…the Newspoll is also apparently coming early this week.
According to the Newspoll survey, there was no real change in the two-party-preferred support for Labor, with a 12-point lead last weekend of 56 to 44 per cent, compared with 55 to 45 per cent mid-September. The two-party-preferred support is essentially consistent with most of the Newspoll surveys since the beginning of June, with Labor in front by between 10 and 12 percentage points.
Primary support for the Coalition slipped back from the 41 per cent of two weeks ago to 39 per cent, while Labor’s was virtually unchanged on 48 per cent.
As to the mystical “narrowing” which is confidently expected by “The Prime Minister and his ministers”, and the reasons why we’re still waiting for the campaign proper to start, see my post on the 2001 election campaign (where the Coalition’s lead in Newspoll fell 7.3 points on primaries between the election being called and the last poll before the day) and particularly Possum’s feast of data on every election going back to 1993.
For those interested in the Shanahan spin and the evolution of the “media narrative”, it’s here. Always useful to get more confirmation from Dennis himself that the only point of all the commentary on Newspoll is to influence the inside the beltway political dynamic. Now we’re given the amazing revelation that not even MPs (who aren’t smart enough to own their own polls) understand Newspoll like the News Ltd punditariat do:
This goes to the point of Newspoll surveys becoming an end in themselves. Unlike the pollsters, strategists and leaders, most MPs don’t really have a clue about polling, even in their own seat. Newspoll’s authority imbues it with an influence far beyond its actual two-weekly survey results because that’s what the Labor and Coalition MPs use as a foundation for their attitude towards the election and their leadership.
Update: More at The Poll Bludger.
Another update: Graphs and comment at Oz Politics while Possum deconstructs Groundhog Day.
I can’t believe Shanahan actually said that.
I actually think he might be big noted himself a bit. Are politicians really stupid enough to believe ‘analysis’ that even a three year old would spot as obvious bullshit? well ok….
On one hand, it’s a shame so many good minds are spending their time criticising the GG’s nonsense. In terms of political/intellectual use, we are well past the point of diminishing marginal returns for such a critique. It’s kind of like doing literary deconstructon on the output of a monkey with a typewriter.
But on the other hand, mocking the GG is sooooo damn fun…
Agree with both points, David.
I still think the most astonishing admission Mitchell and Shanahan made was that they played Newspoll to influence leadership crises (and even provoke them) and the evidence that they’re using their spin to act as players keeps on building as they respond to criticism (largely from the blogosphere and other online media such as Crikey). If the point of The Australian is to influence the political dynamic, I think some obfuscation of that is necessary for it to be effective, and their egos have led them into laying bare the nature of the beast this year. I suspect Rupe’ll be questioning the value he gets for his money if the Ruddslide eventuates.
Yeah I agree. That quote is remarkable. Their wounded egos have led them to say some astonishing things.
If I can be a wanker for a moment, a touch of Freud and Bourdieu will do nicely.
In the face of upstart bloggers and the crumbling of the Liberal government, the GGs are stricken with anxiety (of castration dimensions!).
As a psychical defence, they fall back on explicitly stating their symbolic authority. It’s what a crumbling Father does when he’s got nothing better. No justification on the level of reasons, it’s we are right because we own it.
This is not a good tactic, for the whole efficacy of symbolic capital lies in its misrecognition. That’s the practical purpose of bourgeois manners. The powerful don’t harp on about their own power. When they do, it’s a very yucky, ungraceful look, and usually a hysterical reaction to losing power.
That quote from Shamahan.
Thanks to Howard we now have perpetual campaigning, not to mention that we have been in an election period for weeks, and Rudd continues to hold steady. Call me stupid but all I’m seeing is the Govt and PM suffering, but then again what would I know, I’m just a blogger who doesn’t own a polling company.
Milne’s now relying on the arts community to lead Howard out of the wilderness. The GG is going troppo! They have delusions of grandeur and need to realise that most Australians are not silly enough to pay for this drivel. Have a laugh for free by reading it online!
Not only do MPs not understand polling, voters don’t understand elections. In fact, nobody in Australia understands anything at all about politics apart from a small gifted group of wankers who live in a padded cell at News Ltd, from which they can plot the defeat of the up-themselves amateurs who think they can read the polls just because they write a blog.
The conclusion is self-evident: they must be allowed to appoint the government while the rest of us get on with our mundane lives.
In the mean time they should stop releasing actual polling data, which is obviously confusing the hell out of everyone, and just write regular stories telling us how their proprietary mood-of-the-people machine has proved conclusively that the Rudd honeymoon is over and once people actually think about the issues they overwhelmingly favour three more years of Team Aspiration Nation.
Given Sham-I-am’s attitude, I wonder if he would agree that those who “own” other polls like AC Nielsen are also imbued with astonishing powers of insight, and thus also entitled to shape our nation’s political future on a whim and a fancy?
Maybe all these professional polling gurus should just move into Parliament House, and save us all the money we waste on a political system?
Maybe Dennis should just come right out with it and write an article about Uncle Rupert’s extraordinary manipulation of Australian politics, from within the newsrooms, within the party rooms, within the board rooms, and even within the polling company conference rooms.
Maybe it’s time for a Larvatus Prodeo poll, which would imbue us all (or maybe just Mark?) with the power to ram speculation down the nation’s throat?
Its funny - all empirical evidence (eg ‘who do you think will win’ polls, and betting markets) suggests the average punter understands the polls far better than you Dennis, and your circle-jerk coterie of poll-owning , gatekeeping wankers posing as ‘experts’.
You are all heading for a gross humiliation, GG. Turn around now, save some dignity! There is no bounce, there is no evidence to support any “mounting view” on anyting other than electoral trouble for yer man.
How often do we have to discuss opinion polls that keep telling us the same thing. Instead we should be demanding that Howard calls the election immediately. We have the extraordinary spectacle of the Deputy Prime Minister having to deny, in all seriousness, that the PM is not afraid of the electorate. There are 12 possible reasons on ‘Labor View from Broome’ why Howard hasn’t called the election yet. Have your say. Is he gutless or aren’t the entrails quite right yet? The media are virtually silent - they have a vested interest in government advertising continuing to flow. Send Howard a message! Time for the real poll.
Mark,
Q. For suggested LP Poll:
Who do you think will win the 2007 Federal election?
A. ALP.
Kevin - We’ll probably keep discussing opinion polls till we’re bored with it. It tends to be the way things are done around here.
Still, I’m getting pretty bored with the Shanmeister’s routine. Hopefully his boss is too. I really hope Rupert cleans out the cobwebs at the GG after the election. It’s just getting embarrasing now.
Does anyone else think that the Shamaham might have been one of those kids who would take the bat an ball home if they began to lose the game?
Senator Coonan is all class, apparently she thinks that the voters may not have thought through their decision to support Labor. [link]
Are the Libs getting that delusional that they actually believe that voters haven’t really thought about why they might want to switch to Labor? I mean, this faux campaign has been going on forever and the voters have had plenty of chances to change their minds.
In an effort to establish my own credibility, I have set up a poll asking:
Vote now!
“The Australian people really do need to think very carefully about the choices they will make,” Senator Coonan told ABC radio today.
Patronising, sanctimonious bullshit.
Possum’s latest effort.
Mick as the subprime minister pointed out so perceptively, the contemporary voter’s brain was ground too fine. Consequently things take a long time to percolate.
Even as I write, people enjoying their Labour Day holiday are pausing the grand final replay to ask “Hang on, did someone say this new Labor chap had dinner with Brian Burke?”
The APEC Bounce will arrive well before Easter, mark my words.
Clearly, the voters have already decided. I expect no shift over the “campaign”- except perhaps a point to Rudd for comprehensively winning the campaign and converting the small number of genuine undecideds.
As for Coonan, what makes her think “careful thought” will aid her side?
I have thought widespread distraction, or a sudden outburst of pure idiocy and ignorance would be their best punt.
So, Ken, by your reasoning sometime around Christmas a family will be digging into a plum pudding and someone will say, “Good Lord, did you hear that this union-loving Labor fellow went to a strip clug in New York!”.
Well, at least the Libs are keeping on message in one respect: they still refuse to believe that anyone with half a brain could contemplate voting Labor. Maybe we should suggest labotomies for the entire front bench so they can join the real world…
You need to understand the Liberal-GG meaning system. The Liberal Party is the definition of careful thought, as it is for electoral success.
I expected the GG to say that Rudd’s stocks have been damaged because he predicted a Port Adelaide premiership.
Why don,t Shamahan ask Howard why he is to frightened to call the Election,maybe Textor and Co are telling him to make the most of the Big white car cause its all over now baby blue
Guido: ah, but Howard picked Manly.
Anyway, at this rate it looks like he’s wishing he could postpone the election until the A-League Grand Final in Feburary…
“Well, I read… I think it was in Piers Akerman’s column… that Kevin Rudd raped a young girl in 1989 and then sent Union Bosses around to her house to force her to withdraw the complaint. After that Brian Burke organised for the documents to be shredded and Therese Rein stole her wages after she got her first job. If it wasn’t for Rudd’s dodgy ticker, it would have been even worse for her. I hear he was about to lure her onto the Kokoda Track and then abandon her to the natives, but he got an attack of angina after being thrown out of a New York lap dancing club and couldn’t follow through. The man clearly has a glass jaw, I reckon.”
BB. Heh! Rudds on his last legs, you can tell.
And Rudds’ deputy has crept from underneath the bed.
http://www.magshop.com.au/Popup_Image.htm?ImageID=115
Labor has to be finished with a front page like that.
Another update: Graphs and comment at Oz Politics while Possum deconstructs Groundhog Day.
BB, surely you can weave Bob Collins somewhere into that story.
Joe 2…that could refer to the colour of her hair.
I have given some “careful thought” to the Howard Government’s inaction on the IT and Telco sector and Coonan’s performance. Here are my conclusions:
Coonan doesn’t understand technology and the importance of the sector to Australia. She is therefore incapable of managing her portfolio, as evidence by Australia’s slide in broadband penetration, our slow broadband, and the relentless march of IT sector jobs off shore.
Coonan, after doing nothing, has been stung into action by Labor’s (reasonable) broadband policy.
The tender process for the Australia-wide broadband roll out has been compromised by Coonan, hence Telstra’s complaint about it.
The Government’s new broadband strategy is the wrong one - they have selected the a small market share and questionable coverage technology. They will also completely duplicate what will be available via Telstra’s Next G network - which is a colossal waste of time, money and resources.
Australia has competitive advantage in IT services - but the Government doesn’t realise this or support it. Meanwhile they sign up government contracts with Microsoft to make Bill Gates richer and send our money off shore - when it could go to local services and employment.
The Howard government sold off Telstra for ideological reasons, and have therefore now lost control of service delivery. We are now seeing the chickens coming home to roost.
In summary, just another conservative SNAFU, and another nail in their coffin, irrespective of what what spin the GG puts out.
Just on the article by Milne stating that the Arts community should support the government, there is just a single word to indicate why they will do no such thing:
Sedition
Here’s a thought. The two great pre-election indicators are polls and punters. Shanahan says News Ltd understands polls coz they own one, and that imbues the GG editorial team with the authority to dictate interpretations. So… why doesn’t Uncle Rupert open a book on the election? Surely that is not just the ultimate show of faith in his loyal scribes, but also clearly underwrites his faith in their professional judgment.
Dennis and his friends at The Sun King’s Shanabet Co. can offer odds of (say) $1.10 for a Howard victory against $12.55 for a Rudd win.
Sounds fair?
Gandhi, a great idea whose time will never come. The Government Gazette. and co. know as well as we do that what they advocate will not last for five minutes under real world scrutiny. Your suggestion highlights how ludicrous their corrupt position is.
What I don’t understand is if the GG are using Newspoll to influence the great unwashed into making the “right” decision why don’t they just skew, sorry, “correct’ the figures. Call it seasonal adjustment or something.
tssk,
The EHMs go in first,t he jackals only come in later if they are needed.
Today Sham-I-am has gone a bit punch drunch and is taking airswings at Swan. Peter Martin recently debunked the GG’s comedy routine about the Treasurer’s role.
Well BB, I read that Julia Gillard was a communist lesbian, who not long after leaving University got a job indoctrinating children with marxism and lesbianism, and then she went on to become a lawyer, working for a firm that gave money to union bosses to pass on to ALP candidates so that they could tell lies to the electorate. Then when the secret commie cell told her to go into politics, she dyed her hair red, to give a secret signal to those in the comie cells, and got a front bench position, thanks to the influence of the wreckers who secretly fund the ALP.
Then she stopped being a lesbian and started to have affairs with men who could help her career, because she is ambitious to be Prime Minister and Treasurer, all at the same time, so she can steal all the money from the battlers, and she had an operation so she couldn’t have children, on the orders of the ’secret cell’ and her boyfriend, who is a hairdresser, is really gay, and they are both plotting to make gay marriage compulsory for all the kiddies who will be forced to denounce their parents to the politically correct thought police.
Well, I reckon it’s true.