As Mark mentioned, I’ll be blogging during the election period on Dobell, one of the key marginals that Labor need to win.
Currently, Dobell is held by the Ken Ticehurst for the Liberals with a margin of 4.8%. It stretches from North Gosford to Wyong and across from the beaches of Terrigal to Central Mangrove inland. The demographic is typical for the Central Coast with refugees from the Sydney property market, refugees from the daily grind in retiree and many families in the lower income brackets.
The big issue in Dobell will be Workchoices as many in the electorate are or will be affected by industrial relations policy. Some cursory polling by the Daily Telegraph in Dobell reflected a dissatisfaction with WorkChoice that will cost Howard votes.
Climate change is another issue that seems to resonate with the voters. However, this doesn’t mean an automatic vote for Labor or The Greens according to the Telegraph. Some voters may still side with the Liberals in spite of climate change concerns.
As for other issues, the Telegraph does engage in a little suburban snobbery with the mention of the ‘Westie” vote. To be fair, if you lived on the Central Coast you would understand why one bloke said that he would vote for Rudd because of his infamous New York excursion.
It will be very interesting to see what proper polling comes out of Dobell. The electorate could very well reflect the turning of Howard’s Battlers towards Rudd.
South of Dobell is another Central Coast electorate, Robertson. This is held by the Liberals with a margin of 6.9% but don’t be fooled into thinking this is a safe one for the Liberals. The same issues that run in Dobell will run in Robertson. While Labor is a chance, a negative is their candidate, Belinda Neil, wife of John Della Bosca, the NSW Education Minister. The focus of a bitter pre-selection battle back in 2001, there is a real sense she has been parachuted into the seat and more worthy candidates ignored.
However, if the resentment against WorkChoices is strong enough and the feeling that a change is needed then Labor could carry both Central Coast seats.
No mention of the Liberty and Democracy Party candidate?
http://ldp.org.au/Candidates.html
Shaun
completely agree that the candidates from Sussex Street stink but she claims to be a local and has a CV listing plenty of local work and other involvements.
Strangely though her partner is listed without any acknowledgement of his postion or role- just plain old John.
Bit like a situation where Maxine Mackew could list Bob Hogg as Robert I suppose.
Are any of the overlooked candidates running a spoiling campaign?
murph, at this stage I don’t know of any “spoiling” candidates. I’ll see what local flavour I can dig up during the week.
Amanda, I’m just waiting for the Australian branch of the Official Monster Raving Looney part to declare their candidate as a compliment to the LDP’s candidate.
The Bird! Holy Moley I’m ringing my sister post-haste just so she can vote [1] Bird!
Let me guess where his preferences are going:
(1) Shooters, rooters and cooters party, (2) No Darkies party, (3) Banks are evil party.
Vote for Bird! If you don’t vote Bird, you’re a LYING to YOURSELF!
Where’s the profile and the head shot? Dobell voters demand it!
My enduring memory of Belinda Neal is watching the footage of Barry Jones’ last ALP Federal Executive meeting as that party’s president. Smiles and applause and hugs all round, handshakes from the men and cheek-pecks for the ladies, even a few tears. When Jones came around to Neal, who was standing there with her arms out, he visibly flinched, shuddered and moved on.
I think Jones was hit-and-miss as both politician and thinker, but he demonstrated the correct procedure (and an utterly human reaction) when confronted with Belinda Neal.
Shaun, I grew up in Kincumber and will bet you that even Jim Lloyd will be part of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party this time next year, no matter what else happens. Neal is the ultimate backroom hack that should not be allowed anywhere near punters, let alone have her mug on corflutes and HTVs. She’s like one of those ugly fish you find deep in the ocean but which can’t survive close the sunlight – let alone surfers and other species. Even Jeanette Howard does not coast along on her husband’s name and title like she does, and if there’s anyone who can make Jeanette Howard look warm and witty, it’s Belinda Neal. Every morning that woman gets up and sprays herself with voter repellent.
Robertson should be one of those seats (like Makin or Bonner) that are so squarely in the Labor column that the Libs should just let it go, but Lloyd’s hard work and tenacity should be enough to see him home. The Liberals’ machine on the Central Coast is one of their best in NSW: they are not geniuses but there are myths to be made by taking on Mrs Della Bosca and beating her in the face of (what is for the Liberals nationally) dire adversity.
Neal will get the blame, and she’ll deserve it: but if you thought there was some arm-twisting and skullduggery in getting Neal up, wait until it comes time to lay blame. The next state election is in 2011, after this Federal election and the next one. There are four Central Coast seats in the NSW State Parliament and Labor currently hold 3 of these. Labor’s ability to win Robertson and Dobell in this election, and the next one, and the State election after that, will be impeded by the scar tissue built up in the past year or so. Onya Bel!
Neal would only get up in 2007 if the swing was even greater than it is – 1975 in reverse – and even then she’d squeak in and be gone next time. If Belinda Neal is the answer, the question is too ridiculous to even consider when voting.
Now there’s a fine entry for my well-crafted scorn thread.
Shaun you say that while climate change resonates with the voters it doesn’t necessarily imply a Labor victory. Insofar as that relates to water shortages can we see an Achilles heal in State Labor coming out with mobile desalination units as their solution and a fairly unpopular one at that!
Not even the offer of wind power to run them as with the Kurnell facility.
From memory the central coast was down to around 15% storage levels last summer. Scary stuff for thinking voters in a population of some 300000 you would presume. Maybe Belinda will be offering pedal power?
Campaiging in that area unfortunately confirms your diagnosis. It is beyond depressing because the ALP should ‘own’ that seat and Dobell. Nothing could better illustrate the debacle that is the ALP than the state of both Party organisation (virtually none) and Party talent (ditto) in those areas. Luckily, the voters in that area are being organised, but not of course by the candidate, since that kind of work requires an ability to listen, to take people seriously, and to work hard. These kinds of attributes are simply not required of the spouse of a Minister of State and past State party secretary.
Shaun, is the road collapse which killed five people in June having any anti-Labor effect d’you think? (or indeed anti-Liberal? though I’d assume it would be anti-Labor.)
suz, I think that the road collapse is seen more as a Gosford Council issue, and shouldn’t reflect to the Federal poll. Belinda Neal on the other hand is every bit of the negative that has been described. She’s been trying for any kind of a seat for years, and it’s a tragedy that she should have got this preselection. My vote was never going to swing, but I’ll be looking for someone (anyone!) else for a first preference. Stupid bloody ALP.
suz, Adam is correct re the road collapse. It is seen as a local council issue. Recent documents show that Gosford City Council knew of issues with the road and actually had quotes done for repairs back in 2004. Nothing was done.
pablo, water is an issue though the winter rains have the water supply back up to 23.5% now. Also, the Mardi-Mangrove link will help greatly.
Andrew E, gotta agree with tig. That is one mighty fine take down of Neal. It will be interesting to see if voter dislike of Neal be a bigger factor that local issues/WorkChoices. It it will be an amusing sideline for the election.
It’s only a “take down” if you’d over-elevated her in the first place, Shaun.
Could I recommend the seat-by-seat profiles on the “marginals” on pollbludger.com – these are a series of vignettes from across the nation where the ALP candidate is diligent, competent and likeable, has a modest score of runs on the board, and is absolutely romping it in over the poor incumbent who has to eat Howard’s shit and respond to questions like “Mummy, who is that man with the brown teeth?”.