of that last phrase as metaphor salad rather than being merely ‘mixed’).”
Seem to remember that in the past any bill with the word ‘terorism’ in it has worked reasonably well for Howard.
As for it not being a vote changer – it seems The Greens don’t agree.
“Plans for a radical new law to give the Australian Federal Police powers to censor internet content have run into political trouble early, after the Greens vowed to turn internet freedom and censorship into an election issue to be backed by web advertising and a social media campaign.” [www.misaustralia.com,24.09.07]
As far as Political Death Row’s go, Kirribilli House sure takes some beating.
Wonder what he’ll order for his last free feed?
“Wonder what he’ll order for his last free feed?”
The contents of the wine cellar? He is known to like a tipple (particularly when he loses).
Howard may be awaiting a bounce from the huge 30% childcare rebates paid this year upfront (rather than as rebates through the tax system).
As I said earlier – Rudd should come out in support to neutralise the impact (while coming up with a decent integrate childcare/ kinder package – something we dont have)
My sense also is that even lib voting parents dont really trust the private providers like ABC. So Rudd can go a public education route here bigtime, with virtually no risk. Most parents can tell you a bad story they’ve heard,or experienced, about profit driven childcare centres.
Latest begging.
Funniest post of the week.
This is a party that is witnessing the slow demise of both of its political rivals – the Democrats and Labor left – and they still can’t make a go of it. Howard won two elections before 11/9/01. It’s lovely that you’ve got your hobby horse but I still don’t fancy its chances in the Melbourne Cup.
Thanks to the quarantine cuts, there probably won’t be a Melbourne Cup this year.
Lefty E: The childcare rebate isn’t upfront, by any strech of the imaginiation. It’s based on out of pocket costs incurred last finacial year.
I reckon he’ll wait until after christmas because Janette’s already had the cards printed…
Good clarification Andrew B.
Yes, I meant its now paid automatically without Mr or Mrs punter having to fill out a tax return first.
Agree with Mark. Why remove a successful leader after they win an election? Has this ever happened in Federal or State politics?
Re Child care rebate – this year they get TWO years worth for child care paid in 2006 FY via their tax return and 2007 FY via Family Assistance Office .
Swan will be Treasurer.. The sooner Howard calls the election the sooner the new Treasurer can begin work.
Rudd has clarified that Swan will be treasurer, Tanner for finance and Julia for IR.
“”Mr Howard has sought clarity on this matter. I’ve provided clarity, I ask Mr Howard now to do the same,” he said.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-names-top-team–if-he-wins/2007/09/27/1190486465809.html
It could be howard is waiting for pension changes to flow through.
steve,
Snap!
Kruddie – the Master of the about face – yesterday – absolutely nothing guaranteed – today – all locked away.
This guy is like an Octupus the way he slithers and slides into different positions.
I’m waiting for Howard’s pension to flow through too so the place can change for the better.
Here we go ‘round the mulberry bush…
“The Coalition may just be turning the corner�. So says Bryan Palmer from Oz Politics.
How many times over the past nine months have we heard that statement, or similar, from Mr Palmer?
Mr Palmer has ventured too many times around that giant roundabout in Canberra me thinks; he appears to be suffering from a bad case of corners on the mind.
If the Coalition has turned yet another corner, as Mr Palmer suggests, surely they’d have come full circle by now.
If The Australian is looking for a new pollster or analyst willing to sing from the Coalition hymn sheet, they need look no further than Bryan Palmer.
Bryan Palmer, like the vast majority of MSM journalists, fails to highlight the high and remarkably consistent ALP primary vote.
Here we go ‘round the mulberry bush…
Pension changes floating through look very queesy in light of farmers $ 20000 a year allowed earnings on top of their handout. Can’t imagine too many pensioners thinking they’ve won tatts.
Earle Page forced Hughes to resign in favour of Bruce after the 1922 election, but that was pressure from a coalition partner.
Menzies being deposed in August 41 after (sort of) winning his first (but the governments fourth) election in September 40 is probably the closest in terms of dumping from within. Though you could maybe argue that Fisher was pushed as much as he jumped in October 15 after the September 15 election.
I think that Gorton and Hawke are the only other PMs to have been rolled (rather than resigning or dying) mid-term, excluding the shennanigans of the first few years.
“I think Rudd would have done better to have at least confirmed that Swan would be Treasurer. It’s an own goal.”
*removes ball from net*
“This afternoon Mr Rudd confirmed the core members of his economic team if Labor wins the upcoming federal election naming Wayne Swan as Treasurer, Julia Gillard as deputy leader and minister for employment and industrial relations and Lindsay Tanner as minister for finance.” ABC Online.
Rudd was just waiting for Razor to put the pressure on.
I took Judith’s advice and read the bill. It’s not long, and it’s very straightforward.
The AFP Commissioner will have power to demand content be removed where it relates to a Commonwealth offence — by encouraging/inciting an offence, where its intention is to facilitate an offence, or where it is likely to facilitate an offence.
I agree that it goes far beyond terrorism, but then the title does say “crimes and terrorism”.
I disagree that it will be aimed at bloggers. It will be aimed at copyright infringement (bittorrent sites and the like) and protest sites (green and red/black groups).
While I can see the Greens using it to gee up their core constituency, it will not be a major campaign issue. Howard surely does not see it as one.
Only trouble is it has put all the pressure back on Howard not only to name the election date but who will be his key Ministers in the next term and what portfolios they will have.
Well done Razor the electorate hates uncertainty.
Andrew E 3.04pm,
“Funniest post of the week”?
No matter what any of us may think of the Greens, preferences count and therefore none of the established minor parties can be ruled out as players in this election.
Positions they may take can still influence some voters.
If you want to see my real “hobby horse”, don’t attempt to weakly patronise, Google me instead.
Atticus 5.13pm
I’m a blogger and I have a hosted protest site – ergo by your argument I am potentially vulnerable to any heavy handed application of this bill’s provisions if it becomes law.
However, I don’t expect my blog to be a target.
I am more concerned with the fact that I rely in part on the Internet to reseach issues for submissions/background papers and, don’t fancy finding some sites suddenly verboten in the future.
The bill may not be a major election issue but it is in play.
Thanks for actually reading it, Atticus. At least your opinion is informed by fact.
A quote from my sidebar seems apt:
Matthew Arnold
quadumvirate?
He might be waiting for Godot or the narrowing
mark,
firstly, i think they are sitting down right now, planning a long campaign with PM trips to every marginal at least twice, and back to bennelong in between each. ie. lots of plane trips for the old fella.
thanks to rudd, there are way more marginals to cover than they would have anticipated(!!) and each one needs to be pork barrelled in its own special juices, and with appropriate ministers on hand to preen and baste….and alternately hiss about the ALP on the regional 6 o’clock news.
this requires quite a bit of planning and organising.
meanwhile, there is a shit load of data mining and printing to be finalised. i know i’m going to get at least 10 personalised pieces of mail from malcolm and john….
marketing 101: X amount of personalised letters in envelope properly addressed to customer = 1 sale….. Dear Jo, just thought I’d write and tell you about…. ..yours John….(and possibly referencing any issue i might have arc-ed up about and sent a letter to the MP or any govt dept.) much more effective than anon. brochure/card with a pic and list of pledges – which is what the ALP was stuck with last time.
and a 8-9 week negative campaign requires at least 70 sledges/slurs/dirt files etc. to be organised….all takes time.
and the actual Liberal Party radio/tv adverts need to be made…crikey..they’ve been SO busy making the Govt ones!! – they’ll have to split the team and probably bring in some fresh blood to get them ready in time…… and then they’ll want to organise the scheduling of the Govt adverts with their Liberal Party adverts to re-inforce and maximise their impact…….matching programming and two sets of advertising…sheesh, give em a break!
& the youtube stuff has to be organised.
and, all of the above will be interspersed with lead nightly news story of multi-million dollar programs (ON TOP of the pork barrels) these will be announced in various marginals which coincide with whatever demographic the policy is aimed at…..i think they racked up $12 billion in pledges during the 2004 campaign…gods knows how many promises were ever kept….more child care places, a few more aged care beds, tax cuts worth $4.50 each, private health/school rebates (isnt it a 100% yet??) and a few more dollars for climate change and so on.
…..it aint easy or cheap, keeping an unpopular govt in power these days.
And who said those “internet weblogs” don’t influence political plays?
my comment has gone into limbo. damn.
I think he’s waiting for the election ads to be produced. At the moment, they have a picture of a contrite John Howard gripping the rim of his bush hat and tearfully facing the camer, and a voice over “um, er, vote for me, pwetty pwease” but it isn’t testing well in their target demographics.
I suspect he doesnt know what to do at this point. Bit clueless as to next move.
Update: Possum has a look at the question of the “narrowing of the gap during the campaign” but with even more data and groovy graphs! Go read!
The Orstrahyun can see no good reason to delay.
TPS has the usual high quality post on the pressure being transferred from the Opposition to the Government.
I notice Steve Lewis in The Terrorgraph is keeping the dream alive – as in saying that the Coalition is starting to claw back ground, Rudd is pissed off that he’s not the underdog, that holding off the announcement of the election date is helpful to the Coalition….
Moreover, he argues that Coalition spending on climate change, medical research grants and drought packages wouldn’t have been possible had an election date been announced. Well why wasn’t this all spent some time before when the government had plenty of time to deal with these issues? Surely all this feverish spending is really not showing that the Coalition has a plan for the future at all, but merely a plan to win the next election? Hopefully the public will see this for the craven, calculating vote-buying for what it is.
That’s always been my test for when the Coalition is riding high. Unfortunately, election night could bring a change of attitude to this overconfident Government.
What do the call a collective of wrist slashers
Liberal voters
taadaa
That is the big decision for this government. Should they slash their wrists now, or wait till after the election?
Silkworm, they won’t like today’s Morgan Poll even though the server at Morgan has crashed. Howard should have gone to an election weeks ago and the longer he waits the worse it gets.
Yep, Morgan 60.5-39.5.
Primary 54 (!!!) – 36.
Howard is nauseating the punters more every week he delays. Nowhere to run.
Select your execution date, Crodent!
No, no hurry….. we can wait.
The time for him was when he last stared done Costello and as usual the arrogance and over confidence of the Tories has turned against them bigtime.
I’m just waiting for JHo’s next deer-in-the-headlights look which we can turn into a poster.
He is starting to think about cutting and running.
This is of course a backflip on what he told the voters of Bennelong just a frw weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he leaves someone else to call the election and just bails out. He has recently blamed everyone bar himself for the poor polls.
Poster of JWH suffering from frith [State of rabbits when trapped in car headlights -Watership Down]appeared on ABC Midday News.JWH was musing – if that is the word – on not staying on in Bennelong if the Libs are defeated. I thought I’d have to wait till election night to get my shot of schadenfreude but my bet is these blokes know they’re beaten and they’re wanting to delay the awful end as long as possible.
Re targeting green/red/black groups for being nasty to Gov. on the net – Since the two main groups are registered political parties are they not protected by the constitutional inferences of the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum and the 1983 [?] decision on political advertising that there is an inferred constitutional right that all political parties cannot be banned and freedom of political speech respectively.Or am I deluded?
60-40, eh? Where’s the bounce? Must be the bandwagon effect, also called the snowball effect.
The problem with snowballs is that they don’t bounce … they just run over you.
Just like bandwagons.
As opined previously pleeeese wait as long as possible. Political acumen anyone!!
Paul Burns 3.59pm,
There are literally hundreds of green or protest Internet sites which are not set up by political parties.
I think the High Court judgment you are referring to contained a dissenting opinion, so who knows how a court might rule in the future.
However the point may be moot as, far as I can tell, the bill in question does not allow appeal of bans. So the road to court may be rocky for any website that has the considerable funds required to seek adjudication.
SBS News mentioned that the Labor Party had improved its position according to the latest Morgan poll, but failed to mention what the new percentages were. This is better than all the other channels, including even the ABC, who failed to mention the Morgan poll at all. This poll is just too embarrassing for the Howard-huggers in the media.
Dont sweat it dudes. They’re caught. Trying to ‘be underdogs’ and ’spin momentum’ at the same time.
I suspect the rise in Morgan is a result of their “good week” last. Scared the punters a bit.
Any sign that Rodent is back in it will lead to an immediate 3% poll boost for the ALP.
In sum, I have no doubt punters intend to vote Howard out, and do it big. Any sense of momentum will lead to immediate ALP counterswings. Spinning momentum plays nicely into Rudd’s hands.
Dead government walking.
Incidentally, in support of my thesis, that why the “think LNP will win” went up six. Panicked punters switching to Rudd, thinking Rodent was back in the game.
It’s amazing, I’ve done all sorts of Google searches and nothing on todays Morgan, and watching the Lateline pundits and just been mentioned there, but Michael Costello ignored it and talked about the strong economy instead and managed to squeeze out that Labor still had a lot of work to do to win.