A weekly open thread where, at the mercy of your election-year mania, you may discuss various breaking politicking news that is not on topic for other current threads.
64 Responses to “Election Speculation”
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Election week 45: So. Very. Tired. Abbotts “sleepwalk” comment was a coded giveaway to the Liberal election strategy: bore everybody with an interminable wait while making sure you shore up the idiot vote by stirring up a bit of good ol’ fear and racism. It is a nightmare that has no end. Pinch me when it’s over.
Pretty much everything’s been said at this point hasn’t it?
What’ll be the impact of the pulp mill decision? Will have a post up on greensblog on it ASAP.
Indeed, Leinad: until the election is finally announced all we can wait for is the next “hey, look at that” from the Coalition so that we can raise more eyebrows at the depths to which they are prepared to sink.
Too many people are totally over the election already. Every scare du jour, while it may indeed shore up the useful idiots who vote their fear, also shores up the resolve of the recalcitrants who just want to punish Howard for dragging this out for so long.
I reckon the Coalition is transforming many more undecideds into recalcitrants than into fearful idiots.
Well, I’m eagerly awaiting the first eggs my new chookies will lay – due around about November 24 according to our calculations.
evil bunny
bloody unionist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5_PSAGIkh4
I would need to read some expert opinion on the stringency of the conditions which Turnbull is attaching to the pulp mill. However I would propose, as one hypothesis for discussion, that Turnbull’s decision is designed to, amongst other things, relieve him of ultimate political responsibility for whether the mill eventually goes ahead and place it on the shoulders of other stakeholders (i.e. Gunns and the various opponents of the mill). If Gunns spits the dummy (as the Wesley Vale joint venturers did in 1989 in response to a not dissimilar stance by the Hawke Labor government), Turnbull can claim that he tried to get the thing up on a “balanced”, “best practice” basis and it was the company’s fault for not wanting to go the extra mile.
Can’t wait for the Healthchoices policy of Tony Abbott to get a hold so we can see the Tory corruption that comes with awarding contracts by local Hospital Boards. I’ve seen it before and I never thought I would see it again. Bet the Nats will love this policy.
Paul, I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there. An interesting thing will be how long it will take Gunns to settle its mind on what it wants to do.
There is also the politically useful role of the Chief Scientist in all this. A place to hang responsibility for any environmental criticisms of the decision perhaps.
There’s a separate thread on Turnbull’s decision now:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/04/turnbull-approves-pulp-mill/
Put $50 on the libs at $3.
Money where my mouth is and very happy looking forward to that pay day.
The Seat of Bass. Anyone recall the byelection in the winter of our discontents, 1975? A spectacular result, nay a show-stopper!
Those Taswegian voters can SWING with the best of us….
50 bucks?
Funny, I pictured your mouth as being bigger than that, Razor.
Katz – how much are you in for? KRuddy is cert, so are you laying down a grand?
Make it 10K.
Razor, are they fixed odds or is it a totalisator? Who are you on with? At $3 I wouldn’t mind some of that action.
I expect more cabinet ministerial decisions that are designed to un-nerve those voters previously swinging to Labor. The Andrews decision on African migrants is clearly one of those. The Nelson agreement on Australia funding a US Defense satellite could be seen as another.
Liam – fixed price – IAS Bet.
Pablo – I doubt most voters understand the current limitations of our use of the Singaporean owned Optus satelite for defence communications or the severely limited number of channels we have. Greta news, but not really a war winner, so to speak.
I reckon you’d have got MUCH better odds closer to the date Razor.
Razor, I reckon ‘KRuddy’ is getting old. Why not adopt an internal ALP label? I mean, Brandis’ ‘Lying Rodent’ stuck to Howard quite well. And ‘Filthy Liberal’ will only get more and more apt as Rudd’s prime ministership matures.
BBB
Razor, you really are a mug punter. Not only are you betting with your heart not your head, you could have got $3.15 on Betfair.
When you’re done throwing away your money on tge election, there’s a big rock in central Australia I’d like to sell you.
Spiros – I’ve got an account with IAS and Centrebet and couldn’t be buggered setting up a another one. The time saved is worth more than $7.50 to me.
Good Point BBB. Rudd was known as “Dr Death” in the ALP in Qld, back when he was offsiding for Wayne Goss.
Being an internal party name, its use will match in a very bipartisan way the use of “rodent” & such derivations.
I think I might switch to Filthy.
Looks like a November Interest rate rise is almost certain.
Good link, there, steve. Interest rates up, you reckon.
Peter Martin has a great site.
Still , as an ‘election speculator’ you would need to ask from what he says, why the big over the top spend up in Canberra/ACT , in particular?
What is the current price for a document shredder at Harvey-Norman in Canberra, relative to the general norm, for instance? Or the price for ’soft goods’, in Fyshwick, when that gov. credit card may expire very soon.
Katz and Razor:
If the election is delayed somewhat, do your bets still stand ….and in currency as it is valued in early October 2007?
Seems Howard has lost the media spotlight over the past week. He appears occasionally in some country town or shopping centre or nursing home, looking a bit seedy and confused, while the big issues of the day, the pulp mill, health etc are being argued out by his ministers.
Guess this is a cunning plan by the Libs to show the team is working.
But I wonder when someone is going to ask who is actually running the country? Technically speaking, we are not in an election period, so we must suppose the whole governance thing is running on auto-pilot. Anyone can do that Mr Howard.
The ALP is now clearly targeting the hapless Abbott, very smart. He is flailing around looking reactive and ridiculous on health policy, while Rudd is getting the runs on the board.
The pulp mill has wedged the ALP into a corner, with third parties well in play, including the amazing Geoffrey Cousins, who is now going to target the banks (follow the money). But that’s perhaps the best place to be, because the green vote will come home anyway (except in tasmania apparently).
GG has this article on who is behind the latest mudslinging.
Good to see the Federal Govt copping it over hospital funding. Here’s your real problem – decline in Commonwealth expenditure. http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/05/2051411.htm
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/05/2051411.htm
Good to see the Federal govt copping it over reduced hospital expenditure – here lies the real problem.
that comment was so good I said it twice!
No, it was a public service name, not an ALP name.
Lefty E
Ya said it twice with minor variations – ever considered runnin’ for office? Ya got one key skill under ya belt, maaate ! Ya got runs on the board… go for it!
Turnbull made the Gunns decision before the election was called to wedge Labor, but Labor has avoided the wedge by Garrett saying it “backs the government”. This would have been the proper stance to take if the election had been called, but we are in a phoney election cycle, which Labor has acknowledged by its own election “launch” and accordingly has committed itself to agreeing with the government on all controversial issues. This is strategic and avoids the dreaded “wedge” and puts the onus back on the government to justify itself. Besides there is nothing Labor can do until after the election, and I think it is likely that this decision will be reversed come a Labor win, despite Garrett’s appearing to be a “sell-out”. It’s Rudd’s decision to avoid the wedge, not Garrett’s.
Importantly, by avoiding the wedge, Labor has allowed the dust to settle quickly so that other emerging issues become visible, in this case the Abbott admission that the Commonwealth has been reneging on funding at the expense of the states.
In two days, two government ministers have inflicted serious wounds on themselves. First Hockey, then Abbott. Both Hockey and Abbott have seats that require a 10 per cent swing to go to Labor, and current indications are that both these ministers could lose their seats.
Abbott has practically admitted to lying. Is this a desperate attempt to salvage what little credibility he has in order to retain his seat, despite it being a kick in the guts to his own party? Or is Abbott carrying out the orders of his desperate leader who has given up the fight against Labor?
It’s puzzling, but it’s hilarious at the same time.
Everyone:
A wild guess. A few or even several seats to Family First if/when the next federal election is held [bye-bye Nationals, you had all your chances and you kept on fluffing them] …. followed by a landslide in a sudden election that is caused by a vote-of-no-confidence crisis.
Better start practicing how to read from a kneeling position.
Graham; Nationals voters won’t shift towards FF. If it looks like the Nationals are going to go down the toilet, the talk of a merger will be back and the Nationals may become a faction within the Liberal Party. Former “Nationals” will then be preselected to run for the rural seats, where the Liberals wouldn’t dare run people like Hockey or Ruddock. It has been pointed out that seats the Nationals lose to the Liberals are never won back from them. I don’t think Family First will be able to represent farmers in the way that the Nats do, because while they are both socially conservative with religious elements, Hillsong isn’t active in the bush. Family First are suburbanite Christians who have little experience with farmers’ issues.
Yeh, Family First don’t get on too well with the Nats, check out Danny’s history: [link]
They are pretty big on pumping up the Liberal’s tyres with God endorsing Howard and Costello [link] , and diverting preferences to them. So much for seperation of church and state.
I wonder if they will get more than 2% of the vote nationally?
On the election date, the clock is ticking. For 33 days notice, called on:
* October 8 for November 10
* October 15 for November 17
* October 22 for November 24
* October 29 for December 1
* November 5 for December 8.
The longer Howard takes to call the election, the more opportunities he gives his ministers to stick their feet in their mouths. What a conundrum for him!
Latest Morgan 61-39
ALP primary down 0.5% to 53.5%, Coalition down 0.5% to 35.5%
2PP ALP 61% (up 0.5%), L-NP 39% (down 0.5%).
running scared wonders JQ
The Australian Electoral Commission estimates 1.05 million eligible voters are not currently enrolled despite a $15 million ad campaign to warn of changes to the Electoral Act. This gives voters one days notice to sign up (in place of the previous seven) once the rodent fires the start gun. That disenfranchisement figure must be at least 10 percent of voters, which should worry the ALP.
A worst-case scenario analysis for the Libs has them losing 10 ministers’ seats, including JWH, in the upcoming election if figures continue trending away from them.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/10/05/1191091364601.html
Sam Clifford:
Thanks for your insights. Feel though that rural – or any other – issues would be of little interest to Family First except in achieving their main objective: the gaining of power; they are a break with the past in Australian politics.
Pablo:
This is a very dangerous situation. I suggest people are not enrolling out of laziness or because the penalties for not enrolling are inadequate. It is far more likely that far too many people have lost all faith in politics and certainly of their one vote having any influence whatsoever. “If voting made any difference, they would have made it illegal”. Despite all the trappings and all the flowery talk, Australia really is a banana republic now with, as someone said, “The best politicians money can buy”.
I say this is dangerous because the way is now wide open for any demogogue or any thug with money and charisma to inspire the populace into compliance or complicity with their own program of getting and holding power. The populace is fed up with the current shemozzle. For that we can thank the number-crunchers in the major parties. We can thank too those irresponsible duds pretending to be journalists and commentators who have trivialized and degraded politics in Australia.
This deja vu feeling is getting stronger each week – I’m referring of course to headlines which say ‘New Poll Suggests ALP Landslide”.
Now that the Poms have beaten Australia in the Rugby Union there would be no good reason why the election can not be called today, would there?
Wallabies lose.
What other excuses for delaying? Important business and legislation? Sounds about as convincing as Beazley’s “Too busy to comment…” every time a camera came on him during the Olympics.
Will he give up the Wallaby tracksuit for his morning walks? If he wants a winner, maybe he could switch to the Geelong convict stripes.
So Julia Gillard has been exposed as belonging to the Socialist Forum in the days when the ALP was a socialist party. As I recall it the Socialist Forum was part of the ALP.And now she hides it. So what?
So she knew some ex-Coms. Big deal. If I’ve got my Labor history right, most people in the ALP, until recently have known coms and ex-coms ever since 1917. I mean, about 6 months ago there was a photo of Kevin Rudd reading Green Left Weekly. It certainly doesn’t make him a member of Socialist Alliance or mean that he espouses any of our policies. The most well-known right wing troglodyte in Armidale reads GLW regularly.
What’s next from Abbott? Reds under the beds?
I mean, Give us a break!
People not being enrolled cannot possibly be sinister.
Having only one day to enroll can only affect those born 18 years before the day the election is called.
Everybody else should be enrolled, thanks to the impending election being one of the most publicised of all.
If by now someone can’t be bothered to enroll, the problem is what exactly?
Jason Koutsoukis, Age journalist, on how Helen Coonan has made it impossible for the Coalition to win the forthcoming election.
Money grafs:
Looking forward to Howard’s concession speech.
Only eight more sleeps until Federal Parliament sits again on 15 October 2007.
Unless the election is called.
AC Neilsen came early tonight: 56-44 with the Coalition now twelve points ahead in a dramatic reversal attributed to the budget bounce, Sunrisegate, Reingate, Bourkegate, Strippergate and voters outrage at Rudd’s inability to reel off the top marginal tax rate all suddenly sinking in.
As if.
Status Quo, folks, nothing to see here.
yes Leinad, but don’t forget the prediction from the Dear leader that the polls will only miraculously flip his way once he has called the election. I think it will probably be as reliable as his half a dozen other wrong predictions of bounces.
Talk about fall about laughing time!
Where is my ‘Fistful of Dollars Taxcuts’ that Howard always promises but never delivers? It doesn’t seem like an election until a tightly gripped wad of money is waved from a clenched fist.
In a political masterstroke Howard has dared the struggling Kevin Rudd to face him down in one more session of Parliament! The tension mounts as at last the Master sets the stage for the final showdown — gulling Rudd into a false sense of security all year he has now turned the tables with a range of knockout put-downs and far-thinking legislation all of which, senior party officials assure, are enough to wipe away any credibility Rudd has before dragging him into six weeks of action-packed electoral campaign annihilation, sealing victory in an amazing come from behind blitzkrieg. The Soviet forces will be pinned between Steiner and Weidling before Wenck drives the final lance through the Red dragon’s heart and at a stroke the Gates of Moscow will be open once more!
When he finally calls the election, we will all say, “Thank Christ!” and, recognizing that it was Howard that called the election, we will immediately come to the realization that Howard is Christ, and so good Christians all we will vote for our Messiah.
The so called “master strategist” has forgotten that Old Man Time is gradually revealing his hand. The election date options have narrowed to:
For 33 days notice, called on:
* October 15 for November 17
* October 22 for November 24 (punters favourite)
* October 29 for December 1
* November 5 for December 8.
Its looking more and more like Howard is backing into a corner and just clinging onto hope that something magical will give him a bounce. The only bounce that appears likely will be Howard out of office, and maybe Bennelong too.
24th Nov.
From a WA Lib senator’s mouth.
Community benefit redefined – Tory style
Another Morgan poll was published today.