As speculation grows that we’ll be speculating for weeks yet as to when John Howard will call an election, campaigning is already well underway - in the marginal seats, at least.
Here in Wentworth, we received our introductions to candidates for The Greens and the ALP weeks ago and sitting MP Malcolm Turnbull sent out a multi-page newsletter, just in case we didn’t know who he was. And of course there was the Cousins/Gunns brouhaha.
Now the phoney campaign has started in earnest.
Yesterday I swung by Bondi Beach markets and immediately noticed the Kevin07 stall out front - with balloons, placards, leaflets, etc. All the signs of an election stall.
Today came the first true campaigning flyer through the letterbox. I assume it’s from the ALP because it’s in yellow and black, though the words “Labor”, “ALP” and “Newhouse” are conspicuously absent. Instead, it’s all about Turnbull.
I’m curious if different versions of this flyer are appearing in other marginals around Australia or if we are a special target.
Any other signs of pre-campaign campaigning at ground level?
Yep.
There’s a billboard just as you leave Melbourne Airport stating that most of the Labor front bench are ex-union bosses, and asking something along the lines of “who’s going to be giving the orders in a Labor government?”
I actually blogged about the web site that goes along with this campaign earlier today. In my neighbourhood, I learned about it through a radio ad.
Authorised by Michael Forshaw, so it’s an ALP ad, yeah. That photo of the distressed Australian Working Family is the same one used in some of the ACTU material, I think.
I saw a truck with a giant billboard driving through the heart of Kevin Rudd’s electorate - the slogan in meter high letters…
“Save Democracy…
Dump Labor”
Yeah right. What was I thinking, of course I should continue to vote for the party in power - that is the only way precious, precious, democracy can be preserved.
I live in a marginal (Macquarie) and there’s barely any advertising at all. Kerry Bartlett (Liberal MP) sent a letter with some spurious story about how our state MP Phil Koperberg and the ‘State Labor Government’ were planning to close down a minor local hospital, and we got a glossy brochure updating us on how he’s been Getting Results or something, but no inundation of scare-tacticky fliers or anything. Yet.
Bryn,
If Koperberg is your state MP then I assume you are in the Blue Mountains. I suspect you’ll find that Bartlett and Bob Debus have been taking their campaign further west, to the new part of Macquarie - from Lithgow to Bathurst. Since that area previously belonged to Calare (with the Independent Peter Andren as MP), it’s effectively up for grabs and it also tends to lean toward Labor. It’s also served by regional TV stations and other media, which is likely to be cheaper for doing some seat-specific advertising. I’m sure your flyers are coming, but I suspect you’ll get relatively less attention since Bartlett and Debus are both already known to you.
Dare I say it, but that sort of voting record ad is a very American tactic. It’s interesting in that it focusses on Turnbull as a local member rather than as a Minister or a Liberal. It might suggest that he’s got a reasonable following and they’re trying to tar him with the Howard government brush.
Mark, that’s exactly what I thought when I heard the radio ad and saw the web site. If you visit the web site, you’ll see that they are using it on every Coalition MP. They are also clipping and presenting quotes from Coalition candidates who are not current members.
I would expect these flyers to turn up in any electorate that has a Coalition candidate - it links directly from the candidate to the policy platform in a way that is seen much more frequently in US politics than here.
It might suggest that he’s got a reasonable following
Mark, even though it’s only a 2.5% marginal, I wouldn’t be surprised if Turnbull keeps the seat. I think he is liked and respected and has managed to put distance between himself and the government on issues like gay rights.
That’s interesting, thanks, Ptobias. If the Liberals and Liberal candidates are running away from their party (and the lack of Howard mentions/photos and the word “Liberal” on propaganda suggests they are doing this quite deliberately), then Labor should logically respond by tying them back into it.
Suz, yep, that margin is a tad misleading because of King’s run last time.
To clarify my previous comment, the propaganda doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about Turnbull per se, though, if as Ptobias suggests it’s being used much more widely. Just that he’s in danger.
Suz, yep, that margin is a tad misleading because of King’s run last time.
I’m not sure how King’s run would have affected the current estimated margin, as there’s been a redistribution since the last election. Some less rich, much gayer and pro-ALP areas of Darlinghurst, Kings Cross and south Paddington/Queen’s Park have been added to the seat. So notionally it has become a more marginal seat - I think the margin was about 4-5% when he won last time, now it’s said to be 2.5. Still, I have heard progressive voters say admiring things about Turnbull - not that they’ll vote for him, but he isn’t detested.
I’m really sceptical about the value of these hack-job negative websites (the ALP has another one focusing on Howard, can’t remember the address). What swinging voter actually goes to them? The feeling I get is that it just preaches to the converted, rather like johnhowardlies.com last election - where the media was all over the fact that it got 100000 unique hits in a day or something, but the vast vast majority of them would have been rusted-on Howard haters, not people whose votes the ALP actually needed to get.
…. yes, where its actually conceivable that a congressman could vote against his/her party on a bill as crucial as Workchoices.
Shame they had to go negative. Very disappointing stuff.
Stand by for the Southern Ocean Cetaceans for Truth: Interviews with humpback whales stating that Malcolm had his fingers crossed when he called on Japan to stop ’scientific’ whaling.
I’m in Kooyong, so it is going to be a very long time before I see anything. Unless they’ve been putting it in the local paper which I haven’t seen in weeks. I’ve just come back from Tasmania though, and it was impossible to move around Burnie, Devonport, Stanley, and to a lesser extent, Launceston, without falling over very unattractive photos of candidates from both major parties.
Michael Johnson and whoever the Labor candidate is - hmm, that’s not a good sign, although it could just be my advancing years - have been out waving at the traffic on Moggill Road for the last few days. Johnson often has a coterie of supporters, the Labor bloke’s on his pat.
Im generally against these negative Seppo tactics. I tend to think they’ll be universally counter productive here.
And as Cliff points out - ‘who voted how’ is hardly some freakin big surprise here.
Here’s something a bit more positive - a TV ad being run by Bob Debus, who is contesting Macquarie for Labor.
At the same time, I don’t entirely object to negative campaigning - provided it is on issues of substance rather than character, and provided it is accompanied by a positive and clearly articulated message about the alternative policy platform.
In the case of these “voting record” ads, it seems fair enough to raise awareness that a vote for one’s local candidate is a vote for their party’s policies, warts and all. They might choose to restrict the issues they campaign on to the ones that will be well-received in their electorate - their opposition has a right to remind the electorate of the other things they have stood for.
Just checked, Wentworth was won for the Libs by 5.5% last time with Peter King (Ind) being a spanner in the works. It’s 2.5% this time.
“Howard’s Liberals” has a nice ring to it, possibly even more effective than the “union bosses” tag.
It ties the libs to Howard and highlights the “leadership issues”. Also any attempt to demonstrate that you are not one of Howard’s Liberals eg. Malcolm Turnbull can be portrayed as division and disunity.
Suz, I think most of the psepho types who’ve tried to estimate the margin taking the King factor out of the equation have suggested it’s around 4-6%.
That’s also taking into account the redistribution, I should have added.
Same ad’s gone up on the Burwood Highway at Bennettswood - just a bloody shame I’ve got nothing else to look at when waiting for my bus home from work.
I don’t think that the ‘union bosses’ tag’s going to get as much traction as the Libs would expect: events such as Beaconsfield have allowed the unions to display their compassionate side to great effect, while their ministry to workers in the wake of SerfChoices have helped to reduce the impression of unions as the roaming packs of thugs that the Right have tried to foster. And, of course, the average worker now understands that unions vs. bosses is basically a case of irresistable force vs. immovable object - the struggle continues, from both sides.
Alex: the whole “unions are evil greedy bastards” meme is so 1980s. When was the last big piece of industrial action that actually pissed people off? In Victoria, probably the tram driver’s strike of 1990?
On saturday morning we ( Griffith, West End) had the K07 team set up on one side of the main intersection of the village, and the libs candidate on the other.
He came over to nervously say hello to K07, but they pretty much froze him out. Mind you they were just local branch members, hardly campaign specialists Sturmabteilung from Sussex Street, and the Lib candidate is probably as close as they’ve ever come to an actual candidate.
Kev certainly hasn’t been to a local branch meeting this year, I asked ‘em. Apparently he’s only been in brisbane for weddings, birthdays, and in depth mass media interviews with the smell of fresh cut astroturf.
We get truck signs wheezing up and down Barista Boulevarde going on about !! Saving Noosa!!! Go figure.
I agree that there’d be little fear of industrial action these days, but I think the message is more narrowly targetted - to owners and employees of small business, and the self-employed and contractors.
It’s quiet. Too damn quiet.
“Wait till those infernal drums start up again Carruthers.”
“No massa, drums are good. When they stop it’s bad, very bad.”
“Why? They’re about to attack?”
“Oh no, when drums stop, it’s time for bass solo.”
I’m in Bennelong, and over half my post is now political material, even more than bills.
Strangely though, there is no negative material. It’s all either pro Howard Liberal or Pro Rudd-McKew (Labor is rarely mentioned). Material from neither side acknowledges the other side or even mentions the election.
Mark, that truck you saw doesn’t even make sense:
How do you dump Labor when they are not even in government?
I saw a big billboard in an industrial part of Brisbane with a fake-smiling John Howard and a quote from him about how Aussie workers have never had it so good. I think it’s been there for a while…
No signs of much happening down here on the Gold Coast. I assume we are still considered “safe” Liberal territory? (sob)
I think Johnson is well known for rustling up support perhaps the other guy should get himself a Hong Kong phone book so he can compete.
Focus groups must tell Labor and Liberal that politics stinks for many voters.
I have a business card from my local state MP Bob Stensholt with a prominent green swatch on it and says he is the “State member for Burwood”. No mention of Labor at all. You would think he was a Greens MP.
I live in Kooyong too. The Greens have letterboxed a leaflet on climate change and Labor has letterboxed a local candidate leaflet (has Labor on it) that promotes Rudd (the future) and attacks Howard (the past).
The usual mail barrage from Petro hasn’t started yet. He uses his parliamentary mailing allowance every campaign to direct mail out the electorate 2 or 3 times every election when he awakes from his 2 year snooze. The joys of incumbency.
Crikey have posted a couple of articles saying Labor might just win the seat (9% swing needed), and the Greens vote has risen a lot in 2001 and 2004. It now has the 10th highest Greens primary vote in the country, and is no longer “safe liberal” so things are changing.
Being in Armidale, New England, its a very safe Independent seat. People up here got sick of the trail of ineffectual National party members who suceeded Sinclair (who was very very good) and switched to Windsor. No material in the letter boxes yet. There may have been some pollies at Markets in the Mall on the last Sunday of the month but I didn’t go up.
Will be going up the Mall the first Saturday after the election is called to distribute Socialist Alliance climate change manifesto, and may go up next Saturday to hand out some electoral material for SA if I get some from Sydney.
steve: “perhaps the other guy should get himself a Hong Kong phone book so he can compete.” ….
or get Kev to come and give a talk about possible internet-mediated Aust-China futures, “Australia: 2 hrs into China’s future”, that sort of thing … in mandarin of course.
The local candidate has an economics degree, and a background in IT in education.
He should be able to join the dots about us having competitive advantage for delivering real-time (financial?) online education services into China ( and east asia generally ) as an example of a bandwidth-enabled export industry, tying in labor’s education-revolution and bandwidth champion brands.
If he got KPMG Kev to give it his seal of approval, the chinese smart money in Ryan just might notice a bit of forward thinking.
A big poster of a smiling Christopher Pyne appeared on Kensington Road in Adelaide last week. As we drove past my partner commented that it was a ‘tempting target…’ . A couple of days later his pearly whites have been blackened and a scrawl too difficult to read while driving has been added.
Not guilty, by the way…
Those are up in Sydney as well. They’re actually ALP billboards, masquerading as Liberal ones to make Howard look out of touch.
I’m in South Melbourne, and during the recent state by-election I received at least 10 ‘information letters’ from the ALP bagging the Greens, one of which was the ‘dirty tricks’ letter from a ‘concerned resident’ of East Melbourne who ended up being on the ALP payroll.
Quite apart from the dirty tricks letter which was, well, dirty… that many letters with the same message just made me feel like Big Brother was telling me how to vote. I quite happily gave my vote elsewhere as a result.
Tony Abbott appears to have fallen for the old hoary Queensland Tory chestnut of running hospitals from local boards. When this was last tried under conservative Governments in this state it was a great old source of corruption with conservative mates winning contracts and ripping off the community at will.
I’m in Berowra. Hardly anything political arrives in the mailbox. The last was a routine “Your Member At Work” flyer from Ruddock two weeks ago.
Sigh… they obviously think they have this one in the bag.
I’m in Bennelong. Maxine McKew has put out a couple of brochures, the incumbent has written us a letter (on Strain Government letterhead, not Liberal Party) which is a salad of focus-group phrases and occasionally shuffles up and down the near-deserted local mall. Both have attended local fetes.
McKew has run the more professional outfit so far.
- Mark
True, and I absolutely can’t understand why the Libs are doing it - these people are rusted on Coalition voters, not swinging voters.
I reckon they’ve probably adopted the theme from a focus group or two, illustrating the big problems with focus groups - that they can be very unrepresentative of the population, and that their results are easily interpreted in any way that suits the convenor’s prejudices.
I’m currently in Higgins and haven’t seen much action really.
But I’m moving this weekend to Kooyong - so wondering whether to change my address on the electoral role. Which vote would be more likely to help lose the libs a seat? Against Costello or Georgio?
m
The problem about negative campaigning is that it DOES WORK,even though we more sensitive, and sensible types may not like it. Look at what the Libs did to Mark Latham and the ‘L plate’ ads. The interest ones were pretty effective too.
I just hope that people don’t get too caught up in this presidential stuff and forget that they don’t actually vote for JWH or KRudd.
I just wish it was all over - as I’ve said on other blogs - this is doing my head in!!
Oh yeah forgot the bit about the actual topic. In Greenway, it’s supposed to be safe Liberal, but it’s hard to tell the feeling at ground level. We’ve had no camapaign stuff from the Libs, but an introductory letter from our ALP candidate. He’s also out and about all the time. No idea what Louise Markus is doing. Perhaps she is working the top end of the electorate around the Hawkesbury -where the State Liberal member has come out against Nuclear Power
Bushfire, I think that could change next time - Labor have made big inroads in the state seat of Hornsby over the past few elections, and Ruddock won’t stick around in Opposition.
There’s also a phoney ad driving around Canberra:
http://michael.ellerman.id.au/blog/2007/09/18/1/index.html
Talking about phoney campaigns…
I once saw a bumper sticker on a beautiful old Kingswood cruising around Canberra that read “Lib PMs are slicker”. I said it to myself five times before all became clear…
Danny: I’ll jump out and pass your suggestion on next time I’m driving past.
suz,
Local versions of the flyer in question (featuring sitting Coalition MPs or candidates) have been out and about since at least the beginning of last month.
Page electorate on the NSW North Coast is having a quiet laugh, because the targeted Nationals candidate went to the media and complained that a union was running a scare campaign by including his photograph on the flyer.
Its really something when even the candidate thinks he’s scary!
“Those are up in Sydney as well. They’re actually ALP billboards, masquerading as Liberal ones to make Howard look out of touch.”
- It was reported that an ALP truck bearing that billboard was recently in Eden-Monaro. After decamping for Sydney the truck was pulled over by the coppers, who sternly advised the occupants of the laws against displaying obscene material. The ALP apparatchiks were baffled until they stepped out and saw that an enraged Queanbeyan citizen, under the impression that it was a Liberal Party ad, had scrawled “F***ING WANKER!!” across Howard’s photo.
Liberals are slicker
- produced by “The Chaser” magazine in Sydney in response to that awful Mark Latham’s horrid insults flung at that nice Mr Howard