I’ve been musing about what the latest Newspoll says about the economic policy battle (and what Paul Keating has had to say about the contemporary tasks of the state in governing the economy) and my thoughts have been posted at New Matilda’s PollieGraph.
25 Responses to “Paul Keating, Newspoll and economic policy”
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Just read newspoll results on the newscorp site, and am really astonished.
I never thought i would see the day that, howard would lose ground on both economic management and national security. And very early on in an election…
Will this phenomena last???
Hello all,
Did I hear the Newspoll 2PP figures correctly just now on the wireless? 58:42….. shurely shome mishtake, barman?
I think it’s all too complicated. Howard is smelling like a car door full of prawn heads, and people feel secure enough economically to toss him - whoever can legitimately take the credit for the prosperity.
Have to agree with Worst on this one.
PM’s age, length of incumbency , absence of elector experience with anything else all combine to leave the government adrift in this election.
Debates about economic reform from 20 years ago aren’t caturing anyone’s imagination or firing their enthusiam.
Quibbling about tax rates 5-6 years in the future- that is really not connecting with any immediate concerns.
The absence of any form of term limit on individuals presence or perhaps just certain roles therein be it in the House of Reps or Senate contributes to a feeling and I don’t think for many it is much more than something as vague as feelings , that change will be good.
The most interesting part of newspoll is the trend graphs on how the government’s lead on economic management and national security has been whittled down to almost nothing. This is very dangerous for the government considering that it was considered that their “ownership” of this policy terrain was their last areas of superiority over Labor.
The porkbarrelling is having no effect because nobody believes that Howard will be around to deliver.
… and people are getting used to it anyway … and there might even be a measure of belief that Rudd will probably deliver the barrels even if Howard won’t be around (”the gummint is the gummint”).
Oh cool. The Smirker and the Rooster will be having their own debate next Tuesday.
With the worm!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/23/2067041.htm
“Have to agree with Worst on this one.”
I don’t often hear those words. Thanks Honkers.
Never before heard Costello called “The Rooster”.
“Never before heard Costello called “The Roosterâ€?.”
He’d be more like a cock than a rooster, wouldn’t he?
Why are Swan and Costello debating? This is an example of the bloody obsession with “The Economy”.
If we’re going to have ministers in important portfolios debate each other, let’s see Gillard take on Hockey, or better yet, Garrett v. Turnbull (or best of all, Bob Brown versus either of them). What’s so special about the role of Treasurer all of a sudden?
If it’s so terminally essential to know who’s going to be comfortably running “The Economy”, then why do the Liberals steadfastly refuse to discuss who will be treasurer when/if Costello becomes Prime Minister? Why isn’t Rudd making more of that? Labor should be putting maximum pressure on getting the Liberals to name the treasurer after the fabled “hand over” from Howard to Costello.
I think that the reduction in the Government’s lead on economic management and national security is the result of people wanting to legitimise their vote for Rudd. People believe that they are rational and therefore would not vote in a Government that they do not believe could do the job. So, having decided to vote for Rudd, they now need to believe in his ability.
Bit of question begging there Dave. Any reason why voters might not simply think that Labor will do a better job on the economy and security?
On second thoughts maybe Costello is more of a capon
anthony: There are no doubt plenty of voters who do believe that Labor will be superior when it comes to the economy and security, however I firmly believe that the increase in Rudd’s numbers in these areas are a result of the ‘Rudd Wets’ getting everything in order before casting their vote. I think that there’s been a little bit of cognitive dissonance at play and that’s being dealt with as the election draws near.
I’ve never given much credence to the ’soft Labor’ vote that so many commentators have crapped on about, I think that a lot of voters have decided to vote for Rudd and are now working to justify that.
It’s easy to tell a pollster that you’re voting for Rudd, but believe that Howard is the superior economic manager when there’s nothing on the line, but once the election is called and you know you are going to have to vote you want to be able to believe that you are acting in a rational manner. Therefore you change your inconsistent beliefs, eg. that Rudd is not the best economic manager, to match the beliefs that you hold most strongly, ie. that you want to vote Labor. It follows that Rudd’s numbers in these areas should end up very close to his preferred Prime Minister numbers by election day.
People rarely understand why they make a decision, most of the reasons that they come up with are thought of after they are beyond the point of being swayed anyway. I think that this is simply being played out in the polls at the moment.
Best economic manager! Such an empty boast. And a rubbery trope, too.
I agree with Dave. The accepted wisdom on who’s The Best Economic Mgr would lag any shift in people’s preference for Prime Minister by some way.
Sheesus Dave are you sure you’re not from The Wodonga!
Sorry zorronsky, The Wodonga what? Definitely north of the river here.
Thinking over these comments it might be that we are witnessing choices about politicians made with belief more than experience, with hope more than fear.
All quite positive stuff and probably not something that will be influenced by any form of concern about economic performance. Or negative and attack ad campaigns ,rather they might exaggerate the change occurring.
Thanks Dave, nicely explained.
And on the flip side, as support drops for Howard there’ll be less people needing to justify liking him for the economy and security.
If Newspoll is showing 58-42, then the Morgan poll will probably show 62-38.
boredinHK: I think that what you have described is very much the ‘It’s Time’ phenomenon, people want change even if they aren’t completely sure why.
anthony: I blogged about this phenomena yesterday, with a snapshot of the figures.
Howard’s numbers have already dropped significantly in this area. Firstly the punters moved into the undecided column and then they started leaking to Rudd. Have a look for the full newspoll figures to see how badly Howard has dropped in this measure since last year.
Via Poll Bludger re Interest Rates Announcement.