Well might George W. Bush ask himself that question.
Let’s not forget that Nelson Mandela was a highly educated lawyer. Where have the Iraqi middle class gone? Those who the neo-cons banked on to form the social constituency for “instant democracy” and provide its leaders? Fled.
40% of Iraq’s middle class, it’s estimated, are refugees. Most are in Jordan or Syria. A lucky few are in countries such as Canada and Sweden. Very few have made it to America, where they’re basically not wanted:
An aggressive American intake of refugees would suggest their quick return to Iraq is improbable: that smacks too much of failure for Bush. Moreover, you have to scrutinize refugees from countries “infiltrated by large numbers of terrorists,” Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff opined recently.
And the secular parties that had a commitment to modernity and national unity? Wiped out through the political system established by the Americans, who empowered the theocratic Shi’ite parties.
Roger Cohen writes:
People who risked their lives for America are dying or being terrorized because of craven U.S. lethargy. Others are in limbo. Bush now says “Saddam Hussein killed all the Mandelas.” That’s too glib; one may be waiting to be saved.
The girl blogger Riverbend writes about fleeing from Baghdad.
The Iraqi people voted for ouright theocrats, and shunned the secularists in droves.
Bush’s major contribution to this aspect of the many-faceted fiasco that is Iraq was to present to the Iraqi people for ratification a constitution that enshrined Sharia Law.
It ought to be recognised that Bush has been the greatest enabler of Sharia Law since the Ayatollah Khomenei.
“It ought to be recognised that Bush has been the greatest enabler of Sharia Law since the Ayatollah Khomenei.”
Well he has told us talks to God .And this God answers back apparently so it must all be part of the big picture in a world of faith based realities.
If there is an “Iraqi Mandela” he is probably armed to his teeth fighting with the insurgents against the US occupation of his country. Let’s not forget that Nelson Mandela was long branded a terrorist, even by polite Western politicians who implicitly supported the racial biases of their wealthy friends in SA.
Personally, I would prefer to see the rise of an “Iraqi Gandhi”, a person who could lead a mass protest of peaceful citizens against the violence from all sides.
Also worth linking to this story from former diplomat Bruce Haigh in SMH today:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/confessions-of-an-australian-diplomat/2007/09/26/1190486390154.html
So bringing religious freedom and the ability to vote for those who the majority want in power is a bad thing?
The vast majority of Iraqis, Sunno or Shia, are moderates. The ones who really push the Sharia law shit are the terrorists, who are the ones who benefit the most from calls by the majority of posters here to withdraw Coalition Forces in order to allow Iraq implode on itself into another Rwanda/Somalia.
What did you expect the administrators to do - not allow any religion at all like Saddam did?
Oh, and by the way, Mandela was and is a terrorist. Do you actually believe SA is better place now than before?
Holy flying shitballs, dude. Does anybody _not_ believe that? That a country, whatever it’s problems now, is somehow not better than segregated racially divided nation that preceded it?
You are insane. Why do you even come here, Razor? Stormfront would cater to your predilections so much more effectively.
I wish LP had a more active banning policy. I can count your valuable contributions here on my elbow.
Since neither of those has actually been achieved - unless you count the freedom to kill people who don’t share your religion as “religious freedom” - that question is purely hypothetical.
Actually, even left-leaning Wikipedia more-or-less says he was a terrorist.
Anyone can change though. He had 27 years to think over his choices and he came out a pacifist. It didn’t hurt that governing attitudes mellowed by then as well.
Exactly patrick - whatever its problems now it is better than it was before. SA is better not being under apartheid and Iraq is better off not being under Saddam. (Although you’ve got to give to SA for the rate of death without a civil war - violent crime deaths and car accidents deaths are astounding!!)
Gummo - there is more religious freedom in Iraq now than when Saddam was in power. And they do get to vote for who they want. Are you saying the elections don’t happen? The voting is rigged? What?
“Oh, and by the way, Mandela was and is a terrorist.”
What needs serious contemplation is that Razor used to a member of our armed forces, or so he (anonymously) says.
A priority for the incoming government should be throughoughly examine the make up of the people who are in the ADF.
Razor,
Iraq remains a country under military occupation. The elected government has no effective arms of administration, no effective policing capacity - hence the need for a continuing US presence. Ergo, Iraq is not ruled from the Iraqi parliament but from elsewhere. Like the offices of those US corporations that carpet-bagged all the infrastructure.
I think the big difference between Iraq and the old SA comes down to the rule of law. Crap as the old SA government was they still maintained at least the facade of a “rule of law”. This enabled (among the outright extra judicial killings such as Biko), a chance for a Mandela to survive.
It also enabled activist lawyers (some of them died as well) to use the courts to both publicise and challenge some of the injustices inflicted by the white minority.
Saddams mob tended to kill a lot more indiscriminately, so unless you were already out of the country or had some help you were effectively screwed. The point about middle class flight you make is valid, but the middle class and professionals were the main people fleeing during the Saddam days as well. Iraq will be decades in becoming a fully functional society, the theocracy you deplore were often the only public face of opposition to Saddam inside Iraq, so in that respect “earned” the trust of people whos experience of government institutions was otherwise overwhelmingly negative.
Mistakes, blunders and assumptions have and will continue to be made by both coalition and the Iraqis themselves. Critics need to be cautious in respect to pointing out errors and mistakes (a valuable and underrated service in a democracy), and writing off Iraq as too morally difficult to support.
My apologies Razor, sarcasm is so damned hard to pick up on forums sometimes!
That said, I think it’s a fairly specious comparison - both Iraq under Saddam to SA, and Iraq post-Saddam to post apartheid SA.
The government of Iraq has very little say in the concrete realities in how the country is run, most of that is up to US government/forces/companies.
spiros - yes, I was in the Army. If you weeded out people with my political views then there would go 80% of the ADF. The current high profile ALP Ex-ADF candidates are definitely a minority.
Gummo - so, because the Iraqis are having trouble, we should just abandon them?
patrickg - apology accepted. Bush was right - Saddam was much more “effective” against Iraqi potential Mandelas than the SA government - having your female relatives raped and butchered in front of you while hanging by the wrists from electrical wire with dislocated shoulders and days of beatings puts a damper on the revolutionary spirit.
Was a terrorist. Not is. His terrorizing days were 40 years ago.
Agree for SA; doubtful for Iraq. Say 1 million Ba’athist democide + another million for the Iraq-Iran war. Let’s say 2 million over the 24 years of Hussein’s reign (1979-2003), or an average of 83,000 people dead per year.
According to the Lancet Survey, 654,965 up to 2006, or 218,321 dead per year. Then you have the ORB survey, with 1,220,580 dead up to 2007, or 305,145 dead per year.
Even more murdering, torture and rapine than before, Razor - but with a twist. Under Saddam, atrocities were wholesale. These days, it’s retail.
Down and out - I’m not even going to bother with your statistics, but at least now those doing the murdering and raping are being hunted. Under Saddam they aacted with impunity - just a slight difference, or doesn’t it matter?
I’m not so sure that there is more religious freedom in Iraq than before Saddam. There is sectarian cleansing being committed in Iraq at the moment, by Shia forces that are allied to the US occupation and the absurd facade that passes for the Iraqi government. If militia are forcing you to leave your home at gunpoint do you really have religious freedom? There are a million extra dead Iraqis and between three and four million refugees inside and outside of Iraq as a result of this invasion. The country doesn’t even exist anymore, it’s an Iraq-shaped hole in the map. How much carnage and for how long do think is an acceptable price for ending Saddam’s regime?
Why stop at 1 million? Why not 100 million dead Iraqis? Why not 10 billion dead Iraqis? Gee this Iraqi deaths survey thing is really easy!
I presume Craig Mc is a professional statistician.
Why not, Razor? Are you going to ignore them just because they clash with your views that “Iraq is better off not being under Saddam”? I also used to think that way until a year and a half ago.
Sorry, Razor, but that’s not really much of a happy ending. A lot of the old gang of muderers and rapists are already dead, or have fled the country. That hasn’t stopped the ongoing massacres, or that the only “crime” of a lot of the murdered happened to be the “wrong” religion at the time. Or (with suicide bombers), just happened to be in the wrong place at the time.
You forgot to say “NANANANANANANA I CAN”T HEAR YOU!”
The troouble with this dang deomkrasy fing is the poeple don’t always get it right the first 23 times.
Don’t forget Henry the K prior to that other Sept 11 (1972), I” don’t see why we should let a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people”.
Kissinger also said:
Brendan Nelson and his buddies would do well to remember that (too late for Howard).
Razor said:
Sounds good to me. Let’s do it. Not only would is save us many millions of taxpayer dollars, it might also help salvage the AFP’s reputation.
But what would be do with all the people like Razor suddenly tossed into the labor market? Lollipop crossing assistants? No, our kids deserve better.
Gandhi: That’s ADF not AFP.
Razor:
gandhi:
Gandhi: political checks on ADF personnel sounds rather… Ba’athist to me.
Well, what’s the difference these days?
You are right. I’ve never understood why any person who was not a rightwing psycho would join the armed forces anyway. So let’s just assume that they are all like Razor and just shut the whole thing down completely.
Well gandhi my mother did. In 1942. From my memory of her she wasn’t a right-wing psycho. But she did think it important to serve as a nurse helping those defending our country.
Your comment is trash.
Slightly off topic but this is a link to an article from the author of a book on Al queda.
Be a person Shia ,Sunni or even Kurd if they profess the faith it would seem to invalidate their ability to take on a role like Mandela did.
Reconciliation , truth and justice commissions all need a degree of tolerance and forgiveness.
The secular middle classes have probably done the most sensible thing by fleeing the civil war and the slow and destructive process that seems to be moving to a division of the country.
http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?id=8ytztvdt6sy6×5p550p2m258myk1c1nm
gandhi, you definitely wandered off into troll territory with that last comment.
Huh?
1. Constitution of Iraq.
2. Please explain you mean by “moderate”. Units of Iraq’s armed forces have done the lion’s share of murdering and ethnic cleansing of Iraq’s Sunni. The number killed is open to dispute, but it cannot be fewer than 100,000. Moreover 4m Sunni are now fugitive from their homes. That’s about 50% of all Sunni.
3. At the local level virtually all civil society functions are performed not by the state but by sectarian organisations, the most important of which are the Sadrists, who also boast a huge militia organisation. The government of Iraq is a mere facade maintained by both the Shiite majority and the Bush administration for their own contradictory reasons. For the Shiites it keeps the US at arms length while they ethnically cleanse Iraq. For Bush it is a Potemkin Village to justify his increasingly threadbare rationalisations for continuing to commit to Iraq.
To put the magnitude of the US fiasco in context. The US has already commited more than $600 billion to Iraq. That represents an expenditure of $24,000 for every Iraqi resident in the country.
Eventually, this fiasco will cost $2 trillion. That is about $85,000 per Iraqi.
GregM, the ADF wouldn’t have needed nurses if they hadn’t had soldiers. Millions died to stop Fascism in WWII but now we are quietly embracing it anyway. So what was the point?
Gummo, anyone who doesn’t support the troops is a troll?
I think abolishing the Armed Forces is a great idea. We could spend the money on Foreign Aid, schools and hospitals. Our neighbours would not see us as a growing military threat. Of course it won’t happen, but I’m entitled to an opinion. You don’t have to agree, or even feel threatened, but don’t label me a troll. I’ve had more than enough of that crap.
So they are an Islamic country - they voted on their own constitution. Should the Coalition have forced them to have no reference to religion in their constitution even if the majority wanted it? (I’m an athiest and believe in separation of church and state, but each to their own.) Unfortunately the Christians and any remaining Jews have copped the lot from the islamofascists, but they aren’t on their own are they. The Shia are now able to practice their religion in a way the Bathists never allowed them to. The vast majority of Iraqis reject fundamentalism and Sharia law.
I’m not saying things are perfect and nobody is. Nor is anyone saying mistakes haven’t been made. I wouldn’t mind going through a day without making a wrong decision (like spending time on this site). That said, things are slowly improving - but it takes time. The Sunni have turned against Al Queda and the Yanks are learning how to fight an effective counterinsurgency campaign.
Your view of it as a Government that is a mere facade etc is based on an expectation of a perfect functioning system. Iraq society and government needs time to adjust from the past to what is needed for the future. Even Kevin Rudd in today’s Australia needs time, most of his election promises are for things that won’t have results in his potential first term and some are four and five terms. Your obvious contempt of the short comings of iraqi society, their fledgling democracy and government is plainly obvious. If I was a lefty and you were a rwdb with those sort of views I’d probably call you a racist. But I’m not, so I won’t.
As for the cost of the operation - so what? How much do you think should have been spent? How much is freedom worth? How much is a life worth? If military operations start in Dufar what limit will you set on it?
How much is it worth to the world to take a decade to bring about a country that might end up as a role model for the rest of the ME?
How much did WWII cost? How much did maintaining US Forces in Europe post WWII in the face of the Soviet threat cost? How much is a soldier’s life worth? do we give them Kevlar and Carbon Fibre Armour, robust and accurate optics for weapons, armoured vehicles, night vision, satelite navigation, encrypted digital comms, medevac helicopters on tap, precision guided muntions, etc etc etc, or just say “It costs too much!”.
Once again, on the issue of cost - so what? There is no point made unless you can say why the cost is important. And as an amatuer econmist I would point out to you that sunk costs don’t matter.
Bored In HK:
That’s one of the best, most concise opinions on the whole show since America’s Failed Ruler went on his underplanned misdirected poorly-resourced counter-productive excursion into playing soldiers …. and he has also done more than anyone else to make Atheism respectable.
Mark:
All the talented Iraqis now in Syria and Jordan have the potential the potential to make both Syria and Jordan extraordinarily prosperous [for instance, look at how the arrival of talented refugees, with the same or similar ethnic and cultural backgrounds, did so much to launch the economic prosperity of Israel or war-ravaged WEST Germany]. It will be interesting to see if President Assad and King Abdullah see the Iraqi refugees as a major problem …. or as a Heaven-sent blessing.
There would be Iraqi “Mandelas” out there but will they show their greatness back in the turmoil and peril of Iraq …. or in the countries that gave them shelter? Will they lead a ruined Iraq or will they lead a resurrected Greater Araby? “Watch this space”
$2T for invasion and reconstruction you say?
Just as a comparison, the Marshall Plan would be equivalent to about $700B today. That figure doesn’t include the cost of WWII itself to the US economy, which would be equivalent to about $21T dollars today (all comparisons as a percentage of US GDP, and rough ones at that).
Just to put those numbers into perspective.
Craig - perspective indeed.
Same cost roughly (assuming you’re correct) for two pretty different outcomes, wouldn’t you agree? One tinpot dictator bumped off and replaced with chaos and pile upon pile of bodies, versus one megalomaniac exterminator of entire races hell-bent on dominating the entire old world successfully defeated and replaced with (fairly) good governance in (fairly) short order.
Maybe the crucial feature of the Marshall Plan was the second word in it.
No, anyone who goes out of their way to make inflammatory comments which they know will take the discussion off topic is “wandering off into troll territory” as I said in my last comment. Your response has just taken you deeper into that territory. So cool it.
FDB, I think you’ve missed an order of magnitude there.
It is not an issue of supporting the troops. What you did is label all members of the armed forces as rightwing psychos.
That is a despicable comment.
Yes you are entitled to an opinion. Just as we are entitled to condemn that opinion for the worthless trash it is and to consider how it devalues every other comment you make.
And just as Gummo is entitled to the opinion, well justified in my view, that you are a troll.
Ah yes, my bad.
2 points remain - firstly, one of those expenditures was broadly successful and manifestly just, the other a shambles with questionable motives, vague objectives and poor execution.
Secondly, only a very shallow analysis of WWII financing would conclude that it cost the US economy. Certainly a lot of US money was spent on it, but then they’re not the same thing at all, are they?
[NOTE: I’m quite aware that the same thing applies in Iraq’s case, although it appears the money is neither achieving the stated ends nor employing large numbers of needy Americans]
I’m not sure the WWII allies thought they were achieving the stated ends at the time either. Not everyone thought it was manifestly just either, otherwise it would have started in 1938 and finished in 1939.
Time makes fools of us all.
In my view of the world, there are those who advocate violence and those who do not. Again I ask, does advocating that point of view make me a troll? I have no respect whatsoever for anyone who takes up or advocates violence, including anyone who joins the armed forces. Again, does that make me a troll?
Mandela is now hailed as a hero, even though he loudly agitated for violence over many years. In the end, it was not the violence perpetrated by the ANC, but the prolongued horrific spectacle of non-violent resistance and suffering displayed by ordinary citizens which brought the world around to Mandela’s side. As a cogent symbol of the resistance, Mandela was simply best positioned to take advantage of the anti-government sentiment. That’s my reading of SA history.
Of course I appreciate much of what Mandela has done. And as someone commented earlier, 27 years of incarceration no doubt tempered his views. But to pretend that Mandela alone (or even Gandhi) was responsible for the change in his country is just facile over-simplification. IMHO the problems exhibited by today’s ANC are just an extension of their original failings.
I suggest you all take a look at Jonathan Schell’s book, The Unconquerable World, which posits the concept that real change only comes from the masses of ordinary, peace-loving citizens. I am hopeful that the latest events in Burma might provide further support for this world-view.
Ghandi - just make sure you don’t ever resist or call for Police assistance if you or your family and friends are violently attacked. I’d hate for someone to use violence in order to protect you.
gandhi, James Meek described the US military, the most powerful in world history, thus: “a muscular, atavistic entity whose razor teeth and scimitar claws tear in vain at an enemy too scattered and too diverse for the senses evolution has given it.”
As far as armies attracting only right-wing psychos. Well, I think anyone can be fashioned into that in the right circumstances. Like most other state armed forces in history, and still today, the ADF is certainly a known bastion of homophobia, sex-based discrimination, racism and bullying that seems unamenable to cultural change. I don’t think the reasons for that are too hard to figure out.
People become modern volunteer professional soldiers for the money, to test their courage, for the kit, to find out what it is like to kill someone and to have somebody try to kill you, for the camaraderie, to impress women and to get away from them, for patriotism and the desire to belong to a team. A lot of reasons.
Just a thought - don’t the police usually turn up AFTER the violent attack has occurred and the physical damage has already been done?
Sorry, Razor. It’s the former inner-city experience showing through!
Oh and the first and last time I called on a copper to help me he stalked me for months asking for a friggin’ date, in uniform, mind you, at my workplace. Oh, the humiliation!
Makes you wonder why US tax payers aren’t demanding that the Bush Administration ceases its niggardly approach to expenditure on the war.
But seriously:
1. Much of the money granted under the Marshall Plan had to be spent on US goods.
2. The US economy in 1945 comprised 50% of the world economy. Now the US economy is under significant pressure and comprises about 15% of the world economy.
3. Within a couple of years of the beginning ofthe Marshll Plan Europe had been stabilised. And Iraq? Well, comparisons are quite odious.
Does anyone still believe Bush actually meant that Nelson Mandella is/was dead?
My brother-in-de-facto-law just signed up for Duntroon for none of the above reasons.
Very bright kid, the most violent thing he’s ever done is play World of Warcraft, and he says the thing that most makes him want to serve is helping people [after seeing ADF in Timor Leste as a youngster]. There was no talking him out of it.
Who ever did Razor? He said the words “Nelson Mandela is dead” which is fucked-up enough.
Which makes perfect sense for a continent no longer with the capacity to produce its own goods, nor with the foreign exchange to purchase them.
Is your point that the US economy is in worse shape now than in 1945? Is it less able to support its Iraq efforts than it was able to fight WWII?
Depends on what you mean by “in worse shape”.
People joined the CP, entered the convent or the seminary, became Mafia or members of Hitler Youth for much the same reason.
We’re a funny mob and infinitely illusional. Probably our saving grace. In the long run.
Jinmaro - gratuitous Godwin violation aside, don’t you think it’s good that some people go into the military with good intentions? And perhaps possible that they occasionally get the opportunity to make good on them?
This kid basically sees the military as a great big infrastructure provider and peacekeeper - he’s not stupid and doesn’t expect or want to see much genuine action.
Yes, that was exactly my point. I don’t judge any of those things, FDB that 18 year olds choose to do. Hell, most of my best friends did one or other - um, er except for Hitler Youth –, but chose so at a certain point in their young lives because they saw that as the best way for them, at the time, “to help people” - just like you said. Most of them were disillusioned down the track, but that’s life.
If you mean “not in worse shape at all, but in fact several times stronger” then you’d be right.
If you’re happy with arguing both sides of the argument, then congratulations, you win.
If you’re conceding, then thanks. Very gracious of you.
People are going to ask questions if we keep answering each other with questions.
What questions?
While I do not respect them, I can still feel compassion for the innocent young grunts who die in Iraq believing that they are doing something truly noble and worthwhile, because that is how they have been brought up and that is what they have been led to believe. The same goes for all well-meaning soldiers in all wars. no doubt there were even some very well-meaning Nazis in the Storm Trooper brigades.
Ignorance is bliss. If you can die for a cause like that, good luck to you. But anyone who can venture beyond ignorance has a responsibility to understand exactly why they are killing people, or helping others to kill people.
I suggest that rather than seeing the world primarily through a right-left political prism, we start with a divide between those who advocate violence and those who do not. In the long run, anyone who remains on the pacifist side of that divide, whether right or left wing, is infinitely preferable to anyone who ventures beyond it.
PS: Razor, in response to your earlier comment, I have been in some fairly dangerous situations and emerged unscathed, without any police help, thank you very much. An ex-con with a tattooed face once told a friend he was scared of me, because my calm demeanor led him to assume that I always had a razor handy! Dogs can smell fear, they say.
FDB - your relative will probably have one of the best experiences of his life, make friends that he is truely ready to die for, and set a base for anything he wants to do in life - military or civilian.
I think it is less than 3% of applicants make it into RMC.
Congratulations to him.
Tell him to aim for the highest - Royal Australian Armoured Corps. Second class ride beats a first class walk any day.
Gandhi:
Hard as you may find it to accept, many many Australian ARMED forces personnel share that view. Yes, we were trained in the controlled and legitimized use of lethal and destructive force …. and prayed fervently that we would never have to use that force because we knew only too well what really happened if that force ever had to be used. It is the potential, not the application, of such force that is best used to stop armed conflict happening in the first place. Of course young soldiers crave excitement and adventure but every one I served with disliked excitement that came at the cost of the life of some poor mother’s son, regardless of his race or creed. There are some armies around the world that fail to weed out psychopaths and perverts before they complete recruit training [basic miitary training] and you’ll find such vermin aplenty is Hollywood’s screaming “action” fantasy movies too …. but not in the ADF.
Now, back to Mandela: for me he was only a former terrorist and a well-known long-term political prisoner. It was only when he became involved with South Africa’s Truth And Reconcilliation Commission that he won, and continues to have, my respect.